Marathon pacing question

davemunger

So, on Sunday I'm pacing a friend at the Minneapolis Marathon. She wants to get her BQ, which is 3:35, an 8:12 pace. It's looking to be a warm-ish, muggy day, possibly rainy, and the course is flat.

I know normally most people like to shoot for an even pace at a marathon but I'm wondering if any of you have thoughts about what to do when the temperature is slated to increase over the course of the race and you're shooting for a specific time. Would it make sense to bank a little time in the cooler morning in anticipation of slowing down as it gets warmer?

I think under ideal conditions my friend would be capable of a 3:30 marathon, an 8:00 pace. What do folks think of doing an easy first mile, in the 8:15-8:20 range, then picking up to around 8:00 for the next 13-14 miles, then gradually slowing down towards the end of the race, aiming to finish at about an 8:20 pace?

vmclach

I don't think it'll get too hot.. With 6:30 am start.. I would do the first 5 easy.. 8:15s.. The slowly increase. Is bank as much time as you can between 12-20. That's where I usually push it. I'm running too... Def. No 3:35 haha but it should be fun!

CarsonRuns

My concern would be that, running the faster pace early will bring on the fatigue at the end that, coupled with the increasing temperatures, will actually exacerbate the issue, causing even a more severe slow down. Running a marathon in humid conditions is no joke. I just found that out a couple weeks ago. I finished almost 15 minutes slower than my PR from 6 months prior, running a 14 minute positive split. 2 hours into the race, it was low 70's, sunny and humid. I started to feel it at mile 16. In retrospect, I should have dropped my goal pace by probably close to 30 seconds per mile.

vmclach

My other questions are-
1- how do you know the paces she's capable of running?
2- is she used to MN weather Ora different climate?
3- how has humidity/heat affected her in the past?

Depending on those answers, maybe mpls was Bas BQ attempt to pick lol

davemunger

My concern would be that, running the faster pace early will bring on the fatigue at the end that, coupled with the increasing temperatures, will actually exacerbate the issue, causing even a more severe slow down. Running a marathon in humid conditions is no joke. I just found that out a couple weeks ago. I finished almost 15 minutes slower than my PR from 6 months prior, running a 14 minute positive split. 2 hours into the race, it was low 70's, sunny and humid. I started to feel it at mile 16. In retrospect, I should have dropped my goal pace by probably close to 30 seconds per mile.

Yeah, I agree. The only thing that is looking good about this forecast is that it is probably not going to be sunny. I think we really need to stick to her BQ pace at a minimum, just so she at least has a shot. Currently the temp isn't slated to hit 70 until 9 am, which is 2.5 hours in. So I think it won't be quite as bad as your race. Plus she has been training in NC, so she should be somewhat acclimatized to humidity.

davemunger

My other questions are-
1- how do you know the paces she's capable of running?
2- is she used to MN weather Ora different climate?
3- how has humidity/heat affected her in the past?

Depending on those answers, maybe mpls was Bas BQ attempt to pick lol

She is totally capable of an 8:00 pace in good conditions. It has been muggy in NC where she has been training so I think she's good there as well. I think she has a shot -- she is well-trained. We did a training run in 80 degrees / 100% humidity a few weeks back!

Carrieendar

As a NC runner, I can definitely say, if she has been running for the last 3 months training here, she will be ready for warmer weather. I am in a cooler part of NC and we have dawn temps of 70 already.

For my 3:30 marathon, I started out at 8:10 then dropped to 8:05 then really picked it up at the 15 mile mark. I think you should stick with your plan and not change it based on ending temps--- but ask her if she has done fast finish long runs in the past couple weeks of heat here. How did she do? That might be a deciding factor for me.

DavidMartinez2

Does your friend have a history of fading in the heat? If not then I would do as the others have suggested and go for even splits.