Coronavirus prep
Replies
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rheddmobile wrote: »While there are lots of scary articles about the south African variant, they are based on very limited data. Most of the pros I follow on social media are saying that while this is concerning, other variants have been concerning and turned out to not be a problem.
From what I understand, any new variant has to be more transmissible than the current dominant variant, otherwise it can't get a foothold and dies out. So even if this new guy is better at evading vaccines, if it is less transmissible than Delta it won't matter. Also, it "looks" like it "may" be able to evade vaccines, that's not for sure yet.
The South African scientific community did a fabulous service to the world by identifying and sharing news of this variant so quickly!
That was yesterday’s news - today’s says that the new variant has taken over 75% of new South American cases in a week and is well on it’s way to being 100% in short order. Unless there’s been a mistake made, it looks super transmissible. And there are four cases in HK in fully vaxxed people. I think the only reason I’m not panicking is that my adrenaline system is so worn out from the past two years that I’m now incapable of panic. The good news, such as it is, is that the vax makers think it would “only” take about three months to get a new vax out tailor made for this variant.
Like I said, not panicking - just really really tired of this and wanting to hear some good news.
Me too.
And I'm reading the same information you are. We had a stock market crash in Europe yesterday due to news of the SA variant. My husband says that means it's definitely worth watching. My family in Minnesota want me to come home. Since we don't know where this is going, I'm on the fence.6 -
What makes me twitchy is how quickly the WHO has moved to name omicron a variant of concern. Delta was first identified in Oct, 2020. Does anyone remember how long it took for it to be labeled a voc?0
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rheddmobile wrote: »While there are lots of scary articles about the south African variant, they are based on very limited data. Most of the pros I follow on social media are saying that while this is concerning, other variants have been concerning and turned out to not be a problem.
From what I understand, any new variant has to be more transmissible than the current dominant variant, otherwise it can't get a foothold and dies out. So even if this new guy is better at evading vaccines, if it is less transmissible than Delta it won't matter. Also, it "looks" like it "may" be able to evade vaccines, that's not for sure yet.
The South African scientific community did a fabulous service to the world by identifying and sharing news of this variant so quickly!
That was yesterday’s news - today’s says that the new variant has taken over 75% of new South American cases in a week and is well on it’s way to being 100% in short order. Unless there’s been a mistake made, it looks super transmissible. And there are four cases in HK in fully vaxxed people. I think the only reason I’m not panicking is that my adrenaline system is so worn out from the past two years that I’m now incapable of panic. The good news, such as it is, is that the vax makers think it would “only” take about three months to get a new vax out tailor made for this variant.
Like I said, not panicking - just really really tired of this and wanting to hear some good news.
I haven't seen anything saying it has hit South America that hard. Do you mean South Africa?1 -
Me too.
And I'm reading the same information you are. We had a stock market crash in Europe yesterday due to news of the SA variant. My husband says that means it's definitely worth watching. My family in Minnesota want me to come home. Since we don't know where this is going, I'm on the fence.
One of the lessons of this whole debacle is that life is uncertain. I would go see your family while you still can. In February of 2020 I went to visit my 95 year old father in Texas as he had some serious health concerns. I am very glad I did as he died a year later, in a nursing home where we would not have been able to visit him.
At this point, I have become a lot more fatalistic. I feel like I will eventually get some variant of Covid. All I can do is try to live a healthy lifestyle, get vaccinated and boosted, and hope I'm not one of the unlucky ones who end up with long Covid or worse. I am not willing to put my life on hold forever and I'm not going to waste a lot of energy stressing about it.11 -
@spiriteagle99 I hear you. It seems like we are in an endless cycle with this virus.
I was just looking at some #s. US Pop 333.7M, and identified 49.05M cases. Is that really possible that almost 14.7% of the US pop has had a case? Did I math that right? As far as World total 261.2M cases vs 7,846M Pop seems 3.3% (just using the data from the NYT website) 0 -
SummerSkier wrote: »@spiriteagle99 I hear you. It seems like we are in an endless cycle with this virus. I was just looking at some #s. US Pop 333.7M, and identified 49.05M cases. Is that really possible that almost 14.7% of the US pop has had a case? Did I math that right? As far as World total 261.2M cases vs 7,846M Pop seems 3.3% (just using the data from the NYT website)
I'm not going to do the math
but I'd be cautious about comparisons with world data due to the huge disparities in testing (availability plus criteria) between nations. There are much less affluent countries where people have contracted Covid, become ill, died without ever having been officially tested as "positive", particularly in the early days of the pandemic. 6 -
The South African Health Minister says the vast majority of hospitalizations are still unvaxxed. There has been very slow uptake of vaccines in SA and surrounding countries. Said there is no data to suggest the new variant evades vaccine protection. That was a worry based on the number and placement of the mutations found in the lab, but so far there is no real world data to back that up.
(Disclaimer: this is what I read from a doctor who listened to the statement, I didn't listen myself.)
I was hoping TWIV would have something on it, but today's release did not include discussion of the new variant as far as I can tell. Likely too little info or lead time since WHO just held their emergency meeting yesterday. STAT had a good summary on the known/unknown regarding the new Omicron and what it could mean.
https://www.statnews.com/2021/11/26/whats-known-and-unknown-about-the-coronavirus-variant-identified-in-south-africa/4 -
rheddmobile wrote: »While there are lots of scary articles about the south African variant, they are based on very limited data. Most of the pros I follow on social media are saying that while this is concerning, other variants have been concerning and turned out to not be a problem.
From what I understand, any new variant has to be more transmissible than the current dominant variant, otherwise it can't get a foothold and dies out. So even if this new guy is better at evading vaccines, if it is less transmissible than Delta it won't matter. Also, it "looks" like it "may" be able to evade vaccines, that's not for sure yet.
The South African scientific community did a fabulous service to the world by identifying and sharing news of this variant so quickly!
That was yesterday’s news - today’s says that the new variant has taken over 75% of new South American cases in a week and is well on it’s way to being 100% in short order. Unless there’s been a mistake made, it looks super transmissible. And there are four cases in HK in fully vaxxed people. I think the only reason I’m not panicking is that my adrenaline system is so worn out from the past two years that I’m now incapable of panic. The good news, such as it is, is that the vax makers think it would “only” take about three months to get a new vax out tailor made for this variant.
Like I said, not panicking - just really really tired of this and wanting to hear some good news.
I haven't seen anything saying it has hit South America that hard. Do you mean South Africa?
Oops, sorry this was a brain fart! Yes, South Africa.2 -
This new variant is called Omicron and has 50 mutations making it unlike the original one that the vaccine was modeled on. Stay safe everyone vaccinated or not it is spreading very fast.1
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SummerSkier wrote: »@spiriteagle99 I hear you. It seems like we are in an endless cycle with this virus. I was just looking at some #s. US Pop 333.7M, and identified 49.05M cases. Is that really possible that almost 14.7% of the US pop has had a case? Did I math that right? As far as World total 261.2M cases vs 7,846M Pop seems 3.3% (just using the data from the NYT website)
Columbia thinks 1/3 of the US had Covid by the end of 2020. Who know what it is almost a year later.
https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news/one-three-americans-already-had-covid-19-end-20201 -
If you assume a 1% fatality rate, 777,000 deaths means roughly 78 million Americans have had Covid, which is what, about 23%? If you assume Covid is less fatal than that, it means even more people have had it.Theoldguy1 wrote: »SummerSkier wrote: »@spiriteagle99 I hear you. It seems like we are in an endless cycle with this virus. I was just looking at some #s. US Pop 333.7M, and identified 49.05M cases. Is that really possible that almost 14.7% of the US pop has had a case? Did I math that right? As far as World total 261.2M cases vs 7,846M Pop seems 3.3% (just using the data from the NYT website)
Columbia thinks 1/3 of the US had Covid by the end of 2020. Who know what it is almost a year later.
https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news/one-three-americans-already-had-covid-19-end-2020
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spiriteagle99 wrote: »Me too.
And I'm reading the same information you are. We had a stock market crash in Europe yesterday due to news of the SA variant. My husband says that means it's definitely worth watching. My family in Minnesota want me to come home. Since we don't know where this is going, I'm on the fence.
One of the lessons of this whole debacle is that life is uncertain. I would go see your family while you still can. In February of 2020 I went to visit my 95 year old father in Texas as he had some serious health concerns. I am very glad I did as he died a year later, in a nursing home where we would not have been able to visit him.
At this point, I have become a lot more fatalistic. I feel like I will eventually get some variant of Covid. All I can do is try to live a healthy lifestyle, get vaccinated and boosted, and hope I'm not one of the unlucky ones who end up with long Covid or worse. I am not willing to put my life on hold forever and I'm not going to waste a lot of energy stressing about it.
Everything you've said has value. Did you fly to Texas? How long was the flight? For me to go home means at least a 13 or 14 hr flight, changing planes somewhere because there is no direct flight Rome--Minneapolis. The possibilities for acquiring COVID on route are endless. What if I bring the SA variant home to Mom (she's on a farm and fairly isolated)? She could die because I go home to visit. The SA variant has been confirmed in Rome. 2 weeks ago a man returned from Mozambique. His entire family has it.
So, yes, I'm weighing my options very carefully. Things will be completely different in a month or month and a half.11 -
When I said things will probably be entirely different in a month and a half, I should explain that the forecast is not for the better. The experts here expect a spike in cases in January. That's when my SIL said they'd like me to come home, because my brother (who lives with my mother and is a NVax) always goes to Mexico for a month or two in January and February. My SIL said that they are also planning a trip for FEB.
My husband (who loves my family) said "Are they nuts? January and February are the absolute worse 2 months to go to Minnesota", and of course, COVID will be spiking. Also, there are 7 of us. Being the oldest, I always feel responsible. It's easy to guilt-trip me.13 -
snowflake954 wrote: »When I said things will probably be entirely different in a month and a half, I should explain that the forecast is not for the better. The experts here expect a spike in cases in January. That's when my SIL said they'd like me to come home, because my brother (who lives with my mother and is a NVax) always goes to Mexico for a month or two in January and February. My SIL said that they are also planning a trip for FEB.
My husband (who loves my family) said "Are they nuts? January and February are the absolute worse 2 months to go to Minnesota", and of course, COVID will be spiking. Also, there are 7 of us. Being the oldest, I always feel responsible. It's easy to guilt-trip me.
That is a lot of variables to weigh. I don't envy you that tough calculus. Especially when people in the same living group don't have the same risk tolerance (or approach to risk entirely). The public messaging here has been to plan your togetherness around the risk to the most vulnerable person. Maybe the unvaccinated brother can plan his trip to be away for the duration of the covid spike? Not sure about Mexico (maybe someone on the thread knows), but many countries require proof of vaccination in addition to proof of negative test result to enter.2 -
snowflake954 wrote: »When I said things will probably be entirely different in a month and a half, I should explain that the forecast is not for the better. The experts here expect a spike in cases in January. That's when my SIL said they'd like me to come home, because my brother (who lives with my mother and is a NVax) always goes to Mexico for a month or two in January and February. My SIL said that they are also planning a trip for FEB.
My husband (who loves my family) said "Are they nuts? January and February are the absolute worse 2 months to go to Minnesota", and of course, COVID will be spiking. Also, there are 7 of us. Being the oldest, I always feel responsible. It's easy to guilt-trip me.
First of all, I agree with your husband; I live in South Dakota and would never choose to come here in the dead of winter. Personally, I'd try to wait for more information before making travel plans. How fast will omicron spread in places with better vaccine uptake? Will it be milder illnesses or more severe?5 -
BurnTheButter wrote: »Good God people just buy what you need! If everyone just buys what they need we will all be ok!
This thread was started in the spring of 2020 as the first wave of COVID-19 hit the US when everything shut down and nobody knew what was going to happen.6 -
One of the most diligent people I know, just told me she's tested positive. She got her booster a couple weeks ago, hardly goes anywhere that's not important and if she does go out, it's always masked. It's getting so discouraging.14
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The gov of NY declared a state of emergency in anticipation of Omicrons arrival. It goes into effect Dec 3. 🥵
In one way.. preemptively declaring a SOE allows for a faster response and is highly diligent.. on the other hand.. I’m asking myself - what do they know about Omicron that we don’t?
There is so much we don’t know about the new variant. Only thing to do in is keep taking precautions. IMHO
I and my spouse used to do well over a dozen international flights+ per year pre Covid. Now… it’s a tap dance of regulations and being anxious.
I’m married to a European and going to see relatives internationally is complicated to say the least. We rapid test, PCR test, quarantine. Repeat.
@snowflake954 - there is a PCR test center at MSP airport similar to Fiumicino & JFK.
If it’s helpful - https://www.mspairport.com/airport/covid-19-testing-site
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The following is just my summary of what I read this afternoon from virologists/epidemiologists I follow on twitter and FB, so please feel free to take it with a grain of salt!
Don't know if/how much omicron might evade vaccines. Remember that vaccine protection is not all or nothing. At most, it would just make vaxxed people slightly more likely to get infected. It's not like everyone goes back to square one.
It is not known if omicron will out compete Delta, as there wasn't much Delta in S Africa. If omicron IS becoming dominant in SA, it's out competing whatever variant they had.
Not enough data to judge severity of omicron, but the small initial sample size is promising. In fact, it would actually be good if omicron out competes Delta but is less severe, which is possible.
Vaccines would most likely just need to be tweaked, if even that is necessary. Initial data sounds like still all (or practically all) hospitalizations are unvaxxed.
Also remember there have been other variants of concern that looked dangerous in one place they got a foothold but never managed to get traction anywhere else.11 -
Yep, if Omicron is more transmissible but milder, it could be a blessing. Praying!The following is just my summary of what I read this afternoon from virologists/epidemiologists I follow on twitter and FB, so please feel free to take it with a grain of salt!
Don't know if/how much omicron might evade vaccines. Remember that vaccine protection is not all or nothing. At most, it would just make vaxxed people slightly more likely to get infected. It's not like everyone goes back to square one.
It is not known if omicron will out compete Delta, as there wasn't much Delta in S Africa. If omicron IS becoming dominant in SA, it's out competing whatever variant they had.
Not enough data to judge severity of omicron, but the small initial sample size is promising. In fact, it would actually be good if omicron out competes Delta but is less severe, which is possible.
Vaccines would most likely just need to be tweaked, if even that is necessary. Initial data sounds like still all (or practically all) hospitalizations are unvaxxed.
Also remember there have been other variants of concern that looked dangerous in one place they got a foothold but never managed to get traction anywhere else.
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