Projected weight loss!!??

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shelleymclapo853
shelleymclapo853 Posts: 6
in Getting Started
Hello all,

I'm shell, from liverpool uk. 5 days in to calorie counting... I'm 5"3 and weigh 157lb...I'm being really strict with myself; and have set goals high, knowing I don't loose huge numbers, as I know I don't have huge numbers to loose, I want to loose 21lb to feel good ????

On the MFP app, I've just had my 'in 5 week you will weigh...' And apparently sticking to a low calorie diet I will only have dropped 5lb?!

So... To the ones who have been doing this longer... Is the projection normally accurate?

I would hope to loose 2lb+ in first week. I'm not unrealistic as the most I've ever lost in a week was 4lb on 800cal a day (Cambridge)

Thanks in advance!! Looking forward to replies ????????????????
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Replies

  • ABabilonia
    ABabilonia Posts: 622 Member
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    As long as you don't underestimate your calorie intake or overestimate your exercises the estimates are accurate. In my case, I've found some difficulties logging some meals, so I tend to overestimate my logs. The majority of my exercises are in the treadmill, so I don't have many issues there. Mathematically to lose 1 lb of fat you need to have a 3600 net calorie deficit, so an average of 515 caloric deficit per day will make you lose a pound per week, to lose two pounds per week you will need to double that.
  • markrichtsspraytan
    markrichtsspraytan Posts: 89 Member
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    1lb per week is actually very realistic for someone who isn't all that overweight. It's a healthy rate of weight loss. If you lose weight more rapidly than one or two pounds per week, you'll be either starving yourself or over-exercising and your result will be "skinny fat".
  • missiontofitness
    missiontofitness Posts: 4,074 Member
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    1lb per week is actually very realistic for someone who isn't all that overweight.

    Fact. Your projection seems like a healthy rate of weight loss.
  • TheCrawlingChaos
    TheCrawlingChaos Posts: 462 Member
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    I think I've read before that if you are losing more than 1% of your total weight per week that it's unhealthy and your body starts burning muscle. I wouldn't take my word on that because I may be remembering wrong, but I'd do some more research or ask your doctor if you are concerned.
  • shelleymclapo853
    shelleymclapo853 Posts: 6
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    Well... Have to say... Pleased.... Week one weigh in... 6lb off! More than ive ever lost In a first week weigh in ???????????? that'll do!

    Better than 5lb in 5 weeks right?!?!
  • sweet2def
    sweet2def Posts: 52 Member
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    Exactly! But it is your first week so you might not lose as much next week but can still get a good loss. The projected weightloss thingy, in my opinion, (which I don't tend to spread around too much on these forums as most of the so called adults aren't very good at maturely agreeing to disagree), is quite off. I disregard it every time I log as it is never accurate.







    Everyone else: Quote me, reply , complain to the moderators, I really don't care
  • BountyBunny87
    BountyBunny87 Posts: 7
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    Hey, this is my first day on here and I'm already been strick.

    Feel free to add me

    I'm looking to lose 3 stone
    X
  • Sued0nim
    Sued0nim Posts: 17,456 Member
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    I tracked mine for a few weeks ...wrote on my calendar what it said I would weigh in 5 weeks as I had huge doubts

    And yes it turned out to be quite accurate

    Actually I'm going to do that again ...it was interesting
  • sugarplumwitch
    sugarplumwitch Posts: 2
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    The fact that the weight loss projection is accurate is REALLY encouraging :smile: . And 6lbs in week!! That awesome! I've had big fast weight loss like that happen before but it was usually after my time-of-the-month which I assume was all water weight. :ohwell:
  • paomiamifl
    paomiamifl Posts: 61 Member
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    Exactly! But it is your first week so you might not lose as much next week but can still get a good loss. The projected weightloss thingy, in my opinion, (which I don't tend to spread around too much on these forums as most of the so called adults aren't very good at maturely agreeing to disagree), is quite off. I disregard it every time I log as it is never accurate.







    Everyone else: Quote me, reply , complain to the moderators, I really don't care

    I don't see a reason why any (mature) adult would fight with you! That said, I agree with you that many adults do behave very immaturely. In my case, I don't log calories, or exercise, or anything like that. MFP thingy has me at a projected weight loss of 1.3 a week. Somehow, it ends up evening out! This week, I lost 1.4!
    It's not always the case, some weeks I lose one pound only. But meh, I guess as long as we lose, it's what matters no? I do think it is entirely possible to lose more than 2 pounds a week safely, for example, so I guess I'm on the same boat as you in terms of people disagreeing with me. :)
  • fabulousmomma
    fabulousmomma Posts: 172 Member
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    Can someone please explain to me what a calorie deficit is exactly, how it works exactly, and how to achieve it?
    Feel free to dumb it down! Lol
    Thanks
  • ChrisM8971
    ChrisM8971 Posts: 1,067 Member
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    Well... Have to say... Pleased.... Week one weigh in... 6lb off! More than ive ever lost In a first week weigh in ???????????? that'll do!

    Better than 5lb in 5 weeks right?!?!

    No not really

    Congratulations on losing that weight and a big drop is sometimes expected in the first week because of losing water weight, however you really want to slow this down.

    When you haven't got much weight to lose how you lose is less important than what it is that you are losing. When you lose too fast you are going to lose a high proportion of muscle mass rather than fat, which is not good.

    Aim for 1lb per week and do this in a healthy way
  • Dragn77
    Dragn77 Posts: 810 Member
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    Exactly! But it is your first week so you might not lose as much next week but can still get a good loss. The projected weightloss thingy, in my opinion, (which I don't tend to spread around too much on these forums as most of the so called adults aren't very good at maturely agreeing to disagree), is quite off. I disregard it every time I log as it is never accurate.







    Everyone else: Quote me, reply , complain to the moderators, I really don't care

    Im filing a complaint!!! Hehehe, no actually I agree with you on this. The first week seems to be the biggest amount of loss, due to water loss and the body suddenly dealing with this whole change. And then after that, seems to slow dramatically from there.

    I like looking at the projected weight loss, its the stuff dreams are made of..especially when I eat within cal goal but have done more fitness wise (I dont eat back all my exercise calories)... Like yesterday, it said if everyday is like today, I would be 173 in 5 weeks. The day before that, it said i would be 182 in 5 weeks. (Im 186 right now)

    My cals / fitness vary way too much on a daily basis...every day for the next 5 weeks will *never* be exactly like "today" so I take the projected weight loss with a grain of salt, and focus more on my weekly average than on my daily average.
  • hortensehildegarde
    hortensehildegarde Posts: 592 Member
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    Can someone please explain to me what a calorie deficit is exactly, how it works exactly, and how to achieve it?
    Feel free to dumb it down! Lol
    Thanks

    Calories is a measure of energy. Your body uses energy to keep you alive. Energy comes from food. If you don't eat enough food to provide your body with enough energy, your body will pull energy from internal stored places (fat, muscle, etc.)

    A calorie deficit is when you are not eating enough food to provide your body with all the energy it needs so it pulls from internal stores instead. A calorie surplus is when you eat food that your body doesn't need all the energy from so it stores some up as fat (or whatever it stores it as).

    You get a calorie deficit by eating less, but each person is a little different on what their personal deficit will be.

    Here is useful info on getting a deficit: http://www.myfitnesspal.com/topics/show/872212-you-re-probably-eating-more-than-you-think

    and OP the estimates are notoriously off at the beginning because of things like big drops in the first week from water weight or whatnot. Over time I think the estimates stabilize but they are off for some people due to improper tracking or improper estimates of burn (BMR, RMR or exercise calories can all easily be inaccurately estimated by MFP)
  • squishycatmew
    squishycatmew Posts: 151 Member
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    Yeah, the projected weight loss ends up totally off for me - for one thing, I don't necessarily eat my full goal every day (but I also have days when I eat over my goal, so it evens out), and I never deliberately eat back exercise calories, because I think most of them are vastly overestimated. I *am*, though, on average, losing at the weekly rate I'm aiming for, so I guess the projection would be right if I picked a day where I ate exactly my goal and didn't exercise much. (For reference, I'm 5'4.5", female, 28, and currently weigh 167 lbs, down from 207 in April. I just bumped my intake up to 1600/day, which is supposed to be 1lb/week weight loss. For the first three months, I consistently lost 2+ lbs most weeks, then my weight started fluctuating more, so now I sometimes go a few weeks without losing anything, or only losing .5 lbs, or even gaining a little, but then drop 2+ pounds, and then go a few weeks steadily at around 1lb/wk, etc. The overall trend remains downward, plus I do resistance/stability training 3x/week and walk everywhere, so I'm starting to be able to see some muscle definition.)
  • myrtille87
    myrtille87 Posts: 122 Member
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    1lb per week is normal.

    You may find you lose significantly more in the first 1-2 weeks, but that will be water weight. Once that's gone, 1 lb per week is a good rate.

    I am similar to you - bit taller and started a bit heavier, but only a bit overweight not huge. I'm 5ft6 and started at 165lbs. In my first week using MFP I lost 4lbs and in the 2nd and 3rd weeks I lost 2lbs (I was aiming for 1.5 per week at that point anyway). Now things have settled down, I seem to losing about 1lb per week, which is what I've got my calorie goal set to anyway.

    MFP won't predict that extra weight loss caused by initially dropping water weight - that's not part of the equation. MFPs maths is based on you losing 1lb per week if you eat 500 calories below maintenance each day. So if your maintenance level is 1,800 calories and you eat 1,300 per day, you should lose 1lb per week.
  • Liftng4Lis
    Liftng4Lis Posts: 15,150 Member
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    For me the projected weight loss has never been accurate. Everyone is different.
  • fabulousmomma
    fabulousmomma Posts: 172 Member
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    Can someone please explain to me what a calorie deficit is exactly, how it works exactly, and how to achieve it?
    Feel free to dumb it down! Lol
    Thanks

    Calories is a measure of energy. Your body uses energy to keep you alive. Energy comes from food. If you don't eat enough food to provide your body with enough energy, your body will pull energy from internal stored places (fat, muscle, etc.)

    A calorie deficit is when you are not eating enough food to provide your body with all the energy it needs so it pulls from internal stores instead. A calorie surplus is when you eat food that your body doesn't need all the energy from so it stores some up as fat (or whatever it stores it as).

    You get a calorie deficit by eating less, but each person is a little different on what their personal deficit will be.

    Here is useful info on getting a deficit: http://www.myfitnesspal.com/topics/show/872212-you-re-probably-eating-more-than-you-think

    and OP the estimates are notoriously off at the beginning because of things like big drops in the first week from water weight or whatnot. Over time I think the estimates stabilize but they are off for some people due to improper tracking or improper estimates of burn (BMR, RMR or exercise calories can all easily be inaccurately estimated by MFP)

    Thanks So much...I get it now!
    :wink:
  • fabulousmomma
    fabulousmomma Posts: 172 Member
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    1lb per week is normal.

    You may find you lose significantly more in the first 1-2 weeks, but that will be water weight. Once that's gone, 1 lb per week is a good rate.

    I am similar to you - bit taller and started a bit heavier, but only a bit overweight not huge. I'm 5ft6 and started at 165lbs. In my first week using MFP I lost 4lbs and in the 2nd and 3rd weeks I lost 2lbs (I was aiming for 1.5 per week at that point anyway). Now things have settled down, I seem to losing about 1lb per week, which is what I've got my calorie goal set to anyway.

    MFP won't predict that extra weight loss caused by initially dropping water weight - that's not part of the equation. MFPs maths is based on you losing 1lb per week if you eat 500 calories below maintenance each day. So if your maintenance level is 1,800 calories and you eat 1,300 per day, you should lose 1lb per week.

    What is your calorie goal?
    Im 5'6 too, and currently weigh 173. I think I have my calorie goal set too low. I have 1200. It seems like I cant eat that much, even if it is healthy.
  • NatalieABH
    NatalieABH Posts: 8
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    It has never ever been accurate for me either - I'm now basing my calories on TDEE rather than MFP, so when I eat up to and over my goal MFP tells me I'm going to be max like 1lb smaller in 5 weeks.

    Even though I know I'm using a different system so the the projection isn't accurate anyway, there's still a little part of me that thinks "HA! I'll show you myfitness pal ..... I will NOT weigh the same in 5 weeks, just you wait and see!"

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