My First Time (a question about marathon pace)

SteveTries

I think I am about to ask a dumb, dumb question, but it's one I am evidently not smart enough to figure out by myself........

As I embark on training for my first marathon, I am naturally doing my research so that I can assemble my training plan, nutrition plan and race strategies. During that research there are a couple of guidelines I have come across time and again that appear to be generally accepted wisdom:

1) Starting the race too fast burns up energy you need later - every 10 seconds you fun faster than your marathon pace in the early miles will result in you being a minute per mile slower in the closing miles
2) Training runs beyond 20 miles takes a huge toll on the body, are not recommended and could be counter productive because they take a lot of time to recover from, impeding training

Assuming that this 'accepted wisdom' is valid rather than nonsense that has just been repeated so many times it has become popularly accepted erroneously (and I've certainly come across counter-arguments albeit less of them) it begs the question:

Q) Having not run a marathon before, how do I determine my realistic race pace?

If I never run over 20 miles in training, how do I know what pace I can sustain for 26 miles? How do I know that going out at 5m 41s per km (the pace I need to come inside my goal of 4 hours) isn't going to cause me to bonk out at mile 22?

Race calculators are all well and good, but can only ever be a statistic-based estimate. Is there something I can do to gain more confidence of the correct target race pace for me?

All thoughts, opinions and experiences are appreciated.

Thanks,
Steve.

RunnerElizabeth

So I'm new to this too. I guess technically since it is our first marathon we should be just going for the finish. That being said, I have a target of 4:25:10 ( 10:07 min per mile) in mind. This is the time is what I got from the mcmillan calculator based on my 2:06 HM pr (I pushed the stroller for my most recent race). So to achieve the target time of 4:25:10, I'm using the pace suggestions from mcmillan for my runs and hopefully since I'm training at paces that in theory line up with my target time, I'm hoping it's all going to work out. And from people I've talked to, people who peak at 50+ mpw for their first marathon are usually closer to predicted time. But that is just from my own personal survey. I do have a test HM 3 weeks before my marathon (bad timing) for me to see if everything is in line. But the biggest thing I'm doing is to not set a goal of faster than my current prediction. I'm good with using my numbers from last year's racing season even though it stands to reason that I may be somewhat improved with another full year of training under my belt. I feel like staying conservative will serve me better and I can work on faster times for marathon #2.

SonicDeathMonkey80

I think I am about to ask a dumb, dumb question, but it's one I am evidently not smart enough to figure out by myself........

As I embark on training for my first marathon, I am naturally doing my research so that I can assemble my training plan, nutrition plan and race strategies. During that research there are a couple of guidelines I have come across time and again that appear to be generally accepted wisdom:

1) Starting the race too fast burns up energy you need later - every 10 seconds you fun faster than your marathon pace in the early miles will result in you being a minute per mile slower in the closing miles
2) Training runs beyond 20 miles takes a huge toll on the body, are not recommended and could be counter productive because they take a lot of time to recover from, impeding training

Assuming that this 'accepted wisdom' is valid rather than nonsense that has just been repeated so many times it has become popularly accepted erroneously (and I've certainly come across counter-arguments albeit less of them) it begs the question:

Q) Having not run a marathon before, how do I determine my realistic race pace?

If I never run over 20 miles in training, how do I know what pace I can sustain for 26 miles? How do I know that going out at 5m 41s per km (the pace I need to come inside my goal of 4 hours) isn't going to cause me to bonk out at mile 22?

Race calculators are all well and good, but can only ever be a statistic-based estimate. Is there something I can do to gain more confidence of the correct target race pace for me?

All thoughts, opinions and experiences are appreciated.

Thanks,
Steve.

The "erroneous" advice you posted does have some truth to it. I've seen very few plans that called for >20mi training runs (Galloway run/walk being one). About the 10 seconds costing you a minute... better to let that happen during the 20mi training runs than experiment with it on race day.

Without knowing your current MPW and running history, I'd say the generic "add 30min to the McMillan marathon prediction time." And some folksy advice for your first time is that if you feel like you're going too fast, you are, and if you feel like you're going too slow, you're doing it right.

I'm curious as to where you got the 4hr goal from and what you've done to come to that number.

ZenInTexas

I looked at your profile and it says you have a half PR of 1:49, so I think sub 4 is realistic for you provided you have put in the appropriate training for your full. What is your training plan? How many MPW are you running? How many 20 mile runs are you doing?

When I was planning my strategy for my first full I took all the race predictors from my shorter races as well as the data from my 20 mile runs and picked a pace and time that I felt was realistic. I had heard the advice about taking the McMillan goal time from your half and then adding 20-30 minutes but I felt like I had done an appropriate training plan with enough mileage that that wouldn't be needed. As it turned out I was right, I was within one minute of my goal time, which was the McMillan predicted time from the half I had done a couple months before the full.

So I think you have to look at your predicted times, look at how your training has gone, and then have a little faith. Pick a pacing plan and here's the important part...Stick to it!!!! You will feel great in that first 13 miles, even up to 20 miles. It should feel easy, you should feel like you could be going SO much faster. The real race starts at mile 20.

I would highly recommend doing some "fast finish" long runs in your training plan. This is where you do several miles, say 12 out of 20, at your goal marathon pace. This will help give you an idea of whether your goal pace is realistic or not.

litsy3

If I never run over 20 miles in training, how do I know what pace I can sustain for 26 miles? How do I know that going out at 5m 41s per km (the pace I need to come inside my goal of 4 hours) isn't going to cause me to bonk out at mile 22?

Race calculators are all well and good, but can only ever be a statistic-based estimate. Is there something I can do to gain more confidence of the correct target race pace for me?

Steve.

I personally wouldn't try to use your 20 mile run pace to predict what pace you can sustain for 26 miles, because running 20 miles at marathon race pace really would take a massive toll on your body and you'd ideally be running your longest runs a lot slower than marathon pace. I don't think I'd be physically capable of running 20 miles at marathon pace in training even if it were a good idea.

Race calculators assume you have done equally appropriate training for each distance. For most people, they don't work as well for marathons because 'appropriate' training for a marathon is higher mileage than most recreational runners will do. So like SDM says, add half an hour and assume that's more realistic.

If your 4 hour goal is realistic, a good way to see if you can sustain the pace is to add shorter sections of marathon goal pace into your training runs, e.g. warm up for 3 miles, run 7 miles at target pace, cool down for 1 mile. About 4-6 weeks out from the marathon, if you can enter a half, warm up first, then run the half at a really disciplined target marathon pace, that should also give you some good feedback.

Good luck!

lporter229

Bump

SteveTries

some great feedback already - thank you all. I very much appreciate it.

To answer some of the questions:

Why 4 hour target time?
The McMillan calculator (using my HM PB) put that number in my head and it's rather sticking as a target. To be honest, 4:15 will still make me pretty damn happy. But I guess I want to finish feeling like I had done the best I could have done.

Training Plan
I am 5 weeks into a 20 week plan.
6 days per week.
Mixture of easy, hills, fartlek, intervals
Never 2 hard days back to back
Main source is: http://www.runningforfitness.org/book/chapter-12-twenty-six-point-two-miles/training/marathon-training-intermediate

MPW
Has been quite low for several months(c. 20 mile) - have increased over the past 6 weeks gradually. 37 miles this week.
Plan peaks at 50 but most weeks are more like 38-40. I may need to increase that a little.

Number of 20 mile runs in the plan
3 x 20 miles runs
Also 2 x 18 mile runs

litsy3

Okay, my thoughts on your plan are:

- the mileage shown in the total column doesn't seem to include any warm-up/cool-down for the threshold, interval and 'practice' sessions. But I guess you know that, which is why you say it ranges from 38-50 (the totals in the column go from 29-44, so I'm assuming you're adding in a sensible warm-up for anything fast).
- the 'practice' runs later in the plan sounds like the marathon-paced sessions I was suggesting. If you can hold your target pace for 11 miles by yourself (after warming up) you are probably in the right ballpark for the actual marathon.

SonicDeathMonkey80

I think 4:00 is completely reasonable. Given your half marathon PR was over a year ago, I'd hope you can test out your MP at another somewhere early in your training and bust 1:45 too. I was in your boat last year, but undertrained when compared to you (I was doing 20-25 MPW). I ran a 1:45 in Mar 2013, and ran a 4:27 marathon in Sep 2013 - directly reflected my level of training. Last Mar I ran a 1:36 and I'm shooting for a 3:40ish full, a year later with 50+ MPW. Good luck and looking forward to hearing about your success.

lporter229

- the 'practice' runs later in the plan sounds like the marathon-paced sessions I was suggesting. If you can hold your target pace for 11 miles by yourself (after warming up) you are probably in the right ballpark for the actual marathon.

I am a little confused by this. If target pace is slower than HM pace, why would this be a problem?

litsy3

- the 'practice' runs later in the plan sounds like the marathon-paced sessions I was suggesting. If you can hold your target pace for 11 miles by yourself (after warming up) you are probably in the right ballpark for the actual marathon.

I am a little confused by this. If target pace is slower than HM pace, why would this be a problem?

Because you're on your own doing a training run. It's much harder than running in a race, when you are tapered, fully trained, carb loaded and powered by adrenaline. The most I've ever run at target marathon pace on my own is 14 miles, and that was seriously hard. The most I've ever run at target half marathon pace on my own is 6 miles.

By contrast, when you are running the first 14 miles of the marathon, the same pace feels pretty easy (I don't think half marathon pace ever feels easy, not even in the race).

lporter229

Thanks. That makes sense.

How much slower would you say your 20 mile training run pace is vs. your race pace? I struggle with that mental aspect of running my training runs at a vastly slower pace than my race pace because I then don't know for sure what my race pace should be (which is the whole point of this thread, I guess, and why I am following it for advice).

litsy3

For me, my long runs would be about 60-70 secs per mile slower than my marathon pace. Some people think of it in terms of percentages instead, so 15-20% slower. Those practice runs in the schedule linked to above are the time to practice marathon pace, in long enough but controlled amounts that give you a decent workout and a good indication of progress but that you can recover from easily. Or run a half at target marathon pace.

lporter229

I appreciate all of the good info. I can't access the link above at work (blocked) but I will check it out when I get home. I am looking for a good training plan for a January marathon. I am planning on looking for an 18 week plan which would start in September and trying to maintain a base mileage of around 30 MPW between now and then. Does this look like a good plan to you?

litsy3

It looks pretty traditional. If you do choose to follow it I'd recommend buying whatever book it's from, though, which should explain the terminology and how much to warm up etc. I've run two marathons using the plans from Pfitzinger & Douglas's Advanced Marathoning - their 33-55 mile 18 week plan should work for you if you are regularly running 30 mpw before the start of the plan.

SteveTries

great info, very helpful and makes a lot of sense. Thank you.

I'm sticking with my target time of 4 hours - I think if I put in the work I can achieve it. I'll keep observing performance along the next 15 weeks and re-adjust if needed, bringing into play the advice offered above.

I'm going to find a half mara to do 7 or 8 weeks out which should give me some good pointers; I'll have had 12 weeks at a decent mileage and my weight will be down to where I want it, so it's a good spot in the schedule.

lizsmith1976

There are no dumb questions when it comes to your first marathon

Some really good advice above, I just wanted to add (and I haven't checked your plan to see if this is in it), you do your LSDs slower than your goal pace, but towards the end of your training, say last 4 or 5 weeks before your taper, make sure you are adding some goal race pace miles in towards the end.

For example, on a 18 mile run, (sorry - the math on km is too much for my sleepy brain) you would be running each mile slower than your goal pace of 9:09 per mile (that would get you to 4:00). But I would do miles 14-16 or maybe even 14-18 if you feel great, at 9:09 or just under that per mile. That will give you a real feel for how hard that pace is for you towards the end, since you will already have been running for a long time on tired legs. But don't be too discouraged if it is very hard, because you are in the middle of training. Tapering is no fun, but really helps out on race day.

RunnerElizabeth

Here is a related question.... early on in training when long runs are still relatively short (mine are 12 miles right now) is it ok to run them at marathon pace? I get why I wouldn't want to do it for a 20 mile run, but what about a much shorter distance?

litsy3

Here is a related question.... early on in training when long runs are still relatively short (mine are 12 miles right now) is it ok to run them at marathon pace? I get why I wouldn't want to do it for a 20 mile run, but what about a much shorter distance?

12 miles at marathon pace is still hard - especially if you're at the start of the plan, nowhere near marathon-fit yet, and still building up your mileage. Those 12-mile runs are to help build up your endurance so you can do 20-mile runs later.

My long runs are only 13 miles at the moment because I'm not training for a marathon, but I get into trouble with my coach if I consistently run them faster than 'easy' pace.

Carrieendar

I feel like if you are at the begining of the training cycle and you can run 12 miles at your marathon pace without compromising recovery, then you can run that marathon probably quite a bit faster (if its a goal you are interested in). I would personally still stick with conversational pace for long slow distance and leave Fast Finish/ long runs with significant mileage at MP to a bit later in the program so as not to cause burn out. I like to feel a definite peak in training.

schmenge55

Providing the pace does not leave you too tired to do your other runs well probably no harm. The more experience you have with Marathons the more MP running you end up doing.

schmenge55

In the end pace is just an easy way to quantify effort. You want your effort for the long run to be that conversation pace effort and that effort will change with temps, humidity, terrain, etc. Let effort be your guide. And if a little slow, o worries. You are getting "leg time."

CarsonRuns

Bumping so I can provide my input tomorrow. Just too tired tonight after working a chainsaw (not code) for 2.5 hours after work.

fleetzz

Still waiting to hear from Carson..

SteveTries

Continuing this theme.... :-)

I'm curious to hear from marathoners who use a HRM how your Marathon HR differs from your half-Mara HR. I'd find this a useful frame of reference. If you're willing to share your Garmin Connect trace, even better :laugh:


I know, I know.....I'm over thinking everything, I should just take it all as it comes and use it as a learning experience.

I can't argue with the wisdom of that advice, but I am just not wired that way. At the finish line, I need to feel like I did all I could to prepare and maximised my performance on the day. Especially if I am going to ask people to sponsor me for charity.

vmclach

Continuing this theme.... :-)

I'm curious to hear from marathoners who use a HRM how your Marathon HR differs from your half-Mara HR. I'd find this a useful frame of reference. If you're willing to share your Garmin Connect trace, even better :laugh:


I know, I know.....I'm over thinking everything, I should just take it all as it comes and use it as a learning experience.

I can't argue with the wisdom of that advice, but I am just not wired that way. At the finish line, I need to feel like I did all I could to prepare and maximised my performance on the day. Especially if I am going to ask people to sponsor me for charity.

I'm 22... Been running for ~3 years competitively..

1/2 marathon PR 1:33- my HR was around 178 for the first 9 miles then skyrocked into the 185s-190s the last 3-4 miles.
Full marathon PR 3:27- my HR was 165 the first 13 miles then I started the "grind" & it got into the 170s... Peaked at 185ish... My HR is abnormally fast when running. I've been told it's because of my age & experience level.

My HR has gotten above 200 in shorter races. Not fun

SteveTries

Great intel. Thanks very much!!

_Josee_

Thanks. That makes sense.

How much slower would you say your 20 mile training run pace is vs. your race pace? I struggle with that mental aspect of running my training runs at a vastly slower pace than my race pace because I then don't know for sure what my race pace should be (which is the whole point of this thread, I guess, and why I am following it for advice).

I ran my first full May 25th. I was having the same question as you while I was training for it.

If it can helps you:
- One month prior to my full, I ran a 1:45 half (7:56)
- I ran a 3:49 full (8:42 pace)
- I did a 30K race 2 months prior to my full, I ran a 2:42 (8:34)
- I did 2x 20 miles in training at 9:27 and 9:25 pace.

I never race with a HRM, maybe I should to collect more data

vmclach

Great intel. Thanks very much!!

And your initial question..

When I ran a

4:09 marathon (my first)- 20 mile training run was at 9:00 pace
3:47-3:43 marathon- 16-20 milers were around 8:20-8:55 pace, 1:41 half PR, 21:20 5k,
3:27-3:31 marathon- 16-20milers were 8:15-7:45 pace, 1:33-1:35 half shape, sub 20 5k

Now I'm hoping to run a 3:10 in the fall.. My long runs will hopefully be around 7:50 pace with a fast finish/tempo incorporated closer to the 7:15-7:00 range..

Carrieendar

Great intel. Thanks very much!!

And your initial question..

When I ran a

4:09 marathon (my first)- 20 mile training run was at 9:00 pace
3:47-3:43 marathon- 16-20 milers were around 8:20-8:55 pace, 1:41 half PR, 21:20 5k,
3:27-3:31 marathon- 16-20milers were 8:15-7:45 pace, 1:33-1:35 half shape, sub 20 5k

Now I'm hoping to run a 3:10 in the fall.. My long runs will hopefully be around 7:50 pace with a fast finish/tempo incorporated closer to the 7:15-7:00 range..

This is interesting. I have been trying to decide what marathon time to shoot for, knowing this marathon has a lot of hills in it (approx maybe 1200 ft climb total?) but I held 8 min miles for the philly marathon and am training a lot more for this one. I ran my last 15 miler last weekend at 8 min miles average with the last two miles at 6:45. I keep wondering if 3:15 is a possible goal for me....I have a 42:50 10k and a 44:04 10k in the past 4 months (the later one being 93 degrees, humid and hilly in the afternoon race). I have a 10 miler coming up in september and thought I would maybe guage better using that...I dunno....my goal marathon is nov 2.

NorthCountryDreamer

I stopped using a heart rate monitor a long time ago. I was running marathons around 3:20 and I found that my beats per minute increased steadily through the entire race. This was nothing like my training beats per minute. I wasn't sure what that all meant so I stopped tracking heart rate. I believe in sticking to a proper training schedule and trusting it, will be all you need to reach a new personal best. On race day a well prepared mind and body will deliver. New marathoners often start too fast. Knowing your pace and sticking to the plan is wise.