Sub 3hr Marathon, possible or dreaming?
taeliesyn
Posts: 1,116 Member
Ok, so not that long ago I did my first Half Marathon, I went out with a group pacing for a sub 2hr finish, I left them about half way through and finished in 1:54:26 (Net time. Gun was about 2 minutes faster) I had a fairly decent negative split on the HM. This course has about 891 feet of elevation change (According to Strava) for the HM. This was done off approx 20 miles a week, for the last 3 months. No focused HM training.
A friend who as part of his training for a 50 miler, ran a 3:12 and change has offered to pace to a 3:30 finish. I'm tempted to jump on that bus, but seeing as I have close to 12 months to train and I'm honestly fairly confident about a 3:30 Marathon finish with focused training, but now I've got the sub 3hr idea ticking around.
So am I dreaming, or is this actually a possibility? I've only been running for about 12 months.
My current pb's are
5k 23:03
10k 50:21 (Set on the back half of my HM)
HM 1:54:26
I had people both encourage me and tell me I was stupid when I put up about doing a 75km 'race' So I know this group will give me the honest opinion.
A friend who as part of his training for a 50 miler, ran a 3:12 and change has offered to pace to a 3:30 finish. I'm tempted to jump on that bus, but seeing as I have close to 12 months to train and I'm honestly fairly confident about a 3:30 Marathon finish with focused training, but now I've got the sub 3hr idea ticking around.
So am I dreaming, or is this actually a possibility? I've only been running for about 12 months.
My current pb's are
5k 23:03
10k 50:21 (Set on the back half of my HM)
HM 1:54:26
I had people both encourage me and tell me I was stupid when I put up about doing a 75km 'race' So I know this group will give me the honest opinion.
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Replies
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Very unlikely, unless you turn out to have above-average levels of aptitude and haven't been putting very much effort into the last three months.0
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Ask David Martinez or Litsy if this is possible
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I think you are being a little too greedy about your first full. You really can't compare your half and use that as a predictor of your first full....down the line, when you've got some more marathons under your belt, you can better feel for what you can possibly do. But for your first, ask a lot of people what they expected to finish their first marathon in, and then what they ACTUALLY finished their marathon in. Not too many met their goals. sub 3hr is possible in a few years maybe, but I think you are too early in running to gauge that, you don't have enough times to compare it to.0
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With a year of solid training (and staying 100% healthy) you MIGHT hit 3:30. Your goal for your first marathon should be just to finish. A few months ago I was dreaming of a 3:30 marathon, never entertained the idea of sub-3. Now I think 3:30 might even be a stretch after training all year. Focus on building your base for now.0
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I don't really believe in the idea that your goal for your first marathon 'should' be anything (mine certainly wasn't just to finish, because if I was going to put all the effort into training for it, I wanted more than that). But unless the OP has a natural talent for running (and the potential to run much, much faster than 3 hours in the future), a year isn't long enough to build from such a small base to the level of training and endurance he'd need to run sub 3 hours, in my view.0
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I agree with the others. Sub 3 is dreaming right now. Give a few years of hard work and you never know but in a year, no way. For comparison my PR's are faster than yours at every distance and I'm training my *kitten* off right now to try and run a 3:45 full. For another comparison my husband who is only a couple years older than you ran a 20 minute 5k and a 45 minute 10k in his first year of running and did a 3:32 marathon for his first full, on pretty minimal training. But keep running and keep training and see what you can do! Just don't set the bar so high that you make your goal unattainable.0
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Hmmm yeah... I agree with what everyone said so far. It might be *possible* but probably unlikely.
A guy from my running club went out with the idea of a sub 3:00 (2:45) for his first marathon because that was what race predictors were telling him he could run... He had been running competively in shorter distances. His 10K time was around 34:00 and half time around 1:15. It didn't go as well as he planned and ended up with a 3:10 (far from 2:45). He had a miserable experience and never ran another marathon after that.
He was a fast and experienced runner and he didn't respect the distance. You aren't that fast and your aren't experienced. Recipe for disaster. Train well, experience what a marathon is all about, then set a goal for your second one. Good luck!0 -
Honestly, I may not post much in her, but I truly love this group for it's outright honestly. I do need a virtual slap in the face now and then.
Litsy, I honestly haven't been putting much effort into my training. I've been enjoying getting out for increased miles but generally haven't put much focus in, except for finishing my runs. I didn't sign up for my HM until the Monday before the event.
I don't know if this will be my first marathon or if I will try a marathon earlier or not. But I am definitely reading the vibe here.
I will probably keep my aim as a 'lofty' goal, but I will be realistic about my training and see what happens with everything.
My long term goal is ultra's so I may aim for them and see how it all pans out for the Marathon.0 -
It's a loong way from a 1:54 half to a 3:00 full, but it's possible -- maybe not in a year, but it's definitely possible. Heck, it's a long way from a 1:54 half to a 3:30 full. Normally I'd advise someone who just ran a 1:50-ish half to shoot for a 4-hour marathon, not a 3-hour marathon. To give you some sense of the arc of possibility, I ran a half 6 months out from my first marathon and hit a 1:51. I had an aggressive training regimen, doing up to 70-mile weeks, and ended up completing that marathon in 3:37. Six months after that I ran a 3:22, with similar training.
But maybe you are physiologically better-suited to marathons than I am. You never know. To me, however, a 3:30 sounds like a more attainable goal for your first marathon. It's still very ambitious, and only doable if you bump up your miles and stay injury-free. What you decide to shoot for is up to you.0 -
Litsy, I honestly haven't been putting much effort into my training. I've been enjoying getting out for increased miles but generally haven't put much focus in, except for finishing my runs. I didn't sign up for my HM until the Monday before the event.
Okay, so I asked that because if you'd worked at all for the HM and still only run 1:54, that would prove that you definitely aren't capable of running a sub 3 hour marathon in a year. So I will stick with just 'probably' not. Build up your mileage gradually and enter a few shorter races along the way to gauge your progress before you pick a goal.0 -
Thanks everyone, I know if I asked this elsewhere I would simply get a flood of encouragement.
Honestly would be happy to finish the marathon, but there is nothing wrong with aiming high.0 -
I think that even 3:30 is a lofty goal for a first marathon based on your current race times, your running history and your current training load.
I ran my first marathon after I had been running for over 5 years. I ran 3:38 with my mileage peaking in the low 70 mile per week range.
A year after that, and over 2600 more training miles, I ran 3:26, with mileage peaking around 80 miles per week.
A year after that and over 2600 more training miles, I ran 3:12, with mileage peaking around 85 miles per week.
A year after that, and over 2800 more training miles, I ran 3:10, with mileage peaking around 90 miles per week.
So, as you can see, there was a very slow progression even with the very high mileage required to build the aerobic base necessary to, not just run, but perform in the marathon.
It's a distance that must be respected. You can't muscle through it. Early mistakes in pacing are magnified 10 fold. You have the very real potential to deplete your glycogen stores, and most first timers do. This is a sensation unlike any other you will feel in a foot race. It's nearly impossible to prepare for this, and equally impossible to just push through it.0 -
Thanks Carson 0
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Not that you need to hear it again, but I agree with everyone else. I ran a 1:45 HM on about 6mos/200mi of erratic training, and I went headstrong into a full with 600 lifetime/yearly and came out with a 4:27. That was for a few reasons including not respecting the distance, unexpected race day heat, being a total noob, and doing 20 MPW going into it. Fast forward exactly 1 year, and I will have ~2500 lifetime miles (~1500 in 2014) and I'm shooting for 3:35 +/- 5min. And that's if everything else goes right. With your enthusiasm and willingness to listen/learn, your abilities will catch up with your ambition soon enough.0
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Thanks Doug, and everyone else.. I really wish MFP had the ability to like replies/thread posts.
I know I'm probably dreaming. In the next few weeks I'll have a gps watch (Fenix 2 no HRM though) and I'll start some more focused training and see how I progress. 0 -
Absolutely not. You barely ran a sub 2 hour half, you do realize that a sub 3 hour marathon is 2 x sub 1:30 halfs?? That would be 6:52 per mile. 6:52 per mile in a 5k is 21:15... You run a 23:xx 5k currently roughly 7:30..HUGE dream. How many 6:52 miles in a row can you run? I'd venture to say you could maintain that pace for 2 miles... And that's being generous.But dreams are okay.
And likely a 3:30full is out of the question as well.. I can currently run a sub 3:30 & these are my PRs
5k- 19:19 (6:10 per mile)
10k- 40:45 (6:30 per mile)
1/2- 1:33 (7:05 per mile)
I wouldn't even consider being able to run a sub 3 hour full until I can run a sub 1:27 half.. Even then, it's a very lofty goal.0 -
The thing is, none of us can work out what the OP can or can't do based on our own experience because everyone has different levels of natural ability, dedication, time etc. I've never done a race without having trained for it (as he just has), so I can't start guessing his potential based on my race time conversions. The fact that he has done very little running yet means he's got a very scanty base to build on, but it also means he could make massive improvements in the first few months of regular training, because most people do when they first start before the progress starts to level out. A 1:54 half is obviously nowhere near 3 hour marathon level, but as a first half off inadequate training, it's not exceptional, but it's probably nowhere near what the OP is capable of either. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle.0
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Absolutely not. You barely ran a sub 2 hour half, you do realize that a sub 3 hour marathon is 2 x sub 1:30 halfs?? That would be 6:52 per mile. 6:52 per mile in a 5k is 21:15... You run a 23:xx 5k currently roughly 7:30..HUGE dream. How many 6:52 miles in a row can you run? I'd venture to say you could maintain that pace for 2 miles... And that's being generous.But dreams are okay.
And likely a 3:30full is out of the question as well.. I can currently run a sub 3:30 & these are my PRs
5k- 19:19 (6:10 per mile)
10k- 40:45 (6:30 per mile)
1/2- 1:33 (7:05 per mile)
I wouldn't even consider being able to run a sub 3 hour full until I can run a sub 1:27 half.. Even then, it's a very lofty goal.
Yes I can do the maths Victoria, that's actually one thing I am pretty damn good at (except for converting mile/min to km/min).
I like lofty goals and unlike many I'm not discouraged when/if I fall short of a lofty goal as I acknowledge for what it is.
This month I'll probably average 25miles a week and I'll increase as things go on.
Am I dreaming to do it in about 12 months, 99% certainty, but what's life without dreams and targets
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My last half was a 1:54 and that was with very sucky weather. (80 degrees, 80+% humidity) Still I'm hoping to hit anything sub 4 this first marathon. 3:30 is dreaming in my book. I can do 15 - 20 miles at a 8:30 pace but I really doubt that I'll hit that for 20+. So there you have it. 9:09 pace and I'll make it in 4 hours. I have no clue yet what that last 10k is going to feel like. That's the part I'm unsure of.
My guess is 3:50 - 4:00.0 -
This month I'll probably average 25miles a week and I'll increase as things go on.
Am I dreaming to do it in about 12 months, 99% certainty, but what's life without dreams and targets
Just be cautious in your mileage build up and don't tailor your training paces to your "dream goal", but to where your fitness currently resides. Nothing will have you sidelined faster than doing workouts faster that you are capable of or running more mileage than your body is ready for.0 -
My HM PR is 1:52:03 and right now I am questioning whether I can run a sub 4 hr marathon. And I already have one in the books. I admire your ambition, but yeah, I do think it's a bit unrealistic. Increases in speed are not usually liner either. I have found that it takes a lot less time to go from an 11 minute mile to a 9 minute mile than it does to go from a 9 minute mile to a 7 minute mile for most races of any notable distance.0
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Just be cautious in your mileage build up and don't tailor your training paces to your "dream goal", but to where your fitness currently resides. Nothing will have you sidelined faster than doing workouts faster that you are capable of or running more mileage than your body is ready for.
Totally agree with you Carson I stuck on 30-35kms a week for nearly 3 months before this current increase.
I honestly just love getting out for time on my feet, so I doubt I'm even going to look at a proper training plan for several months yet.(Not that I've come across a 10-11 month plan) I'll just continue on my current routine with some increases in the distances. Especially getting through summer, which isn't that far away for me.0 -
Just be cautious in your mileage build up and don't tailor your training paces to your "dream goal", but to where your fitness currently resides. Nothing will have you sidelined faster than doing workouts faster that you are capable of or running more mileage than your body is ready for.
Totally agree with you Carson I stuck on 30-35kms a week for nearly 3 months before this current increase.
I honestly just love getting out for time on my feet, so I doubt I'm even going to look at a proper training plan for several months yet.(Not that I've come across a 10-11 month plan) I'll just continue on my current routine with some increases in the distances. Especially getting through summer, which isn't that far away for me.
In this base building phase, the only workouts you really need to add are some striders once a week, 8 to 10 of 20 seconds or 100 meters and a weekly run with a tempo section of 20 to 30 minutes at your LT pace. Other than that, just easy running is where you need to be.0 -
Just be cautious in your mileage build up and don't tailor your training paces to your "dream goal", but to where your fitness currently resides. Nothing will have you sidelined faster than doing workouts faster that you are capable of or running more mileage than your body is ready for.
Totally agree with you Carson I stuck on 30-35kms a week for nearly 3 months before this current increase.
I honestly just love getting out for time on my feet, so I doubt I'm even going to look at a proper training plan for several months yet.(Not that I've come across a 10-11 month plan) I'll just continue on my current routine with some increases in the distances. Especially getting through summer, which isn't that far away for me.
In this base building phase, the only workouts you really need to add are some striders once a week, 8 to 10 of 20 seconds or 100 meters and a weekly run with a tempo section of 20 to 30 minutes at your LT pace. Other than that, just easy running is where you need to be.
Thanks for the advice I'll try and stick to it. 0 -
I LOVE PEOPLE that set their own STANDARDS HIGH!
GOOD FOR YOU!
GO GET THEM!
PROVE THEM WRONG
KICK SOME BUTT0 -
Here's a good test. Go and run as many miles as you can at 6:51/mile. If you can make it 26.2 miles, you can do a sub-3 hour marathon.0
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Here's a good test. Go and run as many miles as you can at 6:51/mile. If you can make it 26.2 miles, you can do a sub-3 hour marathon.
:drinker:0 -
Here's a good test. Go and run as many miles as you can at 6:51/mile. If you can make it 26.2 miles, you can do a sub-3 hour marathon.
Thanks Capt. Obvious.0 -
Here's a good test. Go and run as many miles as you can at 6:51/mile. If you can make it 26.2 miles, you can do a sub-3 hour marathon.
Thanks Capt. Obvious.
I like to keep it simple like that.0 -
Arguably if you could do 26.2 miles of 6:51 by yourself on a training run you could do a real race a fair bit faster.0
