Coronavirus prep
Replies
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I think it should be no surprise that the virus hits some people harder even if they have no underlying medical condition. Aren't there always some that do not fit the profile? Is there any reason to believe the outlier percentage will significantly increase at this time?
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cwolfman13 wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Spoke too soon. After 2 days of a downward trend in new cases, the North jumped again. Sigh.
Do you hear any reasons why Germany has a much lower death rate than Italy?
Because Germany has been way more proactive in testing and tracking, not just social distancing and shutting things down. The last I checked, Germany was testing 160K + per day and immediately quarantining those infected and then tracing their movements and contacts and quarantining those individuals as well. From what I understand in Italy, it was much the same as the USA...an early laissez faire approach and attitude and only really testing when people are symptomatic to leave a whole bunch of non symptomatic people who are infected running around and infecting others
South Korea had the same general approach as Germany, and both of those countries have fared far better than anyone else in this.
Actually, they did quarantine and track the first cases, and put them in strict quarantine. A Chinese couple came down with COV19 in Rome in the very beginning. The entire hotel was tested and quarantined, as was the rest of their group that had proceeded on in their travels. That's why everyone thought it was under control, that and "it's just the flu". Suddenly the virus exploded in the North and snowballed fast. To be fair, no one yet knew how contagious this was and how fast it could spread. There is talk here that Germany had a case in November. So maybe they knew more before we did.1 -
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snowflake954 wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Spoke too soon. After 2 days of a downward trend in new cases, the North jumped again. Sigh.
Do you hear any reasons why Germany has a much lower death rate than Italy?
Because Germany has been way more proactive in testing and tracking, not just social distancing and shutting things down. The last I checked, Germany was testing 160K + per day and immediately quarantining those infected and then tracing their movements and contacts and quarantining those individuals as well. From what I understand in Italy, it was much the same as the USA...an early laissez faire approach and attitude and only really testing when people are symptomatic to leave a whole bunch of non symptomatic people who are infected running around and infecting others
South Korea had the same general approach as Germany, and both of those countries have fared far better than anyone else in this.
Actually, they did quarantine and track the first cases, and put them in strict quarantine. A Chinese couple came down with COV19 in Rome in the very beginning. The entire hotel was tested and quarantined, as was the rest of their group that had proceeded on in their travels. That's why everyone thought it was under control, that and "it's just the flu". Suddenly the virus exploded in the North and snowballed fast. To be fair, no one yet knew how contagious this was and how fast it could spread. There is talk here that Germany had a case in November. So maybe they knew more before we did.
What I meant was that Germany was/is providing testing even for those without symptoms or anything to suggest they have the virus. South Korea has done much the same.
We're testing and quarantining and tracking as well...but we in the US aren't testing until someone is symptomatic.5 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Spoke too soon. After 2 days of a downward trend in new cases, the North jumped again. Sigh.
Do you hear any reasons why Germany has a much lower death rate than Italy?
Because Germany has been way more proactive in testing and tracking, not just social distancing and shutting things down. The last I checked, Germany was testing 160K + per day and immediately quarantining those infected and then tracing their movements and contacts and quarantining those individuals as well. From what I understand in Italy, it was much the same as the USA...an early laissez faire approach and attitude and only really testing when people are symptomatic to leave a whole bunch of non symptomatic people who are infected running around and infecting others
South Korea had the same general approach as Germany, and both of those countries have fared far better than anyone else in this.
Actually, they did quarantine and track the first cases, and put them in strict quarantine. A Chinese couple came down with COV19 in Rome in the very beginning. The entire hotel was tested and quarantined, as was the rest of their group that had proceeded on in their travels. That's why everyone thought it was under control, that and "it's just the flu". Suddenly the virus exploded in the North and snowballed fast. To be fair, no one yet knew how contagious this was and how fast it could spread. There is talk here that Germany had a case in November. So maybe they knew more before we did.
What I meant was that Germany was/is providing testing even for those without symptoms or anything to suggest they have the virus. South Korea has done much the same.
We're testing and quarantining and tracking as well...but we in the US aren't testing until someone is symptomatic.
Thank you for clearing that up--yes, testing wasn't done unless one had symptoms or had been in contact. It costs money to test an entire population and you need enough testing kits available.3 -
I don't know if anyone saw this, but the US (per Worldometers) is now the country with the highest number of cases and rising rapidly.9
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cwolfman13 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Spoke too soon. After 2 days of a downward trend in new cases, the North jumped again. Sigh.
Do you hear any reasons why Germany has a much lower death rate than Italy?
Because Germany has been way more proactive in testing and tracking, not just social distancing and shutting things down. The last I checked, Germany was testing 160K + per day and immediately quarantining those infected and then tracing their movements and contacts and quarantining those individuals as well. From what I understand in Italy, it was much the same as the USA...an early laissez faire approach and attitude and only really testing when people are symptomatic to leave a whole bunch of non symptomatic people who are infected running around and infecting others
South Korea had the same general approach as Germany, and both of those countries have fared far better than anyone else in this.
Actually, they did quarantine and track the first cases, and put them in strict quarantine. A Chinese couple came down with COV19 in Rome in the very beginning. The entire hotel was tested and quarantined, as was the rest of their group that had proceeded on in their travels. That's why everyone thought it was under control, that and "it's just the flu". Suddenly the virus exploded in the North and snowballed fast. To be fair, no one yet knew how contagious this was and how fast it could spread. There is talk here that Germany had a case in November. So maybe they knew more before we did.
What I meant was that Germany was/is providing testing even for those without symptoms or anything to suggest they have the virus. South Korea has done much the same.
We're testing and quarantining and tracking as well...but we in the US aren't testing until someone is symptomatic.
And in some areas, not testing all those who are symptomatic, if tests are still in short supply - some areas seem still to be testing just severe symptoms.4 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »I don't know if anyone saw this, but the US (per Worldometers) is now the country with the highest number of cases and rising rapidly.
Yep, just saw that on the JHU map too.
And there are people who still don't think this is serious..... 3 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »I don't know if anyone saw this, but the US (per Worldometers) is now the country with the highest number of cases and rising rapidly.
Looks like the numbers of new cases really jumped today lots of places.
IL had been 250 more, 250 more, 300 more since the increased testing really started rolling in and then today +671 (total over 2500). Deaths up from 19 to 26 too.
People did seem to take social distancing way more seriously when I was outside today, at least, although few were out anyway since it was wet and grey.2 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Spoke too soon. After 2 days of a downward trend in new cases, the North jumped again. Sigh.
Do you hear any reasons why Germany has a much lower death rate than Italy?
Because Germany has been way more proactive in testing and tracking, not just social distancing and shutting things down. The last I checked, Germany was testing 160K + per day and immediately quarantining those infected and then tracing their movements and contacts and quarantining those individuals as well. From what I understand in Italy, it was much the same as the USA...an early laissez faire approach and attitude and only really testing when people are symptomatic to leave a whole bunch of non symptomatic people who are infected running around and infecting others
South Korea had the same general approach as Germany, and both of those countries have fared far better than anyone else in this.
Actually, they did quarantine and track the first cases, and put them in strict quarantine. A Chinese couple came down with COV19 in Rome in the very beginning. The entire hotel was tested and quarantined, as was the rest of their group that had proceeded on in their travels. That's why everyone thought it was under control, that and "it's just the flu". Suddenly the virus exploded in the North and snowballed fast. To be fair, no one yet knew how contagious this was and how fast it could spread. There is talk here that Germany had a case in November. So maybe they knew more before we did.
What I meant was that Germany was/is providing testing even for those without symptoms or anything to suggest they have the virus. South Korea has done much the same.
We're testing and quarantining and tracking as well...but we in the US aren't testing until someone is symptomatic.
And in some areas, not testing all those who are symptomatic, if tests are still in short supply - some areas seem still to be testing just severe symptoms.
That's the way it is still here in WV. I think when I looked at the state health department website this morning, we had tested just over 1,000 people. There are still all sorts of stories of people who have all the symptoms but aren't considered bad enough to test.
On another note, I noticed today on the John Hopkins map, which is now doing county level in the US, that there is a case cropped up less than an hour away from me and in the town in which my brother and sister in law and niece live, though for my brother's sanity, I truly hope my sister in law doesn't find out. She's already panicking as it is!4 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »I don't know if anyone saw this, but the US (per Worldometers) is now the country with the highest number of cases and rising rapidly.
Looks like the numbers of new cases really jumped today lots of places.
IL had been 250 more, 250 more, 300 more since the increased testing really started rolling in and then today +671 (total over 2500). Deaths up from 19 to 26 too.
People did seem to take social distancing way more seriously when I was outside today, at least, although few were out anyway since it was wet and grey.
To be fair, this was to be expected, since we hadn't been testing. And, compared to Italy, it's a lot more spread out. Bring on the heat. I think that will slow it along with continued social distancing measures, which not enough are following.3 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Spoke too soon. After 2 days of a downward trend in new cases, the North jumped again. Sigh.
Do you hear any reasons why Germany has a much lower death rate than Italy?
This link "may"answer your question
Interesting article, specially the last paragraph (quoted)
..."E[b]ither way, it is a reminder that Covid-19 will continue to reveal the strengths and weaknesses of health care systems across the world. The current observed differences also mandate that, when we finally are out from underneath the weight of the current crisis, we must work to determine how we can deliver better health care to large populations across the world"
htps://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/opinions/germany-low-death-rate-for-coronavirus-sepkowitz/index.html[/b]
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Lots of tests came in today. We are up to 4,651 tested and 645 positive. 17 deaths. It is still concentrating in the same way as before. I am for sure in a hot spot for the state and I only see it getting worse.
I NEED to get to CVS this weekend and just hope they have what I need. May also check out what they have grocery wise too. If I can get there early Saturday then I can adjust my grocery list for Instacart on Monday morning.2 -
USA 🇺🇸 today has the most cases of Coronavirus numbers came in an hour ago
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Yes trying to upload with a 3yr old pushing buttons the MFP won’t let me edit so enjoy the cartoons he tossed in.
He also claims he needs to wash his hands every time he sees One of the Congress men so thinking in a speech they mentioned it the baby took it to heart so missing a lot of news as I wash his hands.4 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »
Manufacturers have increased production and others are converting lines to help with production...but it's not like flipping a switch and all of a sudden ventilators and PPE equipment comes rolling off these lines. Also, these companies supply a global market, not just the USA. It's a global market and global demand for a global crisis.
It's not quite as easy as snapping one's fingers and getting production to match worldwide demand. Not particularly a fan of this administration, but they're pretty limited in what they can really do here. The only thing they could really do is basically take control of the US stockpile as an emergency and distribute them where they see most fit...but at current, there would still be shortages around the country.
There are numerous articles showing production of new ventilators has not started, at least as of a few days ago. Decisive action, based on the information coming out of China, would have made a difference.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marleycoyne/2020/03/23/gm-and-ford-are-not-yet-making-ventilators-despite-trumps-assertion/#3e7ef6214784
Also: "What is really needed, a number of public health experts and former government officials say, is for Washington to take control of the nation’s existing ventilator supply. Because peak coronavirus infections will hit cities and regions at different times in the coming months, a centralized federal effort could send unused machines to hospitals that need them most." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/health/ventilators-coronavirus.html
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https://businessinsider.com/coronavirus-spain-says-rapid-tests-sent-from-china-missing-cases-2020-3?amp
Sounds like Spain's false negative test results could be on reason the number of China cases could be under counted as well.
Stress is real.
https://foxnews.com/us/kentucky-mayor-coronavirus-warning-pulls-no-punches2 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Update from Italy---things in the North are a bit better. New cases are down for the second day in a row. Deaths are still high. The people coming out of this that have been on ventilators have been in the hospital for a month. It's a long process, hence the overload in the hospitals.
Now, we're having small towns crop up with clusters of infection. They are quickly all quarantined, the town is isolated, and everyone is tested. More and more nursing homes are centers for the virus.
We have been in Lockdown 2 weeks now. Next week will tell the tale.
Russia has sent 100 doctors and supplies, Cuba has sent doctors, China has sent doctors and supplies, Germany has sent ventilators,The States has just sent help (hope we'll be repaying you down the line if this lets up for us).
Many small factories have started making masks and hazemat suits. We should all have masks next week.
A small sandwich shop on the ground floor of our building just reopened for takeout. Rome is still doing OK. Unless we have an explosion of cases. It's been 2 weeks now and that's encouraging, but if it happens, it will in the next few days.
Sorry about New York. You guys are strong. You'll come through.
Thanks for the detailed up date that does give some peace of mind about our future. I found the article below encouraging in all of the gloom.
https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-scientist-youre-not-going-to-see-millions-of-people-die-from-covid-19/
"Okay, so let me first say that I am not a physician, nor am I an epidemiologist, and I may not even be considered a virologist per se."
Okay, then.
"This is a disease that mostly afflicts the elderly, not that one does not care about the elderly. But to people that are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe . . ."
Except this doesn't seem to be true. A 36-year-old high school principal in New York has died. A 59-year-old chef has died. A 34-year-old in Los Angeles has died. 26% of the children who tested positive in Spain had to be hospitalized (as of three days ago).
This guy doesn't seem to know the basics of how this is impacting people, I think there are better sources available.
We are looking forward to reading your better sources.
I think we are all taken back with how many younger people had unknown preexisting health issues making the impact of COVID-19 worse.
I agree with this scientist instead of you about we are not going to see millions die from COVID-19.
How do you know that everyone hospitalized under sixty had a previously unknown underlying condition? You're moving the goalposts here because your source said specifically that "to people who are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe." You don't even agree with your own source here.
You're putting your trust in someone just because they're a scientist, even though they admittedly have no special knowledge of medicine and no specific research done on this virus. Knowing science generally doesn't make someone an expert on all topics related to medicine. The best scientists (and doctors) know what they don't know and they don't use their expertise on another topic to pretend to certainty they can't possibly justify.
I am not arguing that millions will die. I am arguing that I don't buy this guy's expertise and I think it's irresponsible for him to tell people this is no big deal.
If he did not pass your peer review I am OK with that. He passed my peer review because is replies indicated what he could and could not answer. There just are no one who can fully speak to what is or is going to happen to this new strain of virus.
Except you don't have the credentials to be considered a peer.21 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Update from Italy---things in the North are a bit better. New cases are down for the second day in a row. Deaths are still high. The people coming out of this that have been on ventilators have been in the hospital for a month. It's a long process, hence the overload in the hospitals.
Now, we're having small towns crop up with clusters of infection. They are quickly all quarantined, the town is isolated, and everyone is tested. More and more nursing homes are centers for the virus.
We have been in Lockdown 2 weeks now. Next week will tell the tale.
Russia has sent 100 doctors and supplies, Cuba has sent doctors, China has sent doctors and supplies, Germany has sent ventilators,The States has just sent help (hope we'll be repaying you down the line if this lets up for us).
Many small factories have started making masks and hazemat suits. We should all have masks next week.
A small sandwich shop on the ground floor of our building just reopened for takeout. Rome is still doing OK. Unless we have an explosion of cases. It's been 2 weeks now and that's encouraging, but if it happens, it will in the next few days.
Sorry about New York. You guys are strong. You'll come through.
Thanks for the detailed up date that does give some peace of mind about our future. I found the article below encouraging in all of the gloom.
https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-scientist-youre-not-going-to-see-millions-of-people-die-from-covid-19/
"Okay, so let me first say that I am not a physician, nor am I an epidemiologist, and I may not even be considered a virologist per se."
Okay, then.
"This is a disease that mostly afflicts the elderly, not that one does not care about the elderly. But to people that are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe . . ."
Except this doesn't seem to be true. A 36-year-old high school principal in New York has died. A 59-year-old chef has died. A 34-year-old in Los Angeles has died. 26% of the children who tested positive in Spain had to be hospitalized (as of three days ago).
This guy doesn't seem to know the basics of how this is impacting people, I think there are better sources available.
We are looking forward to reading your better sources.
I think we are all taken back with how many younger people had unknown preexisting health issues making the impact of COVID-19 worse.
I agree with this scientist instead of you about we are not going to see millions die from COVID-19.
How do you know that everyone hospitalized under sixty had a previously unknown underlying condition? You're moving the goalposts here because your source said specifically that "to people who are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe." You don't even agree with your own source here.
You're putting your trust in someone just because they're a scientist, even though they admittedly have no special knowledge of medicine and no specific research done on this virus. Knowing science generally doesn't make someone an expert on all topics related to medicine. The best scientists (and doctors) know what they don't know and they don't use their expertise on another topic to pretend to certainty they can't possibly justify.
I am not arguing that millions will die. I am arguing that I don't buy this guy's expertise and I think it's irresponsible for him to tell people this is no big deal.
If he did not pass your peer review I am OK with that. He passed my peer review because is replies indicated what he could and could not answer. There just are no one who can fully speak to what is or is going to happen to this new strain of virus.
Except you don't have the credentials to be considered a peer.
Thanks for joking to lessen the stress levels we are all feeling.
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Gale bet your right . Say Italy said they’ve stopped counting the dead0
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