Pacing strategy for my first marathon

ekat120

I have my first marathon coming up in 3 weeks (ack!), and I'm trying to make a plan. I know my primary goal should be to finish, but I'd also like to know that I gave it a good effort and didn't sell myself short.

In my ideal world, I would come in under 4 hrs. My half PR is 1:50, set in May on pretty terrible training. For my marathon prep, I ran 109 mi in June, 120 mi in July, and 175 mi in August. September will be about 135. Mostly easy miles at a 10-10:30 pace, no formal speedwork since maybe June.

My 18, 20, and 22 (yesterday) mile runs all went really well. I finished them all at a comfortable 10 min mile and had energy left at the end of each. Yesterday, my last 6 miles were my fastest.

So, with that background:
1) Do you think a 4-hour goal is realistic? If not, what should I aim for?
2) I'm wary of starting out too fast. How slowly should I start, and how should I go about picking up the pace? Should I just try to hang with the 4-hour pace group the whole time? Or should I start with, say, the 4:10 group and work my way up after a while (6, 7, ??? miles)?

If you want more detail on my training, my log is at: https://www.runningahead.com/logs/0e918ec40d6749ff9b3cc761bec23751

As you can probably tell, I sometimes overthink things Any help you could give would also be appreciated by my husband, who is pretty sick of hearing about my marathon training :flowerforyou:

essjay76

First off, congrats on your running and your decision to tackle your first marathon! Sounds like you have had good training so far.

I'm no expert, but "it's not my first rodeo", :-) so I can only speak from experience. I'm particularly interested in seeing how you'll do because we have similar goals, times, and training.

Your half time ideally points to a 4 hour marathon. I don't know how long you've been running, or what your athletic background is, but with a first marathon, anything can happen.

I say start with the 4:10 group and see how you feel later down the line. The real race starts at Mile 20 and you'll feel awesome being able to pass all the folks who started out too fast in the beginning!

If it helps any, I ran a 4:13 full, and a few months before that, a 1:55 half. I'm a mileage junkie and don't do any speedwork. I have another full in December and have to run a tune-up race to determine my goal. But, it's similar to yours (1:50 half and 4 hour marathon). I know there are plenty of runners on here who can tell you how it worked for them on their first marathon - will give you a better idea of what to expect.


Good luck!!

ekat120

Thanks! I've been running somewhat consistently for about 3 years (with short stints before that) and have done 5 HMs in that time, plus a handful of shorter races. This is the first time I've done a good job of sticking to a training plan. My HM PR was off embarrassingly low mileage (peaked at 18 mi/wk with a 9-mi long run...), so I'm hopeful the extra mileage will count for something on race day.

I think you're probably right about starting with the 4:10 group. I want to make sure I don't bite off more than I can chew pace-wise. And I do love passing people at the end of races! I'll be sure to update you on how it goes

ATT949

You'll get lots of good advice from other folks but I'd like to pass along a quip that drives the point home. I can't cite the source but it goes something like "Most races are won or lost in the first minute."* (I think it's Jack Daniels who said that - the coach, not the bourbon.)

Good luck with your marathon!


*many runners are too psyched up so they run too hard and burn out

litsy3

I would aim to run even splits at your target pace. It sounds realistic enough based on your half time and your training, and if you start too slow you won't make it ALL up later however much energy you have left.

SteveTries

Here's why I think you can realistically get inside of 4 hours:

I am in a similar position to you. HM best of 1:49, first mara next month and going for 4hrs.

My long runs are at 6 min km pace and I am very, very confident I can sustain that for the race, which would be 4hrs 13mins

However unlike you:
a) my half mara PR took some serious training
b) my 18 and 20 miles runs are leaving me wiped out with nothing left in the tank

So I am having a lot of doubts about my ability to sustain 20s per km faster than my training runs (to get inside 4hrs), but your training performance suggests the opposite to me. I think 4 hours is highly viable for you.

ekat120

Hmmm...Decisions, decisions!

I'm thinking if there's a 4:05 pace group, I'll hang with them for the first 6-8 miles and then slowly pick up the pace if I'm feeling good. Otherwise, I'll start with the 4:00 pace group. But I'm still going to be very cautious to make sure I don't go out too fast.

sjb74uk, I think if I'd done my long runs at your pace (which is15-20 sec/mi faster than mine), I'd be pretty wiped out, too. I bet once you taper and get some of that race day magic, dropping 20sec/km will be a piece of cake. Be sure to let us know how you do!

odywithaj

I think it totally depends on how your training runs have gone...

Personally, I start out slow anyways (always have, just that type of runner) it takes me awhile to "warm up" anyways, so starting a long race/training run, I just pretend the first 4 min are part of my warm up.

I have a similar pace/timing to you and did my first marathon in 4hrs 6 min. My PR half was 2:00:06. Like i said i always start out slow.. You can make up a few minutes of a slow pace in the end, but can't recoup from going out fast.. If you have time try it on a LSD, it'll show you that you can't better than us explaining it on a website

derekj222

everyone is different. I would never tell anyone to try to 4:00 for their first, because whether you know it or not, most people get the **** kicked out of them their first marathon. I did as well as many of my other runner friends. Most will agree. Start your first mile at least about 1min/mile slower than what you want to do for the rest of the race. So maybe 10:00 for first mile, 9:00 for remainder. Holding back is hard, but its crucial. Don't get caught up in the start line hype. The people that dart off will be walking miles 20-26. I think you should take it a little more easier and not try for 4:00. maybe a 4:20??? I have ran 6 marathons now in the past 20 months. I've done awesome and I've bonked bad...but I still finished. Finishing is the biggest accomplishment.

Have you run any other races farther than a 1/2? 25K or something further? You can't always go on half times, the marathon distance is a beast, and many can run tons of 1/2's but will never tackle a full.

ZenInTexas

I have my first marathon coming up in 3 weeks (ack!), and I'm trying to make a plan. I know my primary goal should be to finish, but I'd also like to know that I gave it a good effort and didn't sell myself short.

In my ideal world, I would come in under 4 hrs. My half PR is 1:50, set in May on pretty terrible training. For my marathon prep, I ran 109 mi in June, 120 mi in July, and 175 mi in August. September will be about 135. Mostly easy miles at a 10-10:30 pace, no formal speedwork since maybe June.

My 18, 20, and 22 (yesterday) mile runs all went really well. I finished them all at a comfortable 10 min mile and had energy left at the end of each. Yesterday, my last 6 miles were my fastest.

So, with that background:
1) Do you think a 4-hour goal is realistic? If not, what should I aim for?
2) I'm wary of starting out too fast. How slowly should I start, and how should I go about picking up the pace? Should I just try to hang with the 4-hour pace group the whole time? Or should I start with, say, the 4:10 group and work my way up after a while (6, 7, ??? miles)?

If you want more detail on my training, my log is at: https://www.runningahead.com/logs/0e918ec40d6749ff9b3cc761bec23751

As you can probably tell, I sometimes overthink things Any help you could give would also be appreciated by my husband, who is pretty sick of hearing about my marathon training :flowerforyou:

I think your 4 hour goal is very realistic. I would plug your goal time into a negative split calculator and then stick to the plan. Resist the urge to go faster than your goal time for the first 20 miles. If you hit mile 21 feeling great then that's the time to kick it up.

I ran my first marathon in 4:05. My half PR wasn't quite as strong as yours, 1:55, but I had higher training mileage. I picked my most optimistic but realistic finishing time and paced myself to run it. I ran a negative split. It feels AMAZING to pass people at the end. In the second half of my race I passed over 900 people and only 11 passed me. Pacing is everything. And like you, I also obsessed to the nth degree over my pacing strategy. :flowerforyou:

ekat120

I would plug your goal time into a negative split calculator and then stick to the plan.

Um, how did I not know that this was a thing?! I found one that gave me this: http://www.runningforfitness.org/calc/racepaces/split?metres=42195&hr=4&min=0&sec=0&gamma=0.51&splits=q&Submit=Calculate which feels doable and is similar to how I ran my 22-miler last weekend (if you add ~45 sec to each of the miles).

DavidMartinez2

I do not like first timers going into a marathon with any time goal. I think a goal of finishing should be sufficient. If you must go for a specific time I say stick with the 4 hour pace group for the first 20 miles and see how you feel at that point. That tends to be one of the larger groups so you will have lots of people to keep you motivated and distracted from how much running for 4 hours sucks :P After 20 take a self inventory and decide if you want to sped up, slow down, or stay with your group. Good luck.

litsy3

I do not like first timers going into a marathon with any time goal. I think a goal of finishing should be sufficient.

I don't agree with this at all. I think you need at least some idea if only to know how to pace from the start, and I don't see why someone with a decent block of training behind them wouldn't be able to make a reasonable judgment. Also, when I did my first marathon I wasn't going to devote 18 weeks of training focus to 'just finishing'. It takes enough work to do a marathon at all (i.e. including all the weeks of training) to make it worthwhile to also try and do the best you can.

lporter229

I would love to hear an update on how things work out for you. I am in a similar boat for my January marathon. My half PR is currently 1:52, which was fairly easy for me and also set almost a year ago, so I am pretty confident I can get that down around a 1:50. I have run one previous marathon, but it was paced by a friend and is not a true reflection of what I feel I can do (it was just under 5 hours). I also would like to shoot for sub 4 hours, but I am worried about going out too fast as well. I have no advice other than to say "Good Luck" and please keep us updated.

JustWant2Run

I do not like first timers going into a marathon with any time goal. I think a goal of finishing should be sufficient.

I don't agree with this at all. I think you need at least some idea if only to know how to pace from the start, and I don't see why someone with a decent block of training behind them wouldn't be able to make a reasonable judgment. Also, when I did my first marathon I wasn't going to devote 18 weeks of training focus to 'just finishing'. It takes enough work to do a marathon at all (i.e. including all the weeks of training) to make it worthwhile to also try and do the best you can.

I agree with Litsy. I don't understand how you can run a successful marathon with the goal to finish? How to you pace yourself for finishing?

I ran my first in May. McMillan and Daniels were predicting a 3:40 marathon based on my 1:45 half. Everyone was telling me McMillan +20-25 minutes for a first but I was convinced I could go sub 4:00. I decided to pace myself for a 3:48 with 3:45 being my ultimate goal and sub 4:00 my backup goal. It was actually hard to keep myself from going faster in the first half... It felt too easy... But I kept with it and ended up passing THOUSANDS of people in the second half. The number of people walking pass the 22 miles mark surprised me. I ended up not walking a single step and with a 3:49 finish time (1 minute slower than my pace goal).

I guess all I am saying is you need a goal to pace yourself. Pacing is IMHO what makes a marathon a success or not.

ZenInTexas

I do not like first timers going into a marathon with any time goal. I think a goal of finishing should be sufficient.

I don't agree with this at all. I think you need at least some idea if only to know how to pace from the start, and I don't see why someone with a decent block of training behind them wouldn't be able to make a reasonable judgment. Also, when I did my first marathon I wasn't going to devote 18 weeks of training focus to 'just finishing'. It takes enough work to do a marathon at all (i.e. including all the weeks of training) to make it worthwhile to also try and do the best you can.

I agree with Litsy. I don't understand how you can run a successful marathon with the goal to finish? How to you pace yourself for finishing?

I ran my first in May. McMillan and Daniels were predicting a 3:40 marathon based on my 1:45 half. Everyone was telling me McMillan +20-25 minutes for a first but I was convinced I could go sub 4:00. I decided to pace myself for a 3:48 with 3:45 being my ultimate goal and sub 4:00 my backup goal. It was actually hard to keep myself from going faster in the first half... It felt too easy... But I kept with it and ended up passing THOUSANDS of people in the second half. The number of people walking pass the 22 miles mark surprised me. I ended up not walking a single step and with a 3:49 finish time (1 minute slower than my pace goal).

I guess all I am saying is you need a goal to pace yourself. Pacing is IMHO what makes a marathon a success or not.

I agree with this too. You have to have a goal time in mind to plan for pacing. However, I think first time (or anytime) marathoners shouldn't beat themselves up if they don't make that goal. There are so many variables that go into running a marathon that you can't plan or account for. So in that sense the goal should be to be satisfied with completing it.

DavidMartinez2

I think the average person running their first marathon needs to worry more about making it through the race in one piece and not driving themselves bonkers worrying about what pace they are running. If you must worry about pace the answer should be "Slow Down", not struggling to meet a time goal and having a miserable time.

sjohnny

I do not like first timers going into a marathon with any time goal. I think a goal of finishing should be sufficient.

I don't agree with this at all. I think you need at least some idea if only to know how to pace from the start, and I don't see why someone with a decent block of training behind them wouldn't be able to make a reasonable judgment. Also, when I did my first marathon I wasn't going to devote 18 weeks of training focus to 'just finishing'. It takes enough work to do a marathon at all (i.e. including all the weeks of training) to make it worthwhile to also try and do the best you can.

This is my feeling (I'm getting ready for my first so take it for what it's worth). I have a time goal based on how my training is going, how I've done on past races, and what seems reasonable. I'm not going to be crushed if I don't get it. But mostly it's to give me a pace to stick to so I don't burn out too fast. If I had absolutely no time goal whatsoever it would be a lot harder to decide how slow to run.

wombat94

I don't agree with this at all. I think you need at least some idea if only to know how to pace from the start, and I don't see why someone with a decent block of training behind them wouldn't be able to make a reasonable judgment. Also, when I did my first marathon I wasn't going to devote 18 weeks of training focus to 'just finishing'. It takes enough work to do a marathon at all (i.e. including all the weeks of training) to make it worthwhile to also try and do the best you can.

I'll join the chorus agreeing with this.

I'm training for my first marathon now, and I definitely have a goal time... it is SLOW, but it is there.

I didn't have goal times for my first 5k, 10k, 7 mile or 10 mile races... They were all just "get to the finish line without injury or heat stroke" kind of races for me.

When I trained for my first HM, I did have a time in mind... I didn't hit the time (missed by about 2 minutes), but I took what I learned and applied it and not only beat that original goal but took another 12 minutes off when I PRed in my second HM... I realized that I could have raced the first HM better and applied that along with another 12 weeks of vigorous training in the second race.

I wasn't upset that I had missed my goal time in the first HM... but I didn't want to set too aggressive of a goal to begin with because I didn't want to flame out.

That is the basic approach I am taking for my first marathon. I've set a goal time that I will use for pacing the race based on how my training and further test races have been going. I'm comfortable with the time goal, but if I miss it I don't mind (this may be the last distance race I ever run where I have an automatic PR coming !)... the real goal for this race is not just to finish, but to "finish well" - which to me means running the race I plan and not ending up death marching the last few miles.

Ted

saskie78

I most definitely think you can do 4 hours. I'm an even-paced runner, but I think everyone runs a little different, so a negative split may be just the thing for you. Just make sure it jives with the course you will be running. For example, if the second half turns into hill city after a flat first half, negative splits may not be the best thing to bank on.

Good luck and enjoy!

ekat120

I do not like first timers going into a marathon with any time goal. I think a goal of finishing should be sufficient.

I don't agree with this at all. I think you need at least some idea if only to know how to pace from the start, and I don't see why someone with a decent block of training behind them wouldn't be able to make a reasonable judgment. Also, when I did my first marathon I wasn't going to devote 18 weeks of training focus to 'just finishing'. It takes enough work to do a marathon at all (i.e. including all the weeks of training) to make it worthwhile to also try and do the best you can.

This is my feeling (I'm getting ready for my first so take it for what it's worth). I have a time goal based on how my training is going, how I've done on past races, and what seems reasonable. I'm not going to be crushed if I don't get it. But mostly it's to give me a pace to stick to so I don't burn out too fast. If I had absolutely no time goal whatsoever it would be a lot harder to decide how slow to run.

That's my feeling. 4 hrs is an ideal--I'll be thrilled if I get it, but won't really be disappointed if I don't. But I'm trying to come up with something that seems reasonable so I know how fast to go. I've talked to people who went out too slow because they were afraid of crashing.

That said, I'm going to aim for a slight negative split so I can reassess and decide whether or not to continue to pick up the pace or ease off, depending on how I feel. The calculator I found starts at 9:30 (which is actually my easy run pace now that it's starting to cool down) and drops a second or 2 every mile. I've naturally sped up in the last 4-6 miles of each of my long runs, so I think doing the same on race day makes sense. I'll be sure to update! Thanks for all the advice so far, and I'll take whatever else you have to offer!