Am I being unreasonable?
glp2323
Posts: 13 Member
I've been dieting about 6 weeks now and have lost about 30lbs. (I have a ton to lose)
I weigh myself weekly and don't obsess over the scale between weigh-ins.
However, I'm getting a bit discouraged. The amount of weight I'm losing each week is SLOWING way down. I went from 8-9 lbs a week to 6lbs to 4lbs and this past week to 3lbs. This despite the fact I feel like I'm increasingly stricter with my food intake, and increasing my exercise goals.
I know the average "healthy" weight loss is 1-2 lbs a week, but I'm no average healthy person. I think most larger losers expect the weight to drop faster when following a strict diet and exercise plan.
Am I unreasonable to expect a weight loss of 5-6 lbs a week? I feel like the slowing weight loss may be indicating I'm doing something wrong (I'm basically eating a keto/low carb diet). Or am I overreacting?
Successful big losers...How quickly were you able to shed pounds?
Thanks all!
I weigh myself weekly and don't obsess over the scale between weigh-ins.
However, I'm getting a bit discouraged. The amount of weight I'm losing each week is SLOWING way down. I went from 8-9 lbs a week to 6lbs to 4lbs and this past week to 3lbs. This despite the fact I feel like I'm increasingly stricter with my food intake, and increasing my exercise goals.
I know the average "healthy" weight loss is 1-2 lbs a week, but I'm no average healthy person. I think most larger losers expect the weight to drop faster when following a strict diet and exercise plan.
Am I unreasonable to expect a weight loss of 5-6 lbs a week? I feel like the slowing weight loss may be indicating I'm doing something wrong (I'm basically eating a keto/low carb diet). Or am I overreacting?
Successful big losers...How quickly were you able to shed pounds?
Thanks all!
3
Replies
-
Congratulations on your healthy progress! Slowing down like that is perfectly normal. Stick with it and the weight will continue to drop. I was able to lose 70lbs over 2 years (not always diligent with my habits so your milage may vary.)2
-
I believe I read once that a 'healthy' amount of weight to lose per week is 1% of your body weight. So 5-6 pounds is not unreasonable for someone that is 500-600 pounds. If you're less than that, then your healthy loss range would be lower. Most people experience a really high loss in the first couple of weeks due to water weight loss, then it starts to slow down. Remember this is a marathon, not a sprint, you likely didn't gain 5-6 pounds a week every week to get here, you shouldn't try to lose too quickly.4
-
Unless you weigh 800+ pounds the answer is that yes, you are being unreasonable. I do not say that with any judgment though. I did the same thing many times when I lost a lot of water weight at first. You think it will continue and it will not. Water can drop several pounds in a single day. Fat is dropped in a fraction of a pound each day. Water weight will come and go the entire time you lose. There will be periods in which you show no losses or even gains for a week or more while you continue to lose fat because of water weight.
I had A LOT to lose when I started. During my first year I lost 158 pounds which averages to about 3 pounds per week. That was being moderately aggressive since I decided to stay under the 1 percent rule but higher than the 2 pounds per week. I could have lost faster and stayed at the 1 percent rule but I could never find adequate research to suggest that was safe over a long period of time.
As long as you are not making yourself miserable while you are losing weight it will seem, at times, like it is taking a long time. However, if you keep refining your process and making it as easy and comfortable for yourself as possible you will likely be, as I have been, shocked how fast it all happens. It happens so fast that your brain may not be able to keep up and you will be participating in the "fat brain" thread we have here.4 -
Honestly? Yes, that is an unreasonable expectation; 5-6 lbs/wk is not sustainable, no matter how much you have to lose. And that fast, even for an obese person, is dangerous - people who would be 500-600 lbs and losing that fast long term should absolutely be under a doctor's supervision while attempting it, and I can tell you that no doctor would keep them losing that fast for a long term plan; as their weight dropped, so too will that loss rate.
Remember that a calorie deficit is a major stress on the body; the bigger the deficit, the more stressful it is. When you are starting out obese, you have more reserves available which helps minimize some of that stress, but you can't negate all of it. Drastically under eating for long periods of time leads to all sorts of malnutrition problems up to and including heart damage at the extreme end. That's why MFP is completely against very low calorie diets and sets the minimum at 1200 for ladies and 1500 for guys as that's the scientifically determined minimum calorie input needed daily just to survive (of course, for very, very short or very very tall people, those could be slightly different).
And under-eating for an obese person, even dangerous under-eating, will occur at a higher calorie deficit than it will for a smaller person because the bigger you are, the more demand your body is under because the greater mass it is carrying around and therefore the more calories it takes to survive. This means that the minimum needed for an obese person just for daily body needs to survive is actually higher than that 1200 calories.
This above is why there are limits and suggested safe loss rates, such as the 1% rule. But remember about the 1% rule: that's the maximum reasonably safe loss rate on average; it may not be the reasonably safe loss rate for YOU.
when you first start eating in a deficit, especially if you are going for a 1000 calorie deficit, you will drop a lot of water normally in the first couple of weeks; this is why you lost 8 - 9 lbs. And when you are eating low carb/keto, you lose even more water in the first few weeks because the body needs more water to process carbs so when you are eating fewer carbs, your body needs less water to deal with them and thus flushes that excess water out.
So you need to understand that much of that 30 lbs that you lost in the first 6 weeks was actually water and not fat. The good news is that your rate now, 6 weeks later, is mostly likely now actual fat loss, meaning your 3 lbs/wk is going to be mostly fat if you are sticking to your deficit and is your true loss.
Also note that as you lose weight, you have less mass that your body needs to sustain and therefore you naturally have less calories needs than before so if you don't adjust your deficit to account for that, over time, your body will naturally reduce that deficit and you will lose slower. That means that your BMR (which is the calorie needs your body needs just to be alive) will naturally reduce as you lose weight. That's not your problem at the moment, but as you have more success and lose more, it will become a problem and will naturally lead to a slower loss rate.
Look at it this way: you did not gain all that weight in a few weeks; you cannot lose it in a few weeks either. When you are starting from a large weight and have over 100 lbs to lose, you really must come to accept that it is going to take months and years to get down to your goal weight.
But this isn't bad news! You have to think in terms of sustainability - is what you are doing now something you can continue doing long term? The idea is to make weight loss as painless as possible and to set up new habits and strategies that not only work when dieting is new and fresh and exciting but that will continue to work several months down the road when it gets old and boring and rote. You are trying to establish a new lifestyle because the end goal isn't actually the weight loss; the end goal is actually maintenance. Many people have great success losing the weight; keeping it off is another story. So what you are doing now is trying to set up the new habits that can last you a lifetime and help you keep the weight off, and doing it slow and steady is key to helping get those new habits ingrained and in place.
I've been at it now for 3+ years and have dropped over 140 lbs in that time frame. I still have 50 lbs to go, and it will likely, if I can keep going, be another year or more to get that last 50 off because I need to slow my loss rate down for health and to ease into maintenance. But I can commiserate with the struggle with the loss rate slowing down; the guys here have heard me moan about it enough this summer as I've gotten to the point where 2 lbs/wk is not reasonable any longer and I'll likely come September need to slow it down even more. I'm planning a long term diet break for 2 months or more to practice maintenance eating and to give my body time to adjust to the weight and readjust my hormone levels before restarting in the spring, and when I do restart in the spring, it will be at a slower loss rate than before.
More importantly to me than the weight loss is the knowledge that in that 3 years span, I've developed a lot of new eating habits that have started to become ingrained, and I need those eating habits to maintain my loss this time around. The first time I lost a lot of weight, I gained back 90% of it; the second time I lost a lot of weight and then plateaued, I only regained about 30% of it. I'm really working this time around to stave off the plateau all together or at least not regain - to me the better success each iteration in keeping the weight down proves to me that I'm learning something from the process!
Congratulations on your loss so far! 6 weeks in as a big victory in and of itself because you've stuck to it!
2 -
Congrats on your weight loss!
I, also, have a lot to lose since I am in the morbidly obese weight. (Starting weight of 390 pounds) When I first started, I lost a bunch of weight my first couple weeks, like you, which I'm sure was water weight. But now I'm averaging around 2.5-3 pounds a week (I've been doing this since the end of June).
My weight management lady told me to look at the weight loss differently than the "1-2 pounds a week" since that is more directed to people who are relatively healthy and not severely obese to begin with. She said a better way to look at it is .5-1% of your total body weight a week. So, depending on how much you weigh, that 3 pounds might actually fall in the healthy loss rate for you! Technically, I could lose 3.5 pounds a week and still fall within the safe weight loss.
Slow and steady is the best way to do this, I feel, so hang in there!
(I should mention that this was the advice given to me by my weight management team, who I am working closely with because of other medical issues I have to work around, so, things might be different for you than what they are for me!)3 -
You are off to a great start! Good for you.
Yes, many of us loose a lot more weight in the first few weeks of a serious diet, its not all fat some water, some just less mass in your digestive track. In my case I settled down to losing on average about 2.5 lbs/week. And I think that is about as fast as weight loss gets longer term anyway. If you can lose 1 or 2 pounds per week that would be pretty good.
So you should be happy with your progress to date, and your continuing weight loss. You really are doing very well!1 -
Forgot to mention, I am down 200 lbs from my historic high, so I do have some weight loss experience. No particular expertise beyond that though.1
-
Unless you weigh 800+ pounds the answer is that yes, you are being unreasonable. I do not say that with any judgment though. I did the same thing many times when I lost a lot of water weight at first. You think it will continue and it will not. Water can drop several pounds in a single day. Fat is dropped in a fraction of a pound each day. Water weight will come and go the entire time you lose. There will be periods in which you show no losses or even gains for a week or more while you continue to lose fat because of water weight.
I had A LOT to lose when I started. During my first year I lost 158 pounds which averages to about 3 pounds per week. That was being moderately aggressive since I decided to stay under the 1 percent rule but higher than the 2 pounds per week. I could have lost faster and stayed at the 1 percent rule but I could never find adequate research to suggest that was safe over a long period of time.
As long as you are not making yourself miserable while you are losing weight it will seem, at times, like it is taking a long time. However, if you keep refining your process and making it as easy and comfortable for yourself as possible you will likely be, as I have been, shocked how fast it all happens. It happens so fast that your brain may not be able to keep up and you will be participating in the "fat brain" thread we have here.
What is the 1% rule?1 -
I might be completely wrong but I think it means if you weigh 300 you could safely lose 3 lbs a week....if you weigh 260 you could lose 2.6 lbs a week....the amount you should lose constantly changes and this doesn’t mean that you can lose that much....am I right?3
-
Unless you weigh 800+ pounds the answer is that yes, you are being unreasonable. I do not say that with any judgment though. I did the same thing many times when I lost a lot of water weight at first. You think it will continue and it will not. Water can drop several pounds in a single day. Fat is dropped in a fraction of a pound each day. Water weight will come and go the entire time you lose. There will be periods in which you show no losses or even gains for a week or more while you continue to lose fat because of water weight.
I had A LOT to lose when I started. During my first year I lost 158 pounds which averages to about 3 pounds per week. That was being moderately aggressive since I decided to stay under the 1 percent rule but higher than the 2 pounds per week. I could have lost faster and stayed at the 1 percent rule but I could never find adequate research to suggest that was safe over a long period of time.
As long as you are not making yourself miserable while you are losing weight it will seem, at times, like it is taking a long time. However, if you keep refining your process and making it as easy and comfortable for yourself as possible you will likely be, as I have been, shocked how fast it all happens. It happens so fast that your brain may not be able to keep up and you will be participating in the "fat brain" thread we have here.
What is the 1% rule?
As @conniewilkins56 explained is the maximum amount of weight a person should try to lose in a single week. There is an upper limit to how much fat a body can metabolize to cover energy deficits after it reaches that limit it will turn to lean body mass like muscle. There is also the issue of nutrition, energy management, and mental management.
It should be noted though that the problem with losing in excess of 1 percent is really only a problem in longer term scenarios. This is not something to worry about if it happens over a few weeks. Your body is designed to handle short term famine but very bad things will happen if you starve it for too long.
2 -
I've been dieting about 6 weeks now and have lost about 30lbs. (I have a ton to lose)
I weigh myself weekly and don't obsess over the scale between weigh-ins.
However, I'm getting a bit discouraged. The amount of weight I'm losing each week is SLOWING way down. I went from 8-9 lbs a week to 6lbs to 4lbs and this past week to 3lbs. This despite the fact I feel like I'm increasingly stricter with my food intake, and increasing my exercise goals.
I know the average "healthy" weight loss is 1-2 lbs a week, but I'm no average healthy person. I think most larger losers expect the weight to drop faster when following a strict diet and exercise plan.
Am I unreasonable to expect a weight loss of 5-6 lbs a week? I feel like the slowing weight loss may be indicating I'm doing something wrong (I'm basically eating a keto/low carb diet). Or am I overreacting?
Successful big losers...How quickly were you able to shed pounds?
Thanks all!
Welcome @glp2323! This is a great and supportive group, with lots of good advice and experiences.
To jump into this a bit late - It really is a long, slow process. But it is amazing how quickly it seems to go over time. I started out at 257 lbs last June, and have as of today lost 60 lbs.
Others have mentioned above what sort of rate of loss you can healthily sustain and expect to see, and mention the 1% rule. I want to reiterate what @conniewilkins56 said: that 1% is regarded as the maximum rate of loss, but not necessarily the right rate for you. When I started, I 100% would not have been able to sustain a 2.5 lbs loss per week. I would have lasted a week, and been so hungry that I'd have eaten my way through the pantry and given up.
For me, knowing how much I loved food, my first goal was just to eat at maintenance for a while. After a few weeks, I decided to do a very small (<250 calorie deficit) and get used to that. After another 6 weeks or so, I set myself up with a 500 calorie deficit, which I've kept since then. (This gives me a 1 lb a week loss, and has averaged out correctly over the year). Sometimes I wish I would lose faster, but this has allowed me to lose sustainably and without extra hunger.
I don't know how much you have to lose, if you have health conditions that might benefit from relatively quicker loss (like 1% a week), or how sustainable your calorie deficit is for you. But I did want to offer up the slow option! It has worked for me and allowed me to fairly easily make sustainable changes. I don't know how much longer I have to go (haven't really decided on a goal weight yet, but I need to lose another 52 lbs to be at a healthy BMI), but I know I can keep this up for as long as it takes and beyond.
You'll do great - Most of this process is just figuring out what makes it feel easy for you!3 -
@glp2323 - That initial weight drop that most of us experience when we first start eating at a significant deficit is both a blessing and a curse. A blessing because it gives us a tangible sign that the sacrifices we are making to eat fewer calories is actually working. A curse because it sets up unrealistic expectations for what the next several weeks or months will look like.
As others have said, that rapid initial loss was due to water weight. It's especially common if you lowered the amount of carbs in your diet.
I get being inpatient. I had some serious health issues caused by my weight but the worst one was searing nerve pain that prevented me from sleeping. I was bound and determined to lose weight as fast as I could. But even with an aggressive 1000/day calorie deficit it still took me a full year to drop 100 pounds. That's less than 2 pounds a month, but a rate of loss much faster than most people are willing or able to do.
Since losing 100 pounds, I've slowed my rate down considerably. The health issues are gone, and I'm not in a hurry anymore. I also realized a few things:- The problem with shooting for an aggressive rate of loss is that it makes it really difficult to sustain.
- Something I learned from NovusDies is that the goal of losing weight shouldn't be to make it as fast as possible but to make it as easy as possible.
- By making it easier instead of harder, you are more likely to stick with it.
- Sustained results are what is needed when you have more than 100 pounds to lose.
- There's no prize for getting to your goal weight faster.
- Weight management isn't a narrative with a beginning middle and end. Yes, there is a beginning and a middle, but there is no end. This is a forever thing, so enjoy the journey.
- Don't make yourself miserable by being overly restrictive. If this is a forever thing, don't make changes that you aren't willing to sustain forever.
7 - The problem with shooting for an aggressive rate of loss is that it makes it really difficult to sustain.
-
Thanks for all the feedback. It has helped ease my concerns.
My current weight is around 560 lbs. My peak was about 640 lbs. I'm also 6'7" so I'm a tall big guy (38yrs old).
The coronavirus really was a wake-up call that I needed to get healthy if I wanted to be here long term for my family. I am disappointed in myself and feel incredible guilt it took me this long to "wake up"
I know I can't correct all my problems overnight but the urgency feels real. I just wish I had gotten serious about this sooner.
Thank you again for all the responses. Means more than you know!5 -
Thanks for all the feedback. It has helped ease my concerns.
My current weight is around 560 lbs. My peak was about 640 lbs. I'm also 6'7" so I'm a tall big guy (38yrs old).
The coronavirus really was a wake-up call that I needed to get healthy if I wanted to be here long term for my family. I am disappointed in myself and feel incredible guilt it took me this long to "wake up"
I know I can't correct all my problems overnight but the urgency feels real. I just wish I had gotten serious about this sooner.
Thank you again for all the responses. Means more than you know!
I wish I had my “ wake up” call when I was 38!....oh I probably did because I lost over 100 lbs a few times only to gain it back plus more!....now at 69, I too am in a rush to get this weight off quick because realistically I might have 15 or 20 more good years!...you can lose your excess weight and still have very many healthy years ahead of you!...you are a young man!
Sorry to say the pounds do not come off as quick as we would like them to...I started at 350 lbs and I would have continued to gain if I hadn’t had my wake up call....that moment is a different time for each of us...in 15 months I have lost 90 lbs....could it have been more? Of course but I am losing weight and I am eating the amount of calories I can handle and be comfortable with...I am a binge eater so I have had some set backs and some days harder than others....I whine a lot and what the scales tell me usually sets my mood for the day....not always good!..
But you CAN do this!...Larger Losers is a very supportive and motivated group....if you have questions, someone will find the answers for you...Novus is so motivating and encouraging and inspires all of us!...I find it helpful to read all of the posts and comments here the old and new ones...
We all have one common goal.....getting healthier and losing weight in the easiest way possible....I never in a million years thought I would still be here and actually losing weight and becoming more active...if I can do this, anyone can....I hope you stick around and join in the conversations...there are a lot of good people here!..2 -
You are and you aren't being "unreasonable". You're 38. Wish I had woken up at 38 and that I knew then what I think I know now. Which of course I wouldn't have without some intevering failures!
If you expect to keto yourself to normal weight in a year, you will be disappointed. If you're looking at this as the opportunity to start making changes that will allow you to truly enjoy the 2nd third of your life and to, hopefully, set yourself up for an enjoyable final third... chances are you will be able to do GREAT.
Let's get a real expectations issue out of the way. I don't know how familiar you're with keto--please forgive if you're already aware of this. If you are not, you need to truly comprehend and internalize that a bunch of the weight you lost during your first week on keto is BORROWED WATER WEIGHT that you will LOSE and RE-GAIN AND RE-LOSE EVERY TIME you increase or decrease carbs.
This is a frequent source of disappointment and reason people go "off-track" when doing keto and running into an unexpected carb heavy day. This re-gain, loss, re-gain, loss is NOT BAD. It is NOT a failure. It is simple biology.
The ready reserves of carbs near your muscles and in your liver are stored in a form known as glycogen that combines 1g of carbs to 3+g of water. When you reduce dietary carbs you lose 4+g of weight for every 1g of carbs that your body uses out of these reserves, and when the reserves are restored in the presence of dietary carbs, you gain 4+g of weight for every 1g of carb that you (re)store.
THIS WHOLE TRANSACTION HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH FAT CHANGES. It is LITERALLY "water" weight.
So, especially on keto, don't be discouraged or encouraged by weight changes that happen when you "transition" from low to high carb or back. FAT LEVEL CHANGES are what you're after. Water weight just acts as an annoyance factor!
This by the way does not mean you didn't lose fat during the first few weeks. To the contrary you absolutely have done so. It is just that this initial bonus you saw on keto is very misleading and as I mentioned a frequent source of angst for people who do keto and do not realize this.
That said... you've got a long road ahead. As a 6ft 7" guy a healthy weight in the low/mid 200's is a definite possibility. And an "active" guy at age 41, 6ft 7" and 250lbs... would burn about 3500 Cal a day. Chances are really good that by the time you get there you will be very active even if today you're not.
I would be very tempted to 'start' by setting my goal to be a "reasonable" eating regiment near anticipated healthy weight levels... in your case somewhere in the 3K range... and to eat that amount trying to figure out long term ways of eating. And you can always tweak your goals as the years go by and as you get more active and as life brings about new challenges
There is only one reason why you won't get to where you're trying to go, and that's if you give up. And the most frequent reason people give up? Because they are disappointed with their results vs effort equation.
It sure as heck is not going to be "easy" all the time. But neither me, you, nor anyone else can white knuckle dozens of years of their lives. Whenever you have the option to choose the easier path (easier to implement, easier to get back to, easy for you to get back on track with)... make that choice!
I used the body weight planner (https://www.niddk.nih.gov/bwp) in expert mode. Started you with a physical activity level of 1.25 (equal to MFP sedentary about 3500 steps a day or about 30-40 minutes of non sitting activity a day). "increased you" by 33% during weight loss and by 25% at the end of weight loss (so made you active to very active during weight loss and active during maintenance). A four year plan to 250lbs has you eating about 2787 Calories a day. A three year plan has you eating about 2450. As a much shorter and lighter person i lost most of my weight on MFP eating 2560 Cal... and it was not easy in retrospect though I did feel pretty darn good at the time!
Do note that you will be enjoying significant health results in only a few months... you don't have to get to normal weight to score a win!
So definitely pick the easier way instead of white knuckling it as long as you're headed in the correct direction!
Take care and best of luck! And read the stuff that Novus has written in the various threads in this group and elsewhere. It is quite insightful!4 -
Thanks for all the feedback. It has helped ease my concerns.
My current weight is around 560 lbs. My peak was about 640 lbs. I'm also 6'7" so I'm a tall big guy (38yrs old).
The coronavirus really was a wake-up call that I needed to get healthy if I wanted to be here long term for my family. I am disappointed in myself and feel incredible guilt it took me this long to "wake up"
I know I can't correct all my problems overnight but the urgency feels real. I just wish I had gotten serious about this sooner.
Thank you again for all the responses. Means more than you know!
You need to unload the guilt as quickly as you can. That will only keep you from being objective. Your sense of urgency needs to be managed so it does not make you create an unsustainable path for yourself. It is important that you believe you have the time it takes to lose the weight in a sensible, sustainable, and imperfect fashion. If you don't have the time and you need to move at an even accelerated pace you will need a medical team to help you manage it but even that will still take time.
Misery is your enemy in this endeavor. You don't have to love everything you do to lose weight but you can't hate it. You need to be kind and forgiving to yourself. You need your daily process to be easy. If that is keto for you that is fine and we will fully support you. However, it doesn't have to be keto and if that creates a hardship at some point we will encourage you to pivot to something else or adapt keto to be more in line with what you need.
Gaining weight is only making more poor decisions than good ones. You didn't make all bad decisions along the way. Losing weight is only making more good decisions than poor ones. You won't make all good decisions along the way either.5 -
@PAV8888
For some reason, when I clicked on the link you provided above, I got a NIDDK page not found message - is that my computer or has something changed?1 -
@bmeadows380 🤷♂️
Link from MFP doesn't work.
Google search for body weight planner.
(Or Kevin Hall body weight planner)
Pretty much first result.
Still comes up as per below on long press and copy/paste on phone browser.
Not sure how MFP redirect kittens it up above... below worked a second ago!!!! ☹️🤷♂️
https://www.niddk.nih.gov/bwp
Furthermore and to avoid misunderstanding after I reread my post above: I am absolutely not advocating increased or vigorous activity at current weight. Danger to joints says anything else than progressing quite carefully would truly scare me. I am talking long-term plans and over the course of several years. By the time diet knocks off 150+ lbs of weight you will be WANTING to become more active because of your improved relative power to weight ratio. And I would still be discussing joints with a doctor and making sure I am protecting them for the next 50 years 😘 water based may be the way to start a few months down the road...2 -
@pav8888 It may have just been my PC messing up; but the good news is the second link worked. Even better since I was actually poking around a few weeks ago trying to find that link where you'd posted it before lol
So thank you for posting it again! 2 -
That was an interesting link. I put in my information and said that I was not adding any exercise and it told me that I should eat more than what MFP has told me to eat. Food for thought. Pun intended lol3
-
I used the link and it was very accurate even with the amount of calories I am eating!...if I add 30 minutes of walking, three times a week I could lose 70 lbs by August 1, 2021 and it was the weight I have my eye on as my goal weight!0
-
@PAV8888
I am not sure where it is getting the numbers. My activity multiplier is 2.25 and I calculate my TDEE at around 3500 calories. That link calculates it at a touch over 4000.
Did you run it backwards with your current state being maintenance and your starting state being where you were when you started? You would have to use expert mode and you would have to adjust the number of days first and adjust the uncertainty window possibly.
The planner is a math model of Hall's dynamic weight change prediction. Hall does account for some adaptive thermogenesis especially post month six. i.e. he predicts at the same deficit a higher rate of loss up to month six than afterwards for MOST PEOPLE.
We would have to look the make up of his samples but chances are fairly good that he would have more garden variety obese people in his samples as opposed to people starting where the OP is starting. So for someone like the OP the timeframe may well be longer than six months before the same effects are seen -- the effects could be, for example, based on fat percentage.
By the same token the whole thing is dynamic. Sure the parameters change but we also change and our activity factors are not a single number even though we enter them as such.
I personally think that Hall's model may be true DURING weight loss (if posting the deficits as entered); but that it may not capture post weight loss after several months as perfectly (i.e. that post weight loss at maintenance there is a reversal of some of the effects).
In any case, it is ONE model. For myself, to the best I can determine, it under-estimated how much I could eat during weight loss by about 300 Cal a day, and it under estimates what I can now eat, at maintenance, by about 200 Cal a day. And, as you may know, my numbers, in general, track pretty close to population means1 -
@PAV8888
I am not sure where it is getting the numbers. My activity multiplier is 2.25 and I calculate my TDEE at around 3500 calories. That link calculates it at a touch over 4000.
Did you run it backwards with your current state being maintenance and your starting state being where you were when you started? You would have to use expert mode and you would have to adjust the number of days first and adjust the uncertainty window possibly.
The planner is a math model of Hall's dynamic weight change prediction. Hall does account for some adaptive thermogenesis especially post month six. i.e. he predicts at the same deficit a higher rate of loss up to month six than afterwards for MOST PEOPLE.
We would have to look the make up of his samples but chances are fairly good that he would have more garden variety obese people in his samples as opposed to people starting where the OP is starting. So for someone like the OP the timeframe may well be longer than six months before the same effects are seen -- the effects could be, for example, based on fat percentage.
By the same token the whole thing is dynamic. Sure the parameters change but we also change and our activity factors are not a single number even though we enter them as such.
I personally think that Hall's model may be true DURING weight loss (if posting the deficits as entered); but that it may not capture post weight loss after several months as perfectly (i.e. that post weight loss at maintenance there is a reversal of some of the effects).
In any case, it is ONE model. For myself, to the best I can determine, it under-estimated how much I could eat during weight loss by about 300 Cal a day, and it under estimates what I can now eat, at maintenance, by about 200 Cal a day. And, as you may know, my numbers, in general, track pretty close to population means
I will re-run it from my early records tomorrow and see what I get. In the early days my CO was almost, sadly, clockwork in consistency.1 -
So how is @glp2323 doing?
Are you logging everything you eat? What amount of Calories are you aiming for each day approximately? Do you log after the fact or before you eat? Do you go by packaging? By weight of food? By portion and estimate of how much of each item are in a portion? Are you finding it easy or difficult so far?
Who is the tiny tot in the picture?
Inquiring minds want to know and all that!2 -
Thank you again for all the information, thoughts, and encouragement.
It has been incredibly helpful.
@PAV8888 The tot in the picture is my daughter. The number 1 reason I need to get healthy for!
I keep a food journal on an excel spreadsheet. I log what I eat although I don't portion my food or count calories. Essentially I drink a keto shake to start my day and cook a hot meal that I eat two times a day. I'm not eating dairy, grains, legumes, sugar. Typically chicken, ground turkey, or grass-fed beef with lots of vegetables. Use olive oil primarily as fat. I estimate my plate of food ranges from 600-900 calories although that may be a little high some days.
Because of coronavirus, I've avoided restaurant food which has made transitioning to a diet much easier for me than it has been in the past. The convenience of take out food was always a big temptation for me that thankfully I have avoided for several months now.
The challenge for me with counting calories is I'm not sure how to do it accurately especially as I or my wife are usually cooking multiple portions for a family, and we do a lot of one-pot meals. Do you find counting calories helpful to continued success? Any tips on how to do it?
Since my weight loss journey seems like a long road I'm trying to focus on short term goals. Right now I would love to be under 500 lbs by the end of the year (about 60lbs to go).
Thank you all again for the support. This group is great.2 -
@glp2323 - I do a lot of cooking, and I log all my food in MFP. The recipe feature is a big help. If it's an online recipe, you can just copy the link into to recipe tool and with a little editing, MFP can calculate the nutritional content of all the ingredients (it works better in the web-based app rather than the phone app). For those no-recipe recipes, you can build a recipe manually by adding the ingredients yourself (and that works great in either app). After that, the only challenge is portion size. If it's not easy to eyeball the serving size you can weigh the empty serving dish before you cook and then again after it's ready to serve. The difference between the weights is the total weight of the recipe. If the recipe makes 6 servings, you'll portion out 1/6th of the total weight of your dish.
Yes, this all seems like a pain, but I tend to make the same 10 or so recipes. So if you repeat a stored recipe, you'll already know the weight of a serving size and the nutritional content. If someone else is doing the cooking, you'll want to enlist their help in measuring ingredients as they go if they are making one of those no-recipe dishes and ask them not to throw in an extras without making it part of the recipe.
Logging my food helps me make sure I'm getting enough protein in my diet, staying within my calorie plan, and when I was watching carbs, making sure that stayed under budget. Logging is the single most important tool I used to lose the weight. 450 days later, I'm still logging every day.2 -
I have very little ability to pinpoint what a serving size actually looks like, so without weighing my foods out, I know that I would eat more than I think I am. To stay within my targeted deficit, weighing my foods and calorie counting is an absolute must and is the key to how I've managed to drop what I have.
I'm not to the point where I'm dead on pinpoint accurate or need to be, but I try to be close. for instance: I'm not counting the seconds I use my cooking spray, and I won't bother with the lettuce on a sandwich. I still get by with using the general serving size on a packaged food without weighing it, even though I know it can be 20% off. If its not extremely calorie dense, I count the calories that the serving size is supposed to be. Like my Heiner's 35 bread - I just use the entry for 1 slice at 35 calories without weighing the slice. OR my box of green giant frozen veggies - I just use the full box entry.
But for calorie dense foods, weighing is vital. Peanut butter, for example. 2 Tbsp of peanut butter is a 180 calories. It is very, very easy to over eat peanut butter by as much as 45 calories or more. Butter, oils, nuts - especially nuts. A serving will barely fit in the palm of your hand but will run 200 calories or more. I have no ability at all to eyeball that serving. I weigh my meats because fillet size varies.
In order to lose weight, you must be in a deficit, or eat less than your body burns. Calorie counting is a very good way of measuring your food intake to be sure you are in that deficit.
Right now, with as much as you are facing to lose, you have plenty of room to be able to to just estimate and still find success simply because you are focusing on eating less in general. But as time goes by, you will need to be more accurate in order to continue your success. IT is very easy to accidentally wipe out an entire day's deficit if you aren't paying attention or don't realize that you've eaten a little more than a serving here, a little more of something else there - those little more calories add up over time and will reduce your actual deficit without you even realizing it.
That's also why I am not planning to try to get down to my actual "healthy" BMI weight of 165 lbs, instead aiming for 175-180: I know that when it comes to the last 20 lbs, dead on pinpoint accuracy is an absolute must because the rate has to be very slow for health and because it is extremely easy to wipe out a 250-500 calorie deficit. I know I don't have the patience or the fortitude to deal with that sort of required accuracy! THe best I think I can deal with a a 500 calorie deficit which is a 1 lb/wk rate; any lower than that rate, and I'm not going to survive. the 1 lb/wk rate should get me to my 175-180 goal, though.
Be very careful with your olive oil - that 120 calories per Tbsp, and measuring cups and spoons can be notorious for being off quite a bit, so you could be adding an extra 30-40 calories and not even realize it, per Tbsp. Some vegetables can be calorie dense.
I highly, highly suggest getting a food scale and then using the USDA database or the food package labels to start getting a visual idea of what a serving size looks like versus what you are actually eating. For me it was a huge eye opener - I was simply eating way more than I thought I was.
https://fdc.nal.usda.gov/
You can search the legacy database for entries like raw strawberries, potatoes, meats, etc. You have to be careful with the MFP database - there are a lot of incorrect entries in it, so the best thing is to double check the entries you are using against the USDA database and the package label.1 -
I have to weigh and measure almost everything...I might miss a stick of gum or a spray of Pam or a sugar free hard candy but I log everything else...I have accepted I will need to do this 90% of the time the rest of my life so I might as well grin and just do it!....I also make my food separately...we might eat about the same thing but it only takes a little extra effort to put mine in a different pan, like spaghetti sauce or pudding,vegetables, etc....I do the majority of cooking so I can control the ingredients...if someone else is preparing your meals, help them adjust some of the ingredients in your portion...” being overweight is hard and dieting is hard. choose your hard”0
-
I was thinking the "choose your yard" line too, though for me, that doesn't help. Losing weight may be hard, and staying obese may be hard, but the staying obese was easier than losing the weight initially because it was much easier to just go with the flow and let myself do whatever I wanted. Even now when the losing weight has become easier because the new practices are now in place and more effortless, I still need to be on guard because that part of me that wants what it wants in whatever portion it wants when it wants it is still lurking in the back of my head just looking for a weak spot in the brick wall around it that it can exploit. I have to keep a shovel handy too, for when it tries burrowing under that wall.......5
