Don't understand MFP predictions

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because there isn't enough of a deficit between your maintenance and your Net calorie goal. If you aren't that overweight you can't get the deficit without going too low on calories which can have the opposite effect. You have to change your goals.

I was in the upper range of healthy when I started and tried for 2lbs per week but it was impossible. I had to go with .5lbs. Set it for .5lbs per week. This will also give you more calories to eat per day. At least keep your NET calories at or above your BMR this is the number you get from the calculator under Tools - this number is what your body burns just functioning - I call it my 'comatose' number).

MFP will not go below 1200 because this is baseline number for starvation mode. If you consume too few calories it can have a very bad effect on weight loss and on your health. (and you will lose more lean muscle mass than fat which will slow your metabolism).

Please read "links in MFP you want to read again and again". Read through all the links in that and you will get your answer.

This is great for explaining too.

The law of unintended consequences
Your body is an amazing feedback system aimed at balance and survival. Humans are at the top of the food chain because they are able to adapt to their environment. Every action produces a reaction. Every change in its environment triggers a survival response. It's important to keep that in mind when you plan your fitness program. If you treat your body as an enemy to be conquered, you'll produce unintended results.

For example, if you severely cut off the supply of food to your body, it will defend itself by slowing down its metabolism to survive starvation. The body will shed muscle mass the same way that you would throw cargo from a plane that was low on fuel, and it will reduce its thyroid activity to conserve energy. The body will also actually defend its fat stores. In anorexia, muscle loss can be so profound that fat as a percentage of body weight actually rises. Extreme carbohydrate restriction also causes muscle loss, dehydration, and slower metabolism, which is why even successful Atkins dieters can have a significant rebound in weight after they stop the diet (don't worry – the advice on this site will prevent that from happening).

As another example, if you put your body under stress through overexertion and lack of sleep, it will respond by slowing down, reducing muscle growth, and increasing your appetite for junk food, carbohydrates and fat. If you feed your body excessive amounts of sugar and quickly digested carbohydrates, and it will shut off its ability to burn fat until those sugars are taken out of the bloodstream.

This website will show you how to work with your body to quickly produce the changes you want. In order to do that, you need to take actions that push your body to adapt – to build strength, burn fat, and increase fitness. You need a training program, not an exercise routine. You need a nutrition plan, not a diet. You need a challenge, not a few good habits you usually try to follow except when you don't.

Setting the right goal
John Dewey once said that a problem well-stated is half-solved. If you want to reach your goal, you have to define it correctly. See, a lot of people say “I want to lose weight.” Well, if losing weight is your goal, go on a no-carb diet. You'll lose a lot of weight – some of it will be fat, a lot of it will be water, and a dangerous amount will be muscle tissue. You'll lose weight quickly, but you'll slow your metabolism and gain fat more quickly once you go off the diet. Trust me on this. I've been there, done that.

The problem is that you've set the wrong goal. If you want to look better, have more energy and enjoy better health, the goal is not simply to “lose weight.” The goal is to improve your fitness level and body composition. That means losing fat, improving your aerobic capacity, training your strength and defending your muscle tissue. You can't do that with a no-carb diet. You will do it using the approach you'll learn on this website. Trust me on this one too. I know what it's like to feel fat, tired and helplessly out of shape. The whole point of this site is to help others avoid that, by sharing lessons that I had to learn the hard way.

Ready to change?
Right this minute, your body is the way it is because it has adapted to the lifestyle you've thrown at it, in an attempt to survive. Ever seen the directory at the mall with the little red arrow that says “you are here”? Well, fitness is the same way. You are here. You can't start anywhere else. So be kind to yourself. Don't beat yourself up. Don't worry about how much there is to do. Change your self-talk from “My body is my enemy” to “My body is my partner.” Accept where you are right now as the starting point, and start moving.

Changing your body requires more than just “going on a diet” for a few weeks. If you want to change your body, you have to make some changes to your lifestyle (which requires some discipline, but isn't as hard as it sounds). If you create the right environment, your body will adapt to it by becoming leaner, stronger, and more energetic. You can do this.

http://www.hussmanfitness.org/html/TPAdaptation.html

I'm not sure everything on this site is accurate. They keep raising the weight I'd be at in five weeks. They also change the daily calorie goal too.

That is by design. If you exercise, you are adding calories to consume to your daily goal. Your daily goal has a deficit already built in, so when you burn extra calories, you need to eat extra calories to maintain your same deficit. Likewise, when you do not eat your goal calories, it will reflect in the 'five weeks weight loss'.

. I think the exercise /calories burned part has to be carefully considered. For example, I took a kickboxing class at the gym yesterday.For 60 minutes, this site says I burned over 1000 calories. I know I didn't burn anywhere near that many because physical limitations in the form of hip replacement prevented me from doing everything in the class.

It is inaccurate for you due to your special circumstances. They are estimates, and they are based an average workout. Even with an heart rate monitor, it is still an estimated value (though the more featured devices are more accurate than the lower cost ones).