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Calorie estimates are often much much higher than your actual caloric output. For example, if I track my calories burned with my Garmin watch while running it will give me one number versus putting in time and pace into MFP which will give me another. You never burn as many calories as you think you do. I usually slash off…
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The most important factor in sustained weight loss is diet. You can exercise daily - and you'll see a lot of benefits from doing so - but if you're not eating at a caloric deficit, you're not going to lose weight in the long run.