Calculating TDEE
NovusDies
Posts: 8,940 Member
I thought since I am going through the process - again - I would explain what I am doing for anyone who wishes to do it for themselves. So that I do not miss anything I will update this thread when I am doing something.
The process started 9 days ago and the first phase ends tomorrow morning.
The first phase is unloading eating related water retention. Since we just had holidays and I tend to bloat a crazy amount I needed to drop about 15 pounds. Because I have so much I knew it would take more than the normal 4-5 days so I have given myself 10. This also works well for me because Friday is normally my numbers day.
My goal during the 10 days was to limit restaurant food and high sodium food while staying in a deficit. I ate out 2 times so it was not like I restricted it I just was smart about it.
Looks like the first phase is nearly complete since my weight was the same today as yesterday and I am nearing what I thought it should be. It may fall a bit more today but I am not holding my breath.
The reason why I need to wait is because as a man I can get a reasonably accurate TDEE in 3 weeks but not if 50 percent of the time I am losing water weight and it is a huge number. Generally speaking all weight loss calculations should be done starting at the lower end of your weight curve.
My goal for the next 3 weeks is to still keep restaurant visits to a minimum and avoid high sodium foods. I will also try to maintain the same activity level and keep my average calories pretty steady. I want to minimize food related water retention because if it does not come off fast enough it will throw off my ending number. I want to keep my activity about the same so perhaps I can establish a workable benchmark for calorie burn using steps.
While I am doing this I will keep an eye out for any sign of low energy/fatigue. If I believe I am eating too little to fuel myself I will up my calories. I do not think that is likely.
A quick note: TDEE (Total daily energy expenditure) will not match the number that MFP gives me with the deficit added back in. MFP uses a NEAT system and means for you to eat back exercise calories. I have opted not to use their numbers except as a reference point because I do not like variable daily calorie goals. They make it harder for me. For others they may find it easier.
The process started 9 days ago and the first phase ends tomorrow morning.
The first phase is unloading eating related water retention. Since we just had holidays and I tend to bloat a crazy amount I needed to drop about 15 pounds. Because I have so much I knew it would take more than the normal 4-5 days so I have given myself 10. This also works well for me because Friday is normally my numbers day.
My goal during the 10 days was to limit restaurant food and high sodium food while staying in a deficit. I ate out 2 times so it was not like I restricted it I just was smart about it.
Looks like the first phase is nearly complete since my weight was the same today as yesterday and I am nearing what I thought it should be. It may fall a bit more today but I am not holding my breath.
The reason why I need to wait is because as a man I can get a reasonably accurate TDEE in 3 weeks but not if 50 percent of the time I am losing water weight and it is a huge number. Generally speaking all weight loss calculations should be done starting at the lower end of your weight curve.
My goal for the next 3 weeks is to still keep restaurant visits to a minimum and avoid high sodium foods. I will also try to maintain the same activity level and keep my average calories pretty steady. I want to minimize food related water retention because if it does not come off fast enough it will throw off my ending number. I want to keep my activity about the same so perhaps I can establish a workable benchmark for calorie burn using steps.
While I am doing this I will keep an eye out for any sign of low energy/fatigue. If I believe I am eating too little to fuel myself I will up my calories. I do not think that is likely.
A quick note: TDEE (Total daily energy expenditure) will not match the number that MFP gives me with the deficit added back in. MFP uses a NEAT system and means for you to eat back exercise calories. I have opted not to use their numbers except as a reference point because I do not like variable daily calorie goals. They make it harder for me. For others they may find it easier.
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My spreadsheet uses the same calculator as:
https://www.sailrabbit.com/bmr/
I believe I am moderately active or close to it so my estimated TDEE is 2942.
I will try to eat an average of 2300-2400 calories per day to create around a 500 calorie deficit.
If my assessment of my activity is correct I should lose 3 pounds.2 -
About the only thing that I would do different is the use of my trending weight as opposed to scale weight.
If you couple that (trending weight) with fairly accurate food logging, you would be able to take random points where the trendline was relatively stable and calculate tdee based on that.0 -
About the only thing that I would do different is the use of my trending weight as opposed to scale weight.
If you couple that (trending weight) with fairly accurate food logging, you would be able to take random points where the trendline was relatively stable and calculate tdee based on that.
That is a good idea for anyone who uses or does a trending system. I have never done one. It would not work for me right now anyway because all of my previous data is useless and I have been anything but weight stable for 3 months. The only way I really knew the holiday bloat was gone was because I kept recording my weight and my calories in my spreadsheet to maintain the habit and I saw that I was close to the lowest post-surgery weight.
Btw, @PAV8888 I am glad you are here.
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Very occasionally, though
Trying to cut down some on MFP time due to family/work over the next few months.
Actually wrote two posts today that I deleted without posting to avoid getting in a back and forth discussion!!!!
Sorry you've been in turmoil since (tbh probably starting with a bit before as you lost extra) the surgery.
Hopefully you'll be fully back in your groove soon!0 -
Very occasionally, though
Trying to cut down some on MFP time due to family/work over the next few months.
Actually wrote two posts today that I deleted without posting to avoid getting in a back and forth discussion!!!!
Sorry you've been in turmoil since (tbh probably starting with a bit before as you lost extra) the surgery.
Hopefully you'll be fully back in your groove soon!
I am feeling kind of groovy today. My scale weight matches my starting weight less deficit losses today within .2 pounds. It is too soon for that to be ruled as anything but a fun coincidence but it reminds me of all the times it happened and kept reinforcing that it was always just CICO.2 -
Between yesterday and today I dropped another 1.2 pounds. This is why a TDEE cannot be calculated in a short amount of time. If I were to believe the early results I would be left thinking that I was creating 2450 calories worth of deficit each day for the last 4 days. I will admit my energy is a tad low but I would be seriously fatigued. lol Not to mention that would put my TDEE at around 4800 calories per day.
It is far more likely that there is still water weight involved.
This morning's weight is below anything I expected even considering I could still have edema resolving from the surgery. I do not think I am dehydrated but I am going to keep an eye on it today.
I might be curious enough to go back to version 5 of the spreadsheet and see what my weight tracks would like like at a higher activity level. The only problem there is that spreadsheet only covers the period from post op through last Friday. It includes post op maintenance, one vacation, one weekend away, Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year which means it has a lot more guesses on calories eaten than normal. I do not ever stop logging because it is my accountability system but I do have a relaxed version of what I do normally. I still weigh a good deal of my food just not all. I do not think the increased margin of error hurts me if it is in a limited window of time. This was an extended period of time but most of that time I was more concerned with healing than anything else. I will avoid looking at version 5 anymore and just be patient and wait for new results. That version was really about documenting what was happening if I ever want to remember or use it to help someone else and to stay in the habit. Version 6 is here and I need to keep pushing forward.
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Tomorrow is my numbers day. I picked Friday a long time ago because it was once Sunday. The problem with Sunday is that it my habits shift the most starting Friday and then usually return to normal on Monday. If they always shifted the same way it would not be a problem. I like to get the number I will use to crunch after the more consistent part of me week. I do not hesitate to do something out of the ordinary during the week or restrict it, it is just less likely to happen. I might hesitate today because I am trying to get a usable TDEE faster.
I say 'problem' but it is not really a problem until your overall habits change and you need to adjust your calories for some reason. Otherwise given enough time you can get usable data no matter how you do it.
I do weigh daily and I do use those numbers too but for calculating things like rate of loss I use Friday.1 -
To catch up:
On Friday (Jan 17th) I had an unexpected drop in weight. While it could have been an outlier I had been feeling kind of low on energy for 4 days. If it has been one or two days I might have chalked it up to poor sleep but 4 days plus the drop in weight was enough for me to at least guess I was not eating enough. I changed my eating from "moderate activity" which gave me about 2300 calories a day to "active activity" which gave me about 2700 calories per day.
Feeling low in energy is no good. It hinders my ability to be active and it makes me feel miserable. Misery does not burn any extra calories. My goal is always to find a balance between forward progress and feeling good right now.
On Friday (Jan 31st) I ran my first TDEE calculation.
My total loss for the 3 week period was 3.2 pounds.
My average calories for the same period was 2662
I divided 3.2 by 21 the 21 days. That gave me .152 which gives me my average loss for each day.
To convert that by to calories I multiplied it by 3500. Which gives me 532 which is my average deficit for each day.
I add 532 to 2662 and it gives me 3194. I call that 3200. Which at the time makes me think that eating ~2700 is fine. I am not sure of my goal weight but I suspect I need to lose at least 30 more pounds so I should not be trying to lose more than 1 pound per week which is a 500 calorie deficit.
However.... the whoosh continued...
On Sat (Feb 1) I hit a new low weight. Now my loss over 22 days was 4.8 pounds
Same math:
(4.8/22) * 3500 = 764
Avg Calories 2652 + Deficit 764 = 3416 - I call it 3400.
Since then I have upticked on the scale so there is no new information. I am eating about 2900 calories per day now.
I do not trust 3 weeks to be enough data. I have seen plenty of instances where the numbers were way off. I do not think I am that far off with 3400 though. I should know more over the next 3 weeks.3 -
I found something rather interesting today: I have an alternate account that I use for when I want to mess around with the numbers without completely messing up my main account's macro settings, etc. Such as today: I'm going to be 40 calories over my goal today because I needed 4g of protein to hit goal and decided to eat an egg to cover it. But I've been pretty active today, for me at any rate: while on most week days, I'm completely sedentary, today I was at home and I managed to sort some boxes, rearrange a bedroom, make soap, varnish my kitchen island, and dust the entire house, which included reaching and stretching, especially when I came back with a swiffer and dusted along the walls. And then there was 2 loads of laundry, making the bed, etc.
So I got to thinking that all that activity today might actually qualify as lightly active today instead of sedentary, and instead of trying to guesstimate my calories as exercise, i went into my alternate account to see what my calorie goal would be with my current stats at lightly active. I would gain 290 calories! Definitely cover's that extra 40 calories today, at any rate!
I know I need to get more active, and the lower in weight I get, the more its going to be needed; but its something I haven't gotten the willpower to win on yet. Between a sedentary desk job with little opportunity for exercise during the day, fighting depression, the weather, and not to mention the fact that I absolutely detest regular exercise with a passion - its been an uphill battle for me. They say to find something you enjoy doing; the problem is, what I enjoy doing isn't something I can do on a daily basis!
Though I did rearrange that back bedroom in an effort to try to get myself to use the elliptical I have back there......2 -
bmeadows380 wrote: »I found something rather interesting today: I have an alternate account that I use for when I want to mess around with the numbers without completely messing up my main account's macro settings, etc. Such as today: I'm going to be 40 calories over my goal today because I needed 4g of protein to hit goal and decided to eat an egg to cover it. But I've been pretty active today, for me at any rate: while on most week days, I'm completely sedentary, today I was at home and I managed to sort some boxes, rearrange a bedroom, make soap, varnish my kitchen island, and dust the entire house, which included reaching and stretching, especially when I came back with a swiffer and dusted along the walls. And then there was 2 loads of laundry, making the bed, etc.
So I got to thinking that all that activity today might actually qualify as lightly active today instead of sedentary, and instead of trying to guesstimate my calories as exercise, i went into my alternate account to see what my calorie goal would be with my current stats at lightly active. I would gain 290 calories! Definitely cover's that extra 40 calories today, at any rate!
I know I need to get more active, and the lower in weight I get, the more its going to be needed; but its something I haven't gotten the willpower to win on yet. Between a sedentary desk job with little opportunity for exercise during the day, fighting depression, the weather, and not to mention the fact that I absolutely detest regular exercise with a passion - its been an uphill battle for me. They say to find something you enjoy doing; the problem is, what I enjoy doing isn't something I can do on a daily basis!
Though I did rearrange that back bedroom in an effort to try to get myself to use the elliptical I have back there......
The cardio exercise I would really enjoy doing is snorkeling in the Caribbean. The cardio exercise that is accessible all weather 24 hours a day 7 days a week with no additional equipment outside of shoes, no drive time, easy enough on my knees, and no additional cost is my elliptical. I don't really like doing it but I hate my cholesterol medication more than I dislike it and I believe it is my path to being rid of the med. It is not my long term cardio solution but it gets the job done for now. I see people say that they should enjoy their exercise. Ideally that would be the case. Ideally is not always in the cards. Maybe it will be at some point but right now I have to stick to practical solutions.
Have you considered getting a fitness watch and trying your hand at getting to lightly active each day through steps? It might be another way around exercise for the moment. It does not even require that you go for walks. Once you start getting a feel for how it adds up it can just start taking some small habit changes to get it done most days.1 -
@bmeadows380
Something I’ve always enjoyed is watching TV. I started by pulling the stationary bike out of the corner of the basement, removing the stuff that was hanging on it, and putting it right in front of the TV. (Do you read on Kindle?) My first “workout” was 8 minutes. That was the most I could do.
Someone who hated eating vegetables posted about their strategy once- put as much cheese or anything else on them to make them palatable. It’s a start.
Similarly, can you envision anything you can do that counts as exercise that you can see yourself actually doing? I would have had to work my way up to an elliptical. It would have been too challenging to start with.1 -
@88olds I don't have cable, but I did set up a tv with a DVD player in that room; I thought I'd try to see if I could keep myself going while watching an episode of a favorite TV series - that should be, what 40-45 minutes? I can't read while on the machine - I've tried in times past. I'm hoping the elliptical works better for me than a treadmill; there's something about a treadmill that messes with my gate - I'll be walking along and suddenly, its like the belt slips or something. It's me, I know as this happens on every brand of treadmill I've ever tried.
I've got a pedometer to keep track of steps, but I'm horrible at it and am luck to get 3,000 steps in a day.
The county commission is raising funds to build a pool facility as there isn't even a YMCA anywhere near me; I keep my eye on that because I might actually enjoying learning to swim! I've thought about signing up for ju-jitsu that's here local, but as out of shape as I am and as big I am still am, I don't know if that would work. Plus I know that that partical martial art is more about grappling than I'm really comfortable with, though I know its considered one of the better self defense arts for women because of the closeness of the style.
I'd love to take horseback riding lessons, but am way too heavy for the local stables to even consider me.2 -
well, I did it - I managed 42 minutes on the elliptical at level 1 (I'll be sore tomorrow, I'm sure!) We had a luncheon at work today, a taco bar, and though I stayed away from the cheese and the tortillas and chips and tried to limit the sour cream and beans, I really had no idea what to estimate it as, so I just took a 720 calorie entry along with a 200 calorie taco entry and used them to estimate. By the time I got dinner finished, I was around 400 calories over limit; only counting half of that elliptical time earned back most of those calories.
I know I won't get any time in tomorrow; we'll see if I can get myself to get back on it on Thursday (though I might need to dig out my 20 minutes videos instead and work my way up to the 45 minute ones!)2 -
I am not moving that fast or hard on the elliptical. 45 minutes routinely earns me 300-330 calories on my Apple Watch. I am still crunching numbers but my best guess is that AW's exercise estimates are around 90 percent accurate. I think that is my limit on time. On days my knees are both being kind to me I alternate in some level 2 tension for 3-5 minutes a couple of times in the 45. At some point in the future I might be able to do the entire 45 at a higher tension but I am in no hurry. I will just do what I can as I can.
The nice thing too is that I get step credit for it. I get about 90-100 steps per minutes.1 -
I'll have to remember to use my step tracker next time to see what I end up with. I know that MFP's calories estimated burns for exercise are off, so I figure to only count back half and see where that goes.
Though with all the extra activity plus salty foods, I already expect to see more water weight pile on when it comes time for weekly weigh in on Thursday. Activity always does that to me.1 -
I've decided to use the walking 2.5 mph as my estimate for calorie count for now, and then only count half. I did order me a fitness tracker yesterday, but it own't be here until next weekend. It's the Letscom fitness tracker with a heart rate monitor, though I'll have to figure out how much to trust the calorie burn it gives.
Meanwhile, I dug out my pedometer and am trying to up my step count during the day, which I admit is abysmally low. My question is, though, how to translate that into calories burned. I saw a thread that estimated anything below 5,000 steps was considered sedentary, and recommended about 7,500 steps before moving into the lightly active category; another said 5,000 - 7,500 would count. I'm not sure what to believe. Right now, getting to a consistent 5,000 steps a day is going to be a goal as I'm not even getting to that point, but I'm not sure how to translate that here without moving myself out of the sedentary category.1 -
bmeadows380 wrote: »I've decided to use the walking 2.5 mph as my estimate for calorie count for now, and then only count half. I did order me a fitness tracker yesterday, but it own't be here until next weekend. It's the Letscom fitness tracker with a heart rate monitor, though I'll have to figure out how much to trust the calorie burn it gives.
Meanwhile, I dug out my pedometer and am trying to up my step count during the day, which I admit is abysmally low. My question is, though, how to translate that into calories burned. I saw a thread that estimated anything below 5,000 steps was considered sedentary, and recommended about 7,500 steps before moving into the lightly active category; another said 5,000 - 7,500 would count. I'm not sure what to believe. Right now, getting to a consistent 5,000 steps a day is going to be a goal as I'm not even getting to that point, but I'm not sure how to translate that here without moving myself out of the sedentary category.
When I was hitting between 7k and 8k I was definitely at at a lightly active TDEE. I checked it and rechecked it in my spreadsheet before I believed it.
I would suggest trying to get your steps stabilized at a higher average for a few weeks and then if you want I can help you you figure your energy expenditure. Then you can decide what to eat based on your own numbers instead of what is normally suggested. I will say that my own stubbornness not to accept those same suggestions did result in some pretty low energy days but I have fixed it all now.1 -
@PAV8888
I am not sure where it is getting the numbers. My activity multiplier is 2.25 and I calculate my TDEE at around 3500 calories. That link calculates it at a touch over 4000.
Did you run it backwards with your current state being maintenance and your starting state being where you were when you started? You would have to use expert mode and you would have to adjust the number of days first and adjust the uncertainty window possibly.
The planner is a math model of Hall's dynamic weight change prediction. Hall does account for some adaptive thermogenesis especially post month six. i.e. he predicts at the same deficit a higher rate of loss up to month six than afterwards for MOST PEOPLE.
We would have to look the make up of his samples but chances are fairly good that he would have more garden variety obese people in his samples as opposed to people starting where the OP is starting. So for someone like the OP the timeframe may well be longer than six months before the same effects are seen -- the effects could be, for example, based on fat percentage.
By the same token the whole thing is dynamic. Sure the parameters change but we also change and our activity factors are not a single number even though we enter them as such.
I personally think that Hall's model may be true DURING weight loss (if posting the deficits as entered); but that it may not capture post weight loss after several months as perfectly (i.e. that post weight loss at maintenance there is a reversal of some of the effects).
In any case, it is ONE model. For myself, to the best I can determine, it under-estimated how much I could eat during weight loss by about 300 Cal a day, and it under estimates what I can now eat, at maintenance, by about 200 Cal a day. And, as you may know, my numbers, in general, track pretty close to population means
@PAV8888
I thought it better to continue this conversation here.
So using https://www.niddk.nih.gov/bwp
I reran my actual weight loss from August 24, 2018 (earliest spreadsheet records) through February 8th which is when I rebooted the SS and fleshed it out more.
The site gave me a daily calorie goal amount of 1334 which would have created a 1825 to 1611 deficit from beginning to end based on their TDEE numbers which started at 3159 and ended at 2945. I calculated my starting TDEE to be about that and ended a little lower.
From August 24 through Feb 9th (169 days) I lost 61.4 pounds which required a 1272 daily average deficit.
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Hmmm, you lost me a bit on the narrative.
You say your starting and ending TDEE were correctly predicted but that you achieved the loss with a smaller deficit?
Well in a way that would be good, right?
The models are interesting from a curiosity perspective and to maybe give some tweeking ideas to a person starting up.
For most of us already dancing in the show, our own logging numbers are WAY WAY more relevant.... individually the only thing that's relevant!
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Hmmm, you lost me a bit on the narrative.
You say your starting and ending TDEE were correctly predicted but that you achieved the loss with a smaller deficit?
Well in a way that would be good, right?
The models are interesting from a curiosity perspective and to maybe give some tweeking ideas to a person starting up.
For most of us already dancing in the show, our own logging numbers are WAY WAY more relevant.... individually the only thing that's relevant!
I don't really have a narrative other than curious how their numbers work. I am always looking to learn new weight loss math.
I asked to recreate that same period of time with the same ending results.
The 1272 deficit was the actual result: (61.4 / 169) * 3500.
It appears the deficit they gave me was going to overshoot my intended weight loss by a sizable margin unless I did something wrong - which is ALWAYS possible.1 -
By narrative above I meant what you wrote in your post. I had some trouble following. Possibly due to lack of coffee!
I gather the simulation indicated a larger deficit for you than what you had to apply. The simulation also appeared to come in with a relatively low TDEE and food intake (not egregiously low, but appreciably low) for myself, until I used the physical activity "guides" and "suggestions" the simulation makes in place of the physical activity factors I knew to be true based on my MFP logging. Based on my logging and recollection my initial AF was 1.6 and my ending AF about 2.1. The simulation seems to use / suggest definitions that use higher numbers...
Either that, or I admit that I may be succumbing to a temptation to better fit my data!
My initial PA was, in my books about 1.6 at 10-11K steps a day. I used the addition of one hour of intense walking daily during weight loss, and an addition to the starting level of activity of 75 minutes of moderate walking post weight loss. This is to account for the increases from initial values of ~6/7K in steps during weight loss, and 8/9K subsequently and talking into account the apparent "feeling" of intensity (which I normally consider to be a bad guide for the actual physical effort as perception doesn't always match output).
The initial calculation yielded a big underestimate of calories. Same as with you it told me to eat way less than I did to achieve goals.
Moving the initial PA value to 1.7 (which is the guided setup for very light work and active leisure) comes much closer. But by the "lame" definitions they are using, to account for a 1+ full hour of "fast" walking per day, I suspect I should be selecting 1.9 (the combination of very light work and very active leisure).
1.9 yields a slight over-estimate (tells me to eat more calories than I did), and if I go by 1.8 which is between what I think would be their two definitions... we come to within 50-60 Calories of my own numbers!
Screenshot is from my run with a starting PA value of 1.7... It is a value of 1.8 that essentially duplicates my results. The optional physical activity changes have to be "re-run" when the base level changes since the % values change.
All in all... the model is just one model--not an off the wall model but not perfect.
Hmmm.... ok... I am now caffeinated and ready to tackle real life!
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I tried to create a spreadsheet, but it fell apart and I don't think I had it set up right anyway. So I have the link above a try, but I'm not sure I'm doing it right.
My activity levels have dropped off since June, and while I'm working from home I am truly sedentary and in front of the computer all day. But in my free time, I do try to either get at least a 6 mile walk in which comes to around 3.3 mph as my average speed and usually takes me around 110 minutes or 1.8 hours, or I'm pushing mowing the lawn for at least 60 minutes with a big portion of that being on a steep bank. And 2 days a week for part of the summer, I've been doing a 2 1/2 hour jiu-jitsu class, though with all the starting and stopping, I'm only counting about 30-45 minutes as actual rolling. So I'm doing something active at least 5 days a week. According to my fitness tracker records, I'm down to averaging about 8,000 to 9,000 steps a day.
I am 40 years old, 5'8", and currently as of this morning weigh 224.1 lbs. If I put in 217 lbs as my goal by October 1st or 5 weeks from now and an activity level of 1.7, they are telling me to eat 2,238 calories a day, which is their active setting with sedentary work day. If I change it to moderate and a multiplier of 1.6, I'm getting 2079 calories recommended.
7 lbs off in 5 weeks would be a rate of 1.4 lbs/wk which I chose just to make it easy to compare to MFP.
MFP's guided setup give me this to lose 7 lbs at 1.5 lbs/wk:
1,420 calories per day for sedentary setting
1,680 calories per day for lightly active setting
2,030 calories per day for active setting
2,370 calories per day for very active setting
So the website's moderate activity level of 1.6 is tracking close to MFP's active setting.
If I wanted to do the TDEE method and set myself in MFP to active and 2030 calories, that means I"m getting around 600 calories or so for the activity, which is actually pretty close to what I'm currently doing - right now, I'm set to 1,450 calories as my deficit sedentary, and then I'm adding back around 600 calories of activity on the days where I walk or mow grass or whatever, using 75% of MFP's calculated numbers for the length of time I do that activity, whether it be walking, mowing the lawn or the jiu-jitsu.
My trend weight from HappyScale hasn't been anywhere close to 1.5 lbs/wk, though, for the last 3 months; its been averaging more like 1 bl/wk from June to now. But at the same time, I have been fighting water weight problems since the high heat hit which has skewed my numbers, and I had that diet break for 1 week in August. And I've been struggling with snackiness again and lethargy for the last several weeks, so I think my CI is actually been higher than I realize while CO has been dropping steadily.
I suppose all I can do is to bookmark this particular reply, buckle down for the next 5 weeks, and see where my actual results end up come October 1st.
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MFP has active as 1.6*BMR You're sounding a bit more than that.
The starting and ending points matter in the simulation. The simulation generally starts with the same numbers as MFP. But MFP etc, assumes a non changing value of 3500 Cal per lb of fat weight lost.
The simulation is based on a dynamic model whose math NOTATIONS I don't even understand but the upshot is that it expects some degree of adaptive thermogenesis and the 3500 Cal do not remain constant from start to finish but increase as time goes on.
Of course the uncertainty of the values also increases the longer the simulation runs.
So--for the purpose of the simulation--your true entry point would not be zero... your entry point would be where your previous losses would indicate you now are.
But of course the simulation doesn't allow you to enter that!
Not sure what spreadsheet you need... but I am sure either Novus or myself can hook you up with working ones. Heybales also has one circulating around...
Most of mine have been concentrating on comparing expected logging results vs Fitbit TDEE numbers but the concept is the same (you can call "your Fitbit" whatever Calorie out estimator you want to validate against your actual losses)1 -
I don't have a fitbit and while my activity tracker does have a function to calculate calories burned, I don't trust it to be correct, so I've been sticking with the MFP database entries for my activity, hence why I've been using 75% instead of the full 100%, especially for things like "gardening, general". For the Jiu-Jitsu, I use more like 35% since I'm assuming that the database entry is based on a fully trained person actively rolling for that time frame in a live match and not someone who is new to it spending a lot of time working through the drills slowly and watching others.
NovusDies was suspecting I was under eating my activity levels too, but my summer time water weight retention has made it hard for me to evaluate whether that is the case or not, especially given the fatigue problems I've been dealing with. I also know that I've gotten a little sloppy in my logging too, which isn't helping matters.
I know that my poor sleep patterns for the last several weeks has been a large factor in the fatigue, though trying to fix that has been an uphill battle. I've gotten a new mattress for my bed, and I'm trying out over the counter melatonin right now since the Z-quil didn't work to see if that can help me establish better sleeping patterns. One of the reasons my activity level took a nose dive is that I was trying to get up at 5 AM to get a walk in before I started work, but I found that no matter how many weeks I did this, I could not adjust to that wake up time - I am not a morning person by any means at all, and that extra 1 1/2 hour sleep a morning makes a huge difference in my stamina for the day, so I've been forced to stop doing that. Unfortunately, that pushes my walks back to evening time and that's been sporadic thanks to evening time pop up showers. It also means that on days where I need to do yard work or things like that, I don't get a walk in at all because the time slot has be to used for other things.
I figure the best thing I can do is buckle down for the next 5 weeks with the basics: quit snacking, make myself log everything that goes into my mouth, keep track of calories eaten and loss each week, then figure out what my true loss rate is to get an idea of how much of my activity I should be counting back.
Course that sounds like a no brainer. Unfortunately, my brain doesn't always get with the program...... Today for example: I can account for just about everything, but I caught myself getting a dip of peanut butter and eating it before it crossed my mind to weigh it, so I'm having to estimate how much that was. Stupid, Bridget, stupid, especially with peanut butter, considering how calorie dense the stuff is!1 -
I've pulled your peanut butter trick more than once... especially more so after I stopped "it won't go into my mouth unless it's already logged"--which was about 5 years ago
A particularly obsessive person might go back and count how many grams of PB they have recorded to date, subtract the gu-estimated weight of the jar and figure out how much is unaccounted for... then again, and that's the truth, that level of precision is NOT necessary.
Doesn't matter if you have a band or not. The calculations just validate your CICO estimating against weight trend change. You can run the calcs against a band, your own CICO/MFP calculation style or even random numbers
Of course random numbers may fail to provide any insight!!! 
There is not much that can be done re: water retention other than waiting it out! HOWEVER and going with the general tenor of your posts.
You are active. (((big snip of a paragraph or two of me going out on a tangent).
Eat to your activity.
It is not a crime you have to justify.
You don't get a special prize for losing by eating less calories if you can lose while eating more!
NOT fully eating to your activity enhances the chances that your muscles will adapt to higher levels of efficiency. It enhances the chances you will feel fatigued and low energy. Both would run the risk of being calorically counter productive in the long term. Be inefficient and profligate with your caloric expenditures! Don't be fatigued and sleepy/low energy!
Your power to weight ratio is improving. You should be flying and perpetually energetic assuming you're not overdoing your deficit.
I hear you about wanting to impress your doctor. But 5 or 10lbs today won't floor your doctor. What will ACTUALLY floor your doctor is coming back next year and next year at the same or lower (frankly at a not substantially higher) weight!
And the ability to achieve that (and this is totally an opinion not supported by any study I know about) comes from threading the line between being aggressive enough to get results but NOT aggressive enough to make things too hard OR to make them more long term difficult than they have to be.
Minimum (negative) side effects from things done to achieve weight loss = maximum benefits!
In brief (you can stop giggling now), once in a while you might have to take a risk before the numbers TRIPLE confirm it.
you don't always need to see numbers to confirm your logging expectations:
some possible hints you're in a deficit:
--weight trend is going down
--resting heart rate is downward trending (possibly steady) but generally not increasing
--you have an extra spring in your steps after a woosh
some possible hints you're in a substantial, possibly excess for you in your current situation deficit:
--getting tired more easily
--losing strength more easily
--feeling faint and hangry irritable often
--obsessed more so than normal with food
some possible hints you're in a temporary surplus compared to before
--nails grow quicker
--uptick in resting heart rate
--you are feeling full of energy and can actually feel stronger
some possible hints you're on a sustained gaining spree
--nails are not growing quicker after an over-feed but are now growing on a steady rate... just faster than when you were in a deficit
--resting heart rate has gone up long term.
--you are actually feeling a bit sluggish as compared to normal when you go out for an activity2 -
Would be interested in more "hints" by others....
Re extreme / prolonged deficit for current situation: -- regularly feeling more cold when not moving
Re initial short term surplus after deficit: feeling need to foot tap / move especially a little bit after eating (let's throw an hour later as a number)
All above not validated beyond n=11 -
Here's one for you - I recently bought a jar of Polish dill pickles to help with the snacking urge (and because where I am, its very rare to actually find polish pickles and not kosher ones so when I saw them I snapped them up). The thing is, the jar says they are 0 calories per serving. I'm thinking, no its not 0 calories, and a serving is something like 3/4 of a spear - so what am I really eating when I eat 2 spears?
I'm sure its obvious I'm not that obsessive of a person I do usually weigh my peanut butter because I know how calorie dense it is, but I don't weigh the bread I put it on. And I'm too lazy to weigh my can of canola spray. since I usually just spritz the pan and then keep an eye on whatever it is I'm cooking without adding much more, I figure it'll come out in the wash - and my deficit is still high enough that I can blissfully ignore that level of precision. Which is also why I know I'll never get to 165 lbs.....I am way too lazy to ever survive 6 months of being required to pay attention to that level of precision.....
now you have me curious - what rabbit trail tangent did you snip back out? lol
Knowing that heart rate doesn't always predict the correct activity level and that all of this is a formulaic estimate anyway trying to statically model a dynamic machine, I just found it easier to use the MFP database and adjust how much of that I actually count against weekly loss rate. The water weight for the last several weeks has just made it frustratingly difficult to figure out what my true loss rate has been!
I went back and looked at my HappyScale log, though, and I think I have a valid number to compare against 6 weeks ago - On July 24th, I weighed 228.9, and looking at the weights around it, that was actually the lowest weight for that week, so I think it was a weight that was least hampered by water weight issues.
This morning, I weighed in at 222.1 lbs which is an all time low. That's a 6.8 lb difference, or 1.13 lb/wk average rate over the last 6 weeks. Of course, that includes that 10 day diet break in the middle, and you can see that on the HappyScale graph for the 90 day period because its a big bump in the downward trend line. And HappyScale's reports for the last 3 months is showing that the trend per week for the last 3 months has been between 1 and 1.5 lbs/wk as my rate. Knowing that I'm still obese and still am 60 lbs overweight, to me that seems to be a perfectly reasonable and steady rate to have and isn't overly aggressive. That 3 months trend rate would seem to me to be telling me that I am eating back the correct number of calories for my activity range. And I am eating back on average 600 calories for days where I get in over 10,000 steps which does push my total calorie intake up into what MFP would give me for active calories anyway. - that has me eating 2,000 - 2,200 calories a day.
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That's why I was having a hard time wrapping my mind around the idea that my fatigue issues were solely due to not eating enough. I did start adding back more exercise calories - played around with adding back 100% of the walks at the very least, and I took the 10 day diet break where I tried my level best to eat at a slight surplus (and I figure I did since I was vacationing). I don't see where it helped, truthfully.
BUT
I don't remember ever having huge increases in energy levels period. The only time I felt jittery was back in May, but I also found out that my TSH was way, way too low, too. The doctor decreased my thyroid meds to compensate. Of course, I'm told that excess energy and jitteriness is supposed to be a sign of being hyperthyroid, too, but it took me being into the extreme hyperthyroid range before I even started to feel that way. That's one reason why I've asked my endo to keep me in the bottom range of healthy/into the upper end of hyperthyroid.
--So I am noticeably tired and fatigued and mentally sluggish. But I can look back at my daily expenditure and I can see that I am more active. So I'm more tired than before, but I'm doing more and more strenuous activity than before, so perhaps the increased activity is burning up the excess energy I'm supposed to be getting from being lighter? And I am fighting depressed mood right now, which can also be causing the mental sluggishness.
--I've also noticed that what I want to call "tired", when I really analyze the feeling, is really more mental fatigue than physical - my mind thinks about doing that activity and screams "I'm too tired" which is the only way I can think of to describe what I'm feeling (and I am notoriously horrible at putting feeling into words); its not really my body telling me that. If I push through and do something anyway, I find that I do have the energy to do it; the mental energy when I really look at it is where I'm most fatigued, and that sounds more like depression problems.
--I have noticeably lost strength. But after losing 150 lbs, I'd expect that I can't stop some muscle mass loss, especially since I'm not actively lifting weights. I know I need to add strength training to my regimen; I just haven't been able to afford it and I really want to get with a trainer on that to make sure my form is correct and I don't hurt myself. My carpal tunnel is getting worse, I know, and that is also a reason why I have lost strength in my hands. The question is, how much of that strength loss can be attributed to the carpal tunnel? I know my legs are stronger - I can see that when I'm doing jiu-jitsu and my partner can't seem to break my leg lock......
--I don't do well in trying to figure out my RHR on my own - I have the worst time finding my pulse points, so I end up having to rely on my blood pressure cuff to tell me, and by the time I get to it, I've already been up and about for some time, but going by what its telling me and the few times I've been able to actually find my pulse point while lying in bed, my RMR is around 60 - I've been sitting here for the last hour in front of the PC, found my pulse in my neck and just checked and got 60 as the heart rate. Its been there for months and hasn't changed.
--I haven't noticed any difference in the growth rate of nails or hair, nor do I seem to have brittle nails or thinner hair - both seem to be what they've always been (Though I'd love to get rid of the chin hair......)
--irritability has been an issue the last few days, but I'm female and still dealing with cycles, and I know for a fact that my hormones do that do me and have since I started puberty - just ask my mother! She could always tell just by my cranky levels! And so does lack of sleep which I have most definitely been dealing with along with depressed mood.
Much of what I'm fighting can also be attributed back to the lack of restful sleep - the tiredness and sluggishness mentally, the irritability, the weaker self control and drive to eat. That's why I've been looking at trying to fix the amount of time I sleep (i.e. try to start getting 7-8 hours of sleep rather than 5-6) and getting more rest from that sleep because I know this is compounding the fatigue problem.
And a lot of it can also be caused by being in a depressed mood. So there are several things going on at once that are likely working together to cause my fatigue and brain fog.
I go in 2 weeks to get the bloodwork ordered by my doctor which is a full health panel for my yearly screening for my PCP. And in 2 weeks, I'll be getting the latest thyroid panels done for my endo. I see both of them in the next month, so if the fatigue problems continue to linger, it will definitely be brought up with both of them.
Meanwhile, I really do hope that with the breaking of the high temperatures and high humidity, that water weight issues will not be as prevalent so that I can establish a steady trend over the next 5 weeks and figure out for sure just what my true loss rate is.
And the long term diet break I'm planning for the end of this year will also be a big help, I think, by coming out of a deficit long term (once I figure out for sure where maintenance actually is).
As for the depression, all I can do there is wait it out; "this too shall pass."
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bmeadows380 wrote: »And HappyScale's reports for the last 3 months is showing that the trend per week for the last 3 months has been between 1 and 1.5 lbs/wk as my rate. Knowing that I'm still obese and still am 60 lbs overweight, to me that seems to be a perfectly reasonable and steady rate to have and isn't overly aggressive. That 3 months trend rate would seem to me to be telling me that I am eating back the correct number of calories for my activity range. And I am eating back on average 600 calories for days where I get in over 10,000 steps which does push my total calorie intake up into what MFP would give me for active calories anyway. - that has me eating 2,000 - 2,200 calories a day.
Sounds reasonable-ish! I am a fan of percent of TDEE limits and 750 deficit out of 2750 would be surfing close to that edge. So don't go around thinking of yourself as "coasting with the foot off the gas"
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