Made it through 2 days now

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Well, I'm back on my normal diet for 2 days now after over indulging at Christmas. Today will be a challenge - neighbors over to watch football, snacks around.

Does anyone think the calories expended for exercise are over estimated? The exercise bike I use at the gym shows calories burned. And I tried to find a low enough rated bike on the database here, but this database shows almost double the calories burned than the one at the gym. Probably neither are totally accurate, but I wonder which is closer?