Confused about 'if every day were like today...'

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Jenna8915
Jenna8915 Posts: 17 Member
in Health and Weight Loss
Hello!

I've been on MFP for 106 days now, and I feel like I have a fairly good handle on how it works, but this week it has been confusing me!

I have a daily calorie goal of 1370 calories daily, which I have been sticking to religiously (+ exercise calories, but that is not really relevant to this post). I have been losing approx 1.5lb per week since I started, which is over the 1lb goal I have set fot myself, and which I am more than happy with!

My confusion comes from the 'if every day were like today' weight loss projection given by MFP every day upon completion of my daily diary... even though I have been sticking below my calories, the projection says that I will gain weight by eating at my current intake!

Anyone else experienced this, or have any idea why it is happening!?

Thank you :)
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Replies

  • Blueseraphchaos
    Blueseraphchaos Posts: 843 Member
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    It could be a glitch. I have also noticed that higher sodium will give me that type of prediction, so you could have just had a higher-sodium day.
  • Editme12
    Editme12 Posts: 71 Member
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    The projection acknowledges that not all calories are created equal- so if you're only 20 calories below goal, yet those calories are all "junk" food, or perhaps high in sodium as the other person suggested, the projection will acknowledge that. I think I've only had it actually say I'll gain weight when I've gone over calorie budget though.
  • janejellyroll
    janejellyroll Posts: 25,763 Member
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    Editme12 wrote: »
    The projection acknowledges that not all calories are created equal- so if you're only 20 calories below goal, yet those calories are all "junk" food, or perhaps high in sodium as the other person suggested, the projection will acknowledge that. I think I've only had it actually say I'll gain weight when I've gone over calorie budget though.

    How does it determine which foods are "junk" foods? I had some days over the holidays where I ate a lot of foods that are commonly labelled "junk," but my projection didn't change.
  • Editme12
    Editme12 Posts: 71 Member
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    janejellyroll wrote: »

    How does it determine which foods are "junk" foods? I had some days over the holidays where I ate a lot of foods that are commonly labelled "junk," but my projection didn't change.

    Well, from what I've noticed in mine, it depends on things like sugar and fat in addition to just calories. For example, if I eat normal, healthy food totaling 1500 calories and I go to Chili's and end up with 1500 calories, my projection will not be the same for the two days.
  • skydiveD30571
    skydiveD30571 Posts: 281 Member
    edited January 2016
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    Editme12 wrote: »
    The projection acknowledges that not all calories are created equal- so if you're only 20 calories below goal, yet those calories are all "junk" food, or perhaps high in sodium as the other person suggested, the projection will acknowledge that. I think I've only had it actually say I'll gain weight when I've gone over calorie budget though.

    You don't gain fat simply by eating "junk food", and high-sodium foods will only cause temporary water retention which is very different person to person. The projection has no idea to figure either of those into the numbers. It is based on simple math alone. From a weight gained or lost perspective, all calories are entirely made equal.

    Is your 1,370 calorie goal before or after adding exercise? Do you eat back exercise calories? Are you sure you put in your personal stats correctly? The math is based upon sex/age/weight/height and current calories consumed.
  • janejellyroll
    janejellyroll Posts: 25,763 Member
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    Editme12 wrote: »
    janejellyroll wrote: »

    How does it determine which foods are "junk" foods? I had some days over the holidays where I ate a lot of foods that are commonly labelled "junk," but my projection didn't change.

    Well, from what I've noticed in mine, it depends on things like sugar and fat in addition to just calories. For example, if I eat normal, healthy food totaling 1500 calories and I go to Chili's and end up with 1500 calories, my projection will not be the same for the two days.

    So it isn't really targeting junk food, but the percentages of sugar and fat? So eating a meal with lots of fruit or olive oil cooked at home should throw it off as much as eating at Chili's.

    This would also mean that people on certain types of meal plans (80/10/10 or keto) should regularly see a gain projected for them even when they are below calorie goals. Maybe someone who is on one of these plans and logging food could chime in and see if exceeding goals for sugar or fat results in MFP projecting a gain even when one meets calorie goals for the day.
  • fvtfan
    fvtfan Posts: 126 Member
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    Personally I would just ignore that message - every day is not going to be the same anyway...I think it is a stupid feature
  • callsitlikeiseeit
    callsitlikeiseeit Posts: 8,627 Member
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    ignore it.

    mine has been right once (that i know of)in the past year LOL

    i dont even look at it any more
  • lemurcat12
    lemurcat12 Posts: 30,886 Member
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    Jenna8915 wrote: »
    Anyone else experienced this, or have any idea why it is happening!?

    Unless they've changed it (which I doubt), it should just be math.

    So my question is how you set your goal and if you exercise and don't log it.

    When I did TDEE method, I set a goal of 1600 and did not log exercise (because it was included upfront) and constantly got told I'd gain, or did until I switched my activity level to "active." This was so even though I was losing around 1 lb/week. It's because the way I set my goal was different than MFP's way.

    Anyway, best to ignore the 5 week thing, which is silly.
  • daniwilford
    daniwilford Posts: 1,030 Member
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    lemurcat12 wrote: »
    Jenna8915 wrote: »
    Anyone else experienced this, or have any idea why it is happening!?

    Unless they've changed it (which I doubt), it should just be math.

    So my question is how you set your goal and if you exercise and don't log it.

    When I did TDEE method, I set a goal of 1600 and did not log exercise (because it was included upfront) and constantly got told I'd gain, or did until I switched my activity level to "active." This was so even though I was losing around 1 lb/week. It's because the way I set my goal was different than MFP's way.

    Anyway, best to ignore the 5 week thing, which is silly.

    I hate to see that silly message, because I have never had an identical day let alone 35 in a row. I never click on the finished for the day so I don't have to see that nonsense.
  • Christine_72
    Christine_72 Posts: 16,049 Member
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    janejellyroll wrote: »
    Editme12 wrote: »
    janejellyroll wrote: »

    How does it determine which foods are "junk" foods? I had some days over the holidays where I ate a lot of foods that are commonly labelled "junk," but my projection didn't change.

    Well, from what I've noticed in mine, it depends on things like sugar and fat in addition to just calories. For example, if I eat normal, healthy food totaling 1500 calories and I go to Chili's and end up with 1500 calories, my projection will not be the same for the two days.

    So it isn't really targeting junk food, but the percentages of sugar and fat? So eating a meal with lots of fruit or olive oil cooked at home should throw it off as much as eating at Chili's.

    This would also mean that people on certain types of meal plans (80/10/10 or keto) should regularly see a gain projected for them even when they are below calorie goals. Maybe someone who is on one of these plans and logging food could chime in and see if exceeding goals for sugar or fat results in MFP projecting a gain even when one meets calorie goals for the day.

    I go over my fat goal everyday and I've never had the prediction come back saying I'm going to gain, same thing if I'm way over in sodium. As long as I'm under my calories, it always predicts a loss.

  • AnvilHead
    AnvilHead Posts: 18,344 Member
    edited January 2016
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    Editme12 wrote: »
    The projection acknowledges that not all calories are created equal- so if you're only 20 calories below goal, yet those calories are all "junk" food, or perhaps high in sodium as the other person suggested, the projection will acknowledge that. I think I've only had it actually say I'll gain weight when I've gone over calorie budget though.

    It has nothing to do with any of that. It's an algorithm based upon the number of calories you ate that day and how much exercise you did, and projecting exactly identical caloric intake and exercise every single day for the next five weeks against your calculated TDEE. Basically, it's useless and should be completely ignored.

    As far as that first sentence, you could eat nothing but fast food/junk food every single day and still lose weight if you maintain a caloric deficit. Speaking purely in terms of weight loss, a calorie is a calorie.
  • markrgeary1
    markrgeary1 Posts: 853 Member
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    It's a silly arithmetic statement in a program, nothing more. I'd guess the intent would have been to show the power of 100, 200, 500...calorie a day deficit or surplus, hence the 5 week prediction.
  • Bbeliever215
    Bbeliever215 Posts: 234 Member
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    I think there is a glitch. I pretty much eat the same things and usually it gives me a prediction of losing weight yet today it say I will.gain about 15 lbs. I was under my calorie goal as I didn't eat all my exercise or breastfeeding calories back.
  • Christine_72
    Christine_72 Posts: 16,049 Member
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    Yep, there's definitely a glitch. It wont let me fill out tomorrows diary, fitbit isn't syncing and I cant "like" any comments on my newsfeed. I totally give up today!
  • meganmegaphone
    meganmegaphone Posts: 2 Member
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    The system was down when I checked at around 7pm pst
  • Jenna8915
    Jenna8915 Posts: 17 Member
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    Thank you everyone! I personally think that it must be a glitch, even though it has shown a projected gain for the past 3 days, despite eating healthily under my calorie goal as normal! I will just use the scales to judge progress and ignore the message until i notice a problem with my weight loss!
  • Christine_72
    Christine_72 Posts: 16,049 Member
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    @Jenna8915 Is it working for you today? I just closed yesterday's diary and it predicted a loss.
  • cwolfman13
    cwolfman13 Posts: 41,867 Member
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    Editme12 wrote: »
    The projection acknowledges that not all calories are created equal- so if you're only 20 calories below goal, yet those calories are all "junk" food, or perhaps high in sodium as the other person suggested, the projection will acknowledge that. I think I've only had it actually say I'll gain weight when I've gone over calorie budget though.

    sorry, but MFP isn't that smart, nor does sodium or going over any particular macro or eating junk food result in gaining weight.

    it's a very simplistic algorithm that assumes your calorie intake is going to be exactly the same every single day and that your exercise will be exactly the same every day and predicts your weight in 5 weeks as per the estimated calorie deficit you have that particular day.

    so, if your maintenance calories were 2500 and you ate 2000 calories that particular day, it would estimate a 5 Lb weight loss in 5 weeks if every day was identical to this particular day. if you happened to eat 2250 calories that particular day it would estimate a loss of 2.5 Lbs in 5 weeks.

    not every day is identical to today, so it's really a useless feature IMO.
  • LuckyMe2017
    LuckyMe2017 Posts: 454 Member
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    Do you update your weight loss? If you have sense you started, it's still projecting based on your initial weight.

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