Lag time for caloric daily net gain or loss to show up in weight gain or loss

donjtomasco · March 2015

So I am tracking my weight loss in many different ways (because I just love analysis). In one way of my tracking, I list my daily caloric intake versus my goal (the net + or - number). I track this in 7 day intervals and beside each total is my morning weight for that day. So, after 7 days I can add up my daily gain or loss for my caloric intake, then divide it by 3,500 (to get how much I lost "caloricly" in pounds).

I am doing this because I am interested to see how long it takes for how much we consume to show up on the scale.

So, each week I calculate how much I lost according to the myfitnesspal daily calories taken in versus my goal (which have lots of wiggle room since it is impossible to exactly calculate how much exercise we actually get daily, how 100% accurately log in actualy calories consumed.

So.......for the first 5 weeks were these two weight calculations could be compared, the following was recorded:

Week 1, 2.02 pounds lost in my caloric intake deficit, versus 1.28 lost on the scale
Week 2, 1.56 lost 0.74
Week 3, 2.28 lost 1.54
Week 4, 2.16 lost 4.15

Week 4 was the first week where Scale Pounds Lost exceeded Caloric Intake Pounds Lost.

Hence, my curiosity as to if there is a rule of them on how these two correlate or if there is any correlation at all. I googled my fingers off and could not find a thing about this.

Sorry if this is confusing. If anyone can shed light on this topic I would be SO SO SO SO SO grateful.

malibu927 · March 2015

Weight loss is not linear. You can do everything right--weigh to the exact calorie, use a HRM--and gain weight over the week. Be glad you aren't a female who has to deal with that constantly.

lemon629 · March 2015

I think there is probably a 1-2 week, or maybe longer, lag between calories in and calories out. There are probably tons of variables as to why sometimes a loss shows up quickly and sometimes there is a long lag, e.g., water weight, carb intake, your menstrual cycle, how well you're sleeping, etc. So look at the month overall. It appears that at the end of the month your totals match, just not in a linear fashion.

I would say if you go longer than a month where the calculation and scale don't match within a pound or so, you need to reduce your calorie budget.

donjtomasco · March 2015

Thank you both!!!

runningforthetrain · March 2015

I love analysis too! I think you could calculate an "average lag time" Not sure how many weeks data you would need-statistics are a little rusty- but, I would guess you'd need a lot more than 4 weeks data... especially since the some calories entered are approximate and not exact which would skew the results. Let me check with my stats buddies...

misscaligreen · March 2015

donjtomasco wrote: »

So I am tracking my weight loss in many different ways (because I just love analysis). In one way of my tracking, I list my daily caloric intake versus my goal (the net + or - number). I track this in 7 day intervals and beside each total is my morning weight for that day. So, after 7 days I can add up my daily gain or loss for my caloric intake, then divide it by 3,500 (to get how much I lost "caloricly" in pounds).

I am doing this because I am interested to see how long it takes for how much we consume to show up on the scale.

So, each week I calculate how much I lost according to the myfitnesspal daily calories taken in versus my goal (which have lots of wiggle room since it is impossible to exactly calculate how much exercise we actually get daily, how 100% accurately log in actualy calories consumed.

So.......for the first 5 weeks were these two weight calculations could be compared, the following was recorded:

Week 1, 2.02 pounds lost in my caloric intake deficit, versus 1.28 lost on the scale
Week 2, 1.56 lost 0.74
Week 3, 2.28 lost 1.54
Week 4, 2.16 lost 4.15

Week 4 was the first week where Scale Pounds Lost exceeded Caloric Intake Pounds Lost.

Hence, my curiosity as to if there is a rule of them on how these two correlate or if there is any correlation at all. I googled my fingers off and could not find a thing about this.

Sorry if this is confusing. If anyone can shed light on this topic I would be SO SO SO SO SO grateful.

The difference between the two is only .31 easily just error in calorie counting, overestimating calories burned, water retention, building muscle or a combination of the all of those factors? I have heard that the USDA allows 20% margin of error in calorie count on packaging labels. Very interesting! Thanks for posting this

donjtomasco · March 2015

Thanks running. I am expecting a pattern to develop, just not sure what it will be. Having ALL information recorded daily allow me to tweek my studies.

donjtomasco · March 2015

Misscali, GREAT point. The difference in nominal but I was to macro into it. This makes better sense to me. I think I will sleep better.

misscaligreen · March 2015

hahahahah Glad to hear it

sleep well btw good job on the analysis AND the weight loss!

britishbeau · March 2015

But its not that simple, theres other factors to consider, like sleep, stress and hormone levels, i like a good analysis too but im not sure if you can totally do it with this

donjtomasco · March 2015

I agree Brit. I know that part of it is psychological for me. I am prone to that "the sky is falling" thing. If I wake up and weigh the same or picked up some weight from the day before, even if my trend is really good, that ONE WEIGH IN can sink me. Sooooo, I found that looking at concrete info helps keep me in a better frame of mind (this time). So I got a three ring note book and some graph paper and just plotted stats in different ways on different sheets, and it really helped to show me that disaster was in fact not at my front door, maybe I was in a semi plateau, but it actually motivated me to get back out there and stay focused instead of considering throwing in the towel.

That may sound crazy, but my brain will do crazy things to me. Charts, graphs and analysis of real info on where I am from where I started, and everything in between, FOR ME, keeps me grounded to fight another 15 minutes or day.

Luckily I kept my daily info from my last weight loss project in 2013 which lasted for 8.5 weeks. I have done a day by day comparison of those 8.5 weeks versus my daily journey this time (I am in week 7 right now). I know that the last time I really had no plan except to "lose weight" and I remember clearly how I would starve (skip meals) in order to "get that scale weight" that I wanted so badly, which worked, but of course, it was followed by (for me) that desire to gorge myself and reward myself. I did not yo-yo during that 2013 program, but I did hit a very obvious plateau (which shows up on my graph) and I now understand why and what was going on then. I have pledged to myself not to fall victim of those short term psychological needs this time, and so far I have been successful. But I think it really has helped to have these various statistical analysis's at my fingertips to peruse and calm my tricky brain down when I am having those "throw in the towel" moments.

I really did not think I could do this again at 52, but surprisingly I am seeing that age (for me) seems to not be a factor, age is just a number. Sure my muscles are not building like they used to, but the weight is coming off consistently.

My goal starting out this time was to lose 1 pound per week and to not strive for ANY OTHER NUMBER. If I did better then super. If I did worse, then I would just keep searching for new solutions. So far so good. If I even lose .5 pounds, or .00001 pounds per week, but over time I consistently continue to lose (while diligentlly lifting and doing my cardio) then I also know that I am shifting (hopefully) the fat into muscle (I keep that thought in mind WHENEVER I miss my number on the scale). That "positive thinking thing" - and well it partly SHOULD be true. If WE are doing weights and cardio, weight should be shifting. So ZERO loss should at least be translating into a physical improvement. Hence, any loss on the scale on top of ZERO is a good thing, no matter how small.

Okay, so putting this down into messages seems to also be motivational to me. I missed my number this morning on the scale, but now I am motivated to focus on the here and now and not worry about what my eye's saw at 8:15 this morning.

sconnaway42 · March 2015

we could be best friends. i am a numbers person also. i also am right there with you on the "sky is falling" thing...a 3 lb gain for a few days while staying under cals & doing HIIT makes me feel like the world is an unfair place. i weigh every morning so i know what's normal fluctuation for me and how long it lasts. this has me stomping my feet! i think it's great that you calculate and analyze everything, if that what keeps you motivated

donjtomasco · March 2015

Thanks Sconnaway!!!. Yesterday was kind of a pivotal day in that the scale pissed me off in the morning, but I refocused and concentrated on only the day ahead. I refilled my one gallon bottle jug and keep up my water intake.

This morning I hit a new low weight on the scale so it is just a reminder to not let little hurdles derail me. It was a pleasant exercise to input this mornings numbers and see that progress is still occuring.

bluejade16 · March 2015

This is fantastic. I had been hoping someone would do this kind of analysis and share the data. I also hate that I'm supposed to have (according to MFP) lost 4 or 5 pounds by now, but in have have lost about 2.5-3. I am hoping some of it is more muscle, and more muscle retaining water, but it does seem like an unfair place when the numbers don't add up. Don't get discouraged! Looks like you're doing great.

donjtomasco · March 2015

Well like we have all read throughout MFP, the data input is what is so critical. I really see how easily non-reporting can add up. I had not really considered "I can't believe it is butter" spread on a piece of toast was actually 60 calories, multiplied by two pieces of whole grain bread, well, that is 120 calories I was considering "not a big deal" before. Or the sauce that goes on some of our home made "healthy meals", there is another 40-60 calories. There is a healthy takeout restaurant near our home and we will get healthy salads from them. I always eat the saltine crackers - uh, not any more @ 35-40 calories per packet of 4? Times 6-8 packets, then the croutons I was eating that I considered "NOMINAL"? AT some point all of the little unimportant condiments add up to full meals. I am working too hard to lift and cardio and watch my calories to blow calories on these calorie busters. BUT, I can see where they were really messing with my "plan". I had built in fudge factors for undercounting but suddenly saw how it was probably worse then I thought and some days I was probably over my maintain caloric intake. Just crazy stuff, but hell, this is why we are all here. So I think I have seen immediate positive results in the last few weeks from this easily overlooked sesspool of hidden calories that surround me at every turn.

emc2fit · March 2015

donjtomasco wrote: »

So I am tracking my weight loss in many different ways (because I just love analysis). In one way of my tracking, I list my daily caloric intake versus my goal (the net + or - number). I track this in 7 day intervals and beside each total is my morning weight for that day. So, after 7 days I can add up my daily gain or loss for my caloric intake, then divide it by 3,500 (to get how much I lost "caloricly" in pounds).

I am doing this because I am interested to see how long it takes for how much we consume to show up on the scale.

So, each week I calculate how much I lost according to the myfitnesspal daily calories taken in versus my goal (which have lots of wiggle room since it is impossible to exactly calculate how much exercise we actually get daily, how 100% accurately log in actualy calories consumed.

So.......for the first 5 weeks were these two weight calculations could be compared, the following was recorded:

Week 1, 2.02 pounds lost in my caloric intake deficit, versus 1.28 lost on the scale
Week 2, 1.56 lost 0.74
Week 3, 2.28 lost 1.54
Week 4, 2.16 lost 4.15

Week 4 was the first week where Scale Pounds Lost exceeded Caloric Intake Pounds Lost.

Hence, my curiosity as to if there is a rule of them on how these two correlate or if there is any correlation at all. I googled my fingers off and could not find a thing about this.

Sorry if this is confusing. If anyone can shed light on this topic I would be SO SO SO SO SO grateful.

So glad you wrote this post, I've often wondered about this too. For example I've had a couple of bad weekends and made some poor diet choices, not to mention massively exceeding my calorie goal, and the first week I was back to my normal weight within a few days. However on the second binge I gained weight that I'd like to think of as 'true fat gain'. I suspect the first binge weight was largely the influx of carbs and salt causing increased water retention. Anyway I'm getting off topic, the point I'm making is I'd like to know if there's a lag on calories in vs calories out. At what point does your body think 'right, time to metabolize some fat'? Or the other way around even.

That's not helpful but I'd really like to know if you come up with anything from your stats as I've often noticed similar patterns. A word to the wise though, get some body calipers to measure your body mass ratio, I found it helpful when the scale wasn't budging because it showed I had in fact gained muscle and lost fat at the same time so no overall weight loss. Not bad hey!

Sued0nim · March 2015

You might have more luck plotting your weight on something like trendweight.com or happyscale app or similar so that you can get fluctuations across time and an overall trendline

Because weight is made up of water weight too which fluctuates for many reasons and can hide fat loss

donjtomasco · March 2015

Good point rabbit. I think I need to be able to pull out my 3 ring binder and unfold my ever expending graph paper (taped together as I add weeks) and be able to touch it, feel it, and punch numbers into my calculator. Maybe this is my 52 years of age showing, but it just feels good to lay my "stuff" out on the counter to look at, visualize and tweek when I see a potential flaw in my study.

Hey EMC, I am waiting for a trend to show itself, nothing yet. I have posted a specific question in MFP and not gotten a scientific answer back yet.

I just emailed a trainer at Gold's Gym and if I get any kind of good answer I will post a reply here.

donjtomasco · March 2015

So the lag time that I got from the head trainer at Gold's was 24-48 hours. Really no lag time unless retention of water due to excessive sodium intake.

Lag time for caloric daily net gain or loss to show up in weight gain or loss

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