I show your Mifflin BMR as 1686, as that calc is 5% more accurate than Harris you used, yes yours is inflated.
And if you had bodyfat % estimate for more accurate Katch BMR, it could be even lower, or higher.

So the problem with the rough 5 level TDEE table, it assumes foundation of sedentary desk job and commute 45 hrs weekly.

You are lightly active with just your kiddo by itself. Because you have 5 days of week of NOT work, right, 45 hr job-like time NOT sedentary at desk job.
Is exercise by itself really only 3 hrs a week?

The two together are NOT Lightly Active level at all, Moderately active depending on how much time in your workout and what it is you don't mention. Cardio and lifting, so good. But 3 hrs of walking daily isn't the same as a 15 warmup on treadmill, right?
And 4 days a week and evening workout.
Be honest, 4-5 hr is Moderately Active if just exercise, your daily life would bump that up too.

Be aware that when figure out your exercise calories, you better have 1 really accurate burn figure, and a HRM isn't it for lifting.
Cardio likely is, depending on how accurate it is for you.

Now, even if dead on accurate with reported calorie burn, that is in total, what you would have burned during that time, and what you burned extra. In other words total Gross burn, NOT the NET burn over and above.

So doing the math with BMR and partial eatback is incorrect using Gross figure.

You already have account for every hour of your day an expected level of burn too, so what you really want is what did you burn above and beyond already accounted for.

What is already accounted for?
Your TDEE.
So TDEE / 24 = what you planned on burning already.

So whatever the HRM reports per hour, subtract that amount from the figure for how much you burned above and beyond.
Same with looking at strength training with MFP, which is more accurate than HRM, must subtract those calories.

So, got some corrections to your activity level and BMR, and if BF% known perhaps even more.