Carson would wisely tell you to put in tons and tons of easy miles to build the aerobic engine.

The truth is none of know how fast we'll end up until we try.

Arbitrary time goals (sub 4, BQ, etc.) are just that, so be careful with them. I can tell you what does NOT work, going out at BQ pace and trying to hold on when you aren't in shape to do so. That will lead to a bonk every time.

Good luck!

I've only got one full under my belt. I think that works against me as well. A more doable goal might be to shave a good ~20min off the next one, and then bite off another chunk of time in a subsequent.

Or of course, I can wait until I'm 45 and the time drops by 10 mins. either way

Edited for more info: I'm not specifically looking for 2015, it's just a goal I'd like to hit in the next few years.

Yeah, turning 45 helped a bunch for me. You can actually qualify when you are 44 as long as you turn 45 by the marathon date. I qualified on my third try, after about 2 years of serious training. When I started I could barely run a 9:00 mile. To give you a sense of how random it is, I've run 7 marathons since I qualified and haven't had a BQ time since (though only 3 of those races were actual attempts to qualify).

Pete- you know I went from 4:09 to 3:27... From my 4:09 I needed a 34 min improvement... Did I do it? Yes. I took 41 min off. Stop acting like it's impossible when you've seen shining examples. A year ago I would have laughed at you if you said of run a 3:27.. But I had to change my mindset to "why can't i".. Pete, why can't you? Why not you? You have the raw speed to do it. I know you do. But do you want it bad?

It took me 5 times to qualify, but I did it. You will do

It is all about what timeframe you are talking about. 2015 is tough because the cutoff is September; you really only have one shot. I would suggest targeting a fall marathon with dedicated training to PR that race. Once that is done you can see where you are at and adjust as necessary for a Spring 2015 race to make your BQ attempt.

From my first marathon in March 2010 being a 3:55 and then dropping to 3:25 a year later. I did a lot of cross training(tri) from 2011 till early 2013 when I made the decsion to go for BQ and focused almost only on running.....I went from 3:26 in march of last year to a 3:09:50 (my BQ) in October.... take that as you will...... I did qualify but not by enough I am sure so it's back to the training board, few tri's first ...... guess that was a long way to say YES you can!!

I don't understand why all the negativity in this thread. MFP is a place for support.

I have no clue if you are capable. I think for any human being, it is a high goal. I'm in your boat, except not trying to BQ. I just want an enjoyable USAF Marathon in September and an even better one in Chicago, but my PR is way slower than yours so my standards are a little easier. Plus, for what it's worth, I'd like to be a little more competitive compared to you and a bunch of my other friends in the full. I'm taking the route of volume and gradually working my way into hopefully 60-70 MPW with a few races peppered in there to keep me sharp.

My strategy is to wait until I'm 75. If I end up in a wheelchair, I'll hire Victoria to push me.

I'll raise some money to make sure you have a nice wheelchair.

I've got this NAILED. Boston 2047!!!!

As an old guy, I know that some speed improvement is in my future. Speed shows up in my shorter runs and there is that whole aerobic capacity issue. In my age class I have to run a 3:55 in a qualifier race. That's an 1:02 under what I just ran.

But things also have to line up right and that's a judgment for race day. Although I had been clipping along for a pace of 4:21-4:30 in training, the temperature was much warmer at the start of the race than just about any day we'd had recently. And 4 hours later it was going to be in the high 70's to low 80's and we'd simply not had much of that weather to train in. There was so much of the road course that exposed you to baking in the sun on a hilly course, that the smart money (if I wasn't trying to qualify for anything or prove that I could actually run that fast) was to throttle back at the turn around point (15.7) and then comfortably cruise back in (if the three large hills on the way back could be called "cruising?").

But I'll also tell you that I didn't run so hard that I felt miserable at the end (or worse. Two people died on the course running the half-marathon just a couple of hours in front of me. If you die trying, you don't qualify for anything. It's a little like my mountain climbing; it doesn't count as "bagging a summit" if you die on the way back down). There was no wall or "survival to the end" for me. This is the terrain I train in and I made a strategic and tactical choice for this (my third) marathon. Even though there was more vertical elevation in this race than any I've run, I set a PR and felt better and had the fastest recovery from the distance than the two previous marathons I've had so far.

My running buddy, who decided to try to run a faster pace than what I had set out to do and has finished marathons with far faster times, found himself at "the wall" at mile 20 with the 800 pound gorilla stomping on him and trying to throw him through that wall. He ended up with one of his worst times and in the medical tent for feet and exhaustion issues. In the last 6 miles I was closing on him and if I knew where he was on the course, I would have had enough in the tank to overtake him before the finish. But I was enjoying myself with many of the first-timers that were running this race and who were trying to survive to the end.

In the end, I didn't look like I'd just run 26 miles. My running buddy looked like 26 miles had run over him. I won't run another marathon until fall so I won't be trying to make up for the pace I didn't run for this one. The fact that I could run the last 0.87 miles at a 7:53 pace tells you everything you need to know about how much I had left in the tank at the end (I haven't run a 5K at that pace yet and my fastest track time is 7:20 for a single mile. I did this after completing more than 25 miles on the road course).

I will, however, enter the summer training period uninjured to work on both the speed and distance. And there will be shorter races to hone parts of my training.

But, I am just an old guy, new to this whole marathon thing....

Bottom line, racing a marathon is tricky business, there is little margin for error as going out just a little too fast usually results in a blow up (or at least a slow down at the end). Even if you line up in great shape, you still need things to go your way (good weather and feeling good that day)

This is not to be confused with surviving/completing a marathon (nothing wrong with that, I've done it plenty of times myself).

I would try take it in chunks, unless you are genetically gifted, it's going to take some experience to get that 3:15.

The magical feeling of NOT blowing up because you are running at the proper pace is awesome. Nothing better than passing runners left and right over the last 5+ miles.

Good luck!