Predicting Half Marathon Time

natalie412
natalie412 Posts: 1,039 Member
in Fitness and Exercise
Running my first half on September 29th. According the mcmillianrunning.com, since I have run a 5 mile race in 48 minutes (flat course, though), I should be able to do the half in 2:14. Initially I was shooting for under 2:30, but I just ran 12 miles today in 2:14. That was at an easy training pace. At no point was I breathing heavily, except for going up hills. My legs ache at the end, but that is all. I have been able to run consistently at around 11:18 per mile for all my long runs lately, even as I increase the distance, and usually run the last mile or so faster. Shorter runs (4-6 miles) I usually am in the low 10 min range.

The race course is somewhat hilly - but similar to what I run normally. I am thinking 2:14 is actually doable - maybe even better.

I am way ahead on training, and plan to possible run the actual course sometime in the next 2 weeks. I may even get a 14 or 15 mile run before it. I will taper before the race though.

Anyway, do you think I can do better than 2:14?

Replies

  • DG_Allen
    DG_Allen Posts: 219 Member
    It's a race right? You're going to run the last few miles like your life depended on it and you're going to blow 2:14 away! You should be pretty dead at the end of that race. You can totally do it!
  • neverstray
    neverstray Posts: 3,845 Member
    Breaking 2 hours is pretty tough for most. I'd say stick with 2:14. So many people put themselves in the wrong time and it sucks having to pass and dodge thousands of people. F they would just put themselves in the 2.5 or 3 hour category and stay out o the faster people's way, that would be awesome.
  • AlessisMore
    AlessisMore Posts: 179 Member
    Start out conservatively. You won't want to--but it's important to hold back. If you're well trained--and it sounds like you are--you can put on the gas for the 2nd half. I have found MacMIllan predictor pretty accurate. But If you're feeling good and the running gods are on your side, you might be able to blow away 2:14. Don't go out too fast!!!!!!!
  • amandask66
    amandask66 Posts: 38 Member
    Yes! I think you can and will do better than 2:14. Just don't go out too fast. Also if you can get in a 14 or 15 mile run before I think that is a HUGE help mentally. Alot of people say that you don't need to run that far training for a half but I think the mental boost that it gives you is worth it. Just make sure that you taper for the race. I'm guessing between 2:05 and 2:12 for your result :)
  • sharfisher
    sharfisher Posts: 48 Member
    check out mcmillanrunning.com for their calculator. If you have a recent 5k or 10k race time it predicts finish times (and training paces) for all other distances. 2:14 training run is hot diggity.
  • DiannaMoorer
    DiannaMoorer Posts: 783 Member
    You are going to do really well in this race! Good luck! People do tend to do better in races than in practice. So I would think you will be just fine. Just don't start out too fast in the beginning. I've done a half a few years ago and am getting ready to run another one in January.
  • reggie2run
    reggie2run Posts: 477 Member
    I think you'll do great. Like DiannaMoorer said, people tend to do better in races than in practice. And look at your running history. It speaks for itself. You can do it. So I also think you can break 2:14. Good luck!!

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