Some statistics about running and safety from crime
davemunger
Posts: 1,139 Member
There's been some discussion on MFP about how dangerous it is for people, especially women, to run in isolated places in the dark. I decided to look into the crime data in the US to get a sense of how dangerous it really is.
I ended up writing an extended post on the topic; here's a snippet:
Here's the link to the whole article:
http://sciencebasedrunning.com/2013/10/are-runners-likely-to-be-targets-of-violent-crime/
I ended up writing an extended post on the topic; here's a snippet:
In 2012 there were 12,765 murders in the US; 9,917 of the victims were male and 2,834 were female. That means that the average American had a .0004 percent chance of getting murdered that year.
But most murders are committed by people who know their victims. The random guy jumping out from behind a bush is responsible for relatively few murders. Indeed, only 1,557 of the 12,765 murders in 2012 were committed by strangers. When you limit the murders to the categories likely to affect runners (e.g. not bar-room brawls or gang wars), the number drops below 400, or about one in 100,000. And again, runners are likely to be only a portion of these cases.
Here's the link to the whole article:
http://sciencebasedrunning.com/2013/10/are-runners-likely-to-be-targets-of-violent-crime/
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Replies
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Why use statistics when we can rely on hearsay and preconceived notions?0
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I'm sorry, but your facts and statistics are not sufficiently alarmist enough. If people aren't afraid of things that happen less often than winning the lottery, who's going to buy all the guns?
besides, someone's going to come in here any second now and say how you'd think differently if <insert worst thing that could happen> had happened to <insert beloved family member> so all of your stats are for naught.0 -
I need to show this to my mother - who worries about me running alone.0
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What about rapes, beatings, and/or injuries from getting things thrown at you? (I've only had the last one, but I was in physical rehab for a couple of weeks.) Do your stats cover anything besides murder?
Edited to add: Oh, duh, I could go read it myself. Off to do that now.0 -
The only time I was a runner was when I tried it for a few months at 16-17 years old. I really did have a guy try to pull me in his car. The crude things other guys yelled out was enough to put a damper on my running enthusiasm long before that, from day 1.
Yeah, not a runner here. (But my body mechanics make that a very good thing! Running is probably the worst exercise I could fall in love with).
I get a little irritated with guys who will never have some creepy dude try to pull them in a car acting as if I'm silly for even considering the scenario. It's easy enough to not be afraid of something if you know that your own chances are practically nil for real and you've never had anything even close happen.
I don't think women should stop running. It's their choice completely. It's not something I enjoy out on the streets, and a large part of that is creepy stuff, yes. Bad drivers/unsafe roads for accidents are also right on up there! Ironically, I never had anyone nearly hit me. Or maybe not so ironic given the full stats in the OP's entire article.0 -
Unfortunately, these statistics don't provide information on risks for runners - especially solo night running. Percentage of general population encountering various crimes, while overwhelmingly not engaged in the subject activity, just isn't relevant.
How many runners are there? How many runners get attacked? The link indicates it has no idea about this relationship, much less how many solo female night runners there are, and how many of those experience crime/injury.0 -
Most people definitely overestimate the risk to women of running alone at night, or of just being a woman in the world at night without a chaperone in general. That said, I personally know three women that have been assaulted while running or walking. This is not alarmist fear-talk. It's just a fact. Most women that I know have been assaulted in some way in their lives, mostly by people they know. It comes with the territory.
THAT said, I refuse to live fearfully. I know basic self-defense and carry myself like a confident, competent person. I carry a weapon and I know how to use it (not telling you what). I'm embarking on a solo, cross-country bike trip in the spring and the first question everyone asks about it is, "Aren't you afraid of being attacked?" I suppose it's possible. Far more likely I'll encounter a pissed-off dog than a human stranger with bad intentions, but being alive is inherently dangerous. Yet we keep doing it day in and day out.0 -
Bump to read later.0
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i wont bother reading the article, when i run alone, murder is the last thing i am afraid of. i mean, who cares, i am not going to have to live with it.....
but when people look at me a bit too intently, or slow down/stop to ask for directions, i do question their motives before they even open their mouths. i still believe i can take care of myself, but it doesn't hurt running with both eyes open so to speak...
not trusting people isn't the same as being afraid - or that's what i tell myself
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For the country bumpkins out there, there is always the added excitement of wildlife.......coyotes, cougars and bears......uh huh!!0
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To the OP since your article was statistic and numbers heavy, may I suggest some sort of graphic summary like a pie chart or histogram etc.0
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To the OP since your article was statistic and numbers heavy, may I suggest some sort of graphic summary like a pie chart or histogram etc.
Thanks for the suggestion -- I usually do include charts and graphs on my posts but ran out of time yesterday. I may revisit this post or make a new one with some charts.0 -
I often think about being attacked while I am out running alone and I have to say that I am just as at risk in daylight hours as I am in dark. Nearly getting hit by drivers is my worst concern as they think you should not be on the road at all. Being leared at is just a joke, I ignore it mostly. Getting abuse off people who clearly don't exercise is my pet hate. If you hvae nothing nice to say then please keep it to yourself. But if someone does attack me then I do not think I would have the energy to run away from them but hey ho fear does crazy things to the body I am sure. (I am in UK and so all those statistics don't apply to me anyway)0
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I live in a very urban city with a high crime rate, and my part of town is "transitional." I run, but instead of crime I'm generally more worried about being seen by idiot drivers (I use high visibility belts and wrist bands etc).
There's your statistics, of course, but I also think I'm *probably* more likely to get attacked at night walking home from the metro than I am at 6:30 in the morning running. The street harassment is definitely worse walking at night, or even just after work during the commuting hours when the high school boys are out in packs.0 -
You're absolutely right. And while I'm at it, I think I'll pull out all the smoke alarms from my house and cancel my homeowners insurance since the likelihood of a fire is so remote...
Look, I get your point, this isn't something we ought to spend a bunch of time worrying about, but the flip side is, taking reasonable precautions isn't necessarily a bad thing. Just be aware of the risks, then decide for your self. I'll not fault anyone that wants to be extra careful and carry say mace or a firearm, that's their prerogative, just like I wouldn't fault anyone for having homeowner's insurance. If taking along some sort of protection is what it takes to get them out the door, that's fine by me.0 -
HEY! Running solo CAN be dangerous... but let's not jut focus on the victims here.
An attacker never knows if their victims are carrying pepper spray, a stun gun, a knife or worse! Plus some of them are fast and they will jump hedges and fences to get away (you could pull a hammy). Usually attackers have to wear a mask, which can impair their vision and up the risk level ever more.
Where are the statistics on the injury rates of the attackers? Where is their ribbon magnet?0 -
You're absolutely right. And while I'm at it, I think I'll pull out all the smoke alarms from my house and cancel my homeowners insurance since the likelihood of a fire is so remote...
Look, I get your point, this isn't something we ought to spend a bunch of time worrying about, but the flip side is, taking reasonable precautions isn't necessarily a bad thing. Just be aware of the risks, then decide for your self. I'll not fault anyone that wants to be extra careful and carry say mace or a firearm, that's their prerogative, just like I wouldn't fault anyone for having homeowner's insurance. If taking along some sort of protection is what it takes to get them out the door, that's fine by me.
Agreed - taking precautions for the worst possible scenario is the right way to go, but don't let fear stop you from running!0 -
If Law and Order has taught me anything being a runner just means you're the one most likely to find a body.0
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For the country bumpkins out there, there is always the added excitement of wildlife.......coyotes, cougars and bears......uh huh!!
Excitement... ya... that's it! When I heard the wolves/coyotes/coy-dog/whatevertheywere puppies howling the other night I ran much faster than I usually run across that stretch of town.
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If Law and Order has taught me anything being a runner just means you're the one most likely to find a body.
:laugh:0
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