Do you weigh/measure your food? How often do you eat out? In addition to the strength 3x per week, would you consider adding a daily 10 minute walk 2x per day everyday with a goal of increasing that?

That's why I mentioned breaking it up into 2 10 minute segments. I've seen my mom go slow but eventually get up to 6 miles at once. She started at just a few minutes, a few times a day. Do you have thyroid issues? How are you measuring body fat?

Also, try reading through this older thread. Some folks suggest trying to eat at TDEE -30% for short blocks of time (4-6 weeks) and then pushing back up to TDEE-20% for the same...alternating essentially.

I don't agree with the recommendation to go to 1500 calories personally. I've been a fitness instructor for 10 years and I've rarely seen that work for anyone. I'm 5'4", 143 lbs and I can lose on 1800-1900 a day, 1 lb a week with 5-6 hours a week of exercise. I am hungry on 1500 calories a day!!

So indeed, you have raised calories up to a level that would have been according to Fitbit about a 30% deficit.

Which for amount to lose is actually reasonable for now. You have more severe health issues that requires the weight to be gone, and your body is stressed out from that of course.

I'd suggest that weight gain is probably a combo of each increase in calories was a surplus in eating over your then existing suppressed TDEE. At least for some time each increase. The other is water weight I'm sure.

Now - you can only suppress TDEE so much, studies have shown upwards of 20%, sometimes 25% in extreme cases.
You eating about 50% deficit with health issues may have qualified as extreme.

So if Fitbit is correct (good job on manually logging what needs to be) on potential TDEE (not suppressed it would have no clue about), then 2400 could have become your new suppressed TDEE.

But you were eating 1600, lets say very accurate since weighing all food. You still should have lost almost 2 lbs weekly during that time.

So either Fitbit is very off on potential TDEE, or calories from exercise is badly inflated, so your TDEE really isn't that much. So the suppression brought it lower than 2400.
Still should have been a weight loss.

But now, you are getting to the point where constantly elevated cortisol can cause water retention, upwards of 20 lbs. And that could mask fat loss really going on.

But indeed, a suppressed body isn't going to make much in the way of improvements from exercise that require even more calories when already suppressing to conserve them.

I'd suggest your body is still massively stressed from big diet you had, carrying the extra weight, health issues, perhaps lack of sleep, life, ect.

You won't like the suggestion probably, but hear it out.

Eat 250 more daily for 2 weeks.
Even if your TDEE was suppressed to 2400 from let's assume accurate Fitbit giving potential burn figures, and that 250 was truly surplus for 2 whole weeks, body never speeding up - you should only gain 1 lb.
And doing the lifting - not even fat weight.
Reread that.

I'm hoping that the 250 extra is enough of a stress relief, your body will drop some water weight in traditional whoosh. I'm sure you've got some edema going on somewhere. A stiff drink of the hard stuff can help some. Not beer.

Try to make the workouts during that 2 weeks really good. Machines that work the major big muscles first, if limited by time, even if not actually. So biceps and triceps last. Quads, hammies, glutes, chest, back, shoulders all around, calves, then biceps & triceps.
You want rep range of 8-12 reps if not doing that, rests from 2-4 minutes, as heavy as you can go for 3 sets. Try not to do it circuit style with brief rests and light weight, you don't need the extra calorie burn to increase your eating level, it's high enough.

Don't use the TDEE tables with rough levels and you guessing which is right - use the device giving you infinite levels.
Now, more about Fitbit, they are using a BMR similar to Mifflin for all non-moving calorie burn. It does NOT scale well the more fat you have to carry, though it is much better than Harris. So that could be inflated there.
With that body fat % estimate you have (I'd average those results BTW), you could see what the Katch BMR formula says on Scooby's site for BMR reading (forget the TDEE, still use Fitbit). That's going to underestimate the more fat you have actually, opposite of Mifflin BMR formula. An average of the 2 would be better.

That base calorie burn is then used to determine calorie burn based on distance walked/ran, which of course is based on steps and your stride length stat.
So the start to accuracy would be - did you manually input a stride length?
Because I can almost guarantee the formula they use for height and gender won't be accurate for you right now.
I think you are getting inflated calorie burn there.
Once distance is down right, and that BMR figure has been tweaked on their site to a better figure (by changing height on Fitbit), I think you might see some difference for the potential TDEE they show.

And again, that's potential, because I'm sure you have suppressed yours to probably the biggest degree you can.

For your son, see if his classes are keeping up on newer research. Many don't.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2i_cmltmQ6A

http://www.myfitnesspal.com/blog/heybales/view/reduced-metabolism-tdee-beyond-expected-from-weight-loss-616251

http://www.myfitnesspal.com/topics/show/1077746-starvation-mode-adaptive-thermogenesis-and-weight-loss

Sorry about the stream of consciousness above, burned 3000 on long bike ride, and pizza is ready, and starting to get hungry again. Even if not - my brain knows I better eat if I intend to run tomorrow.

I think that is indeed what he means. That's how I read it.

Well, almost.

Eat at 2400 (possible suppressed TDEE) until you have some new adjusted stats from the Fitbit to work with for potential TDEE - so 2 weeks at least.

Then the new Fitbit potential TDEE, take off 20-25% for the suppression you have. That could end up right at 2400 again. Or not. I'm betting less. But not 1800 either.

Then eat whatever that is until weight is stabilized.

Then the 2 week 250 test.

So good job keeping that eating goal about 20% off the Fitbit TDEE.

I could see a rolling 2 week average of Fitbit stats to determine the next weeks TDEE, knock 20% off for suppressed TDEE.

But it does appear you can eat that high and not gaining fat weight, just water weight.

I am concerned though, because in your case the weight being carried is a stress, and potentially adding on more water weight won't help.

That's almost a 600 cal spread between suppressed and potential.

That would take about 3 weeks if you attempted to eat 200 extra daily for a week at a time.

Would you be able to add that many calories with what you are trying to eat, to your diet?

And would you be able to keep exercise as purely full-body resistance training so you burn little extra, so as not to increase TDEE even more?

I'm wondering since you are already in the what is hopefully the max suppressed state - if it might not be beneficial for the about 150 lbs to lose, to take 75 off in the suppressed state.
Yes, skipping the increase to potential TDEE and reset at this time, at this weight.
Dieters edema can be a vicious cycle, and really don't want to get caught in that loop, if you aren't already almost.
At that future time with only 75 lbs to lose, much less load on your system, and potential TDEE is lower.
And then at that time, spend some weeks working your way up to potential TDEE eating level, and do your reset at that point.

If you do resistance training the whole time losing 75 lbs, your ability to increase calories and the body using it for good, will be incredible. And as a male, your ability to increase metabolism is much better.

So suggesting, if it appears from your testing that you do appear to be suppressed by about 20% (would be better to know what closer %), then it might be useful for long term health of joints and future exercise to get a good part of the weight off first.

So taking 20% off suppressed TDEE figure, and eating that.
So for example, lets say your 2200 is suppressed TDEE.
That would make 1760 be eating goal, 20% deficit from 150 - 125 lbs left (if correct weight range).
And each 25 lbs lost, you lower the deficit by 5%.
15% deficit 125 - 100 lbs left.
10% deficit 100 - 75 lbs left.

Then you eat at suppressed TDEE for couple weeks. That 20% off what Fitbit reports your TDEE as.
Then start increasing on weekly bases the daily eating goal until you are eating at Fitbit TDEE. Should be less than 600 cal difference at that point, with 75lbs lost.
Then you reset for however long you think is needed. Again, men with our hormones adjust better usually, but a month might be useful still.

Then you take a normal reasonable deficit for the last 75 lbs left.
20% for 75 - 50 lbs left.
15% for 50 - 15 lbs left.
10% for 15 - goal weight.

During both periods of time, you take a diet break week and eat at suppressed TDEE during first range, potential TDEE from Fitbit during second range. About every 6- 8 weeks, if you can match it up with something that makes that enjoyable to not diet.

Or go with orginal plan, and increase about the 600 cal to potential TDEE right now, reset for however long, and then take reasonable deficit.

And reasonable for first 25 lbs would be 30% at this point.
But again keep dropping the % per 25 lb block until at 15% and ride that out.

Resistance training so needed either way. Machines likely at first. Confirm proper usage so good joint protection.
Good program to progressively overload.

So 5 wk avg Fitbit TDEE 2854, call that potential.

2854 - 20% suppressed = TDEE 2283, call that estimated suppressed.

Avg eaten 1871 during the adjusted last 4 weeks. I'm guessing by Cal Eaten on that date, you mean the average daily for week leading up to that date.

3.1 lbs x 3500 / 28 days = 388 cal deficit in place, except for any water retained issues you are dealing with.

Ate 1871 + 388 deficit = 2259 implied TDEE.

Compared to 2283 estimated suppressed.

Pretty _______ close, if I do say so.

So after you have lost say 10 lbs, I'd pick out the 3 most recent normal weeks of average Fitbit TDEE figures, which should lower as weight goes down, except you may walk faster to compensate.
Anyway, 3 week average of Fitbit TDEE x 0.8 = suppressed TDEE estimate.

Suppressed TDEE x 0.8 = target eating calories.

Excellent results, especially because I'm betting body made some improvements from the exercise during this time.
You measuring several places yet to see changes?

And for my own reminder here too when looking at this a month down the road, at the 30 lb adjustment mark (or 25), change to 15% deficit.

Are joints and swelling doing any better yet?

Weights lifted improving?

I'd say for waist - get belly button, and tape parallel to floor. That's at least consistent and an easy marker to use next time.

Careful on that low hemo, since lifting is anaerobic, there's a big aerobic makeup after the lift, that's when you see people pass out usually, brain has had enough with no oxygen and wants it now, but not getting it.
So careful, maybe sit right after the hardest lifts where head tilts over - just in case, less area to fall in hopefully.

Fortunately suppressed body doesn't change it's normal energy usage. Now literally starving, not eating for days on end - yes, changes to what is burned.

So yes, you are burning mainly fat during the day, during lifting it's high carb burn, during repair from lifting it's higher fat burn, ect.

The biggest loser folks are like research study participants, almost always.
Healthy except for excess weight.
Usually little to no formal exercise prior to start.
No weight loss attempts prior to start for 6-12 months.

That does indeed give all the best benefits to jumping headfirst in to a weight loss program. Almost anything will work the first several weeks or maybe months depending on how aggressive.
But as followups on those folks show - it's the finishing to goal weight that is usually the kicker, or maintaining if goal weight was reached.
And they actually do suppress their daily burn super fast doing those programs - but they create such a big TDEE even when suppressed, and only eating that 1800 or whatever - they still lose weight. Hopefully just fat.

But I wouldn't increase exercise much except perhaps for some walking, in small batches.
Exercise is just increased stressed in suppressed mode - lack of recovery. That's why walking not too bad, it's easy - but burns a tad more.

20% off a tad more is a bigger deficit.

If the deficit is mild enough, 1 day weekly at TDEE or above seems to show in many a decent reset of hormones if done from the start of the diet.

Think of the max method of that research showed success with - 5:2 diet where 5 days are at TDEE, 2 days are at 25% of TDEE. Leads to average weekly deficit of 22%.
Again, with folks just starting a diet.

The problem is when already in a diet, 1 day a week doesn't seem to help, and if suppressed, it's just a day of surplus food to be stored as fat, no changes to hormones or metabolism or daily burn.

At that point, need several weeks at TDEE to get out of it.

You are in that max suppressed state, so you aren't going to be saving the hormones from slowing you down more.
But if you had a day and ate over suppressed TDEE - you will store it as fat.

I think it would be a non-winner for you right now.

Just be aware that any research or studies that show positive results with some method - are almost always done on folks that have had no attempts at weight loss or shown any in usually the last 6-12 months, depending on how picky the study is.

And then most aren't long enough to show up the negative results of whatever they are testing, though some do go 6 months with actually good data.

There were 2 ladies on MFP when I first joined that had been screwed over by a study that only lasted like 8-12 weeks, of course not long enough to take care of their total desired weight loss, just a start to it.
Both attempted to continue the protocol without all the lab testing the study had (despite the researchers advice not to) - they eventually ground their loss to a stop and made it worse by their own efforts.

The carb or calorie cycling is basically getting closer to MFP's daily TDEE method.
You do more one day - you eat more that day.
The cycling methods have you increase the calories with more carbs, usually within the 24 hrs post lifting workout, to get most benefit from the lifting.

So if you were going to attempt that, you'd take say 250 calories from the 24 hrs prior to workout (but still enough right before to do a good workout), and eat 250 extra calories in the 24 hrs post workout to aid recovery.

Gotta be doing a good progressive overload routine though that is damaging the muscles so that it even needs to repair, to use the extra calories.

If workouts are morning, easy, if at night, tad confusing sometimes, though bigger dinner by 250 isn't hard.

That would put you at about 1500 on some days - 2000 on some, and the 1750 on others.