Coronavirus prep

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Replies

  • Diatonic12
    Diatonic12 Posts: 32,344 Member
    @JustSomeEm You're up bright and early. Me, too. Thanks for the link.
  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,502 Member
    Good news from Eli Lilly on its antibody development, but I'm being cautious. Even 72% reduction in risk is not enough IMO. Considering we are approaching 1 million world-wide deaths in a matter of months (not years), a 72% reduction is just not enough. It is a good start, though.

    Ely Lilly Claims Experimental Drug Protects Covid-19 Patients https://nyti.ms/2FGW3Pg
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    edited September 2020
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    edited September 2020
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.

    The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.

    Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.

    Some are saying only 43% now would be necessary. Look, I'm not for herd immunity. It's just happening as a result of very poor communicated messages on mask wearing and people just disregarding common sense. I do think we might hit 600K or 700K dead before it's all said and done, but I don't think that the original projections of 2M dead to reach Herd Immunity is accurate. And as far as the 70%, we simply don't know how many might have had enough exposure while wearing masks to already have immunity.

    You could be right about exposure not meaning immunity. But I think with the T cell information (being more effective and longer term and antibodies), I do think that most that have had it will have long term protection. It seems to be gaining traction that this is the case.

    Sweden's rates of infection are now below pre pandemic levels. Dropping rapidly.
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.

    The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.

    Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.

    https://www.mic.com/p/could-your-mask-act-as-a-coronavirus-vaccine-33454066

    This part of the article speaks to what you and I are talking about. You're right, we simply don't know but I'd like to be optimistic.

    "Using variolation as a method of creating immunity presumes that being exposed to smaller amounts of the virus will lead to less serious illness and that mild cases of COVID-19 will create lasting protection, the New York Times reported. We can’t be sure of either of these, as research into the disease is still new."
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    @AnnPT77 -- I agree there will be lives lost that don't need to be lost and some by no fault of their own, tragically. No argument there. It's already happening now. I just don't see how it's avoidable in the current environment.
  • kshama2001
    kshama2001 Posts: 27,846 Member
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.

    The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.

    Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.

    Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception
  • kshama2001
    kshama2001 Posts: 27,846 Member
    White House abandoned plan to send 650 million face masks across the U.S. in April, report says

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/white-house-abandoned-plan-to-deliver-650-million-face-masks-across-us-report-says.html

    Key Points:
    • The U.S. Postal Service had drafted a press release announcing plans to send 650 million masks across the U.S. early in the coronavirus crisis, but the plan was abandoned, The Washington Post first reported.
    • In April, Postal Service leaders drafted an announcement saying the USPS would deliver five reusable face masks to every residence and post office box in the country.
    • The White House ultimately canceled the program, senior administration officials told the Post.
  • SummerSkier
    SummerSkier Posts: 4,748 Member
    In my alt world utopia back in January when China first shut down and extended their new year the entire WORLD took it seriously and face covers were mandatory. Being in industry our logistics folks started sending daily updates For them to shut down gave me chills and every update I saw from suppliers made the hair on the back of my neck stand up.