50k to predict my full marathon time/fitness?

essjay76

In short, I'm running a 50k (all road race, Cowtown Marathon in Fort Worth, Texas) on Feb 23. I'm trying to get some 22+ mile training runs in before Cowtown. I am not new to the distance, but it will be my first road ultra. (Did a trail one last year). I want to go for a time for Cowtown. Thing is, I also have a full marathon come April 5. I want to PR in that marathon. I tried to devise a schedule that would allow me to run a half marathon to gauge my fitness for the full, but it just doesn't seem feasible with both races. So I was thinking of using my 50k to predict my time.

Now the long of it. I have been training for a full marathon since August of last year. I was originally supposed to do Dallas Marathon but it was canceled due to inclement weather. So instead of finding another full to do, I decided to build off the training and use it for the 50k. I know "a lot" is relative, but I tend to run a lot more slower miles (In 2013 I ran 2021 miles, with a mean weakly mileage of 40-50 miles, and a high of about 60+).

I have done about 9 "long runs" since August (anything longer than 18 miles), alternated with 13-16 mile long runs. Recovery is a lot faster for me now, so I'm wondering how I should handle the full after the ultra. I was planning on treating the Ultra as an extended long run before my full, which would normally be run at my long run pace. (e.g. 20+ miles would be run at a 10:00 pace). If I do this, my 50k time would be about a 5:10.

I don't know if running it at my long run pace would equate to a 50k race pace (again, this will be my first time doing a road 50k. A trail one is a different beast).

I just don't know how I should gauge my fitness level for the full marathon in April.


Thoughts?

schmenge55

What are you race times (recent) for other distances? If your long runs are at 10:00 I am going to guess about 24:30 for a 5k time? What is a marathon PR for you? I am thinking that the first thing to do is to determine if you are on track for your PR irrespective of the 50k. Once you know that I think we could then determine how the 50k fits into training.

essjay76

Ahh! My race times might help. :-) Honestly, I haven't full out raced a 5k in ages (2011). However, I did run 3 miles in 24 minutes just a few days ago and it didn't feel like I was pushing it. So I'm not sure what my 5k time would be now?

Other distances: my marathon PR is from September of 2012 at 4:13. My half marathon PR has improved since then - 1:55 in November of 2013, and this was off my highest mileage week (63 miles) and no taper. I was hoping to PR at Dallas - somewhere between 4:05 to 4:10 realistically.

I know the 50k will be a PR no matter what. I know people have predicted race times based off of shorter races, but how about the other way around? Can the 50k be a useful predictor?

schmenge55

You could use the 50k as a predictor, the charts work in both directions. But I don't think you mean to flat out race the 50k and only 6 weeks out should not since the marathon is the important race. If you just did a half in Nov I think you have a good judgement of fitness already. Let's say you could have done that 1/2 in 1:51 with a taper. The charts would have your marathon at 3:54. Now in my experience that is tough to hit without logging a good 60-70 miles per week for a lot of weeks. You're not that far off of that though. Bottom line is as long as it is a good day physically and weather I think that PR is yours.

if it were me and I wanted to test my fitness more than the 1/2 in November I'd do a 5k trial and use the 50k as something hard, but nowhere near all out, as part of training.

essjay76

That's the thing, I don't know what my 50k race pace would be. LOL. I was thinking that since my long runs are at a 10:00 pace, I could try that. I don't think this will be a full out pace for me... but then again it's new territory.

I haven't thought of doing a 5k as any type of predictor for the full - wouldn't a longer distance be best?

schmenge55

I gotcha. I think you would be OK with the long run pace for the 50k. I assume you will taper for it like you would a full out race? yes, longer is better as a predictor but you just had a half so I don't think you need one. You do not use it so much to predict your finish time as to set training paces and based upon your half your long run paces seem right. Are you doing tempo and interval work as well?

schmenge55

I was at a group run this AM and asked Chris, a veteran of many marathons and some ultras, his thoughts. He suggests the 50k 15" per mile slower than your current long run pace.

vmclach

A 50k would be a better predictor than a 1/2 in my opinion. It's only a 5 mile race difference.. Do you think a 20 miler "race" or a 1/2 mar would be a better race day prediction? I would stick with just using the 50k.. I'd probably just take my 50k pace (after the race) subtract 30 sec per mile and call it your goal marathon pace. Depending on how it goes. It's nice that it's on the road

essjay76

Thanks guys!

Yeah, I was thinking of going even more conservative with that long run + 15 second pace. Maybe try a 10:30 at first.

I have to see how I feel like after the 50k.

Zekela

Doing the 50k sure should build your mental confidence to PR in your marathon over the 1/2 marathon...