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Also keep in mind that nearly every fitness tracker over estimates the amount of calories burned. A big mistake of new runners is thinking, "I ran 3 miles, I can eat a couple of donuts." A 5-mile run is about 1 slice of sausage pizza.
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I talked to a friend in sports medicine. The answer was pretty simple. I'm older, and my skin is losing elasticity. I'm not looking at a fat belly, but loose skin that will need longer to tighten up, if it ever does.