How accurate are people finding MFP's weight prediction?

vegehippie
vegehippie Posts: 6 Member
in Getting Started
Hi everyone... my question is: How accurate are people finding MFP's "If every day were like today, you'd weigh X in five weeks..."?

I haven't been on MFP long enough to see whether or not that is accurate yet. Based upon my food and exercise logging over the past week, my daily prediction is that in four or five weeks, whatever it is, I would weigh roughly 160lbs (I'm 171lbs at the moment). This doesn't seem too out of the question but just wanted to know what people thought of it as a whole.

Any comments welcome :)

Replies

  • nm212
    nm212 Posts: 570 Member
    I wouldn't go by that. It changes daily, unless you are consistently eating a certain way. For me, it's never the same. I just take it day by day and go by the scale. :)
  • melaniecheeks
    melaniecheeks Posts: 6,349 Member
    It's not really a predicition - it's a computer algorithm based on the calroies you ate on one day.

    If it motivates you - great!

    If it annoys you - don't press the "close diary" button!
  • sandobr1
    sandobr1 Posts: 319 Member
    When I first join and had a lot to lose, it was very accurate, I would say through the first 30 pounds or so it was within a 1/2 pound.
    Remember what it says IF everyday WERE like today...there are loads of variables which can make everyday very different from every other day. But for me when the weight came off steadily (because I had so much to lose) it was close.
  • janeite1990
    janeite1990 Posts: 671 Member
    Not at all. I was under at at my calories but didn't end up where they said. Not a problem. Progress is progress. Just don't get too excited if it looks fantastic because it may not happen. I think having realistic expectations is a good thing.
  • ideang
    ideang Posts: 95
    I NET about the same calories everyday, and so far it has been pretty correct for me. It might be a pound or so off.
  • Onaughmae
    Onaughmae Posts: 873 Member
    Not so much for me...
  • TR0berts
    TR0berts Posts: 7,739 Member
    I don't know about that part, specifically - I never went back and looked to see if it worked out that way. But... last time I tried losing weight, I used the MFP method and it worked out pretty close to perfectly for me. As such, I'd imagine that the feature you speak/write/type of should be accurate, provided your information is correct and you don't have any specific medical issues.
  • Followingsea
    Followingsea Posts: 407 Member
    q10h.png

    It's tough, because it changes every day depending on how well you stuck to it. Last night, it estimated a loss of ~5 lbs in 5 weeks. Over the weekend, when I hosted a girl's night and threw caution to the wind, it estimated a ten pound gain. Also, for me personally, I almost never remember to close out my diary, so I rarely get that screen anyway.

    5 weeks out is a long projection, based on the activities of one day. I use it more of a way to double-check that I am on course.
  • dangerousdumpling
    dangerousdumpling Posts: 1,109 Member
    Not accurate at all for me. But I'm one of those people that loses inches more so than pounds so I don't rely on the scale to tell the whole story.
  • _jayciemarie_
    _jayciemarie_ Posts: 574 Member
    Not at ALL accurate! For the last several weeks it has told me I would be about 175. I just got down to 183lb.
  • SmexAppeal
    SmexAppeal Posts: 858 Member
    It will only work if you are very consistent in your eating habits and exercise habits. It is encouraging to see yourself losing weight. But this program doesn't take into account if you have yourself set at a calorie deficit. It can't take into account all factors. But it is a nice guideline. If you have a wonderful eating/exercise day, it will show you what you can do IF you continue to be consistent.
    Just don't let that number ever stress you out. Whether you hit it in 4-5 weeks or not, any lose is a win!
  • farfromthetree
    farfromthetree Posts: 982 Member
    I NET about the same calories everyday, and so far it has been pretty correct for me. It might be a pound or so off.


    same here!
  • sweetpea03b
    sweetpea03b Posts: 1,123 Member
    Not at all... mostly because MFP is saying if EVERY DAY were EXACTLY like today... you would weigh X. Unless your workout and diet is EXACTLY THE SAME everyday.... it's not going to be accurate. (and for me, since I wear a Fitbit that does adjustments based on that day's activities.... some days I move more than others).
  • bumblebreezy91
    bumblebreezy91 Posts: 520 Member
    It's definitely a good motivator to see that a certain day will bring up your predicted weight while another, better day will bring it down. I know it motivates me to do better the next day if I see a slight increase in the projected weight, but I don't exactly go by it as a rule because it tends to go up if I'm slightly over in carbs or fat but under in calories and that isn't entirely accurate. My foods are weighed and measured perfectly, I even check prepackaged foods with my scale. If I'm not going over in calories, the scale will be going down as normal. I'm always over in carbs. I eat an apple or two per day. My weight isn't affected. Now, when I do go over my calories and I see the projected weight go up, I know to do better. This may be slightly different for you and others, of course, but this is what I've found to be true for myself.
  • bumblebreezy91
    bumblebreezy91 Posts: 520 Member
    Not accurate at all for me. But I'm one of those people that loses inches more so than pounds so I don't rely on the scale to tell the whole story.

    This too ^^^

    Don't forget inches!
  • obmckenzie
    obmckenzie Posts: 75 Member
    So, its a computer model based on the whole calories in-calories out= weight loss and that doesn't work for everyone.

    For me, I've found that it doesn't matter how many calories I eat, unless I'm eating under 20g of carbs I won't lose anything. Funn enough on the 1st when I started Keto it said I would be 215 in 5 weeks. Welp, I'm already 215 and it's been 16 days (~2 weeks). Yesterday it said I'd be 205 in 5 weeks, but if I keep on my trend I'll likely hit that in about 2 weeks.

    So yeah. I used to laugh about it before I tried PCOS, now I almost see it as a challenge. "SCREW YOU MATH! I'M GOING TO DO IT IN 3!"
  • baudilus
    baudilus Posts: 9 Member
    I think it's mildly accurate, but that's assuming you eat the exact same amount of calories every day for 5 weeks.

    Instead I find that the calculated amount of calories I burn every day is quite low - I know this because I'm losing way more than the 2 lbs per week i specified in the settings, even when I hit my calorie goal as much as possible.

    I just use it as motivation,
  • GBrady43068
    GBrady43068 Posts: 1,256 Member
    I look at it as a "self-shaming" tool primarily. When I have a day where it estimates I'd be GAINING weight if "every day were like today", I use that as exercise fuel the next day (and make sure I'm within my targets).

    I wouldn't take it as gospel though.

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