Do 3500 calories lost = 1 pound lost over long haul?

I recorded the following in a spreadsheet. I set my daily basic calorie need (BMR) to 2500 calories. Charts say my daily BMR should have been higher at the beginning of course and gradually goes down as I lose the weight. The BMR calculator said it should be just over 3000 calories when I started and reduce 7 calories for every pound I lose. But I did not use that, I used 2500 calories in my calculation. To be really accurate for the BMR I think I would need to get that measured more accurately just for me ( I know there are ways).

Deduced the calories I actually ate and added the exercise. for example, 2500 - 2000 calories eaten - 1100 calories exercise = 1600 calories excess. There are 3500 calories in a pound. It worked out very close over a month period to what I actually did lose. I was quite surprised.

Before I did this I thought that the numbers were actually quite a bit different, but when taking all numbers into account it is very close. That means (for me at least) that losing weight is really a numbers game. But if you take the calculated BMR into account my monthly loss should have been about 4 more pounds. Now I am motivated to get a more accurate reading on my BMR. I am thinking maybe on average I might have been off by 400-500 calories in my calories consumption estimates to account for this differential.

thanks for your feedback. BUT what I was asking for is YOUR actual results, not your opinion.

You keep saying this and it's a bit rude.

When someone is asking for SPECIFIC information posting things that have no relation to that information is pointless as well as a waste of time. No one is forcing people to post unrelated information so there is no reason to take offence, just don't post in the thread.

I've been tracking close to 5 months and my BMR is around 1650. I have had some issues with the accuracy when I WAS doing more exercise - likely due to the increase in TDEE, over/underestimations of exercise calories, muscle growth etc.. This was one of the reasons I decided NOT to do excessive working out. I walk 30 minutes 5 days/week though I am going to try again with the workouts starting Monday.

On 10/13/12 I was at 194.8 my last weight on 11/10/12 was 192.4 - I was playing with calories this month so my loss wasn't what it could have been BUT in that period I ate @49601calories which works out to about 1710 /day. This is MORE than my BMR - which it is recommended that you eat. Your method above is not clear to me, should you not be calculating based on your TDEE? For instance, My TDEE is roughly...2054, so carrying that over to the 29 days that I have calculated in this example should have put me at 2.4lbs loss 59566 calories consumed giving me a deficit of about 9965. If I divide that by 3500 then I see that my 2.4 lb loss is basically PERFECTLY ON THE BUTTON (by calculations should have been 2.8) and I know that I should be eating LESS calories to maximize my loss (which is why I have dropped again this week).

So you are right, it IS a numbers game and this highlights why its SO important to know your TDEE and also how you can spot check your numbers

You're not going to find what you are looking for. As has already been mentioned, short of some very controlled and very pricey testing done in a clinic, you have no way to know your actual BMR, actual caloric intake, and actual calories burned. You also have to consider body composition and water retention on top of all that. There are just too many variables that are near impossible to nail down accurately to say for sure. At the end of the day, you have to adjust the numbers that you are using to get the amount of weight loss you want to achieve.

I have MFP setup for a 1.5 lb/week loss right now but I am actually losing more like 2-2.5 lb/week. I tend to overestimate my food and underestimate my exercise so it's not surprising at all that I lose more than I should. I also expect that to slow down now that I have changed my workouts as I should be putting on more muscle.

The point is, if you are not losing as fast as you like, eat less or exercise more. Or try something different if you don't like the results. Do more heavy weight and less cardio or vice versa. As long as you keep losing and getting fit, what's the rush? This is a lifetime commitment, not something that you forget about once you get to your goal weight.

This is a great topic and I will have a closer look at my numbers for the last 6 months and see if it works out for me. I got my LBM measured today and will use that to calculate BMR, TDEE etc more accurately - I would love to be able to say 3500cal = 1lbs loss, but I am a sceptic and doubt that it really is THAT easy :-)

Will revert back with numbers, just posting to bump really - LOL

I've recorded cals in and out since April (excepting a few weeks). Bumping and I'll be back later to let you know...

Back when I was behaving, I was losing what MFP estimated I would be losing in spite of doing a lot of estimating.

That said, there are lot of reasons why someone wouldn't lose the amount MFP estimates, even if they are recording everything accurately. Someone might have a slower-than-normal metabolism, so their calculations will be off. Another reason is that you don't only lose fat when you restrict calories; you lose muscle mass as well (strength training helps reduce the loss, but you can't usually* build muscles in a caloric deficit). Muscles do not have the same number of calories per pound, so that will throw the numbers off.

*The very obese and total beginners to strength training can lose fat and gain muscle simultaneously, but the effect is temporary.