Forcasting health metrics
Would anyone like to share MyFitnessPal, Garmin Connect and/or OneTouch logs to help each other rigorously resolve forecasts and hopefully achieve better results? The fundamental hypothesis is, if you can predict an outcome of a behavior with any certainty, you can change it to improve the outcome.
The idea is to use Phil Tetlock's Superforecasting method to track forecasts and their uncertainty (which can be updated as often as you like) to compute the time weighted prediction error Score, which we can compete against one another on.
It's not so much about how healthier, stronger or happier you want to be, but how well you can achieve the predicted outcome. Just post your forecast including,
1) today's date and actual numeric metric,
2) End point date, forecast and 33% cut-offs (low, medium, high)
Weight: Today 12/28/2024 166.6 lb. On 1/31/2025 150 lb +/- 10 lb
Body Fat %: Today 12/28/2024 22.6%. On 1/31/2025 21.5% +/- 1.5.
The measure can be anything you want for example (weight, A1C, or something else)
For more info check out
https://goodjudgment.com/about/the-science-of-superforecasting/
Here is my personal privacy statement. I am not a Federal agency nor do I have any commercial interest in your data. I am solely interested in ascertaining the validity of the fitness models we are currently, or have been, using for your forecast with the sole intention of improving our models and forecasts.
"I only have access to/collect Personal Data that you voluntarily give me via the myfitnesspal.com community, email or other direct contact from you. I will not sell or rent this Personal Data to anyone. I will use your Personal Data to respond to you, regarding the reason you contacted me."
The idea is to use Phil Tetlock's Superforecasting method to track forecasts and their uncertainty (which can be updated as often as you like) to compute the time weighted prediction error Score, which we can compete against one another on.
It's not so much about how healthier, stronger or happier you want to be, but how well you can achieve the predicted outcome. Just post your forecast including,
1) today's date and actual numeric metric,
2) End point date, forecast and 33% cut-offs (low, medium, high)
Weight: Today 12/28/2024 166.6 lb. On 1/31/2025 150 lb +/- 10 lb
Body Fat %: Today 12/28/2024 22.6%. On 1/31/2025 21.5% +/- 1.5.
The measure can be anything you want for example (weight, A1C, or something else)
For more info check out
https://goodjudgment.com/about/the-science-of-superforecasting/
Here is my personal privacy statement. I am not a Federal agency nor do I have any commercial interest in your data. I am solely interested in ascertaining the validity of the fitness models we are currently, or have been, using for your forecast with the sole intention of improving our models and forecasts.
"I only have access to/collect Personal Data that you voluntarily give me via the myfitnesspal.com community, email or other direct contact from you. I will not sell or rent this Personal Data to anyone. I will use your Personal Data to respond to you, regarding the reason you contacted me."