Weight loss expectations...

jetsamflotsam

I couldn't sleep last night so my brain has been going a million miles an hour and this is something I've been thinking about and wanted to get your thoughts on it... What is your weekly weight loss expectation versus the actual reality? When you step on the scale (daily or weekly), what kind of a loss disappoints you? Excites you? Is fine enough?

Because I have so much to lose, for a normal BMI I should lost over my half my body weight, ~160 to 175 lbs, but I set my initial goal to lose 125 lbs because 160 seems a bit extreme at this point, I have never done LC seriously (just that one time in 1999 for one month), I had an expectation that it would be melting off quickly at first... it's not compared to some of the numbers I see on here and instagram... I lost 3.1 lbs the first week, 1.1 the second week... At this rate it will take me about two and a half years to get my BMI below 30, and three and a third years to get my BMI into a "normal" range, and that's if I lose at LEAST 1 lb a week. I'm okay with that... but I don't want to be in weight loss mode my entire 40's!!

I guess what I'm asking is what is a REASONABLE expectation for weekly weight loss? I have a history of starting off strong, but when the weight loss stops I get discouraged and decide that if I'm not going to lose the weight anyway, I might as well eat whatever I want... and you know how that always turns out!! Not good. So I'm trying to prepare myself mentally so I don't go down that path this time.

I have my macros set to lose 1 lb a week as per the keto calculator site, with 50 net carbs per day, around 75 grams of protein, and a bunch of fat (don't remember off the top of my head what it is, but I'm usually a little under, but close). The first couple weeks I was eating 2040 calories because that's what MFP said I should eat to lose one pound a week, but after I checked the keto calculator it said 1740 calories, so I changed my macros to that this week. For the past few days I've been averaging more around the 1400 calorie mark as my appetite has been much lower than normal and I don't like the feeling of eating when I'm not hungry. As things stand, because I've set my macros to lose 1 lb a week, and I've been carefully measuring and logging EVERYTHING, I'd be fine with losing at least 1 lb a week, I'd be excited to lose anything more than that, but anything less I'd feel disappointed.

I know all about water/weight fluctations, TOM, etc... that some weeks it will go up, then a big whoosh later, I'm fine with taking an average over the course of a few months... Is there a pattern people see when losing weight eating LC? I'm sort of surprised to see so many people talking about plateaus... Is that a true plateau? Or are people not being as careful with portions, measuring, logging carb grams? What types of things cause plateaus? Is there any value in having a cheat meal to "shake things up" after a few weeks of no losses? I do intermittent fasting naturally because I'm not a breakfast person and I very rarely snack at night, unless I get super hungry and it's going to keep me awake... I generally do a regular 16 hour fast overnight, and an 8 hour period of lunch, snack, dinner from about noon to 8 PM.

I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts on this... I assume everyone will say it's not a straight line (I know that) and just be patient (hard to do), and don't compare yourself to others (I try not to), and trust the process (I'm not quite there yet... proof is in the sugar free pudding!). But I'm a stats person and I'd really like to hear some stats from the more experienced folks in this group. Thanks!!

RowdysLady

I echo your last paragraph wholeheartedly..."not a straight line" and so forth... I hope to lose about 2 per week but that rarely happens. Some weeks I lose nothing, some weeks I gain and some I lose slightly more than 2 lbs. I can't even use my own week to week as a barometer much less hope someone else can.

I think what's more important to address is what you said about being disappointed if you don't lose at least a pound a week. If I set expectations like that and were disappointed every time I came up short, I'd quickly give up this WOE and any other to go back to eating anything and everything thus gaining it all back plus. I'd be disheartened, miserable and depressed when I felt I didn't succeed. Putting that pressure and stress on yourself is a sure fire disaster. Just don't do it.

My background is in hospital quality. I did that type of work for many years so I am very much a stats person too. What I can tell you from a quality perspective is we NEVER look at day by day or even week by week or month by month data to tell us a good and useful story. Because in one month you can't make assumptions on data. You can only see a small snapshot. It take, typically one quarter - or three months to give a solid picture of progress.

I only weight once a week and I spent the extra money to get a subscription to MFP so I could see the trending data it provides. I NEVER look at my loss over a week or 30 days...I always view it 90 days at a time - even though I've only been on this journey about 80 days. A trend shows in 90 days, not in 1, 7, 10 or even 30. 90 days.

If most of the time you lose and once in a while you don't, DO NOT be disappointed in the results. It's a part of the human body to fluctuate some...water weight, hormones, a bad week, muscle gain from exercise...whatever. You have to only be disappointed when you didn't try your best.

This past week I did all sorts of things I don't normally do...including eating Cheesecake Factory Low Carb cheesecake. I ate two hot dogs and I just knew it was going to be a bad week. I was disappointed that I let stress and being away from home get to me. I vowed to do better and I'm back on track. I did not think to myself when I got on the scale this morning that "I'm going to be so upset if I gained or didn't lose." I anticipated I'd probably gained a little and just promised myself no matter what the scale said I'd stay on track this week. I happened to lose so I was THRILLED!! But I can't allow myself to put so much stress on myself that I'm disappointed when the scale doesn't respond the way I hoped it would.

Also many people will tell you to pay attention to inches as well. The scale lies. I've read that more times than I can count here. It's good advice.

So hang in there, don't sabotage yourself and know that as long as you are doing your best or you get back on track when you don't then you are winning the battle.

wabmester

Try this calculator:
https://www.supertracker.usda.gov/bwp/

kendahlj

Why do you want to lose weight? That's the key...your motivation. If you have a really good motivator, it gives you the commitment, patience and determination to stick to this for the long haul. If you don't, you'll quit. One year is a long time. Just set some short term goals and don't look back. But you got to find that one thing that's going to motivate you and carry you more than a few weeks or months.

jetsamflotsam

I think I explained all the whys in another thread... Maybe not... Can't remember now... In a nut shell I'm losing my mobility and suffer from chronic pain, and I'm not okay with that. I turned 40 and decided if I don't do something now I'm going to miss out on my life... What motivates me is seeing the scale go down. LOL

Vowder

The bump at the start was a cruise. Took me a month to recover.

I am a fan of LCHF. It controls my hunger and the food is delicious. I also aim for a given caloric deficit each week. Given that 3500 calories = 1 lb, decide what you can live with.

I looked up my BMR, added my exercise (very conservatively), my fitness tracker, and then decided what I was prepared to eat and what I could expect as weight loss each week.

The numbers come in pretty close.

This is just over 3lbs/week. That means I need a caloric deficit of 12,500 calories/week or 1,750/day.

If I burn (BMR + exercise) 3,400 calories/day and eat 1,650 that leaves 1750 calories in deficit. (3400-1650=1750 which equals 3.5 lbs/week).

As I lost the weight, my BMR went down and so my exercise has had to go up in order to maintain the pace. I only started exercising well after I started this journey.

So many people told me it was impossible. I've had a few small plateaus but most were because I got lazy on measuring/tracking or exercise. Holidays and special events have also been really tough to manage. This is tough... but doable if you set your mind to it. I was very fortunate to have a wife that supported throughout this process.

I trust the math and it works. It does mean that I have given up booze, breads, pasta's, fruit juices, etc. However, I love the way I feel and really I love the way I am eating. I don't miss what I gave up at all. The deal is completely worth it.

I am planning on relaxing for the months of July and August and then go hard again in September.

I am two weeks from my summer target (7 lbs).

Just DO it!

jetsamflotsam

I don't exercise at all yet due to my pain and inflammation issues. The inflammation is clearing up already so I see more exercise in the near future! I also don't plan on eating the extra calories I burn so that definitely could help me lose faster. That was the piece I was forgetting! I saw your weight loss chart in another thread, that's amazing! Our starting weights aren't that different (301.7 for me) so it's heartening to see someone taking it off steadily without a 6 month plateau...

Vowder

There are a couple of key success factors for me:

1. Have a plan. Know what you have to do. Understand the math. Understand the WOE. Track and post.
2. Have the support of those around you. Engage them in your success.
3. Commit. Except lousy days. Don't accept them. Make the following day perfect. Make every WEEK a success.

It's depressing at times. The mountain looks so high. And yet, when looking back, it wasn't so bad. Just settle in for the long haul but focus on making each WEEK a good week.

Good luck. This site is full of people who were successful. It is possible. Rely on people here.

There is soo much experience and knowledge here.

Vowder

Sunny_Bunny_

I thought these links might help you to hang on when times get tough over the next year.
Here are 3 posts from members after staying on course with low carb for 1 year. Including my own 1 year update.
I hope these help you feel encouraged and am looking forward to your 1 year update when it's time
https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/10383792/its-my-ketoversary#latest

https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/10361657/one-year-and-huge-thanks-to-all#latest

https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/10364169/one-year-ketoversary#latest

Vowder

I know this is a marathon not a sprint. I'm still in the very first phases of this. I've got another 40lbs to go to get to my "ideal" weight. I don't know if I can get there but I do know that there is room for at least another 20lbs or so. However, I know I can live well at this weight. I feel like a million bucks.

I've read Sunny_Bunny's story a few times and am inspired by it each time. Her commitment and consistency is impressive. I only hope to have her strength when the going gets tougher.

I've shared what I have done a couple of times only to encourage those folks that are impatient like I am. Dial it in, flip the switch, then head down and make it happen.

I know it is easier to keep going when the scale is showing progress and that is why I encourage and fairly aggressive approach. The tough part is going to be to keep going with the scale is not moving much.

MAKE it happen.

Life is good. Sitting here on the deck on a beautiful June morning drinking my coffee with whipping cream in it. This isn't suffering... this is living! The best part is that tomorrow I'll be a tiny little bit healthier than I am today.

Vowder

Kellryn

Vowder wrote: »

Life is good. Sitting here on the deck on a beautiful June morning drinking my coffee with whipping cream in it. This isn't suffering... this is living! The best part is that tomorrow I'll be a tiny little bit healthier than I am today.

Vowder

This is such a wonderful way to look at life, so positive!

jetsamflotsam

Sunny_Bunny_ wrote: »

I thought these links might help you to hang on when times get tough over the next year.
Here are 3 posts from members after staying on course with low carb for 1 year. Including my own 1 year update.
I hope these help you feel encouraged and am looking forward to your 1 year update when it's time
https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/10383792/its-my-ketoversary#latest

https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/10361657/one-year-and-huge-thanks-to-all#latest

https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/10364169/one-year-ketoversary#latest

I read through all three threads. Thanks!

Vowder, I agree, it's a great life. I'm going to have my eggs and bacon and cheese on a couple rye crackers (instead of a toasted bagel like I would have in my old life) and this afternoon I'm going to the marina with my family. They are going kayaking (I'll go once I've lost enough weight to fit my butt in one!) and I'm going to enjoy the sunshine and read my new Protein Power book I ordered from Amazon.

PamamaJane

jetsamflotsam wrote: »

... but I don't want to be in weight loss mode my entire 40's!!

Use all your 40's if needed and if it takes you into your 50's as well, so be it. If only I had taken control of myself at the age of 40 instead of waiting until 70. Each year you put it off is a year of your life that could have been better. For me, I could have been doing things in my 50's and 60's that I didn't do because of my weight. It kept me from learning to ski. It kept me from hiking, biking, snow shoeing, bowling. . . It kept me from getting down on the floor to play with my grandsons. I was so terribly ashamed of my weight that I would not allow my picture to be taken. I learned later that my two grandsons have baby books with pictures of their other grandma holding them, but the place for a picture of me holding them is empty. My daughter was too afraid to even suggest a picture for fear it would upset me too much. That's the kind of thing that happens if you don't spend your entire 40's in weight loss mode. It catches you and bites you.

karebear5891

For me personally, if I were to eat 50g of carbs every day, I wouldn't lose much weight. I try to get the majority of my carbs from vegetables and it makes it easy to keep it under 20g and I increase my fat intake. I do <5% carbs 20-25% protein and 75%+ fat. I feel full and satiated all the time. I'm adding salt to all my foods so I feel better and drinking tons of seltzer (my drink of choice other than coffee for the past 5 years of my life).

Panda_Poptarts

I lose ridiculously slowly.

I've lost around 30 pounds in the last year. The inches I've lost, though... seriously worth it.