Determining target HM race pace
SteveTries
Posts: 723 Member
Although I've been running continually (albeit with peaks and troughs) since 2011, I haven't run a race since an October 2014 Marathon. The last half marathon race being March 2013
In an effort to inject more consistency into my running, I've signed up for a September marathon and thought that putting 3 half's in the calendar between now and then would help with that consistency. I run at a modest pace e.g. 4hr 15 mara PB and 1hr 49 HM PB.
The first half comes up next Sunday (due to poor planning by my parents, that's also the day I turn 44). When I signed up, I didn't have a goal for the HM other than to be back in sufficient shape to complete without stopping, and as a bonus, be inside of 2 hours. Having done 3 20km+ runs in the past month inside of that pace, I'm perfectly comfortable that I can, so I'd like to now complete the distance in the best time that I am capable of.
Whilst my running has been quite consistent, I haven't followed a plan since I wasn't at all focussed on this event. Now that it's just around the corner, I realise I want to complete it to the best of my ability, but since I've not been doing any runs specifically to test out a target race pace......I don't know what I am capable of.
I'm interested in any ideas regarding how I can establish a realistic benchmark. One idea I had was go and do 10k tomorrow running hard Since I will be not be rested for that run, and in a calorie deficit, that might translate into a pace I could hold for a HM distance in a rested, well fed state......?
Any input welcomed. Thank you
In an effort to inject more consistency into my running, I've signed up for a September marathon and thought that putting 3 half's in the calendar between now and then would help with that consistency. I run at a modest pace e.g. 4hr 15 mara PB and 1hr 49 HM PB.
The first half comes up next Sunday (due to poor planning by my parents, that's also the day I turn 44). When I signed up, I didn't have a goal for the HM other than to be back in sufficient shape to complete without stopping, and as a bonus, be inside of 2 hours. Having done 3 20km+ runs in the past month inside of that pace, I'm perfectly comfortable that I can, so I'd like to now complete the distance in the best time that I am capable of.
Whilst my running has been quite consistent, I haven't followed a plan since I wasn't at all focussed on this event. Now that it's just around the corner, I realise I want to complete it to the best of my ability, but since I've not been doing any runs specifically to test out a target race pace......I don't know what I am capable of.
I'm interested in any ideas regarding how I can establish a realistic benchmark. One idea I had was go and do 10k tomorrow running hard Since I will be not be rested for that run, and in a calorie deficit, that might translate into a pace I could hold for a HM distance in a rested, well fed state......?
Any input welcomed. Thank you
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Replies
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Why not just run the half a pace that is comfortably hard and let the results tell you what you want to know?3
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Although I've been running continually (albeit with peaks and troughs) since 2011, I haven't run a race since an October 2014 Marathon. The last half marathon race being March 2013
In an effort to inject more consistency into my running, I've signed up for a September marathon and thought that putting 3 half's in the calendar between now and then would help with that consistency. I run at a modest pace e.g. 4hr 15 mara PB and 1hr 49 HM PB.
The first half comes up next Sunday (due to poor planning by my parents, that's also the day I turn 44). When I signed up, I didn't have a goal for the HM other than to be back in sufficient shape to complete without stopping, and as a bonus, be inside of 2 hours. Having done 3 20km+ runs in the past month inside of that pace, I'm perfectly comfortable that I can, so I'd like to now complete the distance in the best time that I am capable of.
Whilst my running has been quite consistent, I haven't followed a plan since I wasn't at all focussed on this event. Now that it's just around the corner, I realise I want to complete it to the best of my ability, but since I've not been doing any runs specifically to test out a target race pace......I don't know what I am capable of.
I'm interested in any ideas regarding how I can establish a realistic benchmark. One idea I had was go and do 10k tomorrow running hard Since I will be not be rested for that run, and in a calorie deficit, that might translate into a pace I could hold for a HM distance in a rested, well fed state......?
Any input welcomed. Thank you
its interesting that you think that your 10K pace in those conditions would be the same as your HM race pace. what makes you think there will be such a large difference?0 -
TavistockToad wrote: »its interesting that you think that your 10K pace in those conditions would be the same as your HM race pace. what makes you think there will be such a large difference?
That's an astute question you ask!!
The idea came from looking at my garmin connect data around the time of my 2013 HM and noticing that I'd labelled some runs in the 8-10km range as "pace" and had run these about the same as the HM. Avg HR per km for those runs looks to be about 10bpm down on the first 10k of the HM, however they were flat and the HM was gaining elevation for the first 11km
So to answer your question, I'm selectively taking bits of data and forming an imperfect hypothesis
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Why not just run the half a pace that is comfortably hard and let the results tell you what you want to know?
Fear of running out of steam mid way or worse, finishing with energy left in the tank
Running by feel is something I just started working on in recent weeks. I have always been a slave to data, forever glancing at the watch to check my heart rate or pace. I'm trying to wean myself off that dependence.
Most likely what you suggest will be what I end up doing. It's the most practical approach.0 -
Why not just run the half a pace that is comfortably hard and let the results tell you what you want to know?
Fear of running out of steam mid way or worse, finishing with energy left in the tank
Running by feel is something I just started working on in recent weeks. I have always been a slave to data, forever glancing at the watch to check my heart rate or pace. I'm trying to wean myself off that dependence.
Most likely what you suggest will be what I end up doing. It's the most practical approach.
When I ran my first, and so far only, half, I started out at a pace I thought was "conversational" and would be able to maintain throughout the race. As I checked my watch, I found that I was at a pace that I was not able to maintain during any training runs. I consciously tried to slow down but was unable to. At around mile five, I come up on, or was come up on, another runner. She asked how things were going and I conveyed my fears that my pace was too fast, that I was not able to maintain this pace during any training runs and feared that I would crash and burn. At which point she said, "you realize we are talking with each other?" I was surprised to find, at the end of the race (run) that I had maintained that pace, within 10 seconds, or so (plus/minus), per half mile, throughout. Start at a reasonable comfortable hard pace and see what happens. Take your data from that first race and determine your paces based on your performance. But, above all, enjoy the run.3 -
Since you have no recent races to use to get a good projection, I would just go by feel. Go for moderately hard. If you are puffing and panting, slow down. If it feels like you could sing out loud, speed up. I usually look for someone nearby running at a pace I think I can sustain. If it feels too easy, I'll pass them and focus on someone else. If it feels too hard, I'll slow down and just keep them in sight, if I can. I find my body knows pretty well what pace it can hold on to (except in marathons), especially when I'm well trained. Since you've already done several 12 mile runs, you probably have the stamina to maintain pace for most if not all of the race.
I don't think I would rely on a 10k time trial to determine pace. There is almost a 30 second per mile difference between my 10k pace and my HM pace. (8:16 vs. 8:44). On 5-6 mile tempo runs I can run very close to my 10k pace, but I am not capable of doing that for 13.1 -
spiriteagle99 wrote: »Since you have no recent races to use to get a good projection, I would just go by feel. Go for moderately hard. If you are puffing and panting, slow down. If it feels like you could sing out loud, speed up. I usually look for someone nearby running at a pace I think I can sustain. If it feels too easy, I'll pass them and focus on someone else. If it feels too hard, I'll slow down and just keep them in sight, if I can. I find my body knows pretty well what pace it can hold on to (except in marathons), especially when I'm well trained. Since you've already done several 12 mile runs, you probably have the stamina to maintain pace for most if not all of the race.
I don't think I would rely on a 10k time trial to determine pace. There is almost a 30 second per mile difference between my 10k pace and my HM pace. (8:16 vs. 8:44). On 5-6 mile tempo runs I can run very close to my 10k pace, but I am not capable of doing that for 13.
I agree with this. For most of my half marathons, for the first three miles I feel like maybe I am pushing it a little too hard, but I keep going planning to slow down later when I need to. But by miles 3-4, I feel like I have found a groove and I can continue on at that pace. Around miles 10-11 is where I really start to feel like I am running out of steam and I will push as hard as I can, but slow down if I need to. Usually I end up finishing with a fairly consistent pace (all of my mile splits with 5-10 seconds of each other) and feeling like I had nothing left in the tank. The nice thing about a half marathon is that even if you go out too fast, you can still slow down and still finish close to your goal. It doesn't usually bite you in the butt like it does in a marathon to where you have to stop and walk.
Good luck and let us know how it goes!2 -
thank you all for the input - much appreciated0
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Could you run 10k as fast as you can, then plug it into one of those online pace calculators?
Here's one from Runner's World, but there are others out there as well: https://www.runnersworld.com/tools/race-time-predictor1 -
A bit of jargon for you - many coaches use the term "comfortably hard," which seems rather imprecise to a new runner. What they really mean is running at lactate threshold. That turns out to be a natural pace for most runners to fall into.
The problem with trying to run a half marathon at lactic threshold pace is, by definition that is a pace you can sustain for about an hour. Then the lactic acid build up catches up to you and your are compelled to slow down. So your half marathon pace needs to be a little slower than your lactic threshold pace. Practical advice: Find the pace that is comfortably hard, then slow down a little. Maybe you only slow down by 10 to 15 seconds per mile; but that little bit is important.
So what happens if you set out to just run the half comfortably hard? Assuming that makes you fall into an approximation of LT pace, after about an hour you feel very tired, slow down, and start to doubt your conditioning. Depending on how far that hour takes you, maybe you can still finish the race without walking breaks; but that last part of the race isn't fun. Been there, done that.
It took me about 10 half marathons to learn to manage the distance well. For me, the trick is to slow down after the first 2 miles. Miles 3 to 5 are typically the slowest miles I run in a well managed half, absent something about the course terrain that dictates different treatment. Then I take a gel at mile 5, settle into a slightly faster pace through mile 10 or 11, and make a decision about how much energy I have left to throw into the last 2 miles. On a flat course in good weather, I can run the last 2 miles at lactic threshold pace and arrive in good shape; but the first 11 are slower than that.
Now, I just wish I were that good at managing marathons!3 -
thank you both!
As it transpires, I've been unwell for a week and the race is in two day, so all ambitions have been deferred to just getting around. You have to laugh sometimes at how your plans play out. 1 -
@sjb74uk you're doing the Warwick Half aren't you? I used to live round there. I've run on most of those roads and the canal towpath, and the footpaths and bridleways. Running past the rifle range was always noisy. Happy memories. Hope you get through the race and you are still smiling at the end.0
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BruinsGal_91 wrote: »@sjb74uk you're doing the Warwick Half aren't you? I used to live round there. I've run on most of those roads and the canal towpath, and the footpaths and bridleways. Running past the rifle range was always noisy. Happy memories. Hope you get through the race and you are still smiling at the end.
That's right! It's a good route - very scenic. No rifles yesterday - though when I first ran it they started at the castle, which was great. These days it's the racecourse, which is fine but not the same. 0 -
I thought I should circle back since so many people gave up their time to help me out with this.
Fair to say things did not go according to plan (when do they??). I used the excellent Cool Runnings Race Pace Calculator to determine a 5:27 per km pace would see me finish at 1hr 55. 5 mins behind my PB, set 5 years ago when I last ran a half and 5 minutes quicker than the long run pace I'd been doing recently. I could then work towards a summer PB via a consistent training regime.
To build in a buffer for the hills (it's a non-stop undulating course, though only 200m total climb), I figured 5:25 per km and lined up between the 1hr 45 and 2hr pacers.
First km includes a short steep hill which I summit feeling decidedly uncomfortable and the 5:22km pace feels unsustainable and I get that sinking feeling
But what goes up must come down and I start to feel better, then km 3 begins, heralding 12 more kms where only 1 is not a climb.
As I've said, I'm overly dependent upon my watch, but did my best to ignore the persistent 83-89% of maxHR, and "run by feel" that several of you had suggested. It was feeling tough, but I'd settled into the pace and at the end of 14kms I'm averaging 5:15per. I am struggling at this point, and it takes about half a dozen attempts to do the mental math and determine that if I can hold that pace, I'll finish in 1:52:30. Which sounds great to me, though I keep worrying I went out too quick for my current condition and will fade. Those smarter than me will realise that my math was out. I blame fatigue for my poor mental arithmetic, rather than turning yet another year older that day....
I look at the watch far too many times during the remainder of the course and keep seeing the lap pace dip, so regularly pump arms to hold the 5:15.
Gloriously, the final 2.5 kms are ever so slightly downhill (about 35m in total). I know my kids will be at the end so I quit looking at the watch and try to finish looking a bit quicker and bit smilier than the previous 19.
It's a joy to see the finish line and emotional to see the family cheering me on. I should say at this point that the event was run by the British Heart Foundation, and reading the dedications to lost loved ones, pinned on the back of people's t-shirts along the course had been quite touching.
I put on a my best "I feel fine" smile for the camera (at least I think so, we'll see when they get published) and stopped my watch as I finished.
I was absolutely in disbelief as I saw 1:49:08 - a PB by 52 seconds. My poor math earlier hadn't even allowed me to think I was anything close to that. My final two kms were 4:44 and 4:33 and that just tipped me into PB territory.
The winners were in the 1hr 15m range (men) and 1hr 17m range - which I find just amazing. But I was delighted at my time. Not for a moment during the event or in the weeks leading up to it did I think I was in that kind of condition.
I learnt a lot yesterday. I now have the confidence to target 3hrs 59 (and 59 secs) for the September marathon I am signed up for. My previous marathon time being 4hr 15m
Thanks again for the support!5 -
Nice one! And good luck with the marathon.1
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@sjb74uk-That's fantastic! You can get that sub 4hr marathon no doubt!0
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lporter229 wrote: »@sjb74uk-That's fantastic! You can get that sub 4hr marathon no doubt!
Maybe if I lose 10kgs
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Congratulations! With good training, you should be able to manage a sub 4 marathon.0
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