Help with TDEE

I'm on the fence as to which calculation to figure my TDEE off of. I prefer to stay mostly consistent rather than eat back exercise calories. My BMR for height/weight is 1600. During the day I'm incredibly sedentary between commuting for 90 minutes and a desk job. I try to get out most days to stretch and walk during lunch (30 minutes). Just started 1/2 marathon training and my evenings are very busy between two young kids and riding/training horses. It is a rarity to sit on the couch and watch TV outside of the news!

Would you consider me to be moderate of heavy exercise? My inclination is towards moderate since the evenings are a general lifestyle that I've long been adapted to. But I don't want to undereat and not loose either. If I'm truely hungry I eat, but get nervous when calories start to creep up towards 1700/1800. By TDEE my daily needs are 2480 at moderate and 2760 at heavy exercise. Goal is to loose 30 pounds.

Thoughts? Am I on the right track?