Accuracy of Five-Week Prediction

savvidavvi123
savvidavvi123 Posts: 3 Member
in Health and Weight Loss
Question for those of you who've been on this journey for a significant amount of time-how accurate are the "if everyday were like today, you would weight xyz in 5 weeks!" I always seem to get fantastic-looking numbers but I'm worried that I'm being too optimistic...it would just be nice to know how accurate these predictions are.
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Replies

  • krysty702
    krysty702 Posts: 25 Member
    Mine has never, ever been accurate. It always says I'll lose more weight than I actually would and I actually eat the same amount of calories everyday so it's not like I'm eating poorly to not get to that number :smiley:
  • TimothyFish
    TimothyFish Posts: 4,925 Member
    As far as I can tell, the math is right, but we all have estimation errors in our calories, so it won't work out right.
  • williams969
    williams969 Posts: 2,528 Member
    Not even close for me. Early on, I lost "faster" than the estimate, simply because I had my activity level set too low. Got myself a Fitbit, lost a little more, and now I'm a "lazy" logger. I'd say I'm about 80-90% accurate on food logging, and it shows, lol. Losing only .4lbs/week, not .6-1lb like previously.

    Plus, if say, you eat 150 under goal one day to save up for a treat tomorrow, today's log will say a fantastic number. But tomorrow, you eat 150 over, it's not such a nice number. So, really, unless you're eating precisely the exact thing and doing the same exact activity day in/day out, it's really just an estimate, and not a very personalized one, either.
  • cingle87
    cingle87 Posts: 717 Member
    I pay no attention to them anymore, when I first started I thought it was a good guide but as i got more experince if found them to off to the point I don't even press complete entry for this day so I don't get that message anymore.
  • shadow2soul
    shadow2soul Posts: 7,692 Member
    I don't pay too much attention to it. In fact I rarely press the "complete diary" button.

    Sometimes I will press the button just for fun. I'll write down what it says on my phone calendar and then see where I am when that day comes.

    Currently I have 2 marked for next week. (19)Friday, I have 163.4 (today's weight was 162.4). (20)Saturday I have 161. It will be interesting to see how far off they are.
  • obscuremusicreference
    obscuremusicreference Posts: 1,320 Member
    When I log my exercise (which I rarely do anymore), it tell me I'll lose 16-20 pounds in five weeks. It is impossible for me to lose 4-5 pounds a week now--I didn't even lose like that in the beginning!

    I am losing at the 1.4-a-week my calories are set for (7 pounds in 31 days). When I closed it tonight, it said I would lose a little less than 8 pounds IEDWLT. That sounds right.
  • CinthyN
    CinthyN Posts: 64 Member
    Nah, that's why they're called predictions. Besides, I just treat them as motivation. When you eat well and within your calorie, the number looks very encouraging. If you exceed, well then you make a mental note to do better tomorrow. At the end of the day, what you eat and activities you do on a daily basis is what matters :)
  • RodaRose
    RodaRose Posts: 9,562 Member
    I also treat them as kind of inspirational --- but not real.
  • KarenE86
    KarenE86 Posts: 75 Member
    RodaRose wrote: »
    I also treat them as kind of inspirational --- but not real.

    +1
  • Kalikel
    Kalikel Posts: 9,603 Member
    Not even close.
  • Sued0nim
    Sued0nim Posts: 17,456 Member
    The thing is that the 5 week forecast depends on how much you ate on that specific day - I've found it relatively accurate

    - If I go back 5 weeks from today, based on my current weight - I'm either 1lb over the estimate, 5lbs over or exactly on - depending on the day

    I used to log them on my calendar in the future and they were generally accurate-ish
  • jacksonpt
    jacksonpt Posts: 10,413 Member
    TimothyFish wrote: »
    As far as I can tell, the math is right, but we all have estimation errors in our calories, so it won't work out right.

    That's a pretty good answer.

    Basically what happens is this: We make some estimations, dump those estimations into MFP's profile setup, MFP does some math (that includes some assumptions and a bit of rounding) and spits back a calorie goal for us.

    We do a bunch more estimating about how many calories we eat and how many calories we burn, put those numbers into MFP and we get back a "evaluation" of how we did that day relative to our goal. MFP does some more math, with some more rounding, and pops out an estimation for what we would weigh if every day were like today.

    So ultimately there are 2 things to note here:
    1) few people have 5 weeks straight where every day is like today.
    2) everything is based on massive amounts of estimates. In some cases, those estimates are close, in others they aren't. Put estimate on top of estimate on top of estimate on top of estimate on top of estimate and at some point the predictions will stray from actual.
  • rbfdac
    rbfdac Posts: 1,057 Member
    I press the "complete diary" button every day- I find that seeing that estimated weight go down keeps my motivation up. As far as accuracy, I actually find it quite accurate, but I do tend to net almost the exact same calories every day.
  • ithrowconfetti
    ithrowconfetti Posts: 451 Member
    rabbitjb wrote: »
    The thing is that the 5 week forecast depends on how much you ate on that specific day - I've found it relatively accurate

    - If I go back 5 weeks from today, based on my current weight - I'm either 1lb over the estimate, 5lbs over or exactly on - depending on the day

    I used to log them on my calendar in the future and they were generally accurate-ish

    +1
  • 20yearsyounger
    20yearsyounger Posts: 1,630 Member
    Some days I have big deficits, some days I don't. I just use the projection on my worst day in the last 7 days. It keeps me sane and I usually achieve it.
  • Deps
    Deps Posts: 31 Member
    Mine has never been accurate either. As 20years says, it depends on your deficit differences and can waver violently about 4kgs either way on a day to day basis. I mostly ignore it and am just happy as long as the weight keeps coming off.
  • 47Jacqueline
    47Jacqueline Posts: 6,993 Member
    I ignore it. I vary from day to day so I never know when 5 weeks is.
  • NoelFigart1
    NoelFigart1 Posts: 1,276 Member
    No. My daily intake is never exact!

    That said, my estimates based on averages over weeks and months are pretty damn good.
  • Laurend224
    Laurend224 Posts: 1,748 Member
    I wish! Yesterday's said I would be down 23lbs in 5 weeks. Sure maybe, if I had time for a 6 mile hike everyday and didn't eat back any calories!
  • girlviernes
    girlviernes Posts: 2,402 Member
    Not for me, especially because I think my cal estimates for exercise are way high.
  • katherine_startrek_fan
    katherine_startrek_fan Posts: 425 Member
    Not even close! There are too many variables it doesn't account for.
  • Christine_72
    Christine_72 Posts: 16,049 Member
    It "might" be accurate if you ate the exact same food and calories and do the exact same exercise everyday for 5 weeks. Pretty impossible.
  • SexyKatherine73
    SexyKatherine73 Posts: 221 Member
    I find it heart breaking, to be honest, one day it says I'm going to loose weight. the next day it says I'm going to gain 1k+ it's evil and wrong. they to remove it and have something that says "well done" and other good things
  • NikonPal
    NikonPal Posts: 1,346 Member
    RodaRose wrote: »
    I also treat them as kind of inspirational --- but not real.

    Ditto. I think "that would be nice." Then I just do the math and look at my history for the "real" guesstimate...:)
  • lemurcat12
    lemurcat12 Posts: 30,886 Member
    christinev297 wrote: »
    It "might" be accurate if you ate the exact same food and calories and do the exact same exercise everyday for 5 weeks. Pretty impossible.

    This.

    I had mine set for maintenance without exercise for a while (I don't log exercise). It just told me in 5 weeks I'd be the same and I happily ignored it. Now I'll be down like .2. Who cares? It's wrong.
  • TalyaSolomon
    TalyaSolomon Posts: 1 Member
    I use it as a very rough estimate but I think the bodies a lot more complicated than a simple maths equation in terms of metabolism , water retention , hormones etc that can also contribute to tipping the scales . I also don't believe in eating back exorcise calories unless I actually see visible results on the scale since energy expenditure is even harder to count with accuracy .
  • kristinsnm
    kristinsnm Posts: 67 Member
    Never right for me. I've been essentially stagnant in my weight loss for 13 weeks....but everyday it tells me that I'll be down somewhere between 12-17lbs within the next 5 weeks.....I have learned to not pay attention to it because I do eat that way everyday....and 13 weeks of being stuck has been the result :(
  • EvgeniZyntx
    EvgeniZyntx Posts: 24,208 Member
    Predictions?

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  • walking2running
    walking2running Posts: 140 Member
    Another problem with MFP is that the calculator overrides to 1200, and it does not work with your actual TDEE. Example: My TDEE (non-exercise days) is 1600. To lose 1 pound per week, I'd have to eat within 1100 calories. However, MFP override the number to 1200. If I manually enter 300 calories for exercise, my total allowance increases to 1500, and not 1400. So, the calculation is all wrong for me.

    I'm all for eating a minimum of 1200 calories, but when the calculator gives its users an unrealistic expectation of losing a certain amount, and MFP should at least provide an explanation.
  • firstplace21
    firstplace21 Posts: 5 Member
    Its not inaccurate. Its just that our brains are telling us we've only eaten just a few cookies but in fact we've eaten more.

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