How accurate are weight loss predictions?

jess_steich7
jess_steich7 Posts: 58
in Health and Weight Loss
Hi everyone,

For those of you that have had success with using MFP I am wondering how accurate are the weight loss predictions it states after each food entry? If I stick to my daily calorie range, even if I have a slice of pizza or something, can I really expect to weigh _____ pounds in 5 weeks?

Thanks in advance for the help.

Replies

  • Madelinew22
    Madelinew22 Posts: 289
    very inaccurate ive seen it say 114 in 5 weeks and ive maintained it saying that for a week sometimes and i wont even lose a pound, my thing is actually saying ill be 10 pounds lighter like everyday for the last month and i gained weight recently
  • lkplibra
    lkplibra Posts: 147 Member
    It lies...bad
  • isitsororo
    isitsororo Posts: 116
    This is something I'm wondering about as well, because the weight loss predictions seem extremely optimistic to me. 110-106 lbs in 5 weeks? Yeah right.
  • Pebble321
    Pebble321 Posts: 6,423 Member
    In my experience not too far off - but that assumes you have set a realistic weight loss goal and you are eating around about your goal calorie.

    I tracked them for a while last year and found they were pretty close somedays, but not others. The days where I got a wildly inaccurate prediction was always one where I ate very little or exercised a lot so my calories were low. As I wasn't going to do that every day for 5 weeks, I didn't expect it to come true!
  • Simone_King
    Simone_King Posts: 467 Member
    The site doesn't take into count of plateaus. So, watch that.

    Other than that I found it to be true.

    The only time I didn't get to that weight was when, for some reason, I cheated.
  • Cheryl_Catrair
    Cheryl_Catrair Posts: 61 Member
    My experience has been that it's very accurate but keep in mind that it's saying if you do the same thing EVERY day for 5 weeks that is what you'll weigh. If you go over in calories for a total of 5 days over that 5 week period you won't lose that amount.
  • ihad
    ihad Posts: 7,463 Member
    I've been pretty consistent with my logging and net calories for a year, and it's been reasonably accurate over the long run.
  • DebbieLyn63
    DebbieLyn63 Posts: 2,654 Member
    I checked 5 weeks ago and it said I should weigh 199 today. NOT. Try 206. Maybe in ANOTHER 5 weeks I will weigh that much!
  • gaylynn35
    gaylynn35 Posts: 854 Member
    It is accurate if you eat the same everyday for 5 weeks and burn the same calories everyday for 5 weeks.

    I have found that the predictions in my case are taking closer to 12 weeks to be true.

    So, I wouldn't read a whole lot into it or you are going to be very disappointed.
  • Lookingforfitat40
    Lookingforfitat40 Posts: 61
    It's only as accurate as the entries it bases its mathematical predictions on.
  • ecw3780
    ecw3780 Posts: 608 Member
    Such a joke. It takes what your deficit was that day and factors it out over 5 weeks. It isn't factoring in what the rest of your week was like, which you HAVE to take into account. If you have a deficit of 500 calories that one day, but 200 calories each day the rest of the week, you will only loose about 2.5 pounds over 5 weeks, instead of the 5 pounds it is telling you that specific day. Keep in mind the "if every day was like today" notice.
  • pickledginger
    pickledginger Posts: 172
    For some people, they're perfect. For most people, they're pretty close -- because they make assumptions based on the average metabolism. For other people, they are wildly inaccurate -- because they are based on the average metabolism. For me, they are downright hilarious.
  • freido90
    freido90 Posts: 4
    I have found it to be pretty accurate. Once I started tweaking the diet and staying in between my limit I lost weight. November 2012 I was 176lbs, 24% body fat. Now February 2013 I'm 164lbs, 13% body fat. I wasn't able to workout until the beginning of this month so all of that weight I lost was from diet. Past three weeks has been diet and exercise.

    When you complete a log it says "if you eat like his you'll lose X in 5 weeks". That means if you ate that way for 5 weeks straight. Mine was different day to day bc i ate different things everyday and I still lost it. It's just a guideline really.

    Also it's more about the quality of food too bc not all calories are created equal. X calories of cake is not the same as x calories of vegetable. I avoided drive threw windows, sugary treats and drinks, packaged crap... Etc. mainly just eat stuff closest to the natural source.. Fresh or frozen fruits and vegetables, lean meat, sweet potato etc. sticking to good healthy foods v dieting is the way to go and my fitness pal is pretty good with assistance. Bad fats store fat, good fats burn fat. So stuff like that pizza you mentioned will only hurt you.
  • spikeithard
    spikeithard Posts: 89 Member
    If you stay withing you caloric needs for the day and are eating a proper breakdown of your bodies needs for proteins, fats (good fats) and carbohydrates then it should work fine.

    My protein needs are really low on this app. says something like 120 grams a day.. haha. I need over 200 a day for my muscle size.

    just cant eat empty calorie foods like chips and pizza and 'as long as I hit my goal for the day I am' think you will have success

    Kapeesh?
  • thecakelocker
    thecakelocker Posts: 407 Member
    It once said I would weigh 0 pounds in 5 weeks.
  • vmekash
    vmekash Posts: 422 Member
    It never dawned on me to check the accuracy. I just use it as a guide to let me know whether I'm on the right track. As in, did I have a good day or a bad one in terms of my calorie goal for the day.

    In fact, I'd go so far as to say that I think most folks over think this entire program. Too many carbs? Not enough protein? Too much salt? What about iron?

    I just think that if I am doing better than I was when I was fat, then I will continue to get better results than when I was fat. Easy peazy.

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