5 week prediction

RecoveringMission
RecoveringMission Posts: 8
edited November 2024 in Getting Started
Ok so I'm sick if asking people if they know whether the 5 week prediction is accurate instead I'm going to cop on and test it for myself, I will walk twice everyday totalling to 3 hours and never eat more than my set calorie goal and in 5 weeks I shall hopefully be 141.7 lbs but to be honest anywhere near that would make me ecstatic, I appreciate any help or if anyone wants to test it starting tomorrow, feel free to message me daily reminding me to stick to it and wish me luck!

Replies

  • melaniecheeks
    melaniecheeks Posts: 6,349 Member
    It's a computer algorithm, not a crystal ball.

    What are you going to do with your results?
  • RecoveringMission
    RecoveringMission Posts: 8
    What do you mean? @melaniecheeks with regards my results if I get what I aim to I'm going to use them to push me to get my next 5 weeks
  • Dragn77
    Dragn77 Posts: 810 Member
    edited April 2015
    I keep fierce records... Let me save you 5 weeks:

    Average Net Calories Consumed Mar 9-15: 1,164
    Average Predicted Weight: 170.4

    Average Net Calories Consumed Apr 13-19: 1,152
    Average Actual Weight: 180.2

    Not only my were my days within "if you consume this same amount" it actually ended up being less on average... and yet my weight is 10 lbs over what it predicted it would be.

    Ive lost an average 1.5/lbs a week, and so far have been pretty on track with my own predicted rate of loss according to my records...which isn't ever remotely close to the "You would weight this much" number that MFP gives me.

    So yeah, nothing to take seriously *at all*
  • ksousa2
    ksousa2 Posts: 13 Member
    Thanks for the reply Dragn77. There I was, removing my strawberries one by one and hitting 'complete entry' like an idiot, refusing to be a few grams above the previous days estimate!
  • RecoveringMission
    RecoveringMission Posts: 8
    @Dragn77 have you tried predicting your own weight loss using calorie Maintenon and calories burned numbers?
  • Dragn77
    Dragn77 Posts: 810 Member
    edited April 2015
    LoL @ksousa2 !!!! Yeah, you don't have to torture yourself like that! hehehehe

    @Recoveringmay I have about 3 convoluted spreadsheets that I update on a daily and weekly basis, tracking my cals eaten (I weigh my food) cals burned (I use an HMR) plus I update my RMR / TDEE info, and I predict my weight on a next week, as well as for the next 4 weeks basis.

    Ive been doing this over the past 10 weeks (though I keep adding to and making my spreadsheets more and more insane) and so far, my weight has been at or even slightly below my own calculations. I love number crunching though, Im a certified nerd and its an unhealthy obsession of mine :blush:
  • Ninkyou
    Ninkyou Posts: 6,666 Member
    edited April 2015
    Take the prediction with a grain of salt. Use it as *maybe* a guide as to what to possibly expect, but don't swear by it.

    TBH, out of curiosity, last year I did track it. Here's a small excerpt (last number between dashes was my actual weight):
    7/5 195.2 in 5 weeks (8/9) --194.0--
    7/6 194.3 in 5 weeks (8/10) --193.6--
    7/7 195.4 in 5 weeks (8/11) --193.2--
    7/8 194.0 in 5 weeks (8/12) --193.8--
    7/9 193.1 in 5 weeks (8/13) --192.0--
    7/10 193.5 in 5 weeks (8/14)--192.6--
    7/11 192.9 in 5 weeks (8/15)--192.0--
    7/12 192.2 in 5 weeks (8/16)--192.6--
    7/13 192.1 in 5 weeks (8/17)--192.4--
    7/14 193.1 in 5 weeks (8/18)--192.0--
    7/15 193.1 in 5 weeks (8/19)--191.4--
    7/16 193.1 in 5 weeks (8/20)--191.4--
    7/17 192.8 in 5 weeks (8/21)--191.8--
    7/18 191.1 in 5 weeks (8/22)--191.4--
    7/19 191.7 in 5 weeks (8/23)--191.8--
    7/20 191.1 in 5 weeks (8/24)--190.4--
    7/21 189.9 in 5 weeks (8/25)--191.0--
    7/22 189.7 in 5 weeks (8/26)--190.4--
    7/23 190.2 in 5 weeks (8/27)--190.8--
    7/24 188.6 in 5 weeks (8/28)--190.0--

    Point being, don't let the prediction rule over you. Trying to get the lowest number possible by taking off strawberries seems very disordered to me. Don't walk that line.
  • RecoveringMission
    RecoveringMission Posts: 8
    @Dragn77 I have an activity tracker watch and I made a spreadsheet countless times but I'm afraid it won't be accurate even though with each weeks calculated weight loss I reduce my maintenance
  • Dragn77
    Dragn77 Posts: 810 Member
    @RecoveringMission Yup, I use a Fitbit Flex and count my negative calories and such that it gives me. Only way you'll know for sure if your calculations work or not is to ride it out...Ive been keeping track of everythign daily for a two and a half months now... In that time Ive made a lot of adjustments and so far so good.

    I have no idea if something is working until Ive been doing it for 3 or 4 weeks to be honest...even my calculations. Im still learning as I go along. But for sure...the more time that goes by, the more all these numbers Im gathering start to mean something.
  • RecoveringMission
    RecoveringMission Posts: 8
    @Dragn77 that's encouraging to hear, with my calculations I made I could be 140 in 5 weeks but I'm afraid that won't happen and that scares me
  • ksousa2
    ksousa2 Posts: 13 Member
    Can someone explain these negative calories and such? What do I need to do? Should I get a fitbit?
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