The Challenges of Cutting Government Spending

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Azdak
Azdak Posts: 8,281 Member
A common complaint is that "government is too big" or "we need to reduce the size of the government". This argument has likely been heard since 1789.

Needless to say, the Federal Government in the US is pretty big. Counting only civilians, the Washington Post estimates the number of federal government FTEs (Full Time Equivalent positions) at 2.65 million in 2010. Most people don't know this, but the ACTUAL number of federal employees has been dropping since 1990 and the RATIO of federal government employees to the total population has been decreasing as well (Under Obama, that number is the lowest in decades).

The same with Federal government spending. Despite the fact that Federal Tax rates -- both individual and corporate--are at historically low levels, most people--conservative and liberal--think that cutting government spending is a good idea--we just disagree on how to cut.

However, government employment and government spending play significant roles in our economy. You can't just whack large chunks of it without having significant effects. Plus, there are entrenched and powerful groups that have a vested interest in maintaining certain types of government spending and the leverage to make it happen.

Nowhere is this more true that with defense spending. The US spends more on military and defense spending that practically the rest of the world combined. Defense spending makes up almost half of all federal discretionary spending. The challenges of cutting defense spending or of changing the armed forces to meet updated global conditions are described in an article posted on MSNBC this morning:

http://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/07/28/12991946-the-m1-abrams-the-army-tank-that-could-not-be-stopped?lite

The army has over 5,000 M1 Abrams tanks. 3,000 are sitting idle at a remote military base in the west. While the tank is huge and a deadly weapon when used against other tanks, use in Iraq has shown it is vulnerable to IEDs. The Army has been refurbishing the tanks and has completed about half the units. Rather than spend money on the remaining tanks, they want to delay the program for 3 years and devote their efforts to redesigning the tank from top to bottom.

Basically, the Army is saying it does not want to spend $3 billion refurbishing tanks that it no longer needs.

But, here is the problem:
Its proposal would idle a large factory in Lima, Ohio, as well as halt work at dozens of subcontractors in Pennsylvania, Michigan and other states.

Opposing the Pentagon’s plans is Abrams manufacturer General Dynamics, a nationwide employer that has pumped millions of dollars into congressional elections over the last decade. The tank’s supporters on Capitol Hill say they are desperate to save jobs in their districts and concerned about undermining America’s military capability.

Local jobs and campaign donations. The first has always been important to local legislators, the second is now the primary driving force behind just about anything the government does these days. (And this is true for both parties).

Right now, the huge defense contractor is winning--Congress continues to appropriate money for refurbishing the tanks.

Fights like this must be fought any time any change is attempted for military spending or strategy--whether it's a reduction in any type of weapons program, base closings, etc. Even in an area such as national defense, special-interest groups are often given more consideration than national interests. And I can understand how businesses and communities that depend on the jobs would fight hard to preserve those jobs.

And this holds true for other government programs as well.

I am not proposing a specific solution, nor am I saying that we should not try to reduce government spending and size. Just pointing out that cutting government spending is not as easy as waving a Magic Budget Pen™, and that there are real-word consequences to these decisions. And, finally, to say that people should be skeptical to the point of contempt and derision of any politician who glibly promises to make dramatic cuts.

Replies

  • MzMiller1215
    MzMiller1215 Posts: 633 Member
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    I couldn't agree with you more! I think what a lot of people don't consider either, is how cutting government jobs will affect our economy as well. These are peoples' lives we are talking about. There is no easy solution and we can't just cut, cut, cut without thinking about the ripple effects.
  • CasperO
    CasperO Posts: 2,913 Member
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    Your post reminds me of a cute old fable I read somewhere:

    ""Two great economists were being given a tour of a large government project. Thousands of sturdy men were sweating in the sun, working hard with shovels and wheelbarrows, digging a great reservoir.

    The economists both asked - "Why are the men using shovels, and not a bulldozer?".

    The answer given was - "Well, this isn't really about the reservoir at all, this is a jobs program".

    Both economists had the same answer - "Well if it's really a jobs program, why do they have shovels and not teaspoons?".

    Milton Friedman was being facetious - John Maynard Keynes was perfectly sincere"".
  • Dragonwolf
    Dragonwolf Posts: 5,600 Member
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    I think that the "but it keeps jobs!" argument is a bit of a red herring. Yes, jobs will be cut, people will be put out of work for a short time, it will hurt. However, on the whole, they will recover, as the old plants are repurposed and other industries come in (or, in some cases, other companies within the same industry).

    A good example is Detroit. They were one of the hardest cities hit when the Big 3 (and the economy as a whole) collapsed, and while they still have high unemployment compared to other cities, it's steadily declining (1) as the city recovers.

    Manufacturing jobs are relatively transferrable at the line level. Does it really matter if you're welding together plates of a tank's shell or the joints of some part of a car? How much does it matter if what you're inspecting as a QA person is the barrel of cannon, or a Coleman propane tank? Not really. Sure, they'll have different standards of quality, but the tasks are similar enough that a person could get a job doing one after having done the other.

    I think one of the problems with those that see it as "keeping jobs" is that most of the people in government positions are of the Baby Boomer/GenX generations, which means they're used to "cradle-to-grave" employment. You start a job when you're 18 or 20, you retire from that same employer when you're 65, and that employer gives you a pension for the rest of your life. That is, for better or worse, a thing of the past (albeit, such employment would be nice to hang on to) in more and more industries, for a number of reasons. Now, I'm not saying "cut everyone loose and let them find their own new employment," that's where doing things like transferring pension/retirement funds to other accounts for the employees would come into play, or offering early retirement (with benefits as though they were retiring at their planned age) for those coming up on it. Another option would be to phase in the cuts, so the local markets aren't flooded with available workers. Such things would lessen the blow to the unemployment levels, and help keep their careers from being interrupted in the long-term view. Additionally, the state's Job and Family Services Department can provide assistance to the employees for finding a new job.

    1. http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=city:PS260250&fdim_y=seasonality:U&dl=en&hl=en&q=detroit+unemployment+stats#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&fdim_y=seasonality:U&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=city:PS260250&ifdim=country&tstart=1109566800000&tend=1338350400000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false
  • EvanKeel
    EvanKeel Posts: 1,904 Member
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    I think claiming that the "but it keeps jobs" is a red herring has different meanings depending whether or not we're in a recession. Then again, I have almost zero faith in the market doing what's best for workers when left to its own devices.
  • Bahet
    Bahet Posts: 1,254 Member
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    Detroit's unemployment isn't dropping because of recovery. It's dropping because people are giving up and moving away.

    I think a lot of the "Well cut government jobs then!" people don't really have a clue either. They think it's all military, postal workers, IRS, and politicians. It's not. There are doctors and nurses, accountants, secretaries, IT specialists, janitors, cashiers, security guards, teachers, chefs, etc - every single job in the private sector has a public sector counterpart.
  • nehtaeh
    nehtaeh Posts: 2,977 Member
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    Detroit's unemployment isn't dropping because of recovery. It's dropping because people are giving up and moving away.

    I think a lot of the "Well cut government jobs then!" people don't really have a clue either. They think it's all military, postal workers, IRS, and politicians. It's not. There are doctors and nurses, accountants, secretaries, IT specialists, janitors, cashiers, security guards, teachers, chefs, etc - every single job in the private sector has a public sector counterpart.

    True about Detroit. Also, the shop jobs that you think it's oh-so-easy to repurpose is not so easy. It doesn't happen quite how you think it does. Sure, some shops get repurposed, most are torn down. So, instead of moving that shop job to another industry it is simply just gone. It's happened to quite a few shops that I can think of off-hand in the Flint and Lansing (Michigan) areas. Flint is a HUGE example of how just moving to a new industry just does not happen. GM built that city up big, then left, and the city is worth a whole lot of nothing these days. Crime and drugs have taken over. If your house gets broken into, forget it, the cops don't care. And the criminals know this.
  • Dragonwolf
    Dragonwolf Posts: 5,600 Member
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    Detroit's unemployment isn't dropping because of recovery. It's dropping because people are giving up and moving away.

    I think a lot of the "Well cut government jobs then!" people don't really have a clue either. They think it's all military, postal workers, IRS, and politicians. It's not. There are doctors and nurses, accountants, secretaries, IT specialists, janitors, cashiers, security guards, teachers, chefs, etc - every single job in the private sector has a public sector counterpart.

    True about Detroit. Also, the shop jobs that you think it's oh-so-easy to repurpose is not so easy. It doesn't happen quite how you think it does. Sure, some shops get repurposed, most are torn down. So, instead of moving that shop job to another industry it is simply just gone. It's happened to quite a few shops that I can think of off-hand in the Flint and Lansing (Michigan) areas. Flint is a HUGE example of how just moving to a new industry just does not happen. GM built that city up big, then left, and the city is worth a whole lot of nothing these days. Crime and drugs have taken over. If your house gets broken into, forget it, the cops don't care. And the criminals know this.

    To clarify, I didn't say they were "oh-so-easy", I said they were relatively easy. As in, a person with 20 years experience in a single manufacturing position will likely have an easier time getting a new job than a person with 20 years experience in a similar single software development position (because industries like manufacturing don't change as fast as those like software; in manufacturing, having a deep-and-narrow experience or skill set isn't as much of a detriment as it is in software in that kind of time frame). Take a programmer from JP Morgan Chase, or one of the other banks, and have them try to get a job, and they're almost guaranteed to NOT find a job unless they do something to drastically update their skillset (ie - go back to college), because they have 20 years of experience in a dead language.

    I think one of the underlying ideas behind the whole "cut government spending" isn't just cutting the military, or cutting government jobs, or whathaveyou, but rather that people feel the government is being run inefficiently. I'm inclined to agree, given that I'm of the opinion that government is largely run by "career politicians" (that is, people, regardless of their backgrounds, who have made a career out of politics and have been out of their background position for long enough that they are losing, or have lost, touch with the people who live those positions currently). Their primary focus is on maintaining their position, so they pander to the people paying for them to be there, regardless of the cost to the American people. It's this "fat" (or what's often called "pork barrel spending") that most people (on all sides) have the most issue with. Cut that and then see where things are. When you make yourself more efficient, you allow yourself to take on other projects.

    For example, the government could overhaul the tax code. In doing so, it may cut (let's just say) 25,000 jobs. *However,* because they saved so much money from those cut jobs, they were able to redirect that to creating government-run healthcare providers, creating 20,000 long-term jobs (medical staff, administration, etc), and 75,000 short term ones (building construction, project management, architecture, etc). (As an added side effect, the overhauled tax code made it impossible for CEOs of large companies to get thousands or millions back in taxes, and they paid what they had to pay, resulting in lower taxes for everyone.)
  • LastSixtySix
    LastSixtySix Posts: 352 Member
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    This problem in Ohio highlights the systemic problem of the current social and economic system. To sustain it, unlimited growth is needed … that is, a constant war. Anyone else get the sense that this economic system can only hum along smoothly if it is funding war? Exactly what percent of the budget funds the Pentagon?

    While we all write the checks - albeit unwittingly - for this type of insanity, at least we can be thankful that in Lima, Ohio, General Dynamics is still willing to front the paychecks directly, even though the end product is nothing more than high-priced scrap metal.

    Americans have not agreed upon a self-sustaining non-growth economic system yet and because of that failure we are perpetually trapped in a vicious cycle. Either that or, "The essence of a self-reliant and autonomous culture is an unshakeable egoism" as H. L. Mencken said.

    Of course, he also wrote that "Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats!" Personally, I'm glad for the reminder to keep hounding my federal elected congresspeople to stay out of bed with the war mongers. Easier said than done. . .still, worth the fight!

    -Debra
  • nehtaeh
    nehtaeh Posts: 2,977 Member
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    Detroit's unemployment isn't dropping because of recovery. It's dropping because people are giving up and moving away.

    I think a lot of the "Well cut government jobs then!" people don't really have a clue either. They think it's all military, postal workers, IRS, and politicians. It's not. There are doctors and nurses, accountants, secretaries, IT specialists, janitors, cashiers, security guards, teachers, chefs, etc - every single job in the private sector has a public sector counterpart.

    True about Detroit. Also, the shop jobs that you think it's oh-so-easy to repurpose is not so easy. It doesn't happen quite how you think it does. Sure, some shops get repurposed, most are torn down. So, instead of moving that shop job to another industry it is simply just gone. It's happened to quite a few shops that I can think of off-hand in the Flint and Lansing (Michigan) areas. Flint is a HUGE example of how just moving to a new industry just does not happen. GM built that city up big, then left, and the city is worth a whole lot of nothing these days. Crime and drugs have taken over. If your house gets broken into, forget it, the cops don't care. And the criminals know this.

    To clarify, I didn't say they were "oh-so-easy", I said they were relatively easy. As in, a person with 20 years experience in a single manufacturing position will likely have an easier time getting a new job than a person with 20 years experience in a similar single software development position (because industries like manufacturing don't change as fast as those like software; in manufacturing, having a deep-and-narrow experience or skill set isn't as much of a detriment as it is in software in that kind of time frame). Take a programmer from JP Morgan Chase, or one of the other banks, and have them try to get a job, and they're almost guaranteed to NOT find a job unless they do something to drastically update their skillset (ie - go back to college), because they have 20 years of experience in a dead language.

    But it's just pointless to say that. Sure, a shop job is a shop job. Bring in another company and they can do a different job. The problem is that there is no other job. It's not as simple as to say they have an easier time donig another manufacturing position when there is no other manufacturing position. They will have to go learn another skill, just like the outdated computer programmer.
  • lour441
    lour441 Posts: 543 Member
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    Detroit's unemployment isn't dropping because of recovery. It's dropping because people are giving up and moving away.

    I think a lot of the "Well cut government jobs then!" people don't really have a clue either. They think it's all military, postal workers, IRS, and politicians. It's not. There are doctors and nurses, accountants, secretaries, IT specialists, janitors, cashiers, security guards, teachers, chefs, etc - every single job in the private sector has a public sector counterpart.

    True about Detroit. Also, the shop jobs that you think it's oh-so-easy to repurpose is not so easy. It doesn't happen quite how you think it does. Sure, some shops get repurposed, most are torn down. So, instead of moving that shop job to another industry it is simply just gone. It's happened to quite a few shops that I can think of off-hand in the Flint and Lansing (Michigan) areas. Flint is a HUGE example of how just moving to a new industry just does not happen. GM built that city up big, then left, and the city is worth a whole lot of nothing these days. Crime and drugs have taken over. If your house gets broken into, forget it, the cops don't care. And the criminals know this.

    To clarify, I didn't say they were "oh-so-easy", I said they were relatively easy. As in, a person with 20 years experience in a single manufacturing position will likely have an easier time getting a new job than a person with 20 years experience in a similar single software development position (because industries like manufacturing don't change as fast as those like software; in manufacturing, having a deep-and-narrow experience or skill set isn't as much of a detriment as it is in software in that kind of time frame). Take a programmer from JP Morgan Chase, or one of the other banks, and have them try to get a job, and they're almost guaranteed to NOT find a job unless they do something to drastically update their skillset (ie - go back to college), because they have 20 years of experience in a dead language.

    I think one of the underlying ideas behind the whole "cut government spending" isn't just cutting the military, or cutting government jobs, or whathaveyou, but rather that people feel the government is being run inefficiently. I'm inclined to agree, given that I'm of the opinion that government is largely run by "career politicians" (that is, people, regardless of their backgrounds, who have made a career out of politics and have been out of their background position for long enough that they are losing, or have lost, touch with the people who live those positions currently). Their primary focus is on maintaining their position, so they pander to the people paying for them to be there, regardless of the cost to the American people. It's this "fat" (or what's often called "pork barrel spending") that most people (on all sides) have the most issue with. Cut that and then see where things are. When you make yourself more efficient, you allow yourself to take on other projects.

    For example, the government could overhaul the tax code. In doing so, it may cut (let's just say) 25,000 jobs. *However,* because they saved so much money from those cut jobs, they were able to redirect that to creating government-run healthcare providers, creating 20,000 long-term jobs (medical staff, administration, etc), and 75,000 short term ones (building construction, project management, architecture, etc). (As an added side effect, the overhauled tax code made it impossible for CEOs of large companies to get thousands or millions back in taxes, and they paid what they had to pay, resulting in lower taxes for everyone.)

    I don't think comparing experienced software engineers to workers experienced in a manufacturing position is the best way to get your point across. An experienced software engineer regardless of what languages they used will have very little difficulty getting employment. Once the manufacturing position is gone that's it. If the software engineer's job goes away they can easily leverage their experience into a new position. The language is not what gets you a job. Knowing wtf you are doing is what gets you a job :wink: To your specific example, I would be very surprised to find an out of work programmer with banking/finance experience.

    oh so with regards to cutting government spending... It's not going to happen unless it is forced to happen. No politician will ever do it willingly as it would be political suicide.
  • castadiva
    castadiva Posts: 2,016 Member
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    My guess is that the best way of cutting government spending is to operate departments like individual private sector companies, demanding efficiency, results and a return on the investment for taxpayer shareholders. At least in the UK, there are too many government departments which spend money like water on endless 'consultations' and rebranding exercises, among other pointless exercises. The Department for Health doesn't need to be cool - it needs to be efficient. That means cutting un-necessary expenditure on PR etc and focusing on making the patients better. It also needs to mean an end to 'a job for life' in the civil service. If you're not achieving results, out the door with you. Better for the taxpayer and the patient (one and the same in this example).

    However, as lour said above, to try to do it would be political suicide.
  • nehtaeh
    nehtaeh Posts: 2,977 Member
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    My guess is that the best way of cutting government spending is to operate departments like individual private sector companies, demanding efficiency, results and a return on the investment for taxpayer shareholders. At least in the UK, there are too many government departments which spend money like water on endless 'consultations' and rebranding exercises, among other pointless exercises. The Department for Health doesn't need to be cool - it needs to be efficient. That means cutting un-necessary expenditure on PR etc and focusing on making the patients better. It also needs to mean an end to 'a job for life' in the civil service. If you're not achieving results, out the door with you. Better for the taxpayer and the patient (one and the same in this example).

    However, as lour said above, to try to do it would be political suicide.

    Well said.
  • EvanKeel
    EvanKeel Posts: 1,904 Member
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    I don't think comparing experienced software engineers to workers experienced in a manufacturing position is the best way to get your point across. An experienced software engineer regardless of what languages they used will have very little difficulty getting employment. Once the manufacturing position is gone that's it. If the software engineer's job goes away they can easily leverage their experience into a new position. The language is not what gets you a job. Knowing wtf you are doing is what gets you a job :wink: To your specific example, I would be very surprised to find an out of work programmer with banking/finance experience.

    oh so with regards to cutting government spending... It's not going to happen unless it is forced to happen. No politician will ever do it willingly as it would be political suicide.

    Actually it's a decent comparison, at least for some. Let's take my father, the retired systems analyst. For years and years he worked with mainframes. If he had gotten fired before he retired, it would have been be quite difficult for him to find another job because the technology simply jumped to a different area. He would have had to have learned to work with servers in a new way first.

    Sure his skills in programming using the languages he knew would have helped him learn new technologies just out a frame of reference, but the same can be said for a factory worker.
  • Azdak
    Azdak Posts: 8,281 Member
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    My guess is that the best way of cutting government spending is to operate departments like individual private sector companies, demanding efficiency, results and a return on the investment for taxpayer shareholders. At least in the UK, there are too many government departments which spend money like water on endless 'consultations' and rebranding exercises, among other pointless exercises. The Department for Health doesn't need to be cool - it needs to be efficient. That means cutting un-necessary expenditure on PR etc and focusing on making the patients better. It also needs to mean an end to 'a job for life' in the civil service. If you're not achieving results, out the door with you. Better for the taxpayer and the patient (one and the same in this example).

    However, as lour said above, to try to do it would be political suicide.

    I'm all for increased efficiency, but I would disagree that "private sector companies" are the ideal model in all cases.

    What's good for a private company--relentless pursuit of profit and growth--is often the antithesis of what people want from a government agency. Corporations today often engage in "race to the bottom" -- cutting jobs, lowering wages and benefits, doing whatever is necessary to achieve success. In a capitalist-based economic system, one can make the argument that this is necessary and proper--that greed provides the driving force.

    In many ways, it is the role of government to act as a referee of sorts--set the rules, define the playing field, prevent participants from taking unfair advantage, protect society as a whole from the potential negative consequences of unbridled greed. In many societies, government exists to also provide a basic "safety net"--to "limit the losses" if you will of those who cannot succeed in the system, to provide a minimum basic levels of care that is available to all citizens.

    So the mission and "business plan" of a government agency is often completely different than that of a private-sector business. Certainly we can and should have standards of performance that are relevant and effective for any government agency--I just don't know that "return on investment" is the best term to use or means the same thing.

    Now I am moving into more subjective/ideological territory, but I also think that government has historically played a role in modeling positive hiring and employment practices.

    For all the negative aspects of patronage, for example, it and the government jobs it provided in the past provided a gateway for certain immigrant/ethnic groups to start their pursuit of the American dream, at times when the private sector denied them access for reasons of prejudice and bigotry.

    Programs like affirmative action and minority set-asides, as seriously flawed as they are, have also provided a lot of opportunities for groups who were ignored by the private sector to receive educations and develop businesses. It has allowed millions of people an opportunity they might not have had to join the middle class and contribute to society as a whole.

    Requirements for "green" buildings have helped open up new markets and develop new industries and products. Governments requiring these practices not only stimulated growth in the private sector with market opportunities, but they have taken on the risk that private companies might not have been able to accept.

    I am just proposing another way of looking at the "public vs private" argument and suggesting that supposed "private sector efficiency" might not be the answer to everything. I am sure someone else can draw up counterarguments to what I have mentioned--and I would probably agree with most of them. In the end, it gets to be a question of how each person evaluates the total picture.


    Many private companies, esp those with shareholders, are slaves to the short-term balance sheet, often to the detriment of their long-term health.
  • lour441
    lour441 Posts: 543 Member
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    I don't think comparing experienced software engineers to workers experienced in a manufacturing position is the best way to get your point across. An experienced software engineer regardless of what languages they used will have very little difficulty getting employment. Once the manufacturing position is gone that's it. If the software engineer's job goes away they can easily leverage their experience into a new position. The language is not what gets you a job. Knowing wtf you are doing is what gets you a job :wink: To your specific example, I would be very surprised to find an out of work programmer with banking/finance experience.

    oh so with regards to cutting government spending... It's not going to happen unless it is forced to happen. No politician will ever do it willingly as it would be political suicide.

    Actually it's a decent comparison, at least for some. Let's take my father, the retired systems analyst. For years and years he worked with mainframes. If he had gotten fired before he retired, it would have been be quite difficult for him to find another job because the technology simply jumped to a different area. He would have had to have learned to work with servers in a new way first.

    Sure his skills in programming using the languages he knew would have helped him learn new technologies just out a frame of reference, but the same can be said for a factory worker.

    Actually it's not a decent comparison at all. The question was who would have an easier time getting a job. We are basically comparing an industry (manufacturing) that is bleeding jobs to an industry (IT) that has more jobs then there are skilled workers. It goes without saying that there would be a learning curve for anyone changing jobs but your outdated software engineer would have a much easier time getting a new job just for the fact that there are jobs to be had unlike in manufacturing.

    I have been a software engineer for 20 years. I have changed jobs 3 times. My first job was on mainframes coding in assembly and Fortran. My second job was coding embedded devices with C/C++. My current job is windows development with c# and .net. The only thing I carried over from each job was general experience. If you are an unemployed software engineer you are doing something wrong.
  • EvanKeel
    EvanKeel Posts: 1,904 Member
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    I don't think comparing experienced software engineers to workers experienced in a manufacturing position is the best way to get your point across. An experienced software engineer regardless of what languages they used will have very little difficulty getting employment. Once the manufacturing position is gone that's it. If the software engineer's job goes away they can easily leverage their experience into a new position. The language is not what gets you a job. Knowing wtf you are doing is what gets you a job :wink: To your specific example, I would be very surprised to find an out of work programmer with banking/finance experience.

    oh so with regards to cutting government spending... It's not going to happen unless it is forced to happen. No politician will ever do it willingly as it would be political suicide.

    Actually it's a decent comparison, at least for some. Let's take my father, the retired systems analyst. For years and years he worked with mainframes. If he had gotten fired before he retired, it would have been be quite difficult for him to find another job because the technology simply jumped to a different area. He would have had to have learned to work with servers in a new way first.

    Sure his skills in programming using the languages he knew would have helped him learn new technologies just out a frame of reference, but the same can be said for a factory worker.

    Actually it's not a decent comparison at all. The question was who would have an easier time getting a job. We are basically comparing an industry (manufacturing) that is bleeding jobs to an industry (IT) that has more jobs then there are skilled workers. It goes without saying that there would be a learning curve for anyone changing jobs but your outdated software engineer would have a much easier time getting a new job just for the fact that there are jobs to be had unlike in manufacturing.

    I have been a software engineer for 20 years. I have changed jobs 3 times. My first job was on mainframes coding in assembly and Fortran. My second job was coding embedded devices with C/C++. My current job is windows development with c# and .net. The only thing I carried over from each job was general experience. If you are an unemployed software engineer you are doing something wrong.

    You're allowed your opinion based on your experience. I happen to disagree with you. Particularly when you say
    but your outdated software engineer would have a much easier time getting a new job just for the fact that there are jobs to be had unlike in manufacturing.

    It's pure speculation with a number of factors at play. For example, both industries have regions of the country that are more ideal for either position. Software engineers have an edge there, I'll grant.. That may change as more companies look to home shoring options, but I'm not convinced by your argument. Your assessment of out of work software engineers is arrogant and nothing more than a generalization.
  • Dragonwolf
    Dragonwolf Posts: 5,600 Member
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    My guess is that the best way of cutting government spending is to operate departments like individual private sector companies, demanding efficiency, results and a return on the investment for taxpayer shareholders. At least in the UK, there are too many government departments which spend money like water on endless 'consultations' and rebranding exercises, among other pointless exercises. The Department for Health doesn't need to be cool - it needs to be efficient. That means cutting un-necessary expenditure on PR etc and focusing on making the patients better. It also needs to mean an end to 'a job for life' in the civil service. If you're not achieving results, out the door with you. Better for the taxpayer and the patient (one and the same in this example).

    However, as lour said above, to try to do it would be political suicide.

    I'm all for increased efficiency, but I would disagree that "private sector companies" are the ideal model in all cases.

    What's good for a private company--relentless pursuit of profit and growth--is often the antithesis of what people want from a government agency. Corporations today often engage in "race to the bottom" -- cutting jobs, lowering wages and benefits, doing whatever is necessary to achieve success. In a capitalist-based economic system, one can make the argument that this is necessary and proper--that greed provides the driving force.

    In many ways, it is the role of government to act as a referee of sorts--set the rules, define the playing field, prevent participants from taking unfair advantage, protect society as a whole from the potential negative consequences of unbridled greed. In many societies, government exists to also provide a basic "safety net"--to "limit the losses" if you will of those who cannot succeed in the system, to provide a minimum basic levels of care that is available to all citizens.

    So the mission and "business plan" of a government agency is often completely different than that of a private-sector business. Certainly we can and should have standards of performance that are relevant and effective for any government agency--I just don't know that "return on investment" is the best term to use or means the same thing.

    Now I am moving into more subjective/ideological territory, but I also think that government has historically played a role in modeling positive hiring and employment practices.

    For all the negative aspects of patronage, for example, it and the government jobs it provided in the past provided a gateway for certain immigrant/ethnic groups to start their pursuit of the American dream, at times when the private sector denied them access for reasons of prejudice and bigotry.

    Programs like affirmative action and minority set-asides, as seriously flawed as they are, have also provided a lot of opportunities for groups who were ignored by the private sector to receive educations and develop businesses. It has allowed millions of people an opportunity they might not have had to join the middle class and contribute to society as a whole.

    Requirements for "green" buildings have helped open up new markets and develop new industries and products. Governments requiring these practices not only stimulated growth in the private sector with market opportunities, but they have taken on the risk that private companies might not have been able to accept.

    I am just proposing another way of looking at the "public vs private" argument and suggesting that supposed "private sector efficiency" might not be the answer to everything. I am sure someone else can draw up counterarguments to what I have mentioned--and I would probably agree with most of them. In the end, it gets to be a question of how each person evaluates the total picture.


    Many private companies, esp those with shareholders, are slaves to the short-term balance sheet, often to the detriment of their long-term health.

    While I agree that the public sector doesn't need to exactly mirror the private sector, I think the public sector would benefit from applying some of the principles in place in the private sector. Additionally, I think your view of the private sector as a whole, while warranted thanks to the large conglomarates, overlooks what a lot of smaller (and in some cases, not so small) companies do in regards to ethics, both in how they treat their people, and in balancing cost vs quality.

    Worthington Industries (specifically, Worthington Cylinders) is a good example of a company that balances cost/ROI vs quality equation. Worthington Industries is a steel processing company, their Cylinders division holds something like 80% market share of their industry. Propane tanks (including the Blue Rhino and Coleman tanks for grills), helium/compressed air tanks (including Balloon Time tanks), and pretty much anything else that's cylindrical in shape and made of steel is very likely to be a Worthington Cylinder.

    You know how they got there? By being the best at what they do, and selling high-quality products. Their failure rate is next to zero. They do tend to be a little pricier than the cheaper manufacturers, but consumers are more than willing to pay a little more for the higher quality (especially if/when their skimping on quality for lowest price backfires and the item fails on them). They don't do a "race to the bottom," sacrificing quality for pure numbers (in fact, the VP won't bat an eye at spending money if it means improving the quality of their work in some form or another). And you know what? They make money hand over fist.

    There are a lot of companies like this, that value quality over short term profits, and it's these companies that I think the government could learn from. Whether people like it or not, the government is itself a form of business. It may not be in business to make money, but its actions do have an effect on the economy, and it has to be able to fund its initiatives somehow. I don't think it's too much to ask that they do more to keep the budget balanced and not go into debt up to their eyeballs (it may be inevitable to have to borrow some sometimes, but you shouldn't be borrowing more than you're bringing in to begin with).
  • Dragonwolf
    Dragonwolf Posts: 5,600 Member
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    I don't think comparing experienced software engineers to workers experienced in a manufacturing position is the best way to get your point across. An experienced software engineer regardless of what languages they used will have very little difficulty getting employment. Once the manufacturing position is gone that's it. If the software engineer's job goes away they can easily leverage their experience into a new position. The language is not what gets you a job. Knowing wtf you are doing is what gets you a job :wink: To your specific example, I would be very surprised to find an out of work programmer with banking/finance experience.

    oh so with regards to cutting government spending... It's not going to happen unless it is forced to happen. No politician will ever do it willingly as it would be political suicide.

    Actually it's a decent comparison, at least for some. Let's take my father, the retired systems analyst. For years and years he worked with mainframes. If he had gotten fired before he retired, it would have been be quite difficult for him to find another job because the technology simply jumped to a different area. He would have had to have learned to work with servers in a new way first.

    Sure his skills in programming using the languages he knew would have helped him learn new technologies just out a frame of reference, but the same can be said for a factory worker.

    Actually it's not a decent comparison at all. The question was who would have an easier time getting a job. We are basically comparing an industry (manufacturing) that is bleeding jobs to an industry (IT) that has more jobs then there are skilled workers. It goes without saying that there would be a learning curve for anyone changing jobs but your outdated software engineer would have a much easier time getting a new job just for the fact that there are jobs to be had unlike in manufacturing.

    I have been a software engineer for 20 years. I have changed jobs 3 times. My first job was on mainframes coding in assembly and Fortran. My second job was coding embedded devices with C/C++. My current job is windows development with c# and .net. The only thing I carried over from each job was general experience. If you are an unemployed software engineer you are doing something wrong.

    According to the BLS, the unemployment rate for the Information sector has been on par with Durable Goods and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing for the better part of the past decade. What difference there is can be pretty easily chalked up to the Information sector's better ability to freelance, taking them off of the "unemployed" list, if only technically (and the month-for-month differences since 2008 being the lag time between when Manufacturing was affected and when Information was affected by the recession).

    According to the BLS, there are about 360,000 total jobs for "Computer Programmer" (average growth), 900,000 for "Software Developer" (fast growth). While "Assembers and Fabricators" have 1,600,000 jobs (slow growth), "Machinists and Tool and Die Makers" have 400,000 jobs (slow growth), and "Metal And Plastic Machine Workers" have 900,000 jobs (slow growth). Even at a growth rate of nearly double the average, "Software Developer" isn't projected to hit over a million jobs until 2020 (to compare, "Team Assemblers," a subset of "Assemblers and Fabricators" will have only about 100,000 fewer jobs than "Software Developers" total number in 2020). Yes, growth has slowed, but "bleeding jobs"? Not according to the BLS.

    http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm
    http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm
    http://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/assemblers-and-fabricators.htm
    http://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/machinists-and-tool-and-die-makers.htm
    http://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/metal-and-plastic-machine-workers.htm

    Also, the problem with software engineers and employment isn't necessarily that the job-seekers are "doing something wrong," but that they have to go through HR, which typically don't have the slightest clue that anything that isn't explicitly listed in the job ad is transferrable to what is there (programming, and IT in general, are nothing but this giant black box that they even question the usefulness of in many cases). Hell, I've seen job ads that require more years of knowledge with a technology than that technology has even been around. So, when someone with 20 years of COBOL experience tries to apply for a Java position, they're turned down before they ever even get considered for an interview, because they don't have experience with Java, specifically. These situations are especially the case right now, when they *know* (or at least think) there are people out there who exactly fit the role they're trying to fill, and will take a fraction of what their experience should actually merit (I can't count the number of "entry level" ads I found that required 2+ years professional experience, that paid less than my first truly entry level job). And they wonder why they can't fill their positions.

    http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/summary_11_01/unemployed_jobs_quit.htm/ (Additional reading on stats of how long people were unemployed before finding a new job or leaving the workforce, if anyone's interested.)
  • castadiva
    castadiva Posts: 2,016 Member
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    My guess is that the best way of cutting government spending is to operate departments like individual private sector companies, demanding efficiency, results and a return on the investment for taxpayer shareholders. At least in the UK, there are too many government departments which spend money like water on endless 'consultations' and rebranding exercises, among other pointless exercises. The Department for Health doesn't need to be cool - it needs to be efficient. That means cutting un-necessary expenditure on PR etc and focusing on making the patients better. It also needs to mean an end to 'a job for life' in the civil service. If you're not achieving results, out the door with you. Better for the taxpayer and the patient (one and the same in this example).

    However, as lour said above, to try to do it would be political suicide.

    I'm all for increased efficiency, but I would disagree that "private sector companies" are the ideal model in all cases.

    What's good for a private company--relentless pursuit of profit and growth--is often the antithesis of what people want from a government agency. Corporations today often engage in "race to the bottom" -- cutting jobs, lowering wages and benefits, doing whatever is necessary to achieve success. In a capitalist-based economic system, one can make the argument that this is necessary and proper--that greed provides the driving force.

    In many ways, it is the role of government to act as a referee of sorts--set the rules, define the playing field, prevent participants from taking unfair advantage, protect society as a whole from the potential negative consequences of unbridled greed. In many societies, government exists to also provide a basic "safety net"--to "limit the losses" if you will of those who cannot succeed in the system, to provide a minimum basic levels of care that is available to all citizens.

    So the mission and "business plan" of a government agency is often completely different than that of a private-sector business. Certainly we can and should have standards of performance that are relevant and effective for any government agency--I just don't know that "return on investment" is the best term to use or means the same thing.

    Now I am moving into more subjective/ideological territory, but I also think that government has historically played a role in modeling positive hiring and employment practices.

    For all the negative aspects of patronage, for example, it and the government jobs it provided in the past provided a gateway for certain immigrant/ethnic groups to start their pursuit of the American dream, at times when the private sector denied them access for reasons of prejudice and bigotry.

    Programs like affirmative action and minority set-asides, as seriously flawed as they are, have also provided a lot of opportunities for groups who were ignored by the private sector to receive educations and develop businesses. It has allowed millions of people an opportunity they might not have had to join the middle class and contribute to society as a whole.

    Requirements for "green" buildings have helped open up new markets and develop new industries and products. Governments requiring these practices not only stimulated growth in the private sector with market opportunities, but they have taken on the risk that private companies might not have been able to accept.

    I am just proposing another way of looking at the "public vs private" argument and suggesting that supposed "private sector efficiency" might not be the answer to everything. I am sure someone else can draw up counterarguments to what I have mentioned--and I would probably agree with most of them. In the end, it gets to be a question of how each person evaluates the total picture.


    Many private companies, esp those with shareholders, are slaves to the short-term balance sheet, often to the detriment of their long-term health.

    While I agree that the public sector doesn't need to exactly mirror the private sector, I think the public sector would benefit from applying some of the principles in place in the private sector. Additionally, I think your view of the private sector as a whole, while warranted thanks to the large conglomarates, overlooks what a lot of smaller (and in some cases, not so small) companies do in regards to ethics, both in how they treat their people, and in balancing cost vs quality.

    Worthington Industries (specifically, Worthington Cylinders) is a good example of a company that balances cost/ROI vs quality equation. Worthington Industries is a steel processing company, their Cylinders division holds something like 80% market share of their industry. Propane tanks (including the Blue Rhino and Coleman tanks for grills), helium/compressed air tanks (including Balloon Time tanks), and pretty much anything else that's cylindrical in shape and made of steel is very likely to be a Worthington Cylinder.

    You know how they got there? By being the best at what they do, and selling high-quality products. Their failure rate is next to zero. They do tend to be a little pricier than the cheaper manufacturers, but consumers are more than willing to pay a little more for the higher quality (especially if/when their skimping on quality for lowest price backfires and the item fails on them). They don't do a "race to the bottom," sacrificing quality for pure numbers (in fact, the VP won't bat an eye at spending money if it means improving the quality of their work in some form or another). And you know what? They make money hand over fist.

    There are a lot of companies like this, that value quality over short term profits, and it's these companies that I think the government could learn from. Whether people like it or not, the government is itself a form of business. It may not be in business to make money, but its actions do have an effect on the economy, and it has to be able to fund its initiatives somehow. I don't think it's too much to ask that they do more to keep the budget balanced and not go into debt up to their eyeballs (it may be inevitable to have to borrow some sometimes, but you shouldn't be borrowing more than you're bringing in to begin with).

    This saved me from typing a whole lot - thank you! :flowerforyou:

    I seem to be lacking clarity in my posts at the moment, for which my apologies. When I spoke of private companies, I had in mind the true blue-chip companies of the world, small or large, that behave ethically and responsibly, whilst also pursuing results, innovation and excellence, not the 'race-to-the-bottom' conglomerates who prioritise profit above quality. These companies tend not to waste money, and may be very frugal in some areas, but invest in their products, services and people, and often, as Dragonwolf said, make substantial profits as well as enjoying huge market shares and respect. At the same time, being private rather than public, they are not weighed down by the need to retain 'dead wood' in their employ. They support and empower their staff, but they are able to remove those who cannot or will not adapt, or who are surplus to requirements, unlike the public sector, which has, at least here, far too many inadequate and incompetent employees in life-long jobs. While I agree that a government should provide a safety net, I'm quite convinced that providing civil service jobs for life to the least competent in society is neither the appropriate way to do so, nor a productive measure, given the mess that would leave the country in!

    When I wrote of 'return on investment', I didn't particularly mean a measurable financial profit per se. What I meant was government departments that are completely fit for purpose, efficient, and able to invest in areas that need attention within their remit, creating a genuine return for taxpayers - a high-quality service that works. 'Though, the idea of a government department posting a financial surplus that could then be re-invested in further improvements and developments has a certain charm...