Confused about what I'm doing wrong not progressing

I've been eating about 40% carbs 30% fat and 30% protein and doing some weights, mostly squats and lunges, push ups etc. and some rowing and walking. When I first started on MFP I was 125 lbs at 27% body fat and i couldn't fit into my skinny jeans. After two months i went down to 25.5% body but stayed at 125 but could fit into my skinny jeans. Now two months after that I am still 125 but I'm back up to 27% body fat but i still fit into my skinny jeans. I'm just not sure if I should change anything. My goal is to develop more muscle and lower my body fat. I feel like I eat pretty healthily but I still have my chocolate each and every day and I sometimes go way over calories about once a week. Just not sure what approach to take to make some progress. Any thoughts?

How are you measuring your % bodyfat. If you say by scale I think I have found your problem.

Why do think its accurate? Honestly sounds to me like with the important measures you are doing well but are allowing yourself to get psychologically hung up on a measure that is notoriously inaccurate.

Oh wow that's interesting. I guess the whole process is just slow going and gradual. I was so excited to see body fat go down at first. I guess the main thing I should focus on is how my clothes fit. That's a more accurate indicator of progress it seems.

Scale weight will go up and down because your body naturally retains water due to many factors including sodium intake, stress on your muscles and your monthly cycle any of which can obscure fat loss. You can lose 5 pounds of fat but not notice because at the same time your body is retaining an extra 5 pounds of water due to stress on your muscles from your workout routines.

Bodyfat measures are notoriously innacurate. If you take bodyfat measures over and over and over and over again you might be able to get a reliable trend but if you just take a hand full you really have to slap a +/- 4% error on there unless you are having a medical scan (DEXA). Quite frankly some dude at a gym with a "machine" is not necessarily indication of accuracy.

Here is the real measure. Are your clothes feeling looser? Are you having to notch your belt that much more? Do you measure with a tape measurer and if so are you losing inches over parts of your body? Are you feeling stronger? Are you making progress in terms of how far you can run or how much weight you can lift? Do you look better in the mirror? These are the things that should matter to you.

Your scale weight, your percent bodyfat...these can be useful measures over time to establish that yes you are headed the right direction...but take both with a grain of salt and realize they aren't necessarily 100% accurate or matching with your fat loss.