This just seems wrong...discouraged

I read the newbie READ ME FIRST 2nd Edition four times. I find it pretty confusing, but I *think* I'm kind of understanding it....

What I really want to know is, "If I just mindlessly follow MFP, will it result in weight loss?"

I'm 31yo, 161 pounds (down from 170) with a goal of 150. I'm at my last ten pounds. I do not have a routine lifestyle whatsoever. Some days are very sedentary, some days I walk many miles in a hilly city. I workout (30 day shred or run 3 miles) every day.

I use a fitbit.

When I started MFP I said I have a lightly active lifestyle, but when I got the fitbit, I felt like the added exercise calories it allowed me were a lot! So I read the newbie read me first thing, and thought, "maybe I should strip this down to like I don't move much at all and just let the exercise overflow dictate close to what I should be eating."

That resulted in my exercise calories going up. And I understand why, I think...fitbit wasn't subtracting as many calories because MFP was telling it I am sedentary. Which I am...some days.

So I put it back up to lightly active. One says eat 1200, one says eat 1265 or something like that...either way:

I wear my fitbit all day and the exercise calories it gives me are huge. I feel like I must be harming myself by eating so far under what MFP is telling me too. I have to actually try to eat. I had a major problem with over eating before...my old lifestyle was constantly gaining weight. I'm 5'7 - at 160 I'm not thin. My bmi is in the low end of overweight or whatever. I feel like MFP is pushing me to eat a lot more than a regular healthy diet because I'm logging so many fitbit steps.

Feedback? Advice? Has anyone been through this before and can just tell me, "follow MFP" or "dont eat the exercise calories" or "eat half the exercise calories"...? I find the fitbit really encouraging to workout, but I freaking LOVE to eat, so I'm worried about my dieting tool letting me feel...full?

Thanks!