Regression Analysis

Kevin Hall has already done a model (as I am sure have others).

And it is not a straight 3500 per lb.

And you will have a hard time separating fat vs lean mass lost and their contributions.

And there are errors everywhere when it comes to estimating calories in and calories out.

And a retrospective calculation will be valid for you, specifically, but as a sample of one will be of limited use to the rest of us.

And very few people succeed in maintaining a large weight loss for a long period of time.

And in all this doom and gloom we also do know that starting from a position of maintenance and lowering intake and increasing expenditure in the ~8-12% range for each of them works wonders. (Increased expenditure can be achieved by increasing activity, increasing exercise, or both. It is not a necessary condition to achieve weight loss or even weight management, though, generally, it would be considered conducive. Your biggest bang for the buck will be control of your caloric intake)

The rest will vary. And absolute accuracy, or more than "gross" predictability is not necessary for success. What you do with your caloric balance MOST of the time will determine your end results!!!

Along the lines of your original question check out the body weight planner (advanced mode) and Kevin Hall's associated paper in terms of predicting weight loss per application of deficit.

At the same time check out other papers that essentially say that long term maintenance will require ongoing work and commitment.

Which is where I come in to say: don't make it too hard on yourself and try to have fun along the way. It's definitely worth it if you're starting out from a position where your weight has become a health concern!