MFP's 5 week prediction
cchild2
Posts: 47 Member
When you complete your daily food/exercise log, does anyone pay attention to the... "If every day were like today... You'd weigh xxx.x lbs in 5 weeks"
I started plotting this prediction vs my actual weight to see how accurate it is. Won't know for at least 4 weeks.
Curious if anyone has done this already?
I started plotting this prediction vs my actual weight to see how accurate it is. Won't know for at least 4 weeks.
Curious if anyone has done this already?
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Haha, I laugh at it usually, right along with MFP's very conservative estimate of how many calories I should be eating, as if I followed MFP's guidelines on what to eat to lose 1lb, I would lose 2 or more in the same period, and that's including adding back all exercise calories.
Like most things, I would just treat it as a guideline or starting point if you need one. I needed one in the beginning, but now I have all my own data to work with, and one of the most important numbers I've been able to calculate is how many calories per lb of bodyweight I need just to maintain my weight each day. That multiplier will be different for everyone, as it depends on your usual activity level and probably general build, but it's a great number to have if you can figure it out.
Bottom line though - plotting your own data is a great way to go, and would recommend it to most. You learn an awful lot about yourself, and no longer have to suffer wildly differing online calculators, lol
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iLose/CC;iloseityes wrote: »Haha, I laugh at it usually, right along with MFP's very conservative estimate of how many calories I should be eating, as if I followed MFP's guidelines on what to eat to lose 1lb, I would lose 2 or more in the same period, and that's including adding back all exercise calories.
Like most things, I would just treat it as a guideline or starting point if you need one. I needed one in the beginning, but now I have all my own data to work with, and one of the most important numbers I've been able to calculate is how many calories per lb of bodyweight I need just to maintain my weight each day. That multiplier will be different for everyone, as it depends on your usual activity level and probably general build, but it's a great number to have if you can figure it out.
Bottom line though - plotting your own data is a great way to go, and would recommend it to most. You learn an awful lot about yourself, and no longer have to suffer wildly differing online calculators, lol
I'm a "data" guy and absolutely agree that "...plotting your own data is a great way to go".
With the data, and frequent datapoints, one can much more accurately narrow down "cause and effect" of things like changes in macro ratios, impact of exercise on weight loss, and blood sugar or ketone levels.
Without it, it's just a guess.
I understand though, that for many, it's just not something that appeals to them or that they consider worth the effort and that's fine too, for them.
It's important though (IMO) that the data geeks understand that there are very few changes one makes that have an immediate, short term impact - almost all of them take time and probably won't be visible (or measurable) the next day or even the next week.
It's also important to understand that it's completely "normal" for one's weight to fluctuate + or - 2#/day for seemingly no reason at all - not to mention the hormonal changes that effect most women monthly.
All of these things considered, is the reason I'm not in the "weigh yourself once a month" camp. It's just too likely that the one day you weigh yourself happens to be an outliar (either "up" or "down") and radically different than the average of the previous 30 days.
The "number" itself is correct (assuming no scale errors) but doesn't accurately represent what is really going on.
OTOH, some argue that by seeing the scale number everyday it causes them to obsess or draw conclusions that are simply not valid ("I had a glass of wine last night and gained 3 pounds - wine must be bad for me"). For those prone to this type of reaction I agree that they are probably better off not tracking daily.
The "ideal" solution, IMO, is to measure daily and record the results but NOT "obsess" over daily fluctuations but rather focus on multi-week or monthly "averages" - but some simply can't do that.
With regard to the MFP "...if you....you would..." prediction - it's completely useless and best just ignored.
It's only "accurate" to the degree that saying "if you lose 1 pound a day you will have lost 10 pounds in 10 days". Factually correct but totally irrelevant.
I'm not sure exactly how MFP "calculates" the number but I'm guessing that it's nothing more than a simple formula (like the 1#/day example above) based on the 3500kcal/# CICO dogma and one's deviation from estimated TDEE values (which are themselves "guesstimates" at BEST).
They "might" factor in one's individual historical data with a simple algorithm but I doubt it.
And it "might", if one were to track, record, and plot the "predicted" vs "actual" numbers over time as CC is doing, turn out to be reasonably "accurate" in that one instance but I'd consider that more along the lines of "even a blind squirrel...." than statistically sound validation of their "predictions".
It would actually be fairly easy for them to validate since they have in their database all the numbers they need (prediction and actual) IF the member has accurately recorded daily weight numbers. It would be interesting to see the results of such an analysis of the data with n=the entire member base.
Again just a "guess" on my part but if I were a betting man, my money would be on a low degree of correlation and I doubt we'll see any such validation any time soon.
So while it will be interesting to see the results of CC's analysis for his individual numbers, I fear it will prove little more than "GIGO - garbage in, garbage out" (not his "fault" or implying that "his" numbers are "garbage" but rather that MFP's prediction numbers ARE).
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If it was accurate for me, I'd have been at my goal weight about three years ago...
As it stands, I've only been able to find the point at which I just don't gain, and unfortunately, I've found that I could have as much as a 1000 calorie swing and not lose (though, thanks to LCHF, not gain, either) for some reason I've still yet to fully figure out or figure out how to deal with.
(Yes, the "calories are all the matters" brigade can kiss my *kitten*.)0 -
DW;Dragonwolf wrote: »If it was accurate for me, I'd have been at my goal weight about three years ago...
As it stands, I've only been able to find the point at which I just don't gain, and unfortunately, I've found that I could have as much as a 1000 calorie swing and not lose (though, thanks to LCHF, not gain, either) for some reason I've still yet to fully figure out or figure out how to deal with.
(Yes, the "calories are all the matters" brigade can kiss my *kitten*.)
Like you, I was fine up until the "last 15" but lately have seemed to hit a wall.
Despite constant threats of "...if you continue to eat at this deficit you'll DIE by noon tomorrow..." when consuming considerably less than the MFP "mandated" calories because I simply wasn't "hungry" and totally satiated on LCHF, those 15 refused to play by the "rules".
So too would a fairly major uptick in cal intake fail to result in the "certain" weight gains CICO koolaid lemmings insist would be the inevitable response.
Tried the "egg fast" thing and as you probably remember it had essentially "0" effect - for ME. (I've since stumbled on a possible explanation for "why" which you'll see further down).
In my case at least (and apparently I'm in good company since something like 90-95% of those that buy into the CICO dogma fail after a year) - it simply doesn't work and the premise upon which they base their simplistic views isn't valid (for lots of reasons).
Over the years, initially on a CICO based "just cut cals and exercise" diet I've discussed it with my Cardio who is very open minded and actually will "listen" and consider alternative points of view that challenge the conventional wisdom.
He has, however, repeatedly raised the concept of one's body "set point" - basically some magical number of pounds that your body is just "happiest at" and strives to maintain.
As far as I can tell it's more his personal "belief" than anything backed by actual science and I think it "might" have as much to do with motivating his patient base, supporting their efforts, and validating their successes, than the "science".
While I don't "buy" the "set point" idea (and have seen no research that would support the concept), I DO believe that "something" in the combination of all the various metabolic variables that a person is currently at, DOES "control" what appears to be a "set point".
Our (mine, probably yours, and any number of those who hit the proverbial "wall" at the last 10-15) challenge is to pin down exactly which "variable" it is that we need to change in order to change that "point".
Dave Asprey (the bulletproof guy) who is a strong LCHF advocate, argues that not only do gut biomes play a major role but so too "might" things like a one day, intentional (and specific), "cheat" actually be a "good thing" and trigger a modification of the status quo.
Asprey's premise is based on what he calls "biohacking" and must be taken in context - he's NOT giving "permission" to "cheat" on a consistent, OR "willy-nilly" basis, nor is he endorsing "carb reloads" but rather a very specific, targeted, very short term, intentional, reduction of ketone bodies below typical FA levels (0.5-0.8).
One of his "theories" involves protein levels and the impact that "any" conversion of protein to energy can have on "some" individuals when it comes to adipose fat burning regulation. He is very much an advocate of "individualization" when it comes to what works for one person vs another (a belief which with I totally agree).
He's a gazillionaire (long before becoming an LCHF advocate, author, and podcaster) and has conducted more extensive (and expensive) N=1 "experiments" than anyone else I'm aware of - spending in excess of $300k of his own money to "test" his "hypothesises".
If you haven't already, you might want to take a look at his book (or at least the free "preview"):
tinyurl.com/mjy5wda
Some very interesting stuff, and certainly "food for thought"
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Dragonwolf wrote: »If it was accurate for me, I'd have been at my goal weight about three years ago...
As it stands, I've only been able to find the point at which I just don't gain, and unfortunately, I've found that I could have as much as a 1000 calorie swing and not lose (though, thanks to LCHF, not gain, either) for some reason I've still yet to fully figure out or figure out how to deal with.
(Yes, the "calories are all the matters" brigade can kiss my *kitten*.)
LOL. Agreed.0 -
Egads, I wish I was stuck on the last 10-15lbs. I've still got about 70lbs before I reach even my more conservative goal.
That's the most frustrating part about my situation, and what drove me to LCHF -- it's not like I'm trying to lose the "vanity pounds" or whatever, but weight that should come off even without having an absolutely 100% perfect diet (and not gain when I'm not weighing out every single morsel that crosses my lips, and getting weekly BodPod or metabolism measurements or somesuch). 0 -
DW;Dragonwolf wrote: »Egads, I wish I was stuck on the last 10-15lbs. I've still got about 70lbs before I reach even my more conservative goal. That's the most frustrating part about my situation, and what drove me to LCHF -- it's not like I'm trying to lose the "vanity pounds" or whatever, but weight that should come off even without having an absolutely 100% perfect diet (and not gain when I'm not weighing out every single morsel that crosses my lips, and getting weekly BodPod or metabolism measurements or somesuch).
Patiences, Grasshopper <G>
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deansdad101 wrote: »
DW;Dragonwolf wrote: »Egads, I wish I was stuck on the last 10-15lbs. I've still got about 70lbs before I reach even my more conservative goal. That's the most frustrating part about my situation, and what drove me to LCHF -- it's not like I'm trying to lose the "vanity pounds" or whatever, but weight that should come off even without having an absolutely 100% perfect diet (and not gain when I'm not weighing out every single morsel that crosses my lips, and getting weekly BodPod or metabolism measurements or somesuch).
Patiences, Grasshopper <G>
There's only so much patience to be had when one has spent 8 years trying to lose weight and has all of 30lbs to show for it, unfortunately.0 -
I wish I only had 15 or even 30 to loose too. Sigh. Not dropping any more pounds but I am getting smaller measuring. Seems weird. Redistributing the fat I guess. I think I need to set my calorie goal up. MFP gets ugly when you go over.0
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shadesofidaho wrote: »I wish I only had 15 or even 30 to loose too. Sigh. Not dropping any more pounds but I am getting smaller measuring. Seems weird. Redistributing the fat I guess. I think I need to set my calorie goal up. MFP gets ugly when you go over.
I did this for the first 6 weeks after getting carbs <50 g daily and the scales did not drop even one pound.
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You know how they say you are not supposed to be able to pinch more than in inch. Well sadly it was like 4 inches on the front of my stomach. It has gone way down. I am trying for 25 carbs or under per day. I added more calories to my foods and now I feel satisfied. I was still hungry or feeling needy after dinner of fish and shrimp.
I just checked and the last few days have been 9 8 12 and then it went to 21 and 19 carbs a day so some thing has to give pretty soon. I know I am a slow one to lose weight because I have low thyroid and am medicated for it but you never get back to what you were before it went low.
It is encouraging to know others go through this too.0 -
I was ticked because I was seriously getting into LCHF and it was not 'working' but people kept saying something about me losing weight so I looked in the mirror. Had effectively lost my double chin for a l.5 chin and even my fingers looked more slender. My son of all people said my legs looked smaller. Per my acupuncture therapist I gained muscle mass too but I had little to start with.0
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I have been working hard in the yard,until it started raining, tearing down and re-building fence. A lot of post driving, squats working down low and constantly walking back to the shop for another tool and in the cold 30s to 40s. So maybe I am building muscle too. Tomorrow I hope to be able to use the post hole digger if the rains stop. I do not mind being cold but I hate being wet. I feel thinner I just do not see it on the scale. tha is a little frustrating but I am not giving up. I MUST loose this weight and be able to keep it off with a new way of eating for me.
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The MFP predictions have been consistently wrong me. Most times I lose more than they predict and over several months time it makes a huge difference in the 2 graphs. I posted it on my mfp blog a while back. I will post an update when I have time.
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Never mind re plotting it would not make sense because I updated my macros and increased my deficit without updating the prediction numbers. So I only have the initial 3 months of data to work with and it was posted already.
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http://www.myfitnesspal.com/blog/middleagedmeh
the black line is the mfp prediction.
I stopped following it in October.0 -
Mid;middleagedmeh wrote: »http://www.myfitnesspal.com/blog/middleagedmeh
the black line is the mfp prediction.
I stopped following it in October.
Point, set, match <bg>
Thanks for the work and for sharing.
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Dragonwolf wrote: »If it was accurate for me, I'd have been at my goal weight about three years ago...
As it stands, I've only been able to find the point at which I just don't gain, and unfortunately, I've found that I could have as much as a 1000 calorie swing and not lose (though, thanks to LCHF, not gain, either) for some reason I've still yet to fully figure out or figure out how to deal with.
(Yes, the "calories are all the matters" brigade can kiss my *kitten*.)
LOL DW, Love it if calories were all that counted I'd have been a twig skinny stick most of my life.
Interestingly since working with my Naturopathic Doctor on several issues (PCOS and Psoriatic Arthritis) and adding my supplements and removing certain foods from my diet that create inflammation, my "Math" currently works. ~knocking on wood~
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Well I just proved some thing to myself about how MFP is a bit off on the adding back calories burned. It said if I would work and eat like I did today I will have lost almost 30 more pounds in 5 weeks. I do not add back the calories I burn in Exercise. I am using it more to keep track of my exertion level. I eat what I want. I am done for the day but I will eat my whipping cream desert.
I worked really hard today fencing. The funniest part is I walked 2 miles, on my step meter, and never left the yard of 1/2 acre. My hubby and I are laughing over this but the other day I walked 1.5 miles and NEVER left the house except to go out the back door to the patio a couple of times.
I really can not understand the reasoning behind eating back the calories you burn off unless you are trying to gain weight.0 -
I cringe when it pops up when I complete my diary. Lol.0
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It mostly disappoints me because at first I believed it. Sigh. So naive.0
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shadesofidaho wrote: »Well I just proved some thing to myself about how MFP is a bit off on the adding back calories burned. It said if I would work and eat like I did today I will have lost almost 30 more pounds in 5 weeks. I do not add back the calories I burn in Exercise. I am using it more to keep track of my exertion level. I eat what I want. I am done for the day but I will eat my whipping cream desert.
I worked really hard today fencing. The funniest part is I walked 2 miles, on my step meter, and never left the yard of 1/2 acre. My hubby and I are laughing over this but the other day I walked 1.5 miles and NEVER left the house except to go out the back door to the patio a couple of times.
I really can not understand the reasoning behind eating back the calories you burn off unless you are trying to gain weight.
The idea behind "eating back" calories is that the calculation MFP uses is TDEE minus 250/500/750/1000 calories. The theory is that if you exercise, you increase your TDEE (because the exercises aren't accounted for when you set your activity level, otherwise you're "double dipping" by accounting for it in the activity level and the log), so in order to maintain the deficit to lose .5/1/1.5/2lb per week, you have to consume the calories you burned off exercising.
What I hate is the advice that stems from it - "go for a 2 mile run to earn extra calories." :wtf: Uh...no...if I did that, I'd be starving even more than I was when I was originally on MFP's macro spread (seriously, I had issues staying "only" at 2000 calories and wanted to gnaw my arm off at the end of every day).0 -
I've issues under eating so the fact MFP adds back your exercise calories as you earn them is an issue for me. I went to a 3rd party calculator to figure out my TDEE including my exercise numbers, which is about 2300 calories, I then deducted 500 calories per day which gives me my target calories of 1800 per day. I then aim for somewhere between 1300 to 1800 calories a day, and I disregard anything else MFP says.
In my opinion MFP is a tool and like all tools there isn't just one way to use it.0 -
DD-
"While I don't "buy" the "set point" idea (and have seen no research that would support the concept), I DO believe that "something" in the combination of all the various metabolic variables that a person is currently at, DOES "control" what appears to be a "set point"."
Purely anecdotal, but i have hit stalls at weight levels where I held that weight for a significant time in the past, and I am at one now. I can't decide if it's physical, or mental. Or perhaps both. Maybe it's self-fulfilling. But I have just noticed it several times on my 80+ pound weightloss. Could it be the brain has pathways/neurons that it "remembers" from the years I spent at whatever weight, and is hesitant to create or learn new ones? But persistence does win in the end.
Well i am not brain researcher. Just a thought
jen0 -
Jen;DD-
Purely anecdotal, but i have hit stalls at weight levels where I held that weight for a significant time in the past, and I am at one now. I can't decide if it's physical, or mental. Or perhaps both. Maybe it's self-fulfilling. But I have just noticed it several times on my 80+ pound weightloss. Could it be the brain has pathways/neurons that it "remembers" from the years I spent at whatever weight, and is hesitant to create or learn new ones? But persistence does win in the end.
Well i am not brain researcher. Just a thought
jen
I "think" (and it's totally a WAG - based on nothing more than my complete lack of knowledge and inability to find relevant research documenting one "side" or the other) - that "stalls" and the "set point" concept are two totally different things.
At the same time though, I try to stay open to the idea that there very well "could be" a link and maybe it manifests itself in something like the body's "natural" reaction (the stall) to "resetting" its setpoint.
You are not alone in seeing anecdotal results similar to those you've experienced.
Like you, and at least partly because I'm a "data wacko", I've encountered "stalls" fairly regularly over the 10 months I've been consciously paying attention.
I'm a "true believer" when it comes to collecting and maintaining frequent (daily) data points but understand why, for some, it may not be the best course (different discussion but boils down to whether or not one can separate "collecting" and "obsessing" over the short term data which is almost always non-representative).
Especially in the beginning, many of the times what I was seeing wouldn't even qualify as a true "stall" - simply because it was of very limited duration (a week or two, not a month), and for someone who didn't micro analyze the data, or recorded (for instance) weight on a weekly, rather than daily, basis they might not ever even have noticed.
The one thing that did remain consistent though was that while "stalled", while a further reduction in cals in had no effect on "breaking it" (resuming weight loss) - neither did an increase (result in a gain). That realization lends support to the "resetting the setpoint" idea but was more likely simply the result of not allowing enough time to pass before drawing any conclusions.
The closer I get to my goal though, the longer the "plateaus" seem to linger. It's the "last 10 or 15#" syndrome and the forums are replete with anecdotal reports of it to the point of it having attained "everybody knows", status.
My (and probably your) problem is, while one part of me says "just accept it, it just IS" - another part says, ".....BUT I want/need to know WHY!!!"
That I don't, and can't find a "scientific" rationale for the "why", makes me crazy ("crazier? <G>) - so the "stall" & "resetting the setpoint" theory fits nicely with my "...takes time for the body to adjust..." beliefs.
Not going to lose a whole bunch of sleep over it (although as much as I tell myself that's the "smart" thing to do - that curiosity cat keeps rearing its ugly head).
There are, however, many more important things in life to concern oneself with and a whole bunch of people who would gladly swap their particular "issues" for mine so it's important to keep things in perspective.
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I feel like I am in a stall right now even though I am working so hard in the yard. I should stay away from the scale for a week at a time because my weight is bouncing from 212 to 214 and back. GGGRRRR. I am not changing it every day. I will make a next weight loss report when I hit 211. I imagine some of my stall could be muscle building. That digging bar gets pretty heavy. I am thrilled I am NOT seeing my weight continue to climb like it was doing even after I started back on my thyroid medication. I chose my 1400 calories set point out of the blue. Mostly because I have been living and gaining on 1200 or less for years. Adding in the high fat I need to get in I just picked 1400 because it gave me more leeway and I just HATE seeing things turn red.
Today I felt pretty good after my food intake yesterday. I think I will just repeat it.0 -
shadesofidaho wrote: »I feel like I am in a stall right now even though I am working so hard in the yard. I should stay away from the scale for a week at a time because my weight is bouncing from 212 to 214 and back. GGGRRRR. I am not changing it every day. I will make a next weight loss report when I hit 211. I imagine some of my stall could be muscle building. That digging bar gets pretty heavy. I am thrilled I am NOT seeing my weight continue to climb like it was doing even after I started back on my thyroid medication. I chose my 1400 calories set point out of the blue. Mostly because I have been living and gaining on 1200 or less for years. Adding in the high fat I need to get in I just picked 1400 because it gave me more leeway and I just HATE seeing things turn red.
Today I felt pretty good after my food intake yesterday. I think I will just repeat it.
SOI;
212 to 214 and back isn't a "bounce" - it's totally normal. (+ or - 2#'s, some say 4#'s).
Not to take this thread too far OT, your's is a good example of why I believe daily tracking is a good idea - as long as you (or anyone) can think of it as just "data collection" and realize that one day to the next comparisons are basically totally useless. Some can do it, for some it's motivational, for others it's counter-productive - just have to find what works for you.
For it to be meaningful though, it helps to keep track some of those "other things" that might be having an impact on longer term results.
I'm not a big believer in the "muscle building" theories that are a mainstay of body builders mantra ("muscle weighs more than fat...."<g>). That's NOT to say it isn't a factor (long term) or that it isn't beneficial for overall wellness - just that it's unlikely you'll see the effects (weight wise), short term, especially when still in the initial stages of adopting LC.
OTOH, thyroid meds (depending on the specific med), do have a documented impact on weight gain (all else being equal) - however, even in that case, it's NOT a certainty, (for everyone), nor is it inevitable and non-reversible.
My bride, who has been on meds for Hasimodo for years, gained consistently and predictably (every increase in dose, spiked the weight gain). We "bought in" to the "inevitability" common wisdom.
Since going LCHF she's hit (and exceeded) her goal (35+ lbs) and had the med dose cut in half - twice.
Chicken or the egg? Who knows?
Did the reduction in the dose lead to the weight loss or the diet lead to reduced need?
Who cares? <VBG>
(But, based on her consistent and daily "tracking" - it certainly appears that it was the diet since the weight loss preceded the dose cut).
Like your circumstances though, whenever more than one "change" occurs at the same time, it's difficult to isolate the cause and - "correlation does not = causation" <G>
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It can all be a mystery for sure. I worked hard for 5 more hours today and should get a bonus for lugging around 5 extra pounds of ca-leechy mud on my boots the whole time. I have kind of skipped lunch and trying the Bullet proof coffee with coconut oil and cream. I do not have the mct. Trip to town is 45 miles and not sure I could find it there. Online is my guess.
I do feel stronger than when I started on this fencing project. More stamina. I am not sure on the muscle thing either. The funiest thing is my strongest arm is one inch smaller than the other one. the tape measure is my friend and I might be as heavy but I am smaller all over by as much as 3 inches in some places=waist, hips.
I feel better knowing that 2 to 4 pound is just expected and I did not blow it some where. I am not going to give up on this. I feel it is my last chance to loose weight.0 -
SOI;shadesofidaho wrote: »It can all be a mystery for sure. I worked hard for 5 more hours today and should get a bonus for lugging around 5 extra pounds of ca-leechy mud on my boots the whole time. I have kind of skipped lunch and trying the Bullet proof coffee with coconut oil and cream. I do not have the mct. Trip to town is 45 miles and not sure I could find it there. Online is my guess.
I do feel stronger than when I started on this fencing project. More stamina. I am not sure on the muscle thing either. The funiest thing is my strongest arm is one inch smaller than the other one. the tape measure is my friend and I might be as heavy but I am smaller all over by as much as 3 inches in some places=waist, hips.
I feel better knowing that 2 to 4 pound is just expected and I did not blow it some where. I am not going to give up on this. I feel it is my last chance to loose weight.
Took a quick look at your diary and from what I can see, it sure looks like you are not only doing everything "right" but getting excellent results as well.
If your weight loss slider is in the same timeframe as your food diary it's showing 18# in a little over a month... 4+ lbs/week average. Even taking into account the typical, initial, "water weight" loss, results like that are a source of pride, not something to be stressed over.
LCHF is NOT a lose 200#'s in two weeks (and then gain it all back), program. Think of the weight loss part of it more as a "nice" side effect than as the primary reason for adopting the lifestyle. Slow and steady wins the race.
Your macros look great and more importantly your adherence to your target numbers is among the best I've seen in quite a while. Depending on how close to "average" you are, it's likely that you are either already, or will be soon, "in" NK (Nutritional Ketosis) for much of your day, and well on the way to being Fat Adapted.
Without actually measuring blood ketone levels, it's not possible to know for "sure" (since the urine "styx" are, for the most part, too unreliable to show much, past the very beginning stages which you are well past). But, if had to put money on it, I'd bet you are close, if not well adapted.
As far as the exercise (cal "burning") part goes my suggestions would be:
1) Try (at least for a while), just setting it aside (the "stressing" about it, not the work/exercise itself). Especially in the early stages, there is compelling "evidence" that the impact that exercise (aerobic primarily but resistance as well to a lesser degree) has on weight loss is negligible at best and non-existent for most.
You are doing a great job of basically ignoring the changes that MFP makes to your "Daily Goal" numbers so as long as that continues you're fine but if it were me, I'd just stop entering the "exercise cals" altogether for the time being since it can lead to confusion when you see the higher (adjusted) numbers.
2) The one variable that you don't have a good handle on (I think) is your blood ketone body levels (B-OHB) unless you are testing. From what I can see, you "should" be in good shape but if you're not, the most likely reasons why not would be a) you need more time (some require more than a month to get there), or b) something is "blocking" you from bringing those numbers up (excessive protein or carb levels will do it as will specific foods or a number of other "triggers"). Carbs and protein don't jump out as the reason but until you know, for sure that it's even an "issue", it makes little sense to go on a hunt for something that might not even exist.
I'd just keep on keeping on, doing what you are doing for at least a few more weeks, especially with the holidays. Give it some time, relax, and take another look at your (long term) results again in a month or so. If at the end of 2 months (since you got serious about LCHF) you're seeing results (weight wise) in the neighborhood of 1 - 2#'s/week average you are as close to "ideal" as you can be.
At that point, maybe a few "tweaks" (take another look at your TDEE and maybe adjust cals and macros a touch), but overall, congratulate yourself on a job well done (so far) and promise yourself you'll keep doing what you know will "work" for at least as long as it takes.
If the wait (without knowing for sure where ketone levels are is a stressor) isn't something you want to deal with, jump on over to the thread that details everything you never knew you wanted to know about testing - it's (relatively) painless, inexpensive ($25-50 or so), and not only will answer the ketone question for sure but also give you access to frequent blood sugar level numbers which can prove invaluable.
Like many things in the LCHF universe, opinions vary widely on the need for, or even the worth of, blood testing, and while I'm a firm believer in both the "need" and the "value", others disagree and that's as it should be. This thread will give you an idea of some of the views of each "side" in that debate - from there it's up to you to decide what works "best" for you.
community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/10019664/how-do-i-know-if-im-in-ketosis#latest
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Thanks deansdad,
I joined MFP back in August not doing the LCHF but the low cal low fat. I had just started back on my thyroid meds after not having them for about 7 years. The doctor also added the edema medication because I had pitting edema arms and legs. So right off within days I dropped about 7 pounds I assume would have been water weight even being on the low cal low fat diet. I maintained it to close to 1000 calories a day but I was ready to bite my right arm off I was so starved.
I also had severe psoriasis and insane joint pain. I was one miserable person. I was exhausted from my own illness and caring for my hubby for the last two years. I managed to lose 14 pounds then gained back 8 because I could not maintain the extreme low calorie. I was hungry and fainting. I think the thyroid helped me to loose some weight. some thing miraculously cleared my psoriasis and I was feeling pretty good. The joint pain was going away too. I do have X-ray diagnosed osteoarthritis. After gaining the 8 of the 14 pounds lost back I just gave up again.
So by the time I went back to the doctor Dec 3 on their scale dressed I had lost 10 pounds. I had just restarted the LCHF about Thanksgiving. So really I have only lost about 8 pounds since I started the LCHF. I guess it does not show the date I went to 212. with out my tape measure I would be insane. The tape shows me getting smaller.
I need to find out about macros and I do not even know what TDEE is. I was going on the counts from the book and now I forget the author.I have not had a chance to read all of it yet and need to re-read all of it again. I only have so much time to devote to this even as important as it is. The weather is supposed to turn on us shortly and this WILL be the end of the yard work. Then I will not be spending 4 to 5 hours out there and wearing myself out.
I will check into the testing. I would suspect I would be slower to loose or get to ketosis. Seems every thing I do takes more time. I am not disappointed in an 8 pound loss since the 3rd. I know it will take time. I am so excited to be finally loosing weight. My doctors nurse told me the weight did not com on over night and I can not expect to lose it overnight.
Last night and today I could still not deal with meat. I over did it on the broccoli as far as carbs in one meal but overall for the day I did ok. The slightly altered version of the BPC helped me to get the fat in. So much to learn but now I need to do my evening chores. And chores I did not get done while working in the yard.
Thank you so much for looking at my food diary. I have not had my whipped cream desert yet but I will later. I did post it.
chris
I forgot we are not really celebrating the holidays so no worries for me there. We are sadly antisocial. No family. Just going to be us two as it always is. A good thing really.0
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