Is MFP weight loss projection accurate?

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archdrafter2015
archdrafter2015 Posts: 2 Member
in Health and Weight Loss
I want feedback on people who have followed the calorie count and have not gone over. Have also continued to eat clean. Is the 5week weight loss that MFP projects accurate? I have not gone over and have eaten clean. I also exercise 6days a week but i am about 15 lbs away from the projected weight. I have lost 4 lbs in the 5 week period. My weight has fluctuated which is normal but it seems for every step forward it goes two steps back. Is muscle gain a factor? I am losing body mass.

Replies

  • malibu927
    malibu927 Posts: 17,565 Member
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    For most people it's inaccurate, as it's saying if you eat exactly that way for the next five weeks.

    What are your stats? How much are you eating and what's your goal? 15 pounds off the projection is quite a lot.
  • ccrdragon
    ccrdragon Posts: 3,366 Member
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    The projection is only going to be spot-on if every day for the next 5 weeks is EXACTLY like today (which ain't going to happen)... they are an approximation at best.
  • kayeroze
    kayeroze Posts: 146 Member
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    I think it would be interesting to take the data for the next 5 weeks (from a starting point) of their projections and see how far off it is from your actual weight.
  • cwolfman13
    cwolfman13 Posts: 41,874 Member
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    It's about the most basic algorithm you could probably do and assumes that everyday will in fact be exactly the same as today...same calories in/same calories out...and that's pretty much impossible. It's just a silly little projection.

    Weight loss is far more complex and numerous variables will make that projections pretty much void.
  • julie_broadhead
    julie_broadhead Posts: 347 Member
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    It has proven to be inaccurate in my experience. My weight loss was not linear. I'd plateau then drop 5lb, then plateau again then drop 2lb ect. Through that I just kept weighing and measuring my food and logging everything. Patience with the process pays off!
  • archdrafter2015
    archdrafter2015 Posts: 2 Member
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    Thanks everyone for your feedback. This gives me a better feel about the whole projected weight. I'll have to ignore that and keep on at it. And yes i do agree it would be impossible to meet the projected weight unless i eat exactly the same everyday.
  • CoolBoyMom6
    CoolBoyMom6 Posts: 10 Member
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    Ha..for me no. It says I will gain weight if I eat what I do everyday. I have been losing.
  • AnvilHead
    AnvilHead Posts: 18,344 Member
    edited May 2017
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    It's not accurate in the least, for several reasons:

    1) We don't eat the exact same amount (take in the same amount of calories) every day.

    2) We don't move the exact same amount (expend same amount of calories) every day.

    3) Water retention levels fluctuate for a number of reasons (sodium intake, exercise, hydration status, hormones, alcohol intake, medications, etc.)

    4) Weight loss in and of itself is not a linear process. Even if you could hypothetically nail down the exact same intake and expenditure every day, you still wouldn't lose the exact same amount of weight day to day, week to week, month to month.
  • abarkat2020
    abarkat2020 Posts: 1 Member
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    I'm using MFpal for 25days, and it says you lost 95LBS in the profile, but on the scale, I just lost 3 Lbs. Is the 95Lbs accurate?
  • NorthCascades
    NorthCascades Posts: 10,970 Member
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    It is absolutely 100% accurate and never wrong, as long as you follow the many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics and grant that MFP may be describing a different world than the one we inhabit.

    It depends how much you eat between now and when you're talking about. The future is unknown and the MFP algorithm doesn't have a crystal ball.

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