Some statistics about running and safety from crime

davemunger
davemunger Posts: 1,139 Member
in Fitness and Exercise
There's been some discussion on MFP about how dangerous it is for people, especially women, to run in isolated places in the dark. I decided to look into the crime data in the US to get a sense of how dangerous it really is.

I ended up writing an extended post on the topic; here's a snippet:
In 2012 there were 12,765 murders in the US; 9,917 of the victims were male and 2,834 were female. That means that the average American had a .0004 percent chance of getting murdered that year.

But most murders are committed by people who know their victims. The random guy jumping out from behind a bush is responsible for relatively few murders. Indeed, only 1,557 of the 12,765 murders in 2012 were committed by strangers. When you limit the murders to the categories likely to affect runners (e.g. not bar-room brawls or gang wars), the number drops below 400, or about one in 100,000. And again, runners are likely to be only a portion of these cases.

Here's the link to the whole article:

http://sciencebasedrunning.com/2013/10/are-runners-likely-to-be-targets-of-violent-crime/

Replies

  • Beertroll
    Beertroll Posts: 29
    Why use statistics when we can rely on hearsay and preconceived notions?
  • DavPul
    DavPul Posts: 61,406 Member
    I'm sorry, but your facts and statistics are not sufficiently alarmist enough. If people aren't afraid of things that happen less often than winning the lottery, who's going to buy all the guns?

    besides, someone's going to come in here any second now and say how you'd think differently if <insert worst thing that could happen> had happened to <insert beloved family member> so all of your stats are for naught.
  • AllonsYtotheTardis
    AllonsYtotheTardis Posts: 16,947 Member
    I need to show this to my mother - who worries about me running alone.
  • tapirfrog
    tapirfrog Posts: 616 Member
    What about rapes, beatings, and/or injuries from getting things thrown at you? (I've only had the last one, but I was in physical rehab for a couple of weeks.) Do your stats cover anything besides murder?

    Edited to add: Oh, duh, I could go read it myself. Off to do that now.
  • cafeaulait7
    cafeaulait7 Posts: 2,459 Member
    The only time I was a runner was when I tried it for a few months at 16-17 years old. I really did have a guy try to pull me in his car. The crude things other guys yelled out was enough to put a damper on my running enthusiasm long before that, from day 1.

    Yeah, not a runner here. (But my body mechanics make that a very good thing! Running is probably the worst exercise I could fall in love with).

    I get a little irritated with guys who will never have some creepy dude try to pull them in a car acting as if I'm silly for even considering the scenario. It's easy enough to not be afraid of something if you know that your own chances are practically nil for real and you've never had anything even close happen.

    I don't think women should stop running. It's their choice completely. It's not something I enjoy out on the streets, and a large part of that is creepy stuff, yes. Bad drivers/unsafe roads for accidents are also right on up there! Ironically, I never had anyone nearly hit me. Or maybe not so ironic given the full stats in the OP's entire article.
  • jwdieter
    jwdieter Posts: 2,582 Member
    Unfortunately, these statistics don't provide information on risks for runners - especially solo night running. Percentage of general population encountering various crimes, while overwhelmingly not engaged in the subject activity, just isn't relevant.

    How many runners are there? How many runners get attacked? The link indicates it has no idea about this relationship, much less how many solo female night runners there are, and how many of those experience crime/injury.
  • primal_cupcakes
    primal_cupcakes Posts: 280 Member
    Most people definitely overestimate the risk to women of running alone at night, or of just being a woman in the world at night without a chaperone in general. That said, I personally know three women that have been assaulted while running or walking. This is not alarmist fear-talk. It's just a fact. Most women that I know have been assaulted in some way in their lives, mostly by people they know. It comes with the territory.
    THAT said, I refuse to live fearfully. I know basic self-defense and carry myself like a confident, competent person. I carry a weapon and I know how to use it (not telling you what). I'm embarking on a solo, cross-country bike trip in the spring and the first question everyone asks about it is, "Aren't you afraid of being attacked?" I suppose it's possible. Far more likely I'll encounter a pissed-off dog than a human stranger with bad intentions, but being alive is inherently dangerous. Yet we keep doing it day in and day out.
  • ZenInTexas
    ZenInTexas Posts: 781 Member
    Bump to read later.
  • froeschli
    froeschli Posts: 1,292 Member
    i wont bother reading the article, when i run alone, murder is the last thing i am afraid of. i mean, who cares, i am not going to have to live with it.....
    but when people look at me a bit too intently, or slow down/stop to ask for directions, i do question their motives before they even open their mouths. i still believe i can take care of myself, but it doesn't hurt running with both eyes open so to speak...

    not trusting people isn't the same as being afraid - or that's what i tell myself :wink:
  • slywon
    slywon Posts: 85 Member
    For the country bumpkins out there, there is always the added excitement of wildlife.......coyotes, cougars and bears......uh huh!!
  • MelodyandBarbells
    MelodyandBarbells Posts: 7,724 Member
    To the OP since your article was statistic and numbers heavy, may I suggest some sort of graphic summary like a pie chart or histogram etc.
  • davemunger
    davemunger Posts: 1,139 Member
    To the OP since your article was statistic and numbers heavy, may I suggest some sort of graphic summary like a pie chart or histogram etc.

    Thanks for the suggestion -- I usually do include charts and graphs on my posts but ran out of time yesterday. I may revisit this post or make a new one with some charts.
  • debra6590
    debra6590 Posts: 25 Member
    I often think about being attacked while I am out running alone and I have to say that I am just as at risk in daylight hours as I am in dark. Nearly getting hit by drivers is my worst concern as they think you should not be on the road at all. Being leared at is just a joke, I ignore it mostly. Getting abuse off people who clearly don't exercise is my pet hate. If you hvae nothing nice to say then please keep it to yourself. But if someone does attack me then I do not think I would have the energy to run away from them but hey ho fear does crazy things to the body I am sure. (I am in UK and so all those statistics don't apply to me anyway)
  • aelphabawest
    aelphabawest Posts: 173 Member
    I live in a very urban city with a high crime rate, and my part of town is "transitional." I run, but instead of crime I'm generally more worried about being seen by idiot drivers (I use high visibility belts and wrist bands etc).
    There's your statistics, of course, but I also think I'm *probably* more likely to get attacked at night walking home from the metro than I am at 6:30 in the morning running. The street harassment is definitely worse walking at night, or even just after work during the commuting hours when the high school boys are out in packs.
  • cordianet
    cordianet Posts: 534 Member
    You're absolutely right. And while I'm at it, I think I'll pull out all the smoke alarms from my house and cancel my homeowners insurance since the likelihood of a fire is so remote...

    Look, I get your point, this isn't something we ought to spend a bunch of time worrying about, but the flip side is, taking reasonable precautions isn't necessarily a bad thing. Just be aware of the risks, then decide for your self. I'll not fault anyone that wants to be extra careful and carry say mace or a firearm, that's their prerogative, just like I wouldn't fault anyone for having homeowner's insurance. If taking along some sort of protection is what it takes to get them out the door, that's fine by me.
  • jeffd247
    jeffd247 Posts: 319 Member
    HEY! Running solo CAN be dangerous... but let's not jut focus on the victims here.

    An attacker never knows if their victims are carrying pepper spray, a stun gun, a knife or worse! Plus some of them are fast and they will jump hedges and fences to get away (you could pull a hammy). Usually attackers have to wear a mask, which can impair their vision and up the risk level ever more.

    Where are the statistics on the injury rates of the attackers? Where is their ribbon magnet?
  • aelphabawest
    aelphabawest Posts: 173 Member
    You're absolutely right. And while I'm at it, I think I'll pull out all the smoke alarms from my house and cancel my homeowners insurance since the likelihood of a fire is so remote...

    Look, I get your point, this isn't something we ought to spend a bunch of time worrying about, but the flip side is, taking reasonable precautions isn't necessarily a bad thing. Just be aware of the risks, then decide for your self. I'll not fault anyone that wants to be extra careful and carry say mace or a firearm, that's their prerogative, just like I wouldn't fault anyone for having homeowner's insurance. If taking along some sort of protection is what it takes to get them out the door, that's fine by me.

    Agreed - taking precautions for the worst possible scenario is the right way to go, but don't let fear stop you from running!
  • Routerninja
    Routerninja Posts: 201
    If Law and Order has taught me anything being a runner just means you're the one most likely to find a body.
  • jaysull21
    jaysull21 Posts: 58
    For the country bumpkins out there, there is always the added excitement of wildlife.......coyotes, cougars and bears......uh huh!!

    Excitement... ya... that's it! When I heard the wolves/coyotes/coy-dog/whatevertheywere puppies howling the other night I ran much faster than I usually run across that stretch of town. :)
  • ZenInTexas
    ZenInTexas Posts: 781 Member
    If Law and Order has taught me anything being a runner just means you're the one most likely to find a body.

    :laugh:
  • DavPul
    DavPul Posts: 61,406 Member
    You're absolutely right. And while I'm at it, I think I'll pull out all the smoke alarms from my house and cancel my homeowners insurance since the likelihood of a fire is so remote...

    Look, I get your point, this isn't something we ought to spend a bunch of time worrying about, but the flip side is, taking reasonable precautions isn't necessarily a bad thing. Just be aware of the risks, then decide for your self. I'll not fault anyone that wants to be extra careful and carry say mace or a firearm, that's their prerogative, just like I wouldn't fault anyone for having homeowner's insurance. If taking along some sort of protection is what it takes to get them out the door, that's fine by me.

    And who on this thread is saying people should not be smart, aware, and take precautions? Is there a post on here advising women to run buck naked at 2am in the woods that I missed?
  • belgerian
    belgerian Posts: 1,059 Member
    This only covers Homocides what about sexual assaults and just assaults in general. Id say those statistics are nice but pretty much worthless to someone concerned about their safety. Im not a women but my concern is those drivers turning right not paying attention to me who has the right of way in the cross walk. Or those drives who just ignore the rather large sign in the cross walk that says STOP FOR PEDESTRIANS IN THE CROSS WALK and blow by me by about 6 inches when im in the middle of the road in town where the speed limit is 25.
  • aelphabawest
    aelphabawest Posts: 173 Member
    From my local news:
    Months after assault on Custis Trail jogger, physical and psychological effects continue
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/crime/physical-psychological-effects-of-attack-of-jogger-on-custis-trail-continue-months-later/2013/10/23/63371e72-36a0-11e3-8a0e-4e2cf80831fc_story.html
  • mitchyinge
    mitchyinge Posts: 196
    Yeah but it's difficult because we are constantly reminded, as women, that we are basically prey for some scary stranger out there somewhere - it even passes for entertainment on almost every tv channel every night, dramatised or reconstructed or whatever - even though the people most likely to hurt or kill us are our own husbands or boyfriends (two women a week in UK, more than the number of soldiers we lose in Iraq Afghanistan etc!) or whatever, yet people never say 'don't have a romantic relationship with a man, it's too potentially dangerous'. Why is this?
  • FindingAmy77
    FindingAmy77 Posts: 1,268 Member
    unfortunately all the statistics in the world wont rule out the fact that my husband worries about me jogging on my preferred paths/time of day, etc. For god sakes he talks about it all the time and makes me carry a knife "until we get you some pepper spray" He even drove me by a area opposite direction of where I walk by tonight to show me where he thinks "is much safer and cops always patrol" Dammit wish there weren't weirdos everywhere, I just want to jog away and not worry or even have these conversation. But thanks for the article it at least gives me some peace of mind.
  • chard_muncher
    chard_muncher Posts: 75 Member
    This is an exercise in futility if I've ever seen one. The people who are susceptible to the kind of sensational claims you're trying to dispel are the same people who are impervious to good sense. It doesn't matter how unlikely an event is, they're deeply afraid of it and carrying some kind of weapon makes them feel safe (Which, if you believe Maslow, is a need second only to breathing).
    You're absolutely right. And while I'm at it, I think I'll pull out all the smoke alarms from my house and cancel my homeowners insurance since the likelihood of a fire is so remote...

    Yes you *probably* would be better off if you didn't pay for homeowners insurance. That's the point of for-profit insurance companies, more money will be paid in premiums than is paid out in claims.
  • lucan07
    lucan07 Posts: 509
    Just run faster and the muggers and murderers won't be able to catch you, if you zig zag as well you will be harder to hit if they have guns!
  • snsmyth
    snsmyth Posts: 35 Member
    There is a very cool app called Saferunner that tracks your running with GPS, and when you pull the headphones out of the jack, texts your emergency contact that you need help and takes a video recording of what is immediately happening.
  • QuietBloom
    QuietBloom Posts: 5,413 Member
    There is a very cool app called Saferunner that tracks your running with GPS, and when you pull the headphones out of the jack, texts your emergency contact that you need help and takes a video recording of what is immediately happening.

    Oooh, I like that! Wish they had been available when I was molested by motorcyclist when i was a teen. During daylight hours, no less.
  • DavPul
    DavPul Posts: 61,406 Member
    There is a very cool app called Saferunner that tracks your running with GPS, and when you pull the headphones out of the jack, texts your emergency contact that you need help and takes a video recording of what is immediately happening.

    Am I the only person whose headphones come out accidentally or who has to take them out to when he takes his phone out of his armband?

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