"if every day ...", does MFP ever get it right?
orishp
Posts: 214 Member
I'll admit, I have been eating at a calorie deficit between 700-1000 calories, which might be too low.
Based on that deficit MFP predicts I will drop 1.4-2 lbs/week, so it predicts 7-10 lbs in 5 weeks.
Of course reality is different, I have lost 14-15 lbs in 12 weeks, so just over 1 lb/week.
Could this be related to the fact that I am eating netting below BMR most days, and my metabolism may be slowing down?
If that were the case, then MFP should get it right for those of you whose metabolism is "normal" , does it?
Based on that deficit MFP predicts I will drop 1.4-2 lbs/week, so it predicts 7-10 lbs in 5 weeks.
Of course reality is different, I have lost 14-15 lbs in 12 weeks, so just over 1 lb/week.
Could this be related to the fact that I am eating netting below BMR most days, and my metabolism may be slowing down?
If that were the case, then MFP should get it right for those of you whose metabolism is "normal" , does it?
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To be perfectly honest ' i dont have a clue' lol i just like it when it says in 5 weeks you will weigh ????? Kinda keeps me motivated.
Great weight loss BTW0 -
Nope, cuz most of us dont eat the same and workout the same every day
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No you're metabolism isnt "slowing down". Starvation mode isnt a thing unless you are 0% body fat. Something to keep in mind is that MFP estimates are just that, estimates. And it has a wide variation too.
But it sounds like you are making progress, which is the more important part so keep it up!0 -
It's just a rough calculation. Even the calories listed on a item (even on the package) vary. Your sodium levels vary which cause water retention, atmospheric pressure, TOM I hate that time, bloating, etc don't you?;-), etc, etc. I'm finding out this is more of an art mixed with a bit of science, then just true numbers crunching IMO.0
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It is not the same for everyone.one lb. a week is perfectly normal.But if you are not consuming enough calories your body could go into starvation mode and not lose anything. good luck!0
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I look at that and I laugh, because I am kicking the system's *kitten*. What is says down there is okay, but In 5 weeks time I want to be under 200. I am going to be halfway there from 220 in two weeks. The program is set for me to lose 2 lbs a week. I am currently losing 3-5 lbs per week. What it predicts is irrelevant. I input information, it give me data. Forums are good help too.
I work out pretty heavy, and I eat pretty heavy. It is working for me....Seeing the scale range about 4 lbs a day is pretty nice to see (I averagely drop 3 lbs on workouts, it is pretty awesome). You see.....the website is more like.....guidelines. But conform it to your standards. It will be more accurate.0 -
No you're metabolism isnt "slowing down". Starvation mode isnt a thing unless you are 0% body fat....
wtf are you on brother? 0% body fat means you are not in 'starvation mode', it means you're dead!
I just love people throwing around terms they have no idea about. :huh:0 -
I was using hyperbole. *facepalm
But think about it this way. Why on earth would you're body, when starving, store the few calories taken in as fat instead of using them?0 -
Hasn't been accurate so far. I see it as a challenge.0
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Mine seems to be reasonably accurate... I don't complete my journal every day though so I only see it once in a while. Most of the time, if I'm near balancing my calories for the day, it gives me a predicted value that is about 1 lb/week. However, I've been losing at about 2 lbs per week so, in my case, it is underestimating. There are lots of reasons why it might over or under estimate including your calculated BMR, your non-exercise daily activity both of which are just estimates. Daily exercise calories and calories eaten for a given day will also have a large impact on the daily estimate... if you have 250 extra calories that you haven't eaten that day, it will assume that you will do that everyday for the next five weeks on top of the 500 calorie deficit (or whatever you chose when setting up your account) that is already built in.
Anyways, for me I've been seeing greater loss than predicted by MFP. I have my daily calories set to have a deficit equal to 1.2 pounds per week and I'm seeing 2 pounds per week. I eat my exercise calories back. In my case, I think the reason for the difference is that I try to underestimate my calories expended from exercise (even though I have found that the MFP numbers for exercise happen to be close for me). Also, while I put my activity level as sedentary, there are some days where I guess it really is a bit more active than that just from walking to/from the bus, going to/from meetings, etc...
But as Babymomakell has said, the biggest effect is that "most of us dont eat the same and workout the same every day " and small changes in the daily calorie balance for a given day will make large changes to the predicted weight at the end of the 5 weeks.
I don't think your BMR is likely to have decreased that much (other than from lost tissue -- hopefully mostly fat!!) Are you eating a good amount of protein? If you're worried about BMR slowing down, make sure you are getting enough protein and do some resistance training and your BMR shouldn't be affected too much. Cheers!0 -
For the first couple of months mine was pretty accurate. Now, it's not even close. I've been stuck at the same weight for about 8 weeks now and that "if every day..." number makes me want to scratch my eyes out.0
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I've never really paid attention to it.0
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I was using hyperbole. *facepalm
But think about it this way. Why on earth would you're body, when starving, store the few calories taken in as fat instead of using them?
Because it's worried that things will get even worse... Certainly it will use some or most of it but, at very low body fat %, it would likely start cannibalizing muscle (to use as a source of energy and also greatly reduce calorie requirements) before getting rid of the remainder of the fat... I'm not an expert on human metabolism though (bacterial metabolism is my area of research). You're right in general, though, as this would only be a major issue at low body fat % and serious caloric deficits.
Even at higher body fat %, some muscle will be lost without enough protein intake (and ideally some stimulus in terms of resistance training). Muscles are relatively non-essential compared to organs so they will be used if the organs aren't able to get their amino acid requirements from external sources.0 -
I was using hyperbole. *facepalm
But think about it this way. Why on earth would you're body, when starving, store the few calories taken in as fat instead of using them?
The storing of the fat is true in all mammals. Whales, sea lions, bears and tigers, apes, and humans. It is just like that. why else do you think bears can hibernate for 4 months?0 -
as j_wilson says - it's data, and how you interpret it.
For me MFP slightly overestimates calories and grossly underestimates burn calculations.
For instance, I'm on 1280 target per day which targets a 2lb loss per week.
For accuracy's sake I weigh and measure *everything* down to about 3 gram tolerance, and include things like cooking sprays and vinegars that go on salad etc.
I don't use an HRM, but I do use a sports GPS tracker for outdoor exercise, and use the gym machine workout numbers for cardio. MFP underestimates these burn quantities massively (like 30% off on cardio machines and 100% off on some outdoor exercise). My burn counts from the machines and the GPS are always higher than MFP has allowed.
In the past 10 days I'm down 8lb - this is matched by previous 'intense' periods where I wanted a sustained drop - with a 1280cal diet + 60 minutes cardio per day the lb come off quicker than MFP is forecasting. So even with me inflating the burn figures above what MFP is indicating, I'm still *way* ahead of plan.
Now I usually lose in fits and starts, but the long term trend from previous 'intense' drop months is that I would lose 25lb in 35 days (5 weeks) which is more than twice the loss predicted. So either I'm burning at a rate far higher than MFP is estimating, my BMR is way higher than expected, or the calorie calculation doesn't work for me.0 -
I was using hyperbole. *facepalm
But think about it this way. Why on earth would you're body, when starving, store the few calories taken in as fat instead of using them?
The storing of the fat is true in all mammals. Whales, sea lions, bears and tigers, apes, and humans. It is just like that. why else do you think bears can hibernate for 4 months?
Yes, fat is not only used for energy storage but also used structurally (cell membranes for example), for insulation and padding, both thermal and electrical, and for solubilizing essential fat soluble vitamins, as well as a source of fatty acids needed for proper organ function.0 -
I don't know if they ever get it right, but I ate more today than ever before, about 1400 plus calories, and it said I would weigh lower than it has ever said before. Of course i won't eat the same tomorrow, but I thought it was interesting on the first day that I didn't starve myself, MfP said I would weight the least in five weeks.
Proves to me that we don't have to eat too little to lose weight.0 -
I'll admit, I have been eating at a calorie deficit between 700-1000 calories, which might be too low.
I'm on a doctor-supervised 1500 calorie a day deficit (eating back anything I burn exercising) for a net 10,500 (3 lb) per week deficit.
I work out at least 300 calories/day and my BMR (measured) is 3200, so I'm eating an average 2000 calories/day. In reality, though, I'm eating around 1600, saving 2400 calories to add to a "cheat day" at the end of the week.
It works out well for me... and I look forward to the end of the week!0 -
I don't know if they ever get it right, but I ate more today than ever before, about 1400 plus calories, and it said I would weigh lower than it has ever said before. Of course i won't eat the same tomorrow, but I thought it was interesting on the first day that I didn't starve myself, MfP said I would weight the least in five weeks.
Proves to me that we don't have to eat too little to lose weight.
I havent noticed this, i thought it was just a mere calorie deficit thing, so the less calories you eat , the lower the prediction.
Thanks for all the feedback, nice to know that it overestimates for some lucky people. I too try to be as accurate as possible, cals burned are from an HRM, etc... Still it is far off and like moyzilla said,
LOLmakes me want to scratch my eyes out0 -
No you're metabolism isnt "slowing down". Starvation mode isnt a thing unless you are 0% body fat. Something to keep in mind is that MFP estimates are just that, estimates. And it has a wide variation too.
But it sounds like you are making progress, which is the more important part so keep it up!
Quoted for absolute truth.
Perhaps you are holding onto water - I dropped 2lbs in 2 days this week and I think it was to do with my water. Or you could be bloating leading up to your period? Try keeping track of your measurements too - you can lose inches but not drop a pound! It's weird haha xx0 -
I don't know if they ever get it right, but I ate more today than ever before, about 1400 plus calories, and it said I would weigh lower than it has ever said before. Of course i won't eat the same tomorrow, but I thought it was interesting on the first day that I didn't starve myself, MfP said I would weight the least in five weeks.
Proves to me that we don't have to eat too little to lose weight.
Proves to me that the system is botched
How could eating MORE make you lose more weight? It makes no scientific sense one little bit.0 -
This!!Nope, cuz most of us dont eat the same and workout the same every day
No 2 days are ever really the same. So I exercise a load one day and eat ok and it says in 5 weeks I'll be 129lb woohoo!!
But then next day I have a rest day and eat 200 over cos I have some wine and then it says I'll be 134lb - hmmm
Better it says if every week was like the last 7 days then you be likely be...............
Much more useful.0 -
For the first couple of months mine was pretty accurate. Now, it's not even close. I've been stuck at the same weight for about 8 weeks now and that "if every day..." number makes me want to scratch my eyes out.
Exactly my thoughts. Isn't it maddeningly frustrating? I scream at the line "If every day were like today you would weigh 106lb in 5 weeks" as it is a total load of rubbish.
I have been doing this for a looooong time, and I am nowhere near that!!!! :noway:
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For the first couple of months mine was pretty accurate. Now, it's not even close. I've been stuck at the same weight for about 8 weeks now and that "if every day..." number makes me want to scratch my eyes out.
What she said! :S0 -
I don't know if they ever get it right, but I ate more today than ever before, about 1400 plus calories, and it said I would weigh lower than it has ever said before. Of course i won't eat the same tomorrow, but I thought it was interesting on the first day that I didn't starve myself, MfP said I would weight the least in five weeks.
Proves to me that we don't have to eat too little to lose weight.
Proves to me that the system is botched
How could eating MORE make you lose more weight? It makes no scientific sense one little bit.
It is true "eat more to weigh less." Eat more of the right foods. You will gain if you eat more McDs or sweets, etc, but if you eat more healthy foods (skip the processed), you will see weight decrease. Now, I'm not saying you should gorge yourself. Eat healthy until you are full. That is the general idea.0 -
Every single time someone asks this, I look at their diary and they do NOT eat the same amount every day. It's like no one understands the word "if".0
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It has been accurate for me. I even went on vacation and didn't track for 5 weeks... When I logged back in after I got home and weighed-in, my weight was what mfp predicted. If your numbers aren't matching up, you may need to look at what you are entering into the database for mfp to make its calculations.0
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No you're metabolism isnt "slowing down". Starvation mode isnt a thing unless you are 0% body fat....
wtf are you on brother? 0% body fat means you are not in 'starvation mode', it means you're dead!
I just love people throwing around terms they have no idea about. :huh:
^^^THIS. lol. I was so confused by what he said. I just knew he couldn't be serious0 -
It's based on eating the same calorie amount every day, even as little as 100 or 200 extra calories can make a big difference in the number it gives you.
I personally hope I lose more than MFP estimates... taking 5 weeks to lose 2.8 kg seems pretty depressing.![:\](https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/resources/emoji/confused.png ":\")
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Every single time someone asks this, I look at their diary and they do NOT eat the same amount every day. It's like no one understands the word "if".
well, if you look at my net calories, they are pretty consistent, I have been upping a bit to my BMR level, but other than that I have been pretty consistent since may.
I don't do the same workout every day, so the amount of calories I consume needs to be adjusted accordingly.0
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