half marathon PR 2:00:36 Marathon in under 4 hours?
Replies
-
Please understand that my comments are not meant to discourage you. They are trying to help you look at this task from a realistic perspective and are based on, not only my experiences, but hundreds of others that I have heard or read about over the years.
There are physiological adaptations that have to take place before the human body is capable of sustaining that effort for that long without going into complete glycogen depletion. Those adaptations don't take place over a period of months. They take place over a period of years. Lot's of consistent mileage (and that doesn't mean 25 miles a week, that means 40+ miles a week) over years.
My goal is to help you to set a reasonable goal that will allow you to complete the marathon with the least amount of pain so that you look back on the experience and cherish it and want to do another one instead of viewing it as being nearly more miserable than childbirth and have no desire to run another step in your life.0 -
It's not impossible, just highly unlikely. You've heard both sides here, so you know it is possible. But even in this small sample of runners, you could see the odds are stacked. (Only one person out of how many respondents)
Congrats on quitting smoking and losing that weight! That is an awesome feat in itself. I'm sure that the good willed advice you asked for here is only going to make you more determined to go sub 4 just to prove it can be done. Will and determination can go a long way.
I wish I had the same info and resources and knew then what I know now about this.
Try a negative split first. Bank energy, not time. The real race starts at mile 20.0 -
A well run marathons (even splits) is a TRICKY beast. Energy management is critical (hence the frequent warnings of don't go out too fast) and it is generally learned through experience.
The tough part is you line up on race day feeling good (well training & well rested) so it is really easy to get going a little too fast. So let's say you are running 8:45 instead of 9:15. At mile 20+ the error become geometric, you don't slow down that original 30 seconds per mile, you might slow down 2 minutes per mile.
Running close to your half PR for twice the distance is a tall order. See how the rest of your training goes and then approach with caution on race day.
I can tell from experience how sucky it is to go out with a faster pace group (say 4:00) and then get passed by the next group or two behind them (4:15 & 4:30). Even worse you realize you probably would have been fine if you just stuck with 4:15.
Anyway, sorry to be a downer. This is my experience after 26 marathons (including 9 or 10 crash & burns while chasing arbitrary time goals and "just trying to hang on"). I can also tell you how awesome it was to finally become the guy who was passing all the other runners over the last few miles as they were crashing and burning. All I had to do was learn how to manage my energy and assess my proper race pace based on my training.
Good luck and have fun whatever pace you decide to run!0 -
It's not impossible, just highly unlikely. You've heard both sides here, so you know it is possible. But even in this small sample of runners, you could see the odds are stacked. (Only one person out of how many respondents)
And he admittedly did the 2:02 HM as a training run and held back. We don't even know what his real HM PR might be.0 -
My half marathon time is 2:00, and my marathon would reasonably have been 4:20, I was totally with pace group, no problems until I broke my ankle at mile 17, and finished in 4:40 instead. I wouldn't plan any faster than 4:20. Reasonably, taking 13 minutes off a half marathon time is running 1:00 MPM faster, in the world of numbers, that's actually quite significantly faster. I'm happy to peel a minute or two off one half to another. But I would say with a first marathon, planning to do it quite a bit faster than calculators have you running it as it a message of disappointment.0
-
It's not impossible, just highly unlikely. You've heard both sides here, so you know it is possible. But even in this small sample of runners, you could see the odds are stacked. (Only one person out of how many respondents)
And he admittedly did the 2:02 HM as a training run and held back. We don't even know what his real HM PR might be.
Just to clarify a couple things:
1) I'm a she, not a he! (yes, masculine-sounding username... sorry for the confusion!) :laugh:
2) That's a true statement that I have never truly "raced" a half. I wouldn't say it was just any ol' training run, since the race environment and general competitiveness caused me to push it more than I would've were I just out running a 13-mile training run on my own, but I definitely don't feel like I "raced" the whole half. (Frankly, I feel the same way about my full, though that was more of a pacing chess game and fear of running more than 20 miles for the first time.) If you feel your half marathon "PR" is similarly soft, that'd be an encouraging sign.
If it helps, and I'm not sure it will, my 13 mile splits were:
- for my full: 1:56:30;
- for my 20 mile training run ~1 month prior to the full: 1:58:30
- for a metric marathon I ran ~2 months prior to the full (and ~1 month after the half): 1:57:460 -
My bad!
Just to clarify a couple things:
1) I'm a she, not a he! (yes, masculine-sounding username... sorry for the confusion!) :laugh:- for my 20 mile training run ~1 month prior to the full: 1:58:30
Are you sure? That's a 5:56 pace. <---Disregard!0 -
My bad!
Just to clarify a couple things:
1) I'm a she, not a he! (yes, masculine-sounding username... sorry for the confusion!) :laugh:- for my 20 mile training run ~1 month prior to the full: 1:58:30
Are you sure? That's a 5:56 pace.
I'm pretty sure she meant that was her time at 13 miles. Not for the whole thing.0 -
My bad!
Just to clarify a couple things:
1) I'm a she, not a he! (yes, masculine-sounding username... sorry for the confusion!) :laugh:- for my 20 mile training run ~1 month prior to the full: 1:58:30
Are you sure? That's a 5:56 pace.
I'm pretty sure she meant that was her time at 13 miles. Not for the whole thing.
oh, oh. Yes. I see.0 -
It's not impossible, just highly unlikely. You've heard both sides here, so you know it is possible. But even in this small sample of runners, you could see the odds are stacked. (Only one person out of how many respondents)
And he admittedly did the 2:02 HM as a training run and held back. We don't even know what his real HM PR might be.
Just to clarify a couple things:
1) I'm a she, not a he! (yes, masculine-sounding username... sorry for the confusion!) :laugh:
2) That's a true statement that I have never truly "raced" a half. I wouldn't say it was just any ol' training run, since the race environment and general competitiveness caused me to push it more than I would've were I just out running a 13-mile training run on my own, but I definitely don't feel like I "raced" the whole half. (Frankly, I feel the same way about my full, though that was more of a pacing chess game and fear of running more than 20 miles for the first time.) If you feel your half marathon "PR" is similarly soft, that'd be an encouraging sign.
If it helps, and I'm not sure it will, my 13 mile splits were:
- for my full: 1:56:30;
- for my 20 mile training run ~1 month prior to the full: 1:58:30
- for a metric marathon I ran ~2 months prior to the full (and ~1 month after the half): 1:57:46
Just imagine what your half time would be now if you truly raced it!0 -
I know there are studies done on how much slower one's pace becomes over the last half for each second you went out too fast in the first half, but you can look for yourself in race results. You'll see much slower second half split times are than the first half split times. Example, I looked at race results from my PR marathon just to see how people pulled off a sub 4. It was interesting to see how many more people reeled in a sub 2 time for the 13.1 miles but ended up finishing the last half in 2+ hours. That's a HUGE difference in pace.
It does feel good to pass people up in the end, especially when you're passing the same guys that were speeding up and weaving in and out during the first couple of miles of the race. Knowing your fitness and keeping a realistic pace is key.A well run marathons (even splits) is a TRICKY beast. Energy management is critical (hence the frequent warnings of don't go out too fast) and it is generally learned through experience.
The tough part is you line up on race day feeling good (well training & well rested) so it is really easy to get going a little too fast. So let's say you are running 8:45 instead of 9:15. At mile 20+ the error become geometric, you don't slow down that original 30 seconds per mile, you might slow down 2 minutes per mile.
Running close to your half PR for twice the distance is a tall order. See how the rest of your training goes and then approach with caution on race day.
I can tell from experience how sucky it is to go out with a faster pace group (say 4:00) and then get passed by the next group or two behind them (4:15 & 4:30). Even worse you realize you probably would have been fine if you just stuck with 4:15.
Anyway, sorry to be a downer. This is my experience after 26 marathons (including 9 or 10 crash & burns while chasing arbitrary time goals and "just trying to hang on"). I can also tell you how awesome it was to finally become the guy who was passing all the other runners over the last few miles as they were crashing and burning. All I had to do was learn how to manage my energy and assess my proper race pace based on my training.
Good luck and have fun whatever pace you decide to run!0 -
I would really pay attention to what carson & arc are saying. 4 additional months of training is not going to drop your time enough to realistically shoot for under 4 hours.
My limited marathoning experience
My 1st marathon my races predicted a 3:30 to 3:39 marathon, depending on which I used. I went out for a 3:45 & hit the wall, was lucky to even finish, and ran a 4:01
My 2nd marathon my half predicted a 3:28. Again I went out at a 3:45 pace, but it was very unseasonably warm and by mile 4 I realized there was no point in pushing things, so I back off with the heat slowing me a little over the last couple miles, but still finishing in 3:56. Had it been cooler, I would have easily went under 3:50 and may have neared 3:45. But that would have still been 17 minutes over my McMillan predicted time.0 -
Well my half was 2 months ago, so I will have 4 months more of training for my full. I am also running two halves this month. One of those halves will be following a 20 mile Saturday run and Sunday 10K race. So I figure I can pull of a PR of 1:55 or better at that half with no taper, then I have a better shot.
I don't think it's impossible to do. Just don't set yourself up for mental failure if you can't pull it off in a 4:00:00 time or better. Perhaps set that as your top goal and have a back up plan in case that last 10k becomes it's own 26.2 miles. Of course some of this will depend on the temps and wind that day so there's that to remember as well. Things happen.
My last HM was 1:58. It was raining, windy, and I had been very sick the week before and dropped about 4 pounds in weight from undereating. This was pretty slow for me but given the circumstances of what all was happening it wasn't an optimal race day at all. Just keep things like this in mind. Keep your goal. I like that as a goal. Just don't be heartbroken if it doesn't work out.0 -
Sorry if my 13 mile splits were confusing!!! (Already apologized for the boy name...)
I'm so surprised to see that I was the only respondent who had done this (though, again, not truly racing the half must be my unique element! What a slacker I am...). :laugh:
Going into my full, I told myself that my goal was to finish with a smile on my face, happy that I did it. My stretch goal was sub-4, based on my training (and the advice of the exercise physiologist I worked with throughout my training). Based on that, my race plan was to hold 9 minute miles for the first half, then go by feel after that. I managed to average 8:56 min/mi (and I suck at pacing!) for the first 13 and then felt good enough to hold on. Assuming your training paces by race day supports it (and, per much of the advice here, that's a really important thing to determine!), you may try a strategy like that... again, just a thought, since the other folks responding here have waaaaaaaayyyyy more knowledge on this than I do - I just managed to fluke my way through the one and only marathon I've ever run!
Best of luck to you!
[ETA] This whole thread is making me even more nervous than I already was for my December full (where my goal is to PR and my stretch goal is to BQ (3:45))!!!!0 -
Sorry if my 13 mile splits were confusing!!! (Already apologized for the boy name...)
I'm so surprised to see that I was the only respondent who had done this (though, again, not truly racing the half must be my unique element! What a slacker I am...). :laugh:
Going into my full, I told myself that my goal was to finish with a smile on my face, happy that I did it. My stretch goal was sub-4, based on my training (and the advice of the exercise physiologist I worked with throughout my training). Based on that, my race plan was to hold 9 minute miles for the first half, then go by feel after that. I managed to average 8:56 min/mi (and I suck at pacing!) for the first 13 and then felt good enough to hold on. Assuming your training paces by race day supports it (and, per much of the advice here, that's a really important thing to determine!), you may try a strategy like that... again, just a thought, since the other folks responding here have waaaaaaaayyyyy more knowledge on this than I do - I just managed to fluke my way through the one and only marathon I've ever run!
Best of luck to you!
[ETA] This whole thread is making me even more nervous than I already was for my December full (where my goal is to PR and my stretch goal is to BQ (3:45))!!!!
What did your training look like prior to that marathon? What was your weekly mileage?0 -
Well my half was 2 months ago, so I will have 4 months more of training for my full. I am also running two halves this month. One of those halves will be following a 20 mile Saturday run and Sunday 10K race. So I figure I can pull of a PR of 1:55 or better at that half with no taper, then I have a better shot.
I don't think it's impossible to do. Just don't set yourself up for mental failure if you can't pull it off in a 4:00:00 time or better. Perhaps set that as your top goal and have a back up plan in case that last 10k becomes it's own 26.2 miles. Of course some of this will depend on the temps and wind that day so there's that to remember as well. Things happen.
My last HM was 1:58. It was raining, windy, and I had been very sick the week before and dropped about 4 pounds in weight from undereating. This was pretty slow for me but given the circumstances of what all was happening it wasn't an optimal race day at all. Just keep things like this in mind. Keep your goal. I like that as a goal. Just don't be heartbroken if it doesn't work out.
my A goal is sub 4, but I'll be eccastic with 4:30 or better. My last two PR'd halves, the first in May (2:03) I had a cough for 2 weeks leading up to race, actually had a coughing attack in the line up, luckily a lady near me had a mint to help. The next one was 6 weeks later when I got the 2:00 and it was extremly humid (not hot but humid) and I don't generally run well in humidity (would think i woudl be use to it by now living in Nebraska) So I guess that is why I have high hopes for this race, it will be in late October and weather should be cool with no humidity. Thanks for the support!0 -
Sorry if my 13 mile splits were confusing!!! (Already apologized for the boy name...)
I'm so surprised to see that I was the only respondent who had done this (though, again, not truly racing the half must be my unique element! What a slacker I am...). :laugh:
Going into my full, I told myself that my goal was to finish with a smile on my face, happy that I did it. My stretch goal was sub-4, based on my training (and the advice of the exercise physiologist I worked with throughout my training). Based on that, my race plan was to hold 9 minute miles for the first half, then go by feel after that. I managed to average 8:56 min/mi (and I suck at pacing!) for the first 13 and then felt good enough to hold on. Assuming your training paces by race day supports it (and, per much of the advice here, that's a really important thing to determine!), you may try a strategy like that... again, just a thought, since the other folks responding here have waaaaaaaayyyyy more knowledge on this than I do - I just managed to fluke my way through the one and only marathon I've ever run!
Best of luck to you!
[ETA] This whole thread is making me even more nervous than I already was for my December full (where my goal is to PR and my stretch goal is to BQ (3:45))!!!!
What did your training look like prior to that marathon? What was your weekly mileage?
My full plan ran from early August through race day (Jan 8) - basically 5 months total. My weekly routine was generally:
Mon: off
Tues: intervals
Wed: easy/recovery
Thu: tempo
Fri: short run with 4x 30-sec "openers" (sprints)
Sat: long
Sun: recovery
I was starting from a pretty minimal base distance-wise, so the long runs (and, hence, the weekly mileage) definitely built up gradually over the 5 months. At the very beginning, weekly mileage was just >20 mi; in the middle (say, mid-October), weekly mileage was just under 30 mi; when the long runs were up in the 18-20 mi range (I only did one 18-miler and one 20-miler), the weekly mileage was at or just under 40 mi. And after the 20-miler, which was 3 weeks prior to the race, I gradually tapered down.
Let me know if you have any other questions or if I didn't give you the info you were looking for (though I'm guessing I probably gave more than you wanted!!!); I will completely confess to pretty much blindly following the plan my exercise physiologist worked out for me (and tweaked along the way), which is why I keep pointing out that I'm no expert!0 -
My full plan ran from early August through race day (Jan 8) - basically 5 months total. My weekly routine was generally:
Mon: off
Tues: intervals
Wed: easy/recovery
Thu: tempo
Fri: short run with 4x 30-sec "openers" (sprints)
Sat: long
Sun: recovery
I was starting from a pretty minimal base distance-wise, so the long runs (and, hence, the weekly mileage) definitely built up gradually over the 5 months. At the very beginning, weekly mileage was just >20 mi; in the middle (say, mid-October), weekly mileage was just under 30 mi; when the long runs were up in the 18-20 mi range (I only did one 18-miler and one 20-miler), the weekly mileage was at or just under 40 mi. And after the 20-miler, which was 3 weeks prior to the race, I gradually tapered down.
Let me know if you have any other questions or if I didn't give you the info you were looking for (though I'm guessing I probably gave more than you wanted!!!); I will completely confess to pretty much blindly following the plan my exercise physiologist worked out for me (and tweaked along the way), which is why I keep pointing out that I'm no expert!
You were able to achieve a very good result based on your age, gender and the amount of mileage that you put in. Were you doing any other type of conditioning prior to stating the running program? It seems to me that you had to have some aerobic base of some kind before starting the training plan. Either that, or you have a good deal of natural talent as your experience is very atypical.0 -
You were able to achieve a very good result based on your age, gender and the amount of mileage that you put in. Were you doing any other type of conditioning prior to stating the running program? It seems to me that you had to have some aerobic base of some kind before starting the training plan. Either that, or you have a good deal of natural talent as your experience is very atypical.
I honestly didn't know my performance/progress was anything remarkable; that's what happens when you only have a data sample of 1, I suppose!
When I was much, much younger (read: my teens), I was an elite athlete (swimmer competing at the National and very occasionally international level), so I suppose I have some general level of athleticism. Since I retired from swimming, running was always my off and on go-to exercise, though I never raced and certainly never considered myself particularly good/fast. However, prior to starting this marathon training program, I was coming off a pretty down time in my life (won't get into all that!) where I had couch-surfed a whooooollleee lot; I got back to a regular running routine at the end of May; and, as stated previously, started the official marathon training in early August.
So, the bad news is that I have no real explanation for my apparently atypical performance. The good news is that I'm back in training for full marathon #2 in December and my weekly mileage is already up over 30 mi (which is nothing compared to many of you, I know, but is more than I was running at this point in my last training plan), so hopefully logging the increased miles will help come race day!0 -
I honestly didn't know my performance/progress was anything remarkable; that's what happens when you only have a data sample of 1, I suppose!
When I was much, much younger (read: my teens), I was an elite athlete (swimmer competing at the National and very occasionally international level), so I suppose I have some general level of athleticism. Since I retired from swimming, running was always my off and on go-to exercise, though I never raced and certainly never considered myself particularly good/fast. However, prior to starting this marathon training program, I was coming off a pretty down time in my life (won't get into all that!) where I had couch-surfed a whooooollleee lot; I got back to a regular running routine at the end of May; and, as stated previously, started the official marathon training in early August.
So, the bad news is that I have no real explanation for my apparently atypical performance. The good news is that I'm back in training for full marathon #2 in December and my weekly mileage is already up over 30 mi (which is nothing compared to many of you, I know, but is more than I was running at this point in my last training plan), so hopefully logging the increased miles will help come race day!
The bold section above explains it. Some of the physical adaptations that take place during training remain for a very long time, like the production of mitochondria. So, even though you had some down time, you still had a very good physical plant with which to work.0 -
The bold section above explains it. Some of the physical adaptations that take place during training remain for a very long time, like the production of mitochondria. So, even though you had some down time, you still had a very good physical plant with which to work.
Wow - wouldn't have thought that would be true 20 years later (though I do know that training 7+ hours every day for many years mentally prepared me for the marathon training, for sure; I really had zero doubt that I'd be able to do it and just did what my ex. phys. told me, just like I had to with my coaches back in the day). It's good to know all those social events I missed in high school 'cause I was training are still payin' off! :laugh:0 -
OP I'm in your boat. My HM PR is 1:45, and I'm planning on aiming for a 4:30 for my first full, which is in 1.5 weeks. To me, it seems like excessive time padding, but I haven't run anything beyond 20mi and I'm afraid of burning out. I'll come back here with the results
As promised:
I finished in 4:27:29. I can say with the utmost degree of confidence that a half mile PR pace would have gotten me a 5. My race was also in 85 degree heat for the last 2 hours. One way to solve that is to just run quicker lol.0
