Coronavirus prep
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cwolfman13 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »Italy had another spike today in reported deaths. It should be a lesson to all of us. What I have heard happen is that when Milan was getting ready to lock down, many of their young got on trains and fled the area, concerned to be restricted. This, I believe, is the second "wave" from that. I had hoped their numbers would continue to go down.
I'm afraid we're about to see numbers of 500, then 1000 dying a day (or more) by next week. We can't go back to "business as usual" until all the doctors and nurses have adequate protection, ventilators, supplies and aren't putting their lives in danger. Perhaps when they are taken care of first (and those at risk with masks and gloves), then we can work on getting masks and gloves for the general public. At the rate our government is getting things done, that would be like end of Summer. I can also see a mass produced stop gap vaccine using antibodies of those that have recovered by then. Give it to those in greatest risk first (the medical providers and elderly and those with preexisting conditions) and then the rest of us. Then, we can all get back to work. But that's four months from now minimum and would require a government to govern.
At this stage, I have way more faith in the private sector than I do the public sector.
It's going to be interesting in the US because there has been little to no organized national response really. State governors and local officials are all doing their own thing. I'm pretty pleased with New Mexico's response so far. Our governor acted pretty quickly...we had our first 3 presumptive positives on Wednesday March 11.
Schools were closed by Thursday afternoon across the state and people were told to socially distance and work from home when and where possible and gatherings of more than 25 people were banned. By the following week gatherings were further reduced and restaurants and whatnot were told they could only provide take out and delivery services and urged all non essential business to shut down. Gyms and other recreational facilities were ordered to close.
The only issue I've had so far is that urging for non essential business to close didn't really do much, so an enforceable order was given yesterday afternoon and gatherings are now limited to 5 or less. I think that enforceable order should have came last week, but a lot of people were thinking things were going too far as we had less than 30 cases at that time. It's probably changed today....haven't checked, but as of yesterday we were still under 100 and what she's done so far has seemed to be relatively proactive.
I am also hopeful that my state will also be able to get back to business sooner rather than later...we are a very rural state with a population of only about 2 million...there is a lot of social distancing baked into the cake here. Albuquerque is currently and will most likely remain the hardest hit as the population epicenter of the state. I reside in a quite, rural village outside of the city, but unfortunately we do have to go into the greater metro area to grocery shop and whatnot...but we are seriously considering using grocery delivery services at this point.
Still under 100, but it's interesting that the majority are under 50 years old. Should be a lesson to people.
We have 87 deaths here in Washington State. Half of those are from one hospice/nursing home. Many of their workers also were infected, not sure how many have died of the workers, if any. That skews the age/death ratios when 37 deaths are from a hospice/nursing home and that means they were already really sick. One young doctor has died from the hospital where they all were sent.
The state count of cases yesterday was 1170 ...they've probably tested 25,000.
They are now doing random samples of the entire population, not just sick people. It's being done by the Seattle Flu Study people in conjunction with King County (the most populous county, where Seattle is.)
It's a home test/mail in.
https://publichealthinsider.com/2020/03/23/introducing-scan-the-greater-seattle-coronavirus-assessment-network/6 -
lightenup2016 wrote: »I wish the US media would report the number of people hospitalized, not just cases and deaths. The number of cases depends heavily on testing (which the CDC is no longer recommending except for the high-risk and/or seriously ill), and the death toll in the US probably sounds "low" to many here who insist this is so much better than the flu. If they included the number hospitalized, they might be able to better see how NYC hospitals will soon be overloaded.
Agreed. This is the best I've found, but not all states have the hospitalized number, so it's not reliable. It's a good overall source anyway: https://covidtracking.com/data/
Nate Silver has pointed out that due to the backlog in testing the positive numbers changing right now is not super informative about how fast it's actually spreading, but the hospitalization numbers likely reflect how much it was spreading as of 7-10 days ago. How fast they are increasing is really important.2 -
I'm feeling super low today. It feels like this nightmare will never end. My husband said 19 workers called out last night, another 5 went home and 2 people on his shift were sent home at lunch. Our foolish governor refuses to shut down the state, despite the fact that 6 additional deaths were reported today between noon and 7pm. Despite the fact that 8 deaths occurred in people with no known underlying health problems. A previously healthy, vibrant 12 year-old child is fighting for her life at Children's Healthcare of Atlanta tonight. I'm just so tired of living under the cloud of constant fear. Wondering if one of my loved ones will be a casualty.32
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lightenup2016 wrote: »I wish the US media would report the number of people hospitalized, not just cases and deaths. The number of cases depends heavily on testing (which the CDC is no longer recommending except for the high-risk and/or seriously ill), and the death toll in the US probably sounds "low" to many here who insist this is so much better than the flu. If they included the number hospitalized, they might be able to better see how NYC hospitals will soon be overloaded.
Agreed. This is the best I've found, but not all states have the hospitalized number, so it's not reliable. It's a good overall source anyway: https://covidtracking.com/data/
Nate Silver has pointed out that due to the backlog in testing the testing numbers changing is not super helpful, but the hospitalization numbers likely reflect how much it was spreading as of 7-10 days ago. How fast they are increasing is really important.
Thanks for that link. It's interesting to me that my state of NC has about 470 reported cases (as of today), but no deaths reported. Most other states with that many reported cases have at least 1, but in most cases, more than 1 death reported. I mean I'm thankful there aren't any, but just wondering why the difference.
Of course NC is not reporting hospitalizations. I thought I saw it buried somewhere that it was around 30 as of today.1 -
Wisconsin is just shy of 500 cases but holding steady with only 5 deaths.0
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We've got over 1500 cases now, and 16 deaths. Only one of the deaths is outside Chicago metro, and DuPage (which has a nursing home outbreak) has only 1 so far. Our first death was reported a week ago.0
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DecadeDuchess wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »I wish the US media would report the number of people hospitalized, not just cases and deaths. The number of cases depends heavily on testing (which the CDC is no longer recommending except for the high-risk and/or seriously ill), and the death toll in the US probably sounds "low" to many here who insist this is so much better than the flu. If they included the number hospitalized, they might be able to better see how NYC hospitals will soon be overloaded.
However what you're proposing doesn't include those, whom haven't sought medical attention yet because of being told to stay home since they'd be sent home anyway.
I'm just saying that if people see how many of the sick wind up in the hospital, it might make it more clear the seriousness of the situation. If they see a large number of cases but "only" a small number of deaths, it might not look as dire. It's the overload of the hospitals with the thousands of patients, many in ICU, that take the toll on the medical workers.
I read that in Italy, because of the nature of the illness and the fact that serious cases can wind up in the hospital for 2-3 weeks, that most of those who have left the hospital so far, are those who have died.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-hospitals.html
Some quotes from that article that emphasize the seriousness of this:
"The near collapse of many of the region’s hospitals, and the dearth of mechanical ventilators, oxygen and personal protective equipment, has led many doctors to urge patients to stay away. They argue that overloaded hospitals increasingly seem to be sources of contagion, and that infected but asymptomatic ambulance workers sent to retrieve patients in their homes are actually spreading the virus."
“If a patient has a low likelihood to benefit from the hospital, we have to not accept them. You send them home.” He added, “This is also what I am seeing every day.” [referring to older, very sick patients that are getting turned away, and go home to die]
"And since the most serious virus patients require at least two weeks of hospitalization, practically the only patients who have left the hospital are those who have died."3 -
A grocery store clerk in a store near us has been diagnosed with covid-19. There are a few stores that deliver, but some of their websites are asking that we don't overwhelm them, that the service should be primarily for vulnerable or quarantined people (which is valid).3
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I'm in shock at the number of reported cases in New York (over 29,000), and I believe the number of new cases is doubling every three days. The state with the next highest numbers (NJ) has less than 2900. I don't know if NY is a special case or if we'll see this happening in other densely populated areas. Are they doing more testing than everyone else?3
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lightenup2016 wrote: »DecadeDuchess wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »I wish the US media would report the number of people hospitalized, not just cases and deaths. The number of cases depends heavily on testing (which the CDC is no longer recommending except for the high-risk and/or seriously ill), and the death toll in the US probably sounds "low" to many here who insist this is so much better than the flu. If they included the number hospitalized, they might be able to better see how NYC hospitals will soon be overloaded.
However what you're proposing doesn't include those, whom haven't sought medical attention yet because of being told to stay home since they'd be sent home anyway.
I'm just saying that if people see how many of the sick wind up in the hospital, it might make it more clear the seriousness of the situation. If they see a large number of cases but "only" a small number of deaths, it might not look as dire. It's the overload of the hospitals with the thousands of patients, many in ICU, that take the toll on the medical workers.
I read that in Italy, because of the nature of the illness and the fact that serious cases can wind up in the hospital for 2-3 weeks, that most of those who have left the hospital so far, are those who have died.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-hospitals.html
Some quotes from that article that emphasize the seriousness of this:
"The near collapse of many of the region’s hospitals, and the dearth of mechanical ventilators, oxygen and personal protective equipment, has led many doctors to urge patients to stay away. They argue that overloaded hospitals increasingly seem to be sources of contagion, and that infected but asymptomatic ambulance workers sent to retrieve patients in their homes are actually spreading the virus."
“If a patient has a low likelihood to benefit from the hospital, we have to not accept them. You send them home.” He added, “This is also what I am seeing every day.”
"And since the most serious virus patients require at least two weeks of hospitalization, practically the only patients who have left the hospital are those who have died."
I don't disagree with you, I was explaining that it isn't comprehensive.1 -
I have noticed a new trend on the news page I frequent - younger people sharing their experience with COVID, and reiterating that it is NOT like the flu. I think the personal stories are good to have out there...
My uncle in IL is back in the hospital with COVID symptoms and we are told it’s not looking good. He’s in his early 70’s I believe and was fighting major health issues before this all started. My dad is struggling. He is also the one that oversees my 94 year old grandmother in a nursing home near him.25 -
I'm in shock at the number of reported cases in New York (over 29,000), and I believe the number of new cases is doubling every three days. The state with the next highest numbers (NJ) has less than 2900. I don't know if NY is a special case or if we'll see this happening in other densely populated areas. Are they doing more testing than everyone else?
I think they've done a bunch more testing (91,270 tests), even adjusted for population, but I also think it's because there have been some major outbreaks there. Given what an international city NYC is, it was probably circulating there for a while before the testing became available. I know there have been specific hotspots too, like New Rochelle.4 -
DecadeDuchess wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »DecadeDuchess wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »I wish the US media would report the number of people hospitalized, not just cases and deaths. The number of cases depends heavily on testing (which the CDC is no longer recommending except for the high-risk and/or seriously ill), and the death toll in the US probably sounds "low" to many here who insist this is so much better than the flu. If they included the number hospitalized, they might be able to better see how NYC hospitals will soon be overloaded.
However what you're proposing doesn't include those, whom haven't sought medical attention yet because of being told to stay home since they'd be sent home anyway.
I'm just saying that if people see how many of the sick wind up in the hospital, it might make it more clear the seriousness of the situation. If they see a large number of cases but "only" a small number of deaths, it might not look as dire. It's the overload of the hospitals with the thousands of patients, many in ICU, that take the toll on the medical workers.
I read that in Italy, because of the nature of the illness and the fact that serious cases can wind up in the hospital for 2-3 weeks, that most of those who have left the hospital so far, are those who have died.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-hospitals.html
Some quotes from that article that emphasize the seriousness of this:
"The near collapse of many of the region’s hospitals, and the dearth of mechanical ventilators, oxygen and personal protective equipment, has led many doctors to urge patients to stay away. They argue that overloaded hospitals increasingly seem to be sources of contagion, and that infected but asymptomatic ambulance workers sent to retrieve patients in their homes are actually spreading the virus."
“If a patient has a low likelihood to benefit from the hospital, we have to not accept them. You send them home.” He added, “This is also what I am seeing every day.”
"And since the most serious virus patients require at least two weeks of hospitalization, practically the only patients who have left the hospital are those who have died."
I don't disagree with you, I was explaining that it isn't comprehensive.
I did not at all understand lightenup to be claiming it was comprehensive (so thus not in need of that "explanation"), but that it was a valuable (perhaps the most valuable) measure to track.3 -
moonangel12 wrote: »I have noticed a new trend on the news page I frequent - younger people sharing their experience with COVID, and reiterating that it is NOT like the flu. I think the personal stories are good to have out there...
My uncle in IL is back in the hospital with COVID symptoms and we are told it’s not looking good. He’s in his early 70’s I believe and was fighting major health issues before this all started. My dad is struggling. He is also the one that oversees my 94 year old grandmother in a nursing home near him.
I'm so sorry.5 -
@moonangel12 I hope it turns around for your uncle. This thing sticks around on surfaces for hours. It's durable and washing our hands is about the only thing we have as the first and last line of defense against it. I'm pulling for your family.3
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I needed this today. Possibly someone else here can benefit from reading it, too.
https://hbr.org/2020/03/that-discomfort-youre-feeling-is-grief12 -
Note: I'm not reporting the following because I believe the predictions, but just as an example of odd things happening in the world now.
National Public Radio had a brief news item this evening (I couldn't find a link) about an exec in a company that manufactures thermometers that upload readings to the internet. His claim is that their aggregated data gives insight into COVID-19 trends. On that basis, he thinks that California is turning a corner (new fever temps not increasing), and that Florida is a upcoming hot spot.
(Pretty sure I heard all that right: The gist is, for sure. Internet of things => big data => dubious conclusions we haven't had data for, in past times . . . actual value of said observations/conclusions TBD.)10 -
I needed this today. Possibly someone else here can benefit from reading it, too.
https://hbr.org/2020/03/that-discomfort-youre-feeling-is-grief
Thanks, that was a really good read 😊0 -
Question: Those asymptomatic people who test positive--do they develop symptoms eventually, or do some never become symptomatic? In the above example of CA testing temperatures, can they be sure all of the people with normal temps are Covid-19 negative?3
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lightenup2016 wrote: »Question: Those asymptomatic people who test positive--do they develop symptoms eventually, or do some never become symptomatic? In the above example of CA testing temperatures, can they be sure all of the people with normal temps are Covid-19 negative?
The testing temperatures thing (in what I posted) was just statistics, not diagnosis.
All that company is saying is that they see a lot of temperature data get uploaded every day (probably thousands of temperature measurements). Under normal circunstances, the number of temperatures, and the percent of those that are fever temperatures, would tend to bounce around in a certain small range. Suddenly, they start seeing uploaded data that's different, maybe more temperatures taken, and maybe a higher percentage are fever temperatures. They have no idea which people have COVID, or don't have COVID. They're just seeing more people with fevers, and in current circumstances of pandemic, believing that most of the unusual variations in numbers are probably due to COVID. Just statistics.
Google has advanced similar theories in the past, when they saw web seaches on some particular keyword start trending up, in some geographic area.
I have no idea about your other question, regarding whether asymptomatic cases who test positive eventually develop symptoms or not.2
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