Adjusting calories

I am starting to use MFP again after stopping due to a move. The first time around (about 8 months ago) I lost 6 lbs the first week, and then 1-2 lbs a week after that. This time around I've been losing between 2-3 lbs per week for three weeks. I've read that if you're significantly overweight it's not uncommon to lose more when you start because of the drastic diet change. I was 229 when I started the first time and 224 this time and I'm 5'7". So "obese" but I'm not sure how much that applies and for how long. I imagine it applies to me based on eating habits though, I was at a point where I was eating take out about 10 meals and 4-5 sodas a day. Now it's down to 3-4 take out meals in much smaller portions as well as usually less than 1 soda per day. Also cut out almost all of the alcohol which was quite a bit too.

I've also read that you don't want to lose faster 2lbs/week for many reasons, the primary ones that I am concerned with would be my skin not shrinking down along with my size and losing muscle. I'm a math person and so the variables with this kill me. I try to do what I can to track everything correctly. I measure out exactly everything I make for myself, but there's of course 3-4 times a week the hubby wants to eat out. For one place he especially loves I have no idea what the calories are, we just guessed (I always get the same thing). For the others I know it's not always prepared exactly the same so there's obviously variables there as well. I wear a body media fit arm band to track my calories rather than using guesstimates based on activities.

I'm down to 1,200/day per MFP and usually end up over it, about 1,400 daily average at the end of the week for the past three weeks. I didn't like trying to guess the loss and where I'll be in 6 months so I made a spreadsheet to estimate how much I should be losing based on still having 1,200/day average calories so right now it would be 1.9 lbs.

So my questions would be:
-At what point do I start worrying about the greater than 2lb week loss considering my weight/diet changes?
-When that does occur, do I just add the calorie equivalent to the loss over recommended from the previous week? For example if I lost 2.6 and per calculator should only lose 1.9 eat 2,450 more calories the following week and see where that gets me.

Again, while I'm mostly happy to be losing more than the 2lbs/week, I also know that I need to lose these pounds the right way and would rather it take longer and lose less muscle and have my skin stretch down along with my fat. But if I can keep this up for a while I'm definitely good with that.