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results of 20year study reveal weight loss is unattainable

13

Replies

  • Posts: 217 Member

    I was looking through pubmed for some citations to address that claim, and am not finding much to back it up. One study I found that looked at fast, moderate and slow losers one a 1200 calorie diet + behavioral therapy + extended care had pretty unimpressive maintained losses at 18 months (max was 5 lbs or so for the fast losers), and less (though not a statistically significant difference) for moderate and slow losers.

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20443094

    I would question the assumption that if only they looked at people who "made a lifestyle change" or counted calories we would see a higher success rate. The people in this study were prime candidates for "making a lifestyle change", given the behavioral component and extended care, and still could only maintain a 5 lb at most loss by 18 months.

    I shouldn't have assumed anything. I guess I only assumed this was including all methods of weight loss because of the widespread use of everything under the sun.

    Until we see this study, we can no more assume that it was done on people who counted calories than that it was done on people who used the latest fads. Was a link to the study being discussed ever posted?

    ETA: Found something on the other thread. I don't know if it leads to this study. Going to read it now.
  • Posts: 1,885 Member
    Several years ago I weighed over 200 pounds. I have zero reason to think if I hadn't started losing I wouldn't have kept gaining. So I'd probably be well over 300 pounds now. Given that, even if I gain every ounce of what I've lost back in the next few years, I'm still better off than I would have been if I hadn't gone on a diet. Hell, I'd probably be dead by now.
  • Posts: 128 Member
    This article from 1999 talks about the origin of the "95% failure rate". I don't know what the updated statistic would be.

    http://www.nytimes.com/1999/05/25/health/95-regain-lost-weight-or-do-they.html

    ETA: links are helpful
  • Posts: 193 Member
    I will fall in that "95%" group because when I get to goal, or close to goal, I'm planning on getting knocked up. So I will end up gaining a small percentage back, which I will diligently work on losing again between and after the babies are born.

    I wonder about the sample of people that was used to get that statistic. Cause I've dieted and yo-yo'd my whole life, for those times I WAS the 95%. But this time I'm in it for the long haul. Slow going for the win! 180 lbs in 5 years, that's the plan.
  • Posts: 1,390 Member
    What does research actually say?

    http://ajcn.nutrition.org/content/82/1/222S.long
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24355667

    What success factors matter?

    Ahh! You beat me to it!!!
  • Posts: 8,399 Member

    True. I just didn't think of it that way. I guess I was more looking at the ones always looking for an excuse to quit. I was one of those, but at that time I wasn't ready. So I retract my statement about it not needing to be on here because you are right. :drinker:


    Wow Gracie---they always say that no one apologizes and changes position on the forums. You have just shown us how to do it with "grace" (pun intended). Thanks for a good example. :flowerforyou:
  • Posts: 8,399 Member
    As have I (for 12+ years). We're the 5%.

    Keeping it off is a challenge. You have to be ready to do almost exactly what you did to lose, and then be ready to tweak it as your metabolism and/or hormones change with age.

    HOW i keep it off at 49 is different than HOW I kept it off at 39.

    A few months ago there was a thread asking how many regained all their weight and were back. We need a "who's kept it off for 5+ years" thread, where folks can talk about how they've kept it off. Most folks are good at losing it. Folks should be sharing the secrets of keeping it off for years and years (not just months).

    I would love a thread like that--great idea. Do it! :drinker:
  • Posts: 999 Member
    Why do so many people here automatically assume all the studies done around weight loss and maintenance are based off participants who lost weight with pills/fad diets/cleanses/etc?


    I've never seen a single person here post anything to back this assumption up. So it really just sounds, at this point, like wishful thinking.

    It is wishful thinking. Everyone would like to think "that'll never be me!!" but they can't see into the future. Honestly, it's not worth arguing about. I saw your other thread. Everyone is always in the 5%. I was when I lost 80 lbs in 2002. I was again when I lost 50 lbs in 2005. lol Obvi, I was in the 95% every single time, and no pills/powders/fads/programs. Just less calories worth of what I used to eat.

    Maintenance is the hardest part, guys. Remember that. Be ready for it.
  • Posts: 785 Member
    this "study" has already been put on the forum.
  • Posts: 128 Member
    Ooops! Wrong thread. I need to look at my topics more closely.
  • Posts: 1,301 Member
    I should have remembered the link but there is a study that was just recently released stating that obesity is here to stay. a 20 year study proves that dieting at any level is not going to help you lose weight if you are overweight. The study goes on to state that only 5% of dieters are successful in losing weight and keeping it off.
    The other 95% may lose the desired amount of weight but in every case they regain that weight and sometimes more over a period of 5-10 years.

    Wow, a week in and you're already building in excuses for failure. Fact is that successful people don't diet, they modify their behavior, something that is much more involved, and difficult than simply jumping on the magical fat-loss bandwagon of the day. People who are truly successful shun the diet industry and hold themselves accountable, they dedicate themselves to self improvement, and most importantly, they refuse to make, or accept excuses.

    Rigger
  • Posts: 194 Member
    It's because losing weight isn't the hard part. Keeping the weight off is harder. We'll have to prove the study wrong.
  • Posts: 45 Member
    I've lost nearly 30 pounds in six months. According to this study, I shouldn't exist.

    I knew it! I'm a unicorn.
  • I think you've misunderstood the study. That's true to the extent that people don't make permanent lifestyle transformations. Dieting doesn't work, this is true. Lifestyle changes do work!
  • Posts: 128 Member
    I think you've misunderstood the study. That's true to the extent that people don't make permanent lifestyle transformations. Dieting doesn't work, this is true. Lifestyle changes do work!

    And what is the success rate for making those permanent lifestyle transformations? Even in studies where there was extensive behavioral modification activities and extensive follow-up support, most people wind up regaining a significant portion of weight. If anybody is likely to be successful, it would be people participating in precisely those sorts of programs since they are teaching the skills necessary to make a "permanent lifestyle transformation". Most studies of weight maintenance consider weight maintenance to be successful if you can sustain as little as a 5% or 10% weight loss from your initial weight.. Anecdotes, of which we hear many, are not data.
  • Posts: 1,115 Member
    Your success or failure has nothing to do with some random statistic. It is determined my intelligent action, Careful attention and Willpower. Just because most people don't have these qualities is no excuse to give up. But by all means do so, prove them right. I intend to prove them wrong.
  • Posts: 2,582 Member
    Well, maybe the people in the study received shtty advice.
  • Posts: 3,096 Member

    Wow, a week in and you're already building in excuses for failure. Fact is that successful people don't diet, they modify their behavior, something that is much more involved, and difficult than simply jumping on the magical fat-loss bandwagon of the day. People who are truly successful shun the diet industry and hold themselves accountable, they dedicate themselves to self improvement, and most importantly, they refuse to make, or accept excuses.

    Rigger

    I agree. Though we all want to lose the extra weight...it has to be about more than that.

    For me...I had to take a long hard look at why I let myself become such a mess...it wasn't pretty. Along with losing the weight I had to also deal with those issues...if I want to have any hope of keeping the weight off long term.

    I don't call this a "life style"...I call it "letting go of those things that I used for excuses"...most of all I see it as "allowing myself to have the life that I deserve".
  • Posts: 1,885 Member
    What in_the_stars posted in the other thread on this issue is far more enlightening to me than rawr rah rah willpower, get some!

    "The Rockefeller subjects also had a psychiatric syndrome, called semi-starvation neurosis, which had been noticed before in people of normal weight who had been starved. They dreamed of food, they fantasized about food or about breaking their diet. They were anxious and depressed; some had thoughts of suicide. They secreted food in their rooms. And they binged. "

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/health/08fat.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0


    This is no ordinary test of willpower. This requires extraordinary willpower. Failing to acknowledge that is setting ourselves up for failure.
  • Posts: 1,888 Member
    I don't call this a "life style"...I call it "letting go of those things that I used for excuses"...most of all I see it as "allowing myself to have the life that I deserve".

    This is one of the best things I've ever read on this board.
  • Posts: 1,115 Member
    What in_the_stars posted in the other thread on this issue is far more enlightening to me than rawr rah rah willpower, get some!

    "The Rockefeller subjects also had a psychiatric syndrome, called semi-starvation neurosis, which had been noticed before in people of normal weight who had been starved. They dreamed of food, they fantasized about food or about breaking their diet. They were anxious and depressed; some had thoughts of suicide. They secreted food in their rooms. And they binged. "

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/health/08fat.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0


    This is no ordinary test of willpower. This requires extraordinary willpower. Failing to acknowledge that is setting ourselves up for failure.

    You need to stop making assumptions. I never said true weight loss was an easy test of willpower. Why do you think it impresses people so much when folks genuinely succeed? Not many do. That is a fact. But do you really think the kind of people that go hmmm i wonder if I have the willpower succeed? No it's the kind of people that simply refuse to fail that succeed. I never said losing weight was easy. I simply said that it was directly in our control.
  • Posts: 212 Member
    Well!


    Guess we'll just have to prove that study wrong, won't we?

    woohoo! this ^ :D
  • Posts: 588 Member

    woohoo! this ^ :D

    Yep. Almost all "diets" fail while almost all "lifestyle changes" succeed.
  • Posts: 1,888 Member

    Yep. Almost all "diets" fail while almost all "lifestyle changes" succeed.

    Almost all "lifestyle changes" succeed? You got any evidence to back up that rather incredible claim?
  • Posts: 2,407 Member
    That's because most people don't diet in sustainable ways. They diet with too big a deficit and too restrictive a diet, they frequently don't exercise (which increases the risk of losing lean mass and slowing the metabolism in the process) and so they set themselves up for having a really hard time maintaining.

    Fact is that with the right approach and attitude, maintaining can be a lot easier, and is totally possible.

    It's really annoying that the scientists have concluded that health services etc should just give up, rather than have a radical overview about the effectiveness of the specific advice they're giving people for weight loss. How many doctors just stick people on 1200 cals/day diets? ... lots do. How many doctors advise people to lift weights to protect their lean mass while dieting? not many. ....... and most people don't even follow diets prescribed by their doctors, they do this cleanse or that fad.... there's so much misinformation out there it's no surprise that 95% of people fail to maintain long term... that doesn't mean it's impossible for people to lose weight and keep it off... it means the approaches that most people are taking to do that are flawed!!

    Seriously if scientists took that approach to any other field of science we'd never develop any technology because they'd just have given up the whole project on the grounds that their current approach wasn't working....

    This is an excellent concept, especially about the attitude about these studies - even with the obvious misinformation. Its like, what if they thought this way about Cancer? "Well, no sure-fire cure yet...probably should give up and stop trying."
  • Posts: 7,436 Member
    Why do so many people here automatically assume all the studies done around weight loss and maintenance are based off participants who lost weight with pills/fad diets/cleanses/etc?


    I've never seen a single person here post anything to back this assumption up. So it really just sounds, at this point, like wishful thinking.

    The assumption isn't that they all did fads, cleanses etc (at least not as far as I can see)...... the assumption is that they "went on a diet" then "went off their diet" and that they didn't make a conscious effort to make their diet sustainable or put much effort into the maintenance phase of dieting. The study was on a random sample of joe public......... when you consider people who diet in general... how many of them put in the effort to make sustainable lifestyle changes as opposed to looking for quick fixes, or even if they diet with sensible deficits and exercise, how many "go on a diet" then revert back to their old ways? There's a whole load of different mistakes being made by people (cleanses and fads being one of a whole range)..... no way is it the case that 95% of people are doomed to gain back weight no matter what they do. I don't believe that for one minute. For people who don't want to be in that statistic, they need to identify all the things that yo-yo dieters are doing wrong and avoid them, and identify what successful long-term maintainers are doing right, and do those things instead.
  • Posts: 8,911 Member

    Almost all "lifestyle changes" succeed? You got any evidence to back up that rather incredible claim?
    By definition of the phrase, a lifestyle change is permanent. Permanently being active and eating at maintenance is going to keep you at the weight you want to be. Q.E.D.
  • Posts: 24,208 Member

    The assumption isn't that they all did fads, cleanses etc (at least not as far as I can see)...... the assumption is that they "went on a diet" then "went off their diet" and that they didn't make a conscious effort to make their diet sustainable or put much effort into the maintenance phase of dieting. The study was on a random sample of joe public......... when you consider people who diet in general... how many of them put in the effort to make sustainable lifestyle changes as opposed to looking for quick fixes, or even if they diet with sensible deficits and exercise, how many "go on a diet" then revert back to their old ways? There's a whole load of different mistakes being made by people (cleanses and fads being one of a whole range)..... no way is it the case that 95% of people are doomed to gain back weight no matter what they do. I don't believe that for one minute. For people who don't want to be in that statistic, they need to identify all the things that yo-yo dieters are doing wrong and avoid them, and identify what successful long-term maintainers are doing right, and do those things instead.

    Tracking and life-style changes (exercise, active, selective food choices) perhaps? (Note - I don't necessarily agree with the low fat reasoning at the bottom of this post but it is one researcher's conclusion vs high fat diet (probably not isocaloric)
    Long-term weight loss maintenance in the United States.

    Kraschnewski JL1, Boan J, Esposito J, Sherwood NE, Lehman EB, Kephart DK, Sciamanna CN.
    Abstract

    CONTEXT:

    Although the rise in overweight and obesity in the United States is well documented, long-term weight loss maintenance (LTWLM) has been minimally explored.

    OBJECTIVE:

    The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence and correlates of LTWLM among US adults.

    DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS:

    We examined weight data from 14 306 participants (age 20-84 years) in the 1999-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We defined LTWLM as weight loss maintained for at least 1 year. We excluded individuals who were not overweight or obese at their maximum weight.

    RESULTS:

    Among US adults who had ever been overweight or obese, 36.6, 17.3, 8.5 and 4.4% reported LTWLM of at least 5, 10, 15 and 20%, respectively. Among the 17.3% of individuals who reported an LTWLM of at least 10%, the average and median weight loss maintained was 19.1 kg (42.1 pounds) and 15.5 kg (34.1 pounds), respectively. LTWLM of at least 10% was higher among adults of ages 75-84 years (vs ages 20-34, adjusted odds ratio (OR): 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2, 1.8), among those who were non-Hispanic white (vs Hispanic, adjusted OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.0) and among those who were female (vs male, adjusted OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1, 1.3).

    CONCLUSIONS:

    More than one out of every six US adults who has ever been overweight or obese has accomplished LTWLM of at least 10%. This rate is significantly higher than those reported in clinical trials and many other observational studies, suggesting that US adults may be more successful at sustaining weight loss than previously thought.

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140106115351.htm
    esearchers from The Miriam Hospital have published one of the first studies of its kind to follow weight loss maintenance for individuals over a 10-year period. The results show that long-term weight loss maintenance is possible if individuals adhere to key health behaviors. The study is published in the January 2014 issue of the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.


    J. Graham Thomas, Ph.D., is the lead author on a 10-year observational study of self-reported weight loss and behavior change in nearly 3,000 participants. The participants had lost at least 30 pounds and had kept if off for at least one year when they were enrolled in the National Weight Control Registry (NWCR).

    The participants were then followed for 10 years. Thomas explains that the goal of the study was to determine how well they kept the weight off and to identify predictors of successful weight loss maintenance.

    Thomas says, "On average, participants maintained the majority of their weight loss over this extended follow-up period, and better success was related to continued performance of physical activity, self-weighing, low-fat diets, and avoiding overeating."

    Other findings from the study show that more than 87 percent of the participants were estimated to be still maintaining at least a 10 percent weight loss at years five and 10. The researchers found that a larger initial weight loss and longer duration of maintenance were associated with better long-term outcomes. Conversely, they found that decreases in physical activity, dietary restraint and self-weighing along with increases in fat intake were associated with greater weight regain.
  • Posts: 128 Member

    Tracking and life-style changes (exercise, active, selective food choices) perhaps? (Note - I don't necessarily agree with the low fat reasoning at the bottom of this post but it is one researcher's conclusion vs high fat diet (probably not isocaloric)

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140106115351.htm

    I think fundamentally the crux of the issue when people talk about successful maintenance is how much you keep off. I think a lot of people (myself included, tbh) see a 10% down from initial weight as not very successful, since in my case, I would still be still very obese with only a 10% maintained loss from my intial weight. I think that clouds the issue some.

    Interesting studies. I wonder why observational studies give a much higher rate of maintenance than trials do.
  • Posts: 24,208 Member
    Except it isn't 10% loss but at least 10%.
    Mean loss might be much higher.
This discussion has been closed.