Can Anyone Explain To Me...

snickerscharlie
snickerscharlie Posts: 8,578 Member
edited November 2024 in Health and Weight Loss
...the purpose of the wildly inaccurate "if every day were like today..." calculation?

I have just reached that magical "five weeks from now" point for the first time. Yay me! o:)

At the end of each day, I've pushed the "Complete This Entry" button after having diligently weighed and logged every morsel that passed my lips. I've gazed in blissful amazement at my projected weight 5 weeks down the line. I am truly inspired!

So how come I'm now at that magical five week mark, having constantly improved on those first day caloric choices, met every benchmark that's been set (and then some!), recalculated my settings as needed, yet my actual five week weight is no where near that magical number that was predicted on the first day? To have attained that goal, I would, literally, have had to starve myself beyond anything that could have been even remotely considered healthy.

Does this happen to a lot of people here, or am I just a speshul snowflake? B)

Replies

  • cwolfman13
    cwolfman13 Posts: 41,865 Member
    It's called a projection....a forecast of you will. If you ever have worked with projections, you know that they can be inaccurate...and they are only as accurate as the data going in.

    For example, how accurately have you set your profile and activity level? How accurate are you in your logging (do you use a food scale)? How accurate are your exercise burns, etc?

    Beyond that, projecting future events is always somewhat of a crap shoot...I work with projections every day...things come up...things change. In regards to MFP, I would highly doubt that every day for you was exactly the same.

    Also, weight loss isn't a linear function and that little projection is just based on a very simplistic mathematical formula.

    Don't worry about it...worry about getting your nutrition and fitness on...losing weight and maintaining a healthy weight is a bi-product of living a healthful lifestyle...just go do that and eventually the rest falls into place. I know it's cliche, but this isn't a sprint...you need to get your head in the right place and get into this for the long haul...5 weeks is jack *kitten* in the grand scheme....it's nothing.
  • ncboiler89
    ncboiler89 Posts: 2,408 Member
    Ignore that number
  • snickerscharlie
    snickerscharlie Posts: 8,578 Member
    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    It's called a projection....a forecast of you will. If you ever have worked with projections, you know that they can be inaccurate...and they are only as accurate as the data going in.

    For example, how accurately have you set your profile and activity level? How accurate are you in your logging (do you use a food scale)? How accurate are your exercise burns, etc?

    Beyond that, projecting future events is always somewhat of a crap shoot...I work with projections every day...things come up...things change. In regards to MFP, I would highly doubt that every day for you was exactly the same.

    Also, weight loss isn't a linear function and that little projection is just based on a very simplistic mathematical formula.

    Don't worry about it...worry about getting your nutrition and fitness on...losing weight and maintaining a healthy weight is a bi-product of living a healthful lifestyle...just go do that and eventually the rest falls into place. I know it's cliche, but this isn't a sprint...you need to get your head in the right place and get into this for the long haul...5 weeks is jack *kitten* in the grand scheme....it's nothing.

    Thanks, wolfman.

    My activity level is set appropriately. I weigh everything. I use a Fitbit to accurately measure my steps.

    And you're right - every day *wasn't* exactly the same - I actually constantly *improved* both reducing my caloric intake from that very first day and increasing my activity level. And that first day "in five weeks" projection was based on me having initially set my weight loss goal to 1 lb a week, too. Three weeks later, I upped that to 1.5 lbs per week, which reduced my caloric intake guidelines even more - and I have been under that allotment every single day.

    I do understand that this projection is just an estimate. I just find that, for me, it's a rather demotivational one, which, I'm assuming, is the opposite of its actual intent. :\
  • kristydi
    kristydi Posts: 781 Member
    I actually avoid pushing the button to finish the day because that feature annoys me.
  • scottacular
    scottacular Posts: 597 Member
    I see that figure as nothing more than a trend, don't look at that number as something you'll definitely be in five weeks - but as an indicator of how much progress you're currently making.
  • cwolfman13
    cwolfman13 Posts: 41,865 Member
    Also keep in mind that it's a moving target...it's 5 weeks from every day you close out your diary....

    Are you somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 Lbs down since you started? If so, then your trend is more or less accurate.
  • CaffeinatedConfectionist
    CaffeinatedConfectionist Posts: 1,046 Member
    edited March 2015
    kristydi wrote: »
    I actually avoid pushing the button to finish the day because that feature annoys me.

    Yeah, if you find it demotivational do as this person does and just don't "complete" your entry. Completing it serves no purpose aside from publishing it on your news feed and giving you the little projection.
  • snickerscharlie
    snickerscharlie Posts: 8,578 Member
    ncboiler89 wrote: »
    Ignore that number
    I plan to do just that, now that I know it's stupid. B)

    I do wonder why the predictions are so unrealistically optimistic, though, and why this automatic calculation can't be changed to reflect something a little more attainable?

  • NobodyPutsAmyInTheCorner
    NobodyPutsAmyInTheCorner Posts: 1,018 Member
    I have a good giggle at mine. Friday I was projected to be 10st12 and after yesterday's logging it said 11st2lb projected. It varies massively so I just ignore it and keep sticking to my own visible trend.
  • snickerscharlie
    snickerscharlie Posts: 8,578 Member
    edited March 2015
    double post. :\
  • snickerscharlie
    snickerscharlie Posts: 8,578 Member
    CaffeinatedConfectionist wrote: »
    kristydi wrote: »
    I actually avoid pushing the button to finish the day because that feature annoys me.

    Yeah, if you find it demotivational do as this person does and just don't "complete" your entry. Completing it serves no purpose aside from publishing it on your news feed and giving you the little projection.

    Thanks, CC!

  • DearestWinter
    DearestWinter Posts: 595 Member
    I love this feature even though it's inaccurate. When I'm on track then it's extra motivation. And if I have a terrible day then I get a wake-up call.

    Slightly off topic - I used to use another site to track things (nearly a decade ago) and remember they had the same feature. Really liked it then too.
  • snickerscharlie
    snickerscharlie Posts: 8,578 Member
    I think it would be an amazing feature if it was a bit more accurate. As it stands now, it sucks. Not sure why it's even here, or why it can't be fixed to be a little more realistic. :\
  • Lounmoun
    Lounmoun Posts: 8,423 Member
    I just look at the prediction and think that someday I will get there if I keep this up. I don't know if 5 weeks ago it said exactly the weight I am at now or not.
  • hollyrayburn
    hollyrayburn Posts: 905 Member
    I once saw a post, the person said they wanted to "test" it. So they are the exact same thing, down to exact weights, and did the exact exercise, for the length of time indicated on the projection (me? I'd die from the repetition!), and it was not even close at the end of their experiment. Haha, just
    Goes
    To show this isn't an exact science, just trial and error:)
  • LAWoman72
    LAWoman72 Posts: 2,846 Member
    edited March 2015
    I don't bother with it. I don't hit my calorie goal exactly anyway (though I do record exactly what my calories are each day), so even if MFP's projection were accurate - and I don't think it is - I won't be hitting their "goal" in the exact time frame. So to me, it's not very useful either way. I know approximately how much I want to lose per week, I usually land about in that territory based on my CICO, and I just keep on keepin' on.
  • snickerscharlie
    snickerscharlie Posts: 8,578 Member
    Lounmoun wrote: »
    I just look at the prediction and think that someday I will get there if I keep this up. I don't know if 5 weeks ago it said exactly the weight I am at now or not.

    See, maybe that's my mistake. I actually *did* look back because I was curious, and I've been logging for exactly five weeks, now. :)
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