TDEE MFP Deficit

So do you think I should set my MFP goals manually? Is that what most people are doing?

It's personal preference. Since I know my body fat (which I highly suggest doing) I use the katch mcardle formula and include my activity as part of my tdee. Even if you use MFP, i would suggest including exercise as part of your TDEE if it's consistent. So if you workout 5-6 days a week, set your account to active, alter your macro's to 35% carbs, 40% protein and 25% fats and don't worry about exercise calories. Gotta feed your body on non workout days just as much as on workout days.

I recently switched to calculating my calorie goal based on my TDEE with exercise factored in, but I do still find my HRM extremely useful. It's very motivating. The model I have (the polar ft4) tells you when you're within your target heart rate, and I do still find it useful to know how many calories I burned in a workout. (Whether or not I need to step it up a notch).

I would not set my calorie goal lower than your BMR of 2006 for one. When you are setting things manually you don't have to worry what MFP says you will lose per week or about setting your TDEE on MFP just put in your calorie goal. The thing you do have to decide is do you want to have a cut from your TDEE and then don't eat back your exercise calories or a goal that has you eating back your exercise calories. The way you have calculated you would set your calorie goal at 2407. Generally ignore what MFP tells you to eat back and ignore what it says you will weigh in 5 weeks. However if you exercise alot more than what you used to determine your TDEE you actually may need to add some calories in for those day. You don't want to go under your net BMR. Calories eaten - exercise calories should be above your BMR. I think this is a good place to start. It isn't really very realistic to feel like there won't be a need for readjustment. All of these calculations are estimates.

The problem with eating below your BMR is you will eventually stall out. You want to increase your metabolism not decrease it. Too low of a calorie goal may decrease your metabolism. One of my favorite ways to lose weight is to figure out what you would eat to maintain your weight at your ideal weight and eat that amount of calories however when you have too much to lose it will recommend an amount below your BMR so you have to pick an interim goal weight to achieve then later adjust down to your goal weight maintainance calories. The beauty of this method is by the time you achieve your goal weight you already are used to eating the right amount to maintain your ideal weight. However it doesn't gaurantee 2 lbs per week.

Think of this process like trying to find that sweet spot to bat the ball in baseball. It isn't at the end of the bat (TDEE) and it isn't lower than where you place your hands (BMR). It is somewhere in between and it takes a bit of trial and error to find your own sweet spot. As you lose your BMR and TDEE will change so you will need to adjust to that as well as you near your goal. One batting coach may tell you to put your hands higher another lower (different calculators will give you different estimates of your BMR) and some couches may tell you to use a shorter or longer bat (different calculators will give you different estimates of your TDEE). This is life. You have to make the best decision you can at first, give it at least 3 weeks try and if it isn't working adjust a bit. Frankly consistent singles are just as good as doubles, triples and home runs. The nice thing about consistent singles (losing slower) is that you are more likely to keep it off and it gives your body a chance to adjust to your new weight. It gives the exercise a chance to keep you toned. It is great to get input from the experts but in the end you have to find the right ones for you.

It doesn't make sense to adjust too soon since it takes your body a while to adjust to the changes you have made. Be patient. It doesn't make sense to keep changing too many things at a time since one may be helping another hurting and you won't know which. Some things will always help but that is another discussion.