Coronavirus prep
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Theoldguy1 wrote: »Theoldguy1 wrote: »HawkingRadiation wrote: »greyhoundwalker wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Not everyone uses the media. I informed someone about to take a longer road trip that there were pressures on the fuel system caused by a shortage of drivers not poor fuel levels and he had not heard. People filling up is happening, so petrol stations are out of fuel till their next delivery arrives.
I observed a stream of traffic going to one supermarket yesterday which was out of fuel till they get a delivery. At a service station near a traffic light controlled crossing cars were backing up to the lights and others were trying to cross lanes. Then at the nearest supermarket it was impossible to get into the carpark for food, for the line of vehicles going to the pumps. Its outrageous. Given a week I would hope those who actually use less fuel will not be filling up again leaving more for more responsible persons.
???
In the UK we have a shortage of fuel (petrol/diesel) caused by shortage of long haul lorry drivers. People here are behaving like they did with toilet rolls back at the beginning of the pandemic. Queuing up to squeeze a tiny bit in their tanks to keep them full, causing long tailbacks and blocking roads and entrances. Luckily I already filled up last week and if I’m careful what I have will last me 2-3 weeks when hopefully people have calmed down.
Time for electric cars!
Just charge them up at home.
I've been driving electric for two years now. I don't miss the gas station stops in the freezing cold, or everytime I'm already late. lol
The US doesn't have the raw materials needed for batteries. Also poor chip supplies. Electric cars use 10X the number of chips conventional vehicles do.
Electric vehicles are a novelty unit these issues are addressed.
And infrastructure. The only charging station I've ever seen in my life is at my doctor's office. I live in an old neighborhood near downtown in a pretty large city. Whether you're in a house or an apartment, it's not likely you have a garage to put a charging outlet in. I can't think of anyone I know in the neighborhood that even has a garage, much less one you could park a modern car in. It's all street parking and you'd need one heck of an extension cord to charge a car! Electric cars are intriguing, but not enough to banish myself to outer suburbia where I'd have the space to plug it in
There's a surprising amount in the US: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a30031153/ev-charging-guide/
Apparently as of March 2020, there were 1,645 in the Chicago metro area (where I live), and there are more now. I figured there had to be plenty although I haven't personally noticed them, since I see plenty of electric cars. We are only the 5th ranked metro area in number of chargers.
There are 1.7M vehicles registered in Cook County, which isn't all of the Chicago metro area. There is a lot of expensive work needed be for EVs could even be a consideration for a small part of the registered vehicles.
But EVs already are a small part of the registered vehicles. I see them all the time. I'm not expecting everyone to switch out their existing cars for an EV. (I don't currently have any desire for an EV, as I don't drive that much and am perfectly happy with my hybrid.)
The point is that there are lots of charging stations already, so someone who gets one is likely (at least in a number of areas) to be near more than they realize. I haven't sought them out, but they are in existence near me, although I'd not bothered to look around to find one, so hadn't realized until I looked them up.
Also, a large number of vehicles registered in Cook County (not to mention non Cook parts of Chicago metro) are going to belong to people with garages (I live in Chicago proper and have a garage), and the charging stations seem to be important for those who have EVs and nowhere at home to charge them). Like I noted before, approximately 80% of charging is at home.2 -
Paywall0
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https://youtu.be/_ItkYhFiGBI. As they say time changes all things. It seems like reality is starting to sink into the world's mind how lockdowns are hurting the poor and children the most while none of the vaccines have a long-term pandemic stopping effect and most of the world is not going to be vaccinated. We had to give vaccines a shot. They saved many as we learned better how to treat/live with it.
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Covid will likely be endemic (this is not news, people have been acknowledging that for a while, and it is different than a continuing pandemic), but that's not such a terrible thing in the long run and it certainly doesn't mean that vaccines did not work/should now be dismissed as a failure.
A couple of pieces I found reasonable and helpful:
https://cspicenter.org/blog/waronscience/why-covid-19-is-here-to-stay-and-why-you-shouldnt-worry-about-it/
"Sooner or later, as a result of both infections and vaccination, virtually everyone will develop some immunity against SARS-CoV-2. This immunity will not always prevent infection, but even if someone who has been vaccinated or previously infected gets reinfected, they will typically develop only a mild form of the disease, because while still not perfect the protection against severe illness that immunity confers is better and doesn’t wane as quickly as protection against infection. Even the protection against severe illness will likely wane after a while, but this won’t really be a problem because, since immunity is much less effective against infection and new people are going to get born who are completely susceptible because they have never been infected yet and won’t be vaccinated, the virus will continue to circulate so most people will be reinfected every few years. Most people see that as a bug, but in a way, it may actually be a feature. Indeed, those reinfections will typically be mild because immunity protects well against severe illness, but they will update immunity and therefore ensure that, the next time someone is infected, this reinfection is also mild....
Eventually most people will have a primary infection when they’re children, which is perfectly harmless and, together with subsequent infections, will protect them against severe illness later, when infection would be more dangerous if they didn’t have any immunity. Since once people have immunity, infections are generally mild, most people likely won’t even bother getting vaccinated because the probability of becoming seriously ill due to SARS-CoV-2 will be very small since 1) the risk of getting infected in the first place will be low because immunity still offers some protection against infection and the virus will circulate much less after it has become endemic and 2) even if they are infected they will typically be well protected against severe illness. Elderly people will be the exception because their immune system is compromised, so for them it will make sense to get a vaccine booster on a regular basis and I expect that it’s what most of them will do, as they already do against the flu. Once it has become endemic, which again will take a few years or even decades for the transition to be fully over, SARS-CoV-2 will become just another respiratory virus and will never cause the damages it has just wrought on us again. At last, it will have become “just like the flu”, except that it probably won’t be as bad as the flu if only because immunity will be more effective and longer-lasting...."
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/08/how-we-live-coronavirus-forever/619783/
"The current spikes in cases and deaths are the result of a novel coronavirus meeting naive immune systems. When enough people have gained some immunity through either vaccination or infection—preferably vaccination—the coronavirus will transition to what epidemiologists call “endemic.” It won’t be eliminated, but it won’t upend our lives anymore.
With that blanket of initial immunity laid down, there will be fewer hospitalizations and fewer deaths from COVID-19. Boosters can periodically re-up immunity too. Cases may continue to rise and fall in this scenario, perhaps seasonally, but the worst outcomes will be avoided.
We don’t know exactly how the four common-cold coronaviruses first came to infect humans, but some have speculated that at least one also began with a pandemic. If immunity to the new coronavirus wanes like it does with these others, then it will keep causing reinfections and breakthrough infections, more and more of them over time, but still mild enough. We’ll have to adjust our thinking about COVID-19 too. The coronavirus is not something we can avoid forever; we have to prepare for the possibility that we will all get exposed one way or another. “This is something we’re going to have to live with,” says Richard Webby, an infectious-disease researcher at St. Jude. “And so long as it’s not impacting health care as a whole, then I think we can.” The coronavirus will no longer be novel—to our immune systems or our society....
The transition to endemic COVID-19 is also a psychological one. When everyone has some immunity, a COVID-19 diagnosis becomes as routine as diagnosis of strep or flu—not good news, but not a reason for particular fear or worry or embarrassment either. That means unlearning a year of messaging that said COVID-19 was not just a flu. If the confusion around the CDC dropping mask recommendations for the vaccinated earlier this summer is any indication, this transition to endemicity might be psychologically rocky. Reopening felt too fast for some, too slow for others. “People are having a hard time understanding one another’s risk tolerance,” says Julie Downs, a psychologist who studies health decisions at Carnegie Mellon University."
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Yeah learning to live with endemic Covid is going to be interesting. I have been home sick all week with a bad cold/flu (not Covid) - I need to go back into the office next week but I have a really bad cough which experience tells me will probably linger for a while. Not sure what to do - post viral cough can linger for weeks - and I can't stay home that long.9
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It seems like a wild card with endemic Covid is figuring out long-haul Covid (and any other downstream issues that may emerge post-infection longer term, if some do).
On another Covid subtopic, it seems like the new Merck Coronavirus treatment that's all over the news could turn out to be a helpful thing. Just to pick out one random mainstream source:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/mercks-covid-19-pill-cuts-risk-death-hospitalization-by-50-study-2021-10-01/8 -
The transition to endemic COVID-19 is also a psychological one. When everyone has some immunity, a COVID-19 diagnosis becomes as routine as diagnosis of strep or flu—not good news, but not a reason for particular fear or worry or embarrassment either. That means unlearning a year of messaging that said COVID-19 was not just a flu. If the confusion around the CDC dropping mask recommendations for the vaccinated earlier this summer is any indication, this transition to endemicity might be psychologically rocky. Reopening felt too fast for some, too slow for others. “People are having a hard time understanding one another’s risk tolerance,” says Julie Downs, a psychologist who studies health decisions at Carnegie Mellon University."
It will be interesting to see how that all plays out. It's been difficult enough for health authorities to convince some folks that Covid needed to be taken seriously but for others it has instilled genuine terror. I think that will be a difficult switch to flip.
One of the grocery stores where I shop frequently is still disinfecting the checkout belt between customers, despite the change in messaging about surface contamination quite a while back.
On the other hand, we've all learned some useful practices about disease prevention that will hopefully serve to reduce germ transmission going forward. One of my coworkers who goes into child care facilities frequently caught every passing bug and was constantly sick, in one year she had strep twice and pneumonia once. She says she will continue mask-wearing indefinitely.7 -
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kshama2001 wrote: »
Don't you expect Australia to become red hot when they open up like most western nations are doing?5 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »kshama2001 wrote: »
Don't you expect Australia to become red hot when they open up like most western nations are doing?
Not if everyone's vaxxed.7 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »kshama2001 wrote: »
Don't you expect Australia to become red hot when they open up like most western nations are doing?
No - because they will open incrementally and temporary state borders will be re implemented as neccesary, that is the pattern now
And because more people will be vaccinated by then, as opposed to Florida where most of the deaths were pre vaccine/ unvacvinated people
And because it is extremely unlikely unvaccinated people will be able to enter from other countries.13 -
Covid will likely be endemic (this is not news, people have been acknowledging that for a while, and it is different than a continuing pandemic), but that's not such a terrible thing in the long run and it certainly doesn't mean that vaccines did not work/should now be dismissed as a failure.
A couple of pieces I found reasonable and helpful:
https://cspicenter.org/blog/waronscience/why-covid-19-is-here-to-stay-and-why-you-shouldnt-worry-about-it/
"Sooner or later, as a result of both infections and vaccination, virtually everyone will develop some immunity against SARS-CoV-2. This immunity will not always prevent infection, but even if someone who has been vaccinated or previously infected gets reinfected, they will typically develop only a mild form of the disease, because while still not perfect the protection against severe illness that immunity confers is better and doesn’t wane as quickly as protection against infection. Even the protection against severe illness will likely wane after a while, but this won’t really be a problem because, since immunity is much less effective against infection and new people are going to get born who are completely susceptible because they have never been infected yet and won’t be vaccinated, the virus will continue to circulate so most people will be reinfected every few years. Most people see that as a bug, but in a way, it may actually be a feature. Indeed, those reinfections will typically be mild because immunity protects well against severe illness, but they will update immunity and therefore ensure that, the next time someone is infected, this reinfection is also mild....
Eventually most people will have a primary infection when they’re children, which is perfectly harmless and, together with subsequent infections, will protect them against severe illness later, when infection would be more dangerous if they didn’t have any immunity. Since once people have immunity, infections are generally mild, most people likely won’t even bother getting vaccinated because the probability of becoming seriously ill due to SARS-CoV-2 will be very small since 1) the risk of getting infected in the first place will be low because immunity still offers some protection against infection and the virus will circulate much less after it has become endemic and 2) even if they are infected they will typically be well protected against severe illness. Elderly people will be the exception because their immune system is compromised, so for them it will make sense to get a vaccine booster on a regular basis and I expect that it’s what most of them will do, as they already do against the flu. Once it has become endemic, which again will take a few years or even decades for the transition to be fully over, SARS-CoV-2 will become just another respiratory virus and will never cause the damages it has just wrought on us again. At last, it will have become “just like the flu”, except that it probably won’t be as bad as the flu if only because immunity will be more effective and longer-lasting...."
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/08/how-we-live-coronavirus-forever/619783/
"The current spikes in cases and deaths are the result of a novel coronavirus meeting naive immune systems. When enough people have gained some immunity through either vaccination or infection—preferably vaccination—the coronavirus will transition to what epidemiologists call “endemic.” It won’t be eliminated, but it won’t upend our lives anymore.
With that blanket of initial immunity laid down, there will be fewer hospitalizations and fewer deaths from COVID-19. Boosters can periodically re-up immunity too. Cases may continue to rise and fall in this scenario, perhaps seasonally, but the worst outcomes will be avoided.
We don’t know exactly how the four common-cold coronaviruses first came to infect humans, but some have speculated that at least one also began with a pandemic. If immunity to the new coronavirus wanes like it does with these others, then it will keep causing reinfections and breakthrough infections, more and more of them over time, but still mild enough. We’ll have to adjust our thinking about COVID-19 too. The coronavirus is not something we can avoid forever; we have to prepare for the possibility that we will all get exposed one way or another. “This is something we’re going to have to live with,” says Richard Webby, an infectious-disease researcher at St. Jude. “And so long as it’s not impacting health care as a whole, then I think we can.” The coronavirus will no longer be novel—to our immune systems or our society....
The transition to endemic COVID-19 is also a psychological one. When everyone has some immunity, a COVID-19 diagnosis becomes as routine as diagnosis of strep or flu—not good news, but not a reason for particular fear or worry or embarrassment either. That means unlearning a year of messaging that said COVID-19 was not just a flu. If the confusion around the CDC dropping mask recommendations for the vaccinated earlier this summer is any indication, this transition to endemicity might be psychologically rocky. Reopening felt too fast for some, too slow for others. “People are having a hard time understanding one another’s risk tolerance,” says Julie Downs, a psychologist who studies health decisions at Carnegie Mellon University."
I apologize, I didn't get to click thru to read the article yet, but I don't think the messaging will be that difficult because I don't think this flip is going to just happen one day. As long as a large enough percentage of the world pop is unvaxxed, we will have rolling spikes of new variants that may challenge the immune systems of different people. Anytime a new variant hits a less wealthy area, a lot of people are going to get very sick. If the antivirals they are working on come thru it will help, but we all know what healthcare access is like in the US.
Anyway, I'd guess it'll be a gradual thing. Localized spikes leading to mask alerts and a death toll will become less and less common. We may possibly be on alert for awhile when a new variant arrives from a not well-vaxed part of the world, like the ebola scares. And just because it becomes endemic doesn't mean it isn't a serious risk for an unvaxxed person or a compromised immune system anytime soon.
If the common cold coronaviruses started as an epidemic as suspected, it happened a very long time ago. It could have taken generations to go from a scary fatal disease to an annoyance. We're talking about eventually.
Also, I'm not really comforted by the idea that it'll be "just like the flu" like some people are. Thousands of people in the US die from the flu every year, and thousands more spend weeks, and a lot of healthcare dollars, getting over it. Adding another circulating virus like that just means greater odds that at risk people will catch something nasty and possibly fatal. Vaccinations and hand hygiene will be doubly important.
Don't mean to be a negative nelly! I definitely hear multiple virologists and public health officials talking about us "learning to live with" covid-19, but it's always centered on vaccinations. The road to herd immunity, endemic covid-19, or some combo of the two, without increased vaccinations, comes from too many more people dying. There have already been cities that have had a second wave, and while it might not have been as bad as the first, it was still bad. I don't think there's any reason to assume there may not be bad third waves, just smaller and slightly more manageable for hospitals. I hope it petering out happens sooner than it feels like it will!12 -
The transition to endemic COVID-19 is also a psychological one. When everyone has some immunity, a COVID-19 diagnosis becomes as routine as diagnosis of strep or flu—not good news, but not a reason for particular fear or worry or embarrassment either. That means unlearning a year of messaging that said COVID-19 was not just a flu. If the confusion around the CDC dropping mask recommendations for the vaccinated earlier this summer is any indication, this transition to endemicity might be psychologically rocky. Reopening felt too fast for some, too slow for others. “People are having a hard time understanding one another’s risk tolerance,” says Julie Downs, a psychologist who studies health decisions at Carnegie Mellon University."
It will be interesting to see how that all plays out. It's been difficult enough for health authorities to convince some folks that Covid needed to be taken seriously but for others it has instilled genuine terror. I think that will be a difficult switch to flip.
One of the grocery stores where I shop frequently is still disinfecting the checkout belt between customers, despite the change in messaging about surface contamination quite a while back.
On the other hand, we've all learned some useful practices about disease prevention that will hopefully serve to reduce germ transmission going forward. One of my coworkers who goes into child care facilities frequently caught every passing bug and was constantly sick, in one year she had strep twice and pneumonia once. She says she will continue mask-wearing indefinitely.
This actually seems like a best practice without regard to COVID. One customer may put packed raw meat and poultry on the belt, with no knowledge of whether it might have rested in liquid from a leaking adjacent pack or be leaking itself, and the next person might put foods that will be eaten raw on the belt.12 -
With the flu, it's usually the very old and the very young who die. That will likely be the case for Covid as it continues.
I had a long conversation today with a neighbor who has Covid, as does her husband. He just got out of the hospital for the second time. He was on a ventilator but then they sent him home while he still had a fever of 103. The next day he passed out and had to be taken back to the hospital. She said they hadn't gotten the vaccine because they never go anywhere, so she didn't feel like she was likely to get exposed. She does go to Walmart, which is almost entirely maskless. She went there to pick up medicine for her husband after she had tested positive for Covid. I wonder if she was wearing a mask? I doubt it. She also believes that Covid is being spread by airplanes flying overhead, so who knows what other conspiracy theories they believe about the virus.19 -
Yeah learning to live with endemic Covid is going to be interesting. I have been home sick all week with a bad cold/flu (not Covid) - I need to go back into the office next week but I have a really bad cough which experience tells me will probably linger for a while. Not sure what to do - post viral cough can linger for weeks - and I can't stay home that long.
I do think we are going to have to stop relying on symptoms. They've mentioned on TWIV that it seems clear vaccinated people are only contagious for a short time, if at all. They even think the initial 2 week quarantine for unvaxxed positive tests is probably more than necessary. But better access to cheaper tests would sure help too.
And as someone whose been about as cautious about covid as anyone, I don't think twice about hearing someone in the office coughing. I'm vaccinated and they aren't coughing in my face, so I'm not too concerned.
Does your work have rules about employees with symptoms? Can you get tested to be sure?
Regardless, hope you feel well soon!7 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »As they say time changes all things. It seems like reality is starting to sink into the world's mind how lockdowns are hurting the poor and children the most while none of the vaccines have a long-term pandemic stopping effect and most of the world is not going to be vaccinated. We had to give vaccines a shot. They saved many as we learned better how to treat/live with it.
This is an ongoing effort. It would be literally impossible to vaccinate 90% of the world in one year, and anyone who suggests that not getting that done means we failed is fear mongering. The vaccines are a historic scientific achievement and continue to slow down the pandemic. It's up to us to continue getting people their shots.
Pandemics don't stop like slamming a door shut. They slow down as vaccination spreads and eventually slows to a trickle or stop. It was unrealistic to think a few months of vaccinations and everything would be fine, and the science never said it would be.12 -
lynn_glenmont wrote: »The transition to endemic COVID-19 is also a psychological one. When everyone has some immunity, a COVID-19 diagnosis becomes as routine as diagnosis of strep or flu—not good news, but not a reason for particular fear or worry or embarrassment either. That means unlearning a year of messaging that said COVID-19 was not just a flu. If the confusion around the CDC dropping mask recommendations for the vaccinated earlier this summer is any indication, this transition to endemicity might be psychologically rocky. Reopening felt too fast for some, too slow for others. “People are having a hard time understanding one another’s risk tolerance,” says Julie Downs, a psychologist who studies health decisions at Carnegie Mellon University."
It will be interesting to see how that all plays out. It's been difficult enough for health authorities to convince some folks that Covid needed to be taken seriously but for others it has instilled genuine terror. I think that will be a difficult switch to flip.
One of the grocery stores where I shop frequently is still disinfecting the checkout belt between customers, despite the change in messaging about surface contamination quite a while back.
On the other hand, we've all learned some useful practices about disease prevention that will hopefully serve to reduce germ transmission going forward. One of my coworkers who goes into child care facilities frequently caught every passing bug and was constantly sick, in one year she had strep twice and pneumonia once. She says she will continue mask-wearing indefinitely.
This actually seems like a best practice without regard to COVID. One customer may put packed raw meat and poultry on the belt, with no knowledge of whether it might have rested in liquid from a leaking adjacent pack or be leaking itself, and the next person might put foods that will be eaten raw on the belt.
It does create a helluva long queue at the checkouts though. And I'm not wild about my foods-that-will-be-eaten-raw coming into contact with chemical disinfectants (I've put purchases down on a wet belt several times) that probably aren't safe for consumption.4 -
Covid will likely be endemic (this is not news, people have been acknowledging that for a while, and it is different than a continuing pandemic), but that's not such a terrible thing in the long run and it certainly doesn't mean that vaccines did not work/should now be dismissed as a failure.
A couple of pieces I found reasonable and helpful:
https://cspicenter.org/blog/waronscience/why-covid-19-is-here-to-stay-and-why-you-shouldnt-worry-about-it/
"Sooner or later, as a result of both infections and vaccination, virtually everyone will develop some immunity against SARS-CoV-2. This immunity will not always prevent infection, but even if someone who has been vaccinated or previously infected gets reinfected, they will typically develop only a mild form of the disease, because while still not perfect the protection against severe illness that immunity confers is better and doesn’t wane as quickly as protection against infection. Even the protection against severe illness will likely wane after a while, but this won’t really be a problem because, since immunity is much less effective against infection and new people are going to get born who are completely susceptible because they have never been infected yet and won’t be vaccinated, the virus will continue to circulate so most people will be reinfected every few years. Most people see that as a bug, but in a way, it may actually be a feature. Indeed, those reinfections will typically be mild because immunity protects well against severe illness, but they will update immunity and therefore ensure that, the next time someone is infected, this reinfection is also mild....
Eventually most people will have a primary infection when they’re children, which is perfectly harmless and, together with subsequent infections, will protect them against severe illness later, when infection would be more dangerous if they didn’t have any immunity. Since once people have immunity, infections are generally mild, most people likely won’t even bother getting vaccinated because the probability of becoming seriously ill due to SARS-CoV-2 will be very small since 1) the risk of getting infected in the first place will be low because immunity still offers some protection against infection and the virus will circulate much less after it has become endemic and 2) even if they are infected they will typically be well protected against severe illness. Elderly people will be the exception because their immune system is compromised, so for them it will make sense to get a vaccine booster on a regular basis and I expect that it’s what most of them will do, as they already do against the flu. Once it has become endemic, which again will take a few years or even decades for the transition to be fully over, SARS-CoV-2 will become just another respiratory virus and will never cause the damages it has just wrought on us again. At last, it will have become “just like the flu”, except that it probably won’t be as bad as the flu if only because immunity will be more effective and longer-lasting...."
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/08/how-we-live-coronavirus-forever/619783/
"The current spikes in cases and deaths are the result of a novel coronavirus meeting naive immune systems. When enough people have gained some immunity through either vaccination or infection—preferably vaccination—the coronavirus will transition to what epidemiologists call “endemic.” It won’t be eliminated, but it won’t upend our lives anymore.
With that blanket of initial immunity laid down, there will be fewer hospitalizations and fewer deaths from COVID-19. Boosters can periodically re-up immunity too. Cases may continue to rise and fall in this scenario, perhaps seasonally, but the worst outcomes will be avoided.
We don’t know exactly how the four common-cold coronaviruses first came to infect humans, but some have speculated that at least one also began with a pandemic. If immunity to the new coronavirus wanes like it does with these others, then it will keep causing reinfections and breakthrough infections, more and more of them over time, but still mild enough. We’ll have to adjust our thinking about COVID-19 too. The coronavirus is not something we can avoid forever; we have to prepare for the possibility that we will all get exposed one way or another. “This is something we’re going to have to live with,” says Richard Webby, an infectious-disease researcher at St. Jude. “And so long as it’s not impacting health care as a whole, then I think we can.” The coronavirus will no longer be novel—to our immune systems or our society....
The transition to endemic COVID-19 is also a psychological one. When everyone has some immunity, a COVID-19 diagnosis becomes as routine as diagnosis of strep or flu—not good news, but not a reason for particular fear or worry or embarrassment either. That means unlearning a year of messaging that said COVID-19 was not just a flu. If the confusion around the CDC dropping mask recommendations for the vaccinated earlier this summer is any indication, this transition to endemicity might be psychologically rocky. Reopening felt too fast for some, too slow for others. “People are having a hard time understanding one another’s risk tolerance,” says Julie Downs, a psychologist who studies health decisions at Carnegie Mellon University."
I apologize, I didn't get to click thru to read the article yet, but I don't think the messaging will be that difficult because I don't think this flip is going to just happen one day. As long as a large enough percentage of the world pop is unvaxxed, we will have rolling spikes of new variants that may challenge the immune systems of different people. Anytime a new variant hits a less wealthy area, a lot of people are going to get very sick. If the antivirals they are working on come thru it will help, but we all know what healthcare access is like in the US.
Anyway, I'd guess it'll be a gradual thing. Localized spikes leading to mask alerts and a death toll will become less and less common. We may possibly be on alert for awhile when a new variant arrives from a not well-vaxed part of the world, like the ebola scares. And just because it becomes endemic doesn't mean it isn't a serious risk for an unvaxxed person or a compromised immune system anytime soon.
If the common cold coronaviruses started as an epidemic as suspected, it happened a very long time ago. It could have taken generations to go from a scary fatal disease to an annoyance. We're talking about eventually.
Also, I'm not really comforted by the idea that it'll be "just like the flu" like some people are. Thousands of people in the US die from the flu every year, and thousands more spend weeks, and a lot of healthcare dollars, getting over it. Adding another circulating virus like that just means greater odds that at risk people will catch something nasty and possibly fatal. Vaccinations and hand hygiene will be doubly important.
Don't mean to be a negative nelly! I definitely hear multiple virologists and public health officials talking about us "learning to live with" covid-19, but it's always centered on vaccinations. The road to herd immunity, endemic covid-19, or some combo of the two, without increased vaccinations, comes from too many more people dying. There have already been cities that have had a second wave, and while it might not have been as bad as the first, it was still bad. I don't think there's any reason to assume there may not be bad third waves, just smaller and slightly more manageable for hospitals. I hope it petering out happens sooner than it feels like it will!
I disagree with other things too, but I just want to be clear that both articles I posted assumed vaccines as part of the way covid-19 becomes endemic vs pandemic and not so much of a threat. Not sure why the response is to suggest the pieces are anti vax. My main reason for posting was to combat a vax doesn't work post.6 -
spiriteagle99 wrote: »With the flu, it's usually the very old and the very young who die. That will likely be the case for Covid as it continues.
The old, so far the very young are the least susceptible to covid.
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Covid will likely be endemic (this is not news, people have been acknowledging that for a while, and it is different than a continuing pandemic), but that's not such a terrible thing in the long run and it certainly doesn't mean that vaccines did not work/should now be dismissed as a failure.
A couple of pieces I found reasonable and helpful:
https://cspicenter.org/blog/waronscience/why-covid-19-is-here-to-stay-and-why-you-shouldnt-worry-about-it/
"Sooner or later, as a result of both infections and vaccination, virtually everyone will develop some immunity against SARS-CoV-2. This immunity will not always prevent infection, but even if someone who has been vaccinated or previously infected gets reinfected, they will typically develop only a mild form of the disease, because while still not perfect the protection against severe illness that immunity confers is better and doesn’t wane as quickly as protection against infection. Even the protection against severe illness will likely wane after a while, but this won’t really be a problem because, since immunity is much less effective against infection and new people are going to get born who are completely susceptible because they have never been infected yet and won’t be vaccinated, the virus will continue to circulate so most people will be reinfected every few years. Most people see that as a bug, but in a way, it may actually be a feature. Indeed, those reinfections will typically be mild because immunity protects well against severe illness, but they will update immunity and therefore ensure that, the next time someone is infected, this reinfection is also mild....
Eventually most people will have a primary infection when they’re children, which is perfectly harmless and, together with subsequent infections, will protect them against severe illness later, when infection would be more dangerous if they didn’t have any immunity. Since once people have immunity, infections are generally mild, most people likely won’t even bother getting vaccinated because the probability of becoming seriously ill due to SARS-CoV-2 will be very small since 1) the risk of getting infected in the first place will be low because immunity still offers some protection against infection and the virus will circulate much less after it has become endemic and 2) even if they are infected they will typically be well protected against severe illness. Elderly people will be the exception because their immune system is compromised, so for them it will make sense to get a vaccine booster on a regular basis and I expect that it’s what most of them will do, as they already do against the flu. Once it has become endemic, which again will take a few years or even decades for the transition to be fully over, SARS-CoV-2 will become just another respiratory virus and will never cause the damages it has just wrought on us again. At last, it will have become “just like the flu”, except that it probably won’t be as bad as the flu if only because immunity will be more effective and longer-lasting...."
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/08/how-we-live-coronavirus-forever/619783/
"The current spikes in cases and deaths are the result of a novel coronavirus meeting naive immune systems. When enough people have gained some immunity through either vaccination or infection—preferably vaccination—the coronavirus will transition to what epidemiologists call “endemic.” It won’t be eliminated, but it won’t upend our lives anymore.
With that blanket of initial immunity laid down, there will be fewer hospitalizations and fewer deaths from COVID-19. Boosters can periodically re-up immunity too. Cases may continue to rise and fall in this scenario, perhaps seasonally, but the worst outcomes will be avoided.
We don’t know exactly how the four common-cold coronaviruses first came to infect humans, but some have speculated that at least one also began with a pandemic. If immunity to the new coronavirus wanes like it does with these others, then it will keep causing reinfections and breakthrough infections, more and more of them over time, but still mild enough. We’ll have to adjust our thinking about COVID-19 too. The coronavirus is not something we can avoid forever; we have to prepare for the possibility that we will all get exposed one way or another. “This is something we’re going to have to live with,” says Richard Webby, an infectious-disease researcher at St. Jude. “And so long as it’s not impacting health care as a whole, then I think we can.” The coronavirus will no longer be novel—to our immune systems or our society....
The transition to endemic COVID-19 is also a psychological one. When everyone has some immunity, a COVID-19 diagnosis becomes as routine as diagnosis of strep or flu—not good news, but not a reason for particular fear or worry or embarrassment either. That means unlearning a year of messaging that said COVID-19 was not just a flu. If the confusion around the CDC dropping mask recommendations for the vaccinated earlier this summer is any indication, this transition to endemicity might be psychologically rocky. Reopening felt too fast for some, too slow for others. “People are having a hard time understanding one another’s risk tolerance,” says Julie Downs, a psychologist who studies health decisions at Carnegie Mellon University."
I apologize, I didn't get to click thru to read the article yet, but I don't think the messaging will be that difficult because I don't think this flip is going to just happen one day. As long as a large enough percentage of the world pop is unvaxxed, we will have rolling spikes of new variants that may challenge the immune systems of different people. Anytime a new variant hits a less wealthy area, a lot of people are going to get very sick. If the antivirals they are working on come thru it will help, but we all know what healthcare access is like in the US.
Anyway, I'd guess it'll be a gradual thing. Localized spikes leading to mask alerts and a death toll will become less and less common. We may possibly be on alert for awhile when a new variant arrives from a not well-vaxed part of the world, like the ebola scares. And just because it becomes endemic doesn't mean it isn't a serious risk for an unvaxxed person or a compromised immune system anytime soon.
If the common cold coronaviruses started as an epidemic as suspected, it happened a very long time ago. It could have taken generations to go from a scary fatal disease to an annoyance. We're talking about eventually.
Also, I'm not really comforted by the idea that it'll be "just like the flu" like some people are. Thousands of people in the US die from the flu every year, and thousands more spend weeks, and a lot of healthcare dollars, getting over it. Adding another circulating virus like that just means greater odds that at risk people will catch something nasty and possibly fatal. Vaccinations and hand hygiene will be doubly important.
Don't mean to be a negative nelly! I definitely hear multiple virologists and public health officials talking about us "learning to live with" covid-19, but it's always centered on vaccinations. The road to herd immunity, endemic covid-19, or some combo of the two, without increased vaccinations, comes from too many more people dying. There have already been cities that have had a second wave, and while it might not have been as bad as the first, it was still bad. I don't think there's any reason to assume there may not be bad third waves, just smaller and slightly more manageable for hospitals. I hope it petering out happens sooner than it feels like it will!
I disagree with other things too, but I just want to be clear that both articles I posted assumed vaccines as part of the way covid-19 becomes endemic vs pandemic and not so much of a threat. Not sure why the response is to suggest the pieces are anti vax. My main reason for posting was to combat a vax doesn't work post.
I wasn't meaning to suggest the article was anti vaxx, sorry if it came off that way. I've heard a lot of anti vaxx rhetoric latch onto the idea that since covid will just become an endemic minor thing anyway, we should just let it happen already, so that's what it got me thinking about.2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1GmUu3c28Y
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