Help me estimate my max heart rate...

I'll be 37 this week, so based on age, my "estimated" max heart rate is (220-37)183 bpm, by the most typical convention I've seen.

I just bought a heart rate monitor, and took it out for a spin on my jog tonight. I ran about 2 miles, which took me about 24 minutes (12 min mile, or about 5 mph), jogging the whole distance.

I averaged a 182 bpm rate, and peaked at 196 bpm on the last (of about three) slight inclines on my course. While I was jogging on a flat or downward grade, I was in the 180s and felt pretty good, and still didn't feel like I was at max exertion when I peaked at 196, but was definitely on the "vigorous" end of the spectrum.

I've only been jogging a few weeks, and have not been big into cardio. My resting heart rate is generally in the mid 50s, but I've clocked it as low as the high 40s when I'm super relaxed (just about to fall asleep, or just waking up from a restful sleep).

Based on this, what would you estimate my actual max heart rate to be?