CDC projects diabetes to double or triple by 2050
ninerbuff
Posts: 48,961 Member
And I believe them. Just from what I've personally experienced with what's been going on in my area (and it's considered one of the "leaner" population), it seems headed that way.
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http://www.cdc.gov/media/pressrel/2010/r101022.html
As many as 1 in 3 U.S. adults could have diabetes by 2050 if current trends continue, according to a new analysis from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
One in 10 U.S. adults has diabetes now. The prevalence is expected to rise sharply over the next 40 years due to an aging population more likely to develop type 2 diabetes, increases in minority groups that are at high risk for type 2 diabetes, and people with diabetes living longer, according to CDC projections published in the journal Population Health Metrics. Because the study factored in aging, minority populations and lifespan, the projections are higher than previous estimates.
The report predicts that the number of new diabetes cases each year will increase from 8 per 1,000 people in 2008, to 15 per 1,000 in 2050.
The report estimates that the number of Americans with diabetes will range from 1 in 3 to 1 in 5 by 2050. That range reflects differing assumptions about how many people will develop diabetes, and how long they will live after developing the disease.
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Replies
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I believe it too. It seems that moderately overweight has gotten to be the new thin and being obese is the norm. It's sad that our love of junk food and technology has led us to this point.0
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We had a free seminar on it yesterday at my Wellness Center and was surprised to see how many people were there. Room held 100 people and it was full.
A.C.E. Certified Personal and Group Fitness Trainer
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Been in fitness for 30 years and have studied kinesiology and nutrition0 -
and the fact it is preventable is what is most disturbing.
It is one thing to have type 1...but type 2 is all about lifestyle. It's a shame really.0 -
There are several people I know who ate right and exercise regularly and/or all the time. My ex was diagnosed with type II, he was thin (not skinny fat), trained five/six times a week and runs at minimum five marathons a year.0
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Diabetes can happen with just about anyone. People who have parents with type 2 can acquire it because their risk rises 3 fold vs general population. As of now 90%-95% of diabetes cases are type 2. What's really sad is that some may have it and not even know it.There are several people I know who ate right and exercise regularly and/or all the time. My ex was diagnosed with type II, he was thin (not skinny fat), trained five/six times a week and runs at minimum five marathons a year.
A.C.E. Certified Personal and Group Fitness Trainer
IDEA Fitness member
Kickboxing Certified Instructor
Been in fitness for 30 years and have studied kinesiology and nutrition0 -
So we're three years on from that projection, how is http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/ndep/ wokring, if at all ? Is there any screening program for say the over-40s to catch them before the nasty effects of diabetes are noticed.0
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There are several people I know who ate right and exercise regularly and/or all the time. My ex was diagnosed with type II, he was thin (not skinny fat), trained five/six times a week and runs at minimum five marathons a year.
but the overwhelming majority is overweight or obese0 -
So we're three years on from that projection, how is http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/ndep/ wokring, if at all ? Is there any screening program for say the over-40s to catch them before the nasty effects of diabetes are noticed.
I wonder whether cost is an issue with this. Not the diagnosing, but the long term treatment. Not sure about the US, but certainly the UK and Australia are not far behind those numbers and they have at least a partial national health system. An increase like that in diabetes patients could easily bankrupt the entire system.0 -
and the fact it is preventable is what is most disturbing.
It is one thing to have type 1...but type 2 is all about lifestyle. It's a shame really.
T2D is not always preventable. It has a strong genetic component and the research indicates a person predisposed to this condition, may be able to put off the start of it but whether or not it the actual onset of the disease can actually be stopped is a subject of hot debate.
I didn't know of my risk factors because of the shame involved & older family members kept silent about their diagnoses. At 44 yrs old I became T2 diabetic. Women who have had gestational diabetes have an increased chance of getting it also (me) and coupled with the fact that my father's entire family (parents and siblings) are all diabetic, I was a shoe-in.
bloodsugar101.com has great info, click on the link called 'The Patterns in Which Diabetes Develops' after that, if you're still interested, click on the link called 'you didn't eat your way to diabetes'. It was an eye opener for me :ohwell:0 -
Yes, in some cases it's preventable, some cases it's not. Regardless of whether or not you have a family history of diabetes, it is of the utmost important to be active, eat a nutritious diet, maintain a healthy weight and exercise. It's also probably in your best interest, especially if you have a family history of diabetes, to visit your doctor annually and undergo a screening.
Part of my motivation for losing weight and becoming interested in exercise was the prevalence of diabetes in my family. I've lost several family members because of diabetes (albeit poorly managed) and it is not something to fool around with. Please, people, take care of yourselves.0 -
Diabetes can happen with just about anyone. People who have parents with type 2 can acquire it because their risk rises 3 fold vs general population. As of now 90%-95% of diabetes cases are type 2. What's really sad is that some may have it and not even know it.There are several people I know who ate right and exercise regularly and/or all the time. My ex was diagnosed with type II, he was thin (not skinny fat), trained five/six times a week and runs at minimum five marathons a year.
YES. I was one of them....
The reason is that blood sugar dysregulation begins slowly over the course of years (we're talking T2D here, not T1D, LADA, MODY, I,II or II) the criteria is so high that by the time one reaches the threshold, it is a permanent situation.
The criteria has been lowered recently but not recent enough to help me. The fact is that a fasting blood sugar of over 100 requires investigation and has been termed 'pre-diabetes'...not sure why since it's a very high likely hood that the progression to a T2 dx is only a matter of time.
The progression of the disease & cessation of complications is a sure thing. All one has to do is keep postprandial blood sugars below 140 mg/dl 1 hour post meals, below 120 mg/dl 2 hours post and random BG's around 100 mg/dl. It's the time spent at higher than 140 mg/dl that causes organ damage though some folks can be more sensitive and need to watch for spikes.
How is this done?...through medication, insulin supplementation, exercise and abstaining from sugars & starches.
How much?...it's different for everyone.
I myself cannot tolerate more than 10 g of carb from anything I eat. Even after losing 28#'s and weight training, having an active job (dog walker) and on Metformin. If I do, my BG goes up and takes several days to come back down.0 -
So we're three years on from that projection, how is http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/ndep/ wokring, if at all ? Is there any screening program for say the over-40s to catch them before the nasty effects of diabetes are noticed.
I wonder whether cost is an issue with this. Not the diagnosing, but the long term treatment. Not sure about the US, but certainly the UK and Australia are not far behind those numbers and they have at least a partial national health system. An increase like that in diabetes patients could easily bankrupt the entire system.
Education is the issue. That and the fact that the criteria for diagnosis is so high that by the time an official diagnosis is reached and a patient is no longer considered subclinical but clinical, blood sugars have reached 180 mg/dl or higher.
By this time, the longer one spends at this threshold, the more chances increase for organ damage. In my own case, I noticed subtle changes over the course of 17 years but never put 2 and 2 together.
Finally ended up at the doctor's office and it all came crashing in on me with a casual blood sugar of 260 mg/dl, I already had the beginning of several complications but never knew it.0 -
There are several people I know who ate right and exercise regularly and/or all the time. My ex was diagnosed with type II, he was thin (not skinny fat), trained five/six times a week and runs at minimum five marathons a year.
but the overwhelming majority is overweight or obese
The current research indicates that the excess weight precedes the actual T2D. It's a symptom of blood sugar dysfunction....also, to be fair, thin people who develop diabetes may have LADA. This is an autoimmune or can be caused by illness, cortisone use too I think.
The point is, it's a different issue and has features of both T2D and T1D and DEFINITELY cannot be prevented & in some cases, there's no clue that this can happen.
ETA: bloodsugar101.com0 -
So we're three years on from that projection, how is http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/ndep/ wokring, if at all ? Is there any screening program for say the over-40s to catch them before the nasty effects of diabetes are noticed.
I wonder whether cost is an issue with this. Not the diagnosing, but the long term treatment. Not sure about the US, but certainly the UK and Australia are not far behind those numbers and they have at least a partial national health system. An increase like that in diabetes patients could easily bankrupt the entire system.
Yes cost is an issue with diabetics. Not only the doctor visits, blood work etc, but the stirps are outrages to buy. The discount most insurances give are not very much at all and then they cover one strip a day for a fasting blood sugar test. A diabetic needs to check when they get up, before and after meals etc. This cost for strips is out of this world to do this to keep your blood sugars down. Also a diabetic has to cut out carbs in their meals (mega carbs for majority of diabetic's) then they have to eat more in protein. Protein is your meats and cheeses mainly and have you looked in the stores at the cost of the meat and cheeses? You have to eat a very extremely healthy diet of low carb higher fats/protein and the average person can not afford this.
Again, I feel the cost is part of why more and more are diagnosed... To feed a family when money is tight, people buy up rice, pastas potato's to stretch the food dollar. It is those items that are like fire swords to a diabetic and raise the blood sugars through the roof. it isn't so much the junk foods (although most f those are high in carbs too). Like hookilau said... for anyone who needs knowledge on what causes diabetes, and what a diabetic has to go through to keep the numbers down. please look at www.bloodsugars101.com .... This is a very informative sight.0 -
There are several people I know who ate right and exercise regularly and/or all the time. My ex was diagnosed with type II, he was thin (not skinny fat), trained five/six times a week and runs at minimum five marathons a year.
but the overwhelming majority is overweight or obese
The current research indicates that the excess weight precedes the actual T2D. It's a symptom of blood sugar dysfunction....also, to be fair, thin people who develop diabetes may have LADA. This is an autoimmune or can be caused by illness, cortisone use too I think.
The point is, it's a different issue and has features of both T2D and T1D and DEFINITELY cannot be prevented & in some cases, there's no clue that this can happen.
ETA: bloodsugar101.com
look I am not going to argue with you, because we come from different angles here, but can I just mention that bloodsugar101.com is by no means a medical authority on diabetes. The author has no medical background and has essentially researched the internet for studies. Yes she has a lot of information on her site, but she will be inherently bias towards studies that prove her point. Just looking through it there seem to be some inconsistencies on her pages that conflict with some of the data found on pubmed, but I don't have the time or energy to get into that particular argument.0 -
There are several people I know who ate right and exercise regularly and/or all the time. My ex was diagnosed with type II, he was thin (not skinny fat), trained five/six times a week and runs at minimum five marathons a year.
but the overwhelming majority is overweight or obese
The current research indicates that the excess weight precedes the actual T2D. It's a symptom of blood sugar dysfunction....also, to be fair, thin people who develop diabetes may have LADA. This is an autoimmune or can be caused by illness, cortisone use too I think.
The point is, it's a different issue and has features of both T2D and T1D and DEFINITELY cannot be prevented & in some cases, there's no clue that this can happen.
ETA: bloodsugar101.com
look I am not going to argue with you, because we come from different angles here, but can I just mention that bloodsugar101.com is by no means a medical authority on diabetes. The author has no medical background and has essentially researched the internet for studies. Yes she has a lot of information on her site, but she will be inherently bias towards studies that prove her point. Just looking through it there seem to be some inconsistencies on her pages that conflict with some of the data found on pubmed, but I don't have the time or energy to get into that particular argument.
I never said anything about arguing, I simply have a point of view that apparently differs from yours. Not sure why this has suddenly turned about arguments. Shrug.
As far as who is an authority on Diabetes....no one ever said anything about being an authority.
This is a discussion. Should we stop discussing ideas and exchanging information until an authority is identified or should we let people do their own research and make their own way?
Jenny Rhul says UNEQUIVOCALLY that the site contains information gleaned from a collection of diabetics using bulletin boards to compare information.
Not sure why this is a problem for you.
Shrug.0 -
I'm Type 2 and have been for about 5 years. While not always preventable you can manage it to the point where meds are not even needed sometimes. I know in my case this is true. With weight loss and exercise I am starting to turn the table on it. It's no fun and I've watched it take my mom to the brink of death a few times. I'm not going to become another statistic for someone to read about.0
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"How is this done?...through medication, insulin supplementation, exercise and abstaining from sugars & starches.
How much?...it's different for everyone. "
Thank you! Nutritionists keep telling me I need more carbs, but then my blood sugars go too high! I'm still learning what affects my blood sugar and what combos I need.0 -
look I am not going to argue with you, because we come from different angles here, but can I just mention that bloodsugar101.com is by no means a medical authority on diabetes. The author has no medical background and has essentially researched the internet for studies. Yes she has a lot of information on her site, but she will be inherently bias towards studies that prove her point. Just looking through it there seem to be some inconsistencies on her pages that conflict with some of the data found on pubmed, but I don't have the time or energy to get into that particular argument.
The world of health is a jungle with many, many self-proclaimed experts and very little believable proof.
I don't believe Jenny Ruhl ever claimed to be a medical authority on diabetes. Is some of Jenny's information anecdotal? Absolutely, since she IS a diabetic who uses herself as a guinea pig. It's part of what makes Blood Sugar 101 so easy to understand. She doesn't say she or anyone else has a "cure". In fact, she states that any changes you make that lower your BG levels significantly will be a lifelong exercise. If you go back to what you were doing, you'll go back to the way you were - dangerously high BG levels.
I have been quite humbled by Ruhl's advice and have successfully confronted most of my own prejudices. Following her "How to Lower Your Blood Sugar" advice, my A1c has ranged from 5.1-5.5 for the past 4 years. If you were lucky enough to get this information from YOUR doctor, congratulations. Unfortunately, most of us were either given little to no information, or stacks of brochures from the American Diabetes Association, which sets the bar far too low to avoid diabetic complications. Following a CDE's advice to eat 45 carbs per meal (standard advice given to diabetics of either type), my A1c was never lower than 6.5, despite an ever increasing amount of insulin.Diabetic forums such as www.diabeteforum.com and the ADA's own http://community.diabetes.org/t5/Adults-Living-with-Type-2/bd-p/Adults-Living-with-Type-2 are filled with people who have similar success stories involving using testing supplies to effectively monitor and treat their diabetes.
And excess weight is only one of many risk factors for diabetes. Steroids and statins also greatly increase the risk of abnormal blood glucose levels. Delivering a larger than normal baby, even in the absence of gestational diabetes, increases the risk of eventual diabetes. Age increases the risk. Your race or ethnicity is a risk factor. An abnormal lipid profile and/or high blood pressure are risk factors.0 -
It's not just us.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/10/health/diabetes-epidemic-grows-in-china.html?_r=0
Those are some pretty scary numbers in China too.
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This is the UK situation.
Overweight and obesity are common. In the UK:
•Between 6 and 7 out of 10 men have a BMI >25 and so are overweight or obese.
•Between 5 and 6 out of 10 women have a BMI >25 and so are overweight or obese.
•Around 1 in 4 men and 1 in 4 women in the UK have a BMI >30 and so are obese.
•Around 2 in 100 adults are severely (also called morbidly) obese (BMI >40).
The number of obese people in the UK is rising, particularly among young adults. Since 1980, the number of obese adults in the UK has nearly tripled and the UK now has the highest rate of obesity in Europe . This has been called the obesity epidemic.
Staggering really.0 -
Being that you have it, it seems that you've taken lots of time to research it and have a much wider range of knowledge than myself on it, so I will keep looking at your posts to learn.The current research indicates that the excess weight precedes the actual T2D. It's a symptom of blood sugar dysfunction....also, to be fair, thin people who develop diabetes may have LADA. This is an autoimmune or can be caused by illness, cortisone use too I think.
The point is, it's a different issue and has features of both T2D and T1D and DEFINITELY cannot be prevented & in some cases, there's no clue that this can happen.
ETA: bloodsugar101.com
A.C.E. Certified Personal and Group Fitness Trainer
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Been in fitness for 30 years and have studied kinesiology and nutrition0 -
Saying that Type 2 Diabetes is "genetic" is a cop out for people who do not understand how Type 2 diabetes works. It's very similar to saying, "That person has AIDS because he has genes that allows him to get the AIDS virus". Skinny people can become Type 2 diabetic but saying that it's genetic is a cop out. You can read the research papers below in that link to get a better understanding from where I'm coming from but I'll give you a brief summary as to why using the "it's genetic" term is a cop out.
Summary with many many many scientific details left out
Your liver and pancreas work together to maintain stable glucose levels. When there is too much fat on the liver and pancreas, those organs lose the ability to sense how much glucose is in the bloodstream because those organs are literally covered up in fat. When you leave those organs in such a fatty state for too long, the receptors that sense how much glucose is in the blood begin to degrade over time. You also have insulin receptors on your muscles and they degrade over time due to high fatty acid concentrations too. Actually, I believe insulin receptors degrade due to high glucose but in order to have high glucose your pancreas and liver must lose some of its glucose sensing abilities first.
Now, this is where genetics come into play. The marker at which someone becomes type 2 diabetic is different for each person due to genetics. Some people can become diabetic at 30 pounds of excess fat. Others can become diabetic at 80 pounds excess fat, and due to genetics a mere 5 pounds of excess fat is high enough to cause degradation of your receptors in certain skinny individuals. Think of it this way. Everyone's pancreas and liver are different sizes and the sizes of those organs will determine how much fat your body can tolerate before you become a type 2 diabetic.
No one is born Type 2 Diabetic, it happens over time as explained above.
http://care.diabetesjournals.org/content/36/4/1047.full
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It'll happen way before then if people keep falling for the garbage this country is trying to pass as food.0
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i wonder if this has any relationship to the projected aging of our population. In 2050 I'll be in my 70's.
oops read a little more see it is suspected to be a population composition issue0 -
Only very small percentage is genetic. If this was not true, than the rates would have been just as high 30-40 years ago. But they are not. The percentage of population with diabetes is growing like crazy. That suggests environment/behavior is the cause, not genetics.0
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Let's not go to overboard here. One could eat quite well, but over consume calories and attain it. Excess weight and inactivity are the more likely direct contributors to type 2 diabetes, although there still isn't a definite cause that's been identified.It'll happen way before then if people keep falling for the garbage this country is trying to pass as food.
A.C.E. Certified Personal and Group Fitness Trainer
IDEA Fitness member
Kickboxing Certified Instructor
Been in fitness for 30 years and have studied kinesiology and nutrition0 -
Only very small percentage is genetic. If this was not true, than the rates would have been just as high 30-40 years ago. But they are not. The percentage of population with diabetes is growing like crazy. That suggests environment/behavior is the cause, not genetics.
this ...
in my husbands family: they great grandparents on his mother's side all got to 70 without diabetes, the grandparents on his mother's side all got to 70 (one of them to 90) and nobody had diabetes, now his mother has diabetes, so has her brother, her sister hasn't, so her mother's doctor told, because her brother has is, it's genetic and not her fault. However both his mother and her brother are obese, whereas the sister is a normal weight and has been a normal weight most of her life.
Yes there is a genetic component, but it is triggered by that person's weight in a lot of the cases. No doubt there are other triggers which is why some of the people with type 2 are of normal weight, but 85% are overweight or obese, so it's not too farfetched to assume it has an impact.0 -
The majority of T2D in uk are from overweight people who stuff their faces with crap and then blame the diabetes , swollen feet , energy for not being able to exercise and lose the weight that os causing them the health problems in the first place.
Our society is fast food and sugar addicted , i dont mind having a bar of chocolate every now and then but its not my main diet. No wonder our kids are getting fat , between easy foods and computer the country is ruined. We'r going to end up like the fat people in the film Wall-e .
My dad has t2d from being overweight (2 stone overweight) and because the doctor can give him a pill he thinks yhat its ok to be like that. Terrible reaction, i think doctors should prescribe an eating plan and not tablets , not only would everybody be healthier but it would save the NHS millions on overweight procedures and ailments.0 -
Yes there is a genetic component, but it is triggered by that person's weight in a lot of the cases. No doubt there are other triggers which is why some of the people with type 2 are of normal weight, but 85% are overweight or obese, so it's not too farfetched to assume it has an impact.
Do we know which is the cart and which is the horse ? Were elevated blood sugars present leading to accumulation of fat and obesity as insulin attempted to drop the blood sugar, or did they get fat with normal blood sugar then the pancreas got messed up with visceral fat ?0
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