33% rule? (fitness noob question)

I think you're a little confused, and I've never heard of the 33% rule, so I wouldn't base anything off of what one person said.

Everyone burns calories all day whether they are sitting on the couch or if they are out running marathons. You have to eat enough to fuel your particular activity level. Weight loss can be achieved through eating less food, adding in exercise, or both. You don't have to exercise, but it can have a lot of benefits and a lot of people are happier with their lives and bodies if they incorporate in exercise.

MFP calculates your calorie goal based on your activity level. If you say you are sedentary (a lot of people have desk jobs, so that's what they put), then MFP does not know if you are exercising. So, you log your exercise calories, and low and behold, you have more calories to eat. That's because it is more sustainable to have a moderate deficit, which MFP already gives you. Exercise means you get to eat more.

If you told MFP that you were highly active because you work out 5-7 times a week, then you don't log and eat back your exercise calories.

This is a very good read:
http://www.myfitnesspal.com/topics/show/1080242-a-guide-to-get-you-started-on-your-path-to-sexypants

what kinds of foods are you eating? That makes a huge difference. Because if your fueling your body with crappy food, your not going to get the results that you want. Also depending on what foods and drinks you are taking in, you could be retaining water.
Lastly, I only use my scale for a reference not an actual tool. I started measuring myself, the tape measurer doesnt lie, the scale does. Muscle weighs more than fat and it could be from you gaining muscle.

I'd suggest going to a clean diet and cutting out any soda. I've lost over 60lbs in one year doing this, so this is just from my personal opinion.

While "clean eating" has really helped some people, a strict diet with no foods that people used to enjoy may be overly restrictive for some people, and they may find it hard to stick to long term.

I agree that whole foods that you cook yourself are easier for determining accurate calorie counts, and you can usually eat a larger volume of food which will keep you feeling satiated. This will definitely help with the process, but cutting out everything else is not necessary and some people just can't do it. There is no reason to set yourself up for failure.

And since the OP seems overwhelmed with trying to figure out what an appropriate deficit is, adding in a restrictive diet I don't think would be beneficial.

OP: I forgot to add in my original response. You gave an example of eating 1500 calories and working out 500. That is the equivalent of not working out and only eating 1000 calories a day. Does that sound healthy to you?

Okay, thank you for sharing that. I was curious because some folks think they need to lose when they don't. Question: How much cardio do you do a week?

Tabata is great. Good job on all the walking you do. This is my advice- consider changing your cardio routine. It isn't working, right? Which is why you posted, "confused cause you're not losing". Try 2 x 30 mins of cardio a day. Keep in mind to keep your heart rate up to burn fat. Try power walking. Build up to a HIIT program. Or try this: 5 min walking, jog 2 mins, walk 2mins x 7, cool down with 5 mins of walking. I really feel like your cardio right now isn't doing the trick. Give it 2 weeks, trying my suggestions and keep eating right, lots of water. Let me know how it works/what you think about it. Good luck!

Junk food is a rare thing for me. and i've already cut out soda I did that months ago when i first started trying to be healthier.

Why wouldn't eat back my exercise calories? I love the idea of that because i think that's way too much food for me, but everyone has been telling me to eat them back...

My wife and I neither one eat back our exercise calories, unless we burn a lot in a given day (>1000). Every now and then I'll use 100 or so of them if I had a bigger than normal lunch, or want a snack. But I find I stay full just fine on my normal calories with normal exercise and if I tried to eat them all back I would be eating when I was full, which is a big no-no in programs like weight watchers.