Should I change my calorie goals?

I tried to look at your diary but its not open to the public, anyways my thought is your netting too low. You say you net around 1200, but according to your TDEE -20% you should be netting around 1800. I know its super scary to think you need to eat more, I certainly was! But you need to up those cals so your body will let go of that fat! hope that helps

Ooops, sorry, diary is open now :-)

I think in all those numbers and calculations I forgot that the TDEE is what I should be netting, not eating. 1800 a day NET seems crazy!! I have tried before to increase my calories and didn't have much luck but I never really stuck with it for that long... maybe I didn't give it enough time??

It's really difficult to judge how successful a change in dietary habits is on your weight goals over a period of less than 4 weeks or so, to rule out minor spikes from sodium, muscle fatigue causing water retention, and hormonal changes.

Work at it as best you can for a month or so and see where you are. Adjust as necessary. We're rooting for you.

2008-2010: "Is my TDEE wrong?" "Am I eating enough?" "Am I eating too much?" "Is that water weight or am I losing too fast?" "Is my TDEE wrong?"
2013: "I love my Ki Fit, it stops me from second-guessing myself all the time."

The thing with calculators is they might be off because of several things (such as activity level not being correct). With time and some math, you can work out your average weekly weight loss over a month, your average weekly deficit over a month, and compare the two seeing if they add up (assuming no water weight fluctuations).

As far as TDEE is concerned, that is an average that includes all activity including exercise. Eating below your TDEE and above your TDEE can be attributed to using the MFP method where instead of X calories every day, you get Y calories per day plus Z exercise calories. If the deficit from both methods is the same, if you average out MFP goal calories + daily deficit calories + exercise calories, over a week, you should reach a number similar to your TDEE.

As you have averaged out your daily intake over a month and you say it varies, I'm assuming you are using the MFP method. Using the number you have stated:

2,232 * 0.2 * 7 / 3,500 = 0.8928 lb per week (TDEE - 20%)
2,232 - 500 = 1,732 calories per day (1 lb per week)
5 / 4 * 3500 / 7 = deficit of 625 calories per day (5 lb in 4 weeks)
5 / 4 = 1.25 lb per week
2,232 - 625 = 1,607 calories per day (1.25 lb per week)
1 - (1,607 / 2,232) = 0.28 (i.e. TDEE - 28%)

As you weigh 165 lb and are losing less than 1% of your body weight per week, and on average you are eating above your BMR every day, assuming your progress isn't inaccurate because of weight fluctuations it is up to you whether you change your goal or not.

Since you can't set a weekly goal on MFP of 1.25 lb, the next one up is 1.5 lb which would mean eating less. The next one down is 0.5 lb which would mean eating more. If you are using the TDEE method, your deficit appears to currently be 28% and a 20% deficit would give you an approximate 0.9 lb loss per week.

One thing the math does say though, and will depend on reproducibility over a longer time frame, is that your TDEE appears to be pretty accurate and your weight loss appears to be as expected for your deficit. If the same is true for different deficits, base your calorie goal on how much weight you are happy to lose each week and how much food you are willing/unwilling to eat.

If you are happy with your rate of progress, stick with what you're doing.