Marathon Race Pace
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I am curious how well the McMillan numbers actually play out as race predictors. I realize that the closer to your goal-distance you use as input the better it will be though. I have been working on my speed lately and just pulled off a 5k in 18:17 (5:54/mi), and McMillan now says I should be able to run a 2:58 marathon. Even if that is off by 10 minutes, that is good enough to BQ (3:10 is my BQ time). I would LOVE to be able to run a sub-3, but my real goal is to get to Boston at some point. Looks like I have the leg speed to do it, but running 6:47 pace for 26 miles doesn't sound like something I can do (which is the pace McMillan says I should be capable of).
McMillan is pretty spot on when I put in my HM time and work down; it's almost 100% accurate to my mile time, 5k time, etc. But it says I should be able to do a 3:58 marathon, which would be great, but I know I can't get that kind of time yet. I usually add 20 mins to the McMillan time, mostly because I struggle mentally more than physically in the last half of a full. And running 40-42 mpw in my peak weeks probably isn't the best prep for the 26.2 distance anyhow (summer goals: bigger weekly mileage!).0 -
I thought training for the race was a given. I was just wondering if it can be believed. In fact I am NOT training for shorter races right now. That 18:17 5k came in the middle of a build for a full Ironman. I certainly won't be running a <3hr marathon 7 weeks from now at that Ironman (something about 2.4mi in the water and 112 miles on the bike before trying to run a marathon is going to slow me down a bit).
In my own personal experience, and other's I have seen, it has been pretty close. The closer the distances are, the more accurate it is, of course.
Ha! Maybe slow you down just a little
And given you are training for an IM, my gut feeling is you can't get the running base to support the marathon pace McMillan calculates. With more dedicated training for a marathon with 60-70 mpw, you may very well find you can hit that target. 0 -
Right - at the moment I am only running in the 40-ish mpw range because of the rest of the training. I wasn't thinking of building for a fall marathon this year but my mind may change later.0
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This is all very interesting. Loving this discussion!0
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Mcmillan has been close for me. Right on pretty much for my first (3:33) and 3 min fast for the next two (3:09- got 3:12, 3:02- got 3:05) but both of those races has asterisks ...the 3:12 was insane hilly and the 3:05 was freezing head wind in Boston a few weeks back. So I feel they are very accurate if you put in equal training.0
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My McMillan predictions, based off my 5K PR, are all within 2:00 of my actual PRs. This was true for every race up to and including the HM for a long time, but it took me 2 years, 3 marathons and over 5000 miles to bring the marathon time within the range.0
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My McMillan times up to HM were pretty accurate 2 years ago predicting a 1:33 while I ran a 1:35. Unfortunately, for the marathon 8 months later it predicted a 3:15 and I was 17 min slower despite many months above 300 miles. My problem I think was that even though I had a lot of miles I was running mostly too hard and my legs had been feeling sluggish for months before the marathon. My lesson learned for this time around.0
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CarsonRuns wrote: »My McMillan predictions, based off my 5K PR, are all within 2:00 of my actual PRs. This was true for every race up to and including the HM for a long time, but it took me 2 years, 3 marathons and over 5000 miles to bring the marathon time within the range.
Yep. Based off my 5 K, my 5 miles (I've never run a 10K) and HM are spot on the money. But I am also in the same boat as many with a slower marathon. I think the McMillan calculator is based off of what you should be physically capable of doing, but we all know that the marathon is much more than that. There is a bigger mental component (not just mental fortitude, but strategy as well) to the marathon than any other distance. I think you need to get a couple of marathons under your belt to realistically achieve the predicted pace.
Each marathon is a learning experience. I ran my second marathon in January and I came in about 15 minutes slower than my predictor pace (but right on target for my goal). Could I have achieved the goal pace? I doubt it. I did feel like I maybe physically had it in me, but this was my first attempt at "racing" a marathon and I was, for the first time, putting into practice all of the things I had learned through reading and experienced advice while preparing for this race. For me, it was more important to get a feel for what it was like to run a well planned race and understand where I will need to work to make improvements for the next race. I think I will eventually get to my predicted pace, but it may take one or 2 more attempts.
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